Newsday: Anders Lee a Victim of Islanders' Numbers Crunch

[Darth Milbury]

3.3 million is not a large contract, I'm not sure why everyone seems to think that's the case. He's on par with other people at his production level.

.

3.3 million X 5 years is a heck of a lot of money for an 8 goal scorer.


I would actually say the length is a lot more scary to other Gms than the $.

I also think you'd have a hard time finding a lot of teams in the league with that much disposable payroll and cap room right now. And, just as a hint, EDM would not be one of those teams.

 

[Darth Milbury]

That's quite the change to Staple's tune, earlier this summer, he responded to Dreger's tweet about other GMs saying "Josh Bailey is a trade target" stating that "Garth Snow could easily dump Bailey for little return." Kind of odd that a few preseason games later, and now Bailey's gone from easily tradeable for a minor return to wouldn't be taken on waivers.

Links to the tweets:
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/481437929764425729
https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/481468166267080706

So, are you saying the trade market at the deadline is identical to the trade market in the preseason/early going?

 

[Seph]

So, are you saying the trade market at the deadline is identical to the trade market in the preseason/early going?

Of course not, but those posts are from the offseason, not the deadline. And while value can change in that time as well, it's unusual to change that much during the course of a single offseason.

 

[Darth Milbury]

Of course not, but those posts are from the offseason, not the deadline. And while value can change in that time as well, it's unusual to change that much during the course of a single offseason.

I don't think it is that usual at all. By this time in the year, teams have filled out their rosters, are close to the cap, and have stretched their payroll. A guy who might have attracted attention in June could clear waivers now.

Look at Brennan. Obviously got a one-way deal on free agent frenzy day and then clears waivers a short-while later.

 

[PK Cronin]

3.3 million X 5 years is a heck of a lot of money for an 8 goal scorer.


I would actually say the length is a lot more scary to other Gms than the $.

I also think you'd have a hard time finding a lot of teams in the league with that much disposable payroll and cap room right now. And, just as a hint, EDM would not be one of those teams.

Yeah, because 30 assists means nothing. You know he's 39th for wingers in assists? I guess that's just too damn low to make 3.3 million. The cap is going up, his contract length and amount is fine. I just provided nearly 40 guys in the same area as him...but you'll just keep on coming up with new nonsense to throw at it.

You're harping on one category, where I've provided a number of categories he's good or acceptable at, when are you going to stop trying to make him and his contract seem worse than it is?

 

[nthill93]

So who do you guys think we should/could get in a trade for Bailey?

 

[boredmale]

So who do you guys think we should/could get in a trade for Bailey?

Now is a terrible time to try make a trade since most teams rosters are set or if they need a player they can just pick somebody on waivers.

I am guessing we can squeeze a 3rd out of somebody if we really wanted to trade him(4th otherwise), give it a month or 2 when teams are having injury problem we might be able to get a low 2nd

 

[Darth Milbury]

Yeah, because 30 assists means nothing. You know he's 39th for wingers in assists? I guess that's just too damn low to make 3.3 million. The cap is going up, his contract length and amount is fine. I just provided nearly 40 guys in the same area as him...but you'll just keep on coming up with new nonsense to throw at it.

You're harping on one category, where I've provided a number of categories he's good or acceptable at, when are you going to stop trying to make him and his contract seem worse than it is?

Goalscoring is more than "just one category." Its probably the single most significant determinant of a player's market value.


And, you might well be able to move a player who is a much better playmaker than a goal scorer, but you still need to have some modest ability to score goals. Eight goals is, quite frankly, pathetic output for a forward whose primary contribution is offense. Bailey is not particularly physical and his not excellent defensively (not bad defensively, but not good enough to make his living as a defensive forward). He was drafted as an offensive forward, he's just not particularly good in that role.


His contract is way worse than you are making it out to be. 3.3 X 5 is unmovable for a guy with his meh performance, long slumps, and general inconsistency. I'll bet that, if you went through that long list of guys with similar performance, you wouldn't find many guys with that length deal and the ones you did find would bring components that Bailey doesn't (more grit or better defensive skills, for example).

 

[Darth Milbury]

So who do you guys think we should/could get in a trade for Bailey?

Nothing. I don't believe he is moveable at all. I think he has negative value.

If he turns it around and puts up decent numbers to start (or elevates his defensive game), things will be different.


No point in trading him, IMO.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Now is a terrible time to try make a trade since most teams rosters are set or if they need a player they can just pick somebody on waivers.

I am guessing we can squeeze a 3rd out of somebody if we really wanted to trade him(4th otherwise), give it a month or 2 when teams are having injury problem we might be able to get a low 2nd

When did we trade for Vanek?

 

[PK Cronin]

Goalscoring is more than "just one category." Its probably the single most significant determinant of a player's market value.


And, you might well be able to move a player who is a much better playmaker than a goal scorer, but you still need to have some modest ability to score goals. Eight goals is, quite frankly, pathetic output for a forward whose primary contribution is offense. Bailey is not particularly physical and his not excellent defensively (not bad defensively, but not good enough to make his living as a defensive forward). He was drafted as an offensive forward, he's just not particularly good in that role.

Point totals are also used to determine market value. He's 24, defensively responsible, has playmaking ability, has been trending upwards in terms of point totals, but I guess that's not a good enough for someone to pick him up for nothing. At his worst he's a 30+ point player.

His contract is way worse than you are making it out to be. 3.3 X 5 is unmovable for a guy with his meh performance, long slumps, and general inconsistency. I'll bet that, if you went through that long list of guys with similar performance, you wouldn't find many guys with that length deal and the ones you did find would bring components that Bailey doesn't (more grit or better defensive skills, for example).

Rather than just betting and guessing, you could actually do the research and tell me which players don't have long deals. I provided a substantial list of guys who make the same amount, with similar production values and he fits in there. Not to mention that the cap is going up and he only has 4 more years left on his deal (including this season) so it's really not terrible at all.

 

[Darth Milbury]

Point totals are also used to determine market value. He's 24, defensively responsible, has playmaking ability, has been trending upwards in terms of point totals, but I guess that's not a good enough for someone to pick him up for nothing. At his worst he's a 30+ point player..

He's a good playmaker, and that's it. In all other aspects of the game he is either average (defensive skills) or well below average (goal scoring).

Rather than just betting and guessing, you could actually do the research and tell me which players don't have long deals. I provided a substantial list of guys who make the same amount, with similar production values and he fits in there. Not to mention that the cap is going up and he only has 4 more years left on his deal (including this season) so it's really not terrible at all.

I might not have an interest in going through your list of 40 names and looking up their contracts. And, convincing you is not high on my list either - mainly because I think the cold realities of the situation will eventually be clear to you.

However, if that is something you would enjoy doing, by all means. That's not to say that I don't respect the time you put into that little project. I just have other things I'd rather do.

By all means, list the guys with 4 years left on their contract, who have similar performance to Josh Bailey and who aren't significantly stronger in other facets of the game (i.e., physical or defensive skills). You keep telling me that his contract is typical for guys of this ilk. Prove it.

 

[PK Cronin]

He's a good playmaker, and that's it. In all other aspects of the game he is either average (defensive skills) or well below average (goal scoring).

He's above average defensively, just an fyi.

I might not have an interest in going through your list of 40 names and looking up their contracts. And, convincing you is not high on my list either - mainly because I think the cold realities of the situation will eventually be clear to you.

However, if that is something you would enjoy doing, by all means. That's not to say that I don't respect the time you put into that little project. I just have other things I'd rather do.

By all means, list the guys with 4 years left on their contract, who have similar performance to Josh Bailey and who aren't significantly stronger in other facets of the game (i.e., physical or defensive skills). You keep telling me that his contract is typical for guys of this ilk. Prove it.

So you'll debate as long as you don't need to provide proof for what you're saying.

 

[Darth Milbury]

He's above average defensively, just an fyi. .

Your opinion, which I don't agree with. I think he is no better than average on most nights.

So you'll debate as long as you don't need to provide proof for what you're saying.

You were the one who claimed that his contract length and payroll were typical of players of his ilk. I'm calling you out on that now. Prove it. List the players with less than 10 goals, who are nonphysical, and have 4 year deals of 3 million or more.

For kicks and giggles, here is a list of "comparables " on NHLSCAP:

http://capgeek.com/comparables/?player_id=1084&year_id=2014

Of the guys on that list there is exactly ONE player with a contract length and payroll similar to Bailey - Stajan. The only other guy with a similar hit and cap length (Turris) is a VASTLY superior player.

You're simply incorrect in your assumption that his contract is very similar to players who are his level.

 

[PK Cronin]

Your opinion, which I don't agree with. I think he is no better than average on most nights.

You were the one who claimed that his contract length and payroll were typical of players of his ilk. I'm calling you out on that now. Prove it. List the players with less than 10 goals, who are nonphysical, and have 4 year deals of 3 million or more.

I provided a list of players who make the same amount of money as he does, and he's right on par or better than all of them in terms of overall production. I'm not going back through the list to pick out guys who are nonphysical and scored less than 10 goals. It's irrelevant. Points have value, assists have value, defense has value, and harping on the length of his deal is helping my case as the cap is going up...making it a better contract with each passing season. I've done most of the work and have proved what I set out to, it's your turn.

Interesting that somehow physicality has jumped up above assists in terms of importance now, since it fits your argument.

 

[PK Cronin]

For kicks and giggles, here is a list of "comparables " on NHLSCAP:

http://capgeek.com/comparables/?player_id=1084&year_id=2014

Of the guys on that list there is exactly ONE player with a contract length and payroll similar to Bailey - Stajan. The only other guy with a similar hit and cap length (Turris) is a VASTLY superior player.

You're simply incorrect in your assumption that his contract is very similar to players who are his level.

Bourque, Hanzal, Turris, Tanguay, Gaustad, Stajan, Desharnais, Upshall are all right there with him in terms of length. Then there are the shorter contracts that started later.

 

[Strome18]

No they wouldn't. Edm would not want to be sick work an 8 goal scorer on a multi-year 3+ million deal.

Yes they would, because they need a center/LW that can play better D.

There youngings are all points but not much in the D department.

He would shine there in a low key atmosphere.

 

[PK Cronin]

I'd like to shift gears back to Lee, since I've derailed this enough. How many games would you give Conacher if he struggles before you call up Lee?

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Yes they would, because they need a center/LW that can play better D.

There youngings are all points but not much in the D department.

He would shine there in a low key atmosphere.

Seems like an obvious fit if a trade were to happen. He'd be a great second line center for them.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

I'd like to shift gears back to Lee, since I've derailed this enough. How many games would you give Conacher if he struggles before you call up Lee?

Define struggles though. Could it be just not producing enough or is it more a matter of not adding a third element to that line?

 

[PK Cronin]

Define struggles though. Could it be just not producing enough or is it more a matter of not adding a third element to that line?

If they aren't clicking, so there aren't as many chances as we're used to. If you prefer to define it in your own terms, by all means go ahead. Interested to see where people fall in this.

 

[Darth Milbury]

I'd like to shift gears back to Lee, since I've derailed this enough. How many games would you give Conacher if he struggles before you call up Lee?

Fair enough. I did appreciate your effort though, and I don't want you to feel disrespected (argued with the opinion, not discounting the poster).


My concern with Conacher is that we'll have another Moulson/PAP on our hands. In other words, he'll get the job done in terms of numbers because it is pretty hard to NOT score playing with KO and JT. However, that doesn't mean he is the best option there longterm.

 

[MaryChristine*]

Fair enough. I did appreciate your effort though, and I don't want you to feel disrespected (argued with the opinion, not discounting the poster).


My concern with Conacher is that we'll have another Moulson/PAP on our hands. In other words, he'll get the job done in terms of numbers because it is pretty hard to NOT score playing with KO and JT. However, that doesn't mean he is the best option there longterm.

My Concern is Cappy gets a super long leash and then a lot of people with be put in positions they don't deserve. Countless stupid mistakes with this guy..

 

[Strome18]

Seems like an obvious fit if a trade were to happen. He'd be a great second line center for them.

exactly. Maybe we could get some picks from them. Like a 2nd, 3rd...I do not know.

 

[Darth Milbury]

My Concern is Cappy gets a super long leash and then a lot of people with be put in positions they don't deserve. Countless stupid mistakes with this guy..

I wish I could say I don't share your fears here, but this is EXACTLY what happened with Regin and PMB. Heck, it happened with PAP too (who was horrible in his first year).