Newsday: Anders Lee a Victim of Islanders' Numbers Crunch

[scott99]

Why would you root for players to have bad seasons just so another player could get into the lineup? Are you a real Islanders fan? That's almost as bad as hoping someone gets injured.

Not really rooting for them to have bad seasons, but I wouldn't be upset if they get replaced with Grabner and Lee. It's sorta like how much I hated having Bouchard and Regin on the team when bot Strome and Lee outperformed them, yet got ****ed over in lieu of those two detriments to the team.

You can question my fandom if you like (most people who know me don't need to do that, they know how much of a fan I am), But I in turn question Cappy as a coach as he keeps McDonald, Bailey, Boulton and Conacher over a more talented and deserving Lee.

 

[OlTimeHockey]

Not really rooting for them to have bad seasons, but I wouldn't be upset if they get replaced with Grabner and Lee. It's sorta like how much I hated having Bouchard and Regin on the team when bot Strome and Lee outperformed them, yet got ****ed over in lieu of those two detriments to the team.

You can question my fandom if you like (most people who know me don't need to do that, they know how much of a fan I am), But I in turn question Cappy as a coach as he keeps McDonald, Bailey, Boulton and Conacher over a more talented and deserving Lee.

If Bailey were kept up because Grabner's D was missing and Lee was slotted to replace any underperformer when the team's initial success faded - akin to an energy injection should the Isles start hot with Halak, our real defensemen and new second liners and start to fade with a cold Conacher/Bailey/??? or injury - this is a smart tactic that allows Lee to grow with less pressure.

Don't just look at stats. Maybe psyche plays a role. Maybe this was the strongest option possible while taking a gamble on a talented Conacher and a disappointing Bailey initially while a bull in the works Anders Lee is ready to steal their jobs in time.

This is a good place to be as a franchise. It feels like a DRW kid who is breaking down the door to get on the team. This is the Islanders facing this problem. That's a great feeling!

 

[charlie1]

For everyone saying, "just play the best guys, don't worry about waivers":

Let's say you're the GM. Going into the season you can set up your team in one of two ways:

1) Your team has a 80% chance of winning when the team is fully healthy, and a 50% chance of winning when someone is hurt.

OR

2) Your team has a 70% chance of winning when the team is fully healthy, and a 80% chance of winning when someone is hurt.

Which do you choose?

 

[neksys]

I don't understand why there is all this hand-wringing about Conacher. The guy can score - he was the MVP/leading goal scorer in AHL before moving to the NHL, where he piled up more points in Tampa Bay.

Then he finds himself in Ottawa playing 10 minutes a night on the 3rd line.

Point is, the guy has a ton of upside and no shortage of guys who can push him out of that spot (and probably out of the NHL). We know he's got skill, now he's got a hell of a lot of motivation.

And if he falters, big deal.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Ryan Strome led the AHL in points. Anders Lee never did that. Anders Lee's small body of NHL work is very impressive, but it's still very small and shouldn't be weighed more than Strome's larger history of success.

And Jeff Tambellini once won the Brett Hull award.

It is all about, "What have you done for me lately?" Well, normally it is. Not this time though, which is what has me wondering what's going on behind the curtain.

 

[PK Cronin]

It's the GM.

However, if no one claims Bailey (most likely), he'll earn $1+ million a year in Bridgeport as he is on an NHL contract.

It sucks for Lee, but with injuries and such, he'll likely be recalled within 20 games.

Why are you talking about Bailey being claimed? He's not on waivers...

Wrong. Bailey would pass through waivers easily. That's why he's on the team. Once you waive him and send him down, it's officially 100% dead money.

I think Grabner is likely to be dealt, and that will be the end of the numbers game.

Bailey would be claimed, you'd be foolish to think otherwise. Someone would have a need for a defensive forward who is in the middle of the pack in scoring, with the potential to improve with a change of scenery.

The optimal strategy is to maximize your on-ice talent over the entire season, not just the first game.

They don't understand that. Just the same as they don't understanding spreading talent throughout the lineup, instead of giving Tavares the best players on the roster to play with so he can get 10 more points a season.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Bailey would be claimed, you'd be foolish to think otherwise. Someone would have a need for a defensive forward who is in the middle of the pack in scoring, with the potential to improve with a change of scenery.

He can play center. I would think Edmonton would surely want to claim him to play center.

I could see Vancouver claiming him. Buffalo. Toronto.

Anyone without cap "trouble".

Chicago would be a GREAT fit, but they have cap problems so they'd be out.

 

[Darth Milbury]

Why are you talking about Bailey being claimed? He's not on waivers...



Bailey would be claimed, you'd be foolish to think otherwise. Someone would have a need for a defensive forward who is in the middle of the pack in scoring, with the potential to improve with a change of scenery.



They don't understand that. Just the same as they don't understanding spreading talent throughout the lineup, instead of giving Tavares the best players on the roster to play with so he can get 10 more points a season.

Well, than Dan is not the only "fool" here. I'm a fool too. I think he would clear rather easily. In the era of the salary cap, there aren't teams lining up to throw over 3 million a year on a multiyear deal to an 8 goal scorer who disappears for long stretches and is not particularly gritty or involved physically.


And, some other fairly knowledgeable observers, like Arthur Staple are also fools. Staple has tweeted on multiple occasions that Bailey would easily clear.


Staple is not a deity, and I'm not somebody who is as knowledgeable as Dan-016 or half the other posters here. But, there is no reason to call somebody "foolish" simply because they are pessimistic about a player's appeal to other teams. And, in this case, the foolish Dan is most likely correct.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Well, than Dan is not the only "fool" here. I'm a fool too. I think he would clear rather easily. In the era of the salary cap, there aren't teams lining up to throw over 3 million a year on a multiyear deal to an 8 goal scorer who disappears for long stretches and is not particularly gritty or involved physically.


And, some other fairly knowledgeable observers, like Arthur Staple are also fools. Staple has tweeted on multiple occasions that Bailey would easily clear.


Staple is not a deity, and I'm not somebody who is as knowledgeable as Dan-016 or half the other posters here. But, there is no reason to call somebody "foolish" simply because they are pessimistic about a player's appeal to other teams. And, in this case, the foolish Dan is most likely correct.

You think Edmonton passes on Bailey? He has scored 0.5 ppg for the last two seasons and is a plus corsi player.

His contract is commensurate with Renee Bourque...

 

[PK Cronin]

Well, than Dan is not the only "fool" here. I'm a fool too. I think he would clear rather easily. In the era of the salary cap, there aren't teams lining up to throw over 3 million a year on a multiyear deal to an 8 goal scorer who disappears for long stretches and is not particularly gritty or involved physically.


And, some other fairly knowledgeable observers, like Arthur Staple are also fools. Staple has tweeted on multiple occasions that Bailey would easily clear.


Staple is not a deity, and I'm not somebody who is as knowledgeable as Dan-016 or half the other posters here. But, there is no reason to call somebody "foolish" simply because they are pessimistic about a player's appeal to other teams. And, in this case, the foolish Dan is most likely correct.

There's a clear difference between what I said and calling someone an outright fool, sorry you can't see that.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Plagiarism!!!

After I posted I read the thread and thought to myself "HEY! That's what I said!!!"

 

[Darth Milbury]

You think Edmonton passes on Bailey? He has scored 0.5 ppg for the last two seasons and is a plus corsi player.

His contract is commensurate with Renee Bourque...

I think Bourque would clear rather easily too. Ditto Versteeg, Scuderi, and all the other big contract guys who aren't producing at a high enough level to justify their deals.


Even Grabner, whose career was in even worse shape than Josh B., did not get claimed by several of the teams who picked before us.


NHL teams are rarely willing to take a flyer on guys who may or may not put it together when they have large contracts.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I think Bourque would clear rather easily too. Ditto Versteeg, Scuderi, and all the other big contract guys who aren't producing at a high enough level to justify their deals.


Even Grabner, whose career was in even worse shape than Josh B., did not get claimed by several of the teams who picked before us.


NHL teams are rarely willing to take a flyer on guys who may or may not put it together when they have large contracts.

Yeah, but with Edmonton's need for a center... Just makes so much sense.

 

[Darth Milbury]

Bailey is not a center. Hasn't played that role in years.

The rumor this summer was that they turned down Bailey for Gagner, and then dealt Gagner for basically nothing.

that should tell us how highly that value Bailey.

And, btw, Bailey's cap hit is 3.3 million, which is about what EDM has left toward the cap. IF they acquired Bailey the would not be able to make any callups in the event of a short-term injury, or be able to acquire other players in trades.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Bailey is not a center. Hasn't played that role in years.

He's not a center with the Islanders, but he was a center and could certainly be a center again. His defense is certainly good enough.

 

[PK Cronin]

I think Bourque would clear rather easily too. Ditto Versteeg, Scuderi, and all the other big contract guys who aren't producing at a high enough level to justify their deals.


Even Grabner, whose career was in even worse shape than Josh B., did not get claimed by several of the teams who picked before us.


NHL teams are rarely willing to take a flyer on guys who may or may not put it together when they have large contracts.

3.3 million is not a large contract, I'm not sure why everyone seems to think that's the case. He's on par with other people at his production level.

Brouwer makes 3.6 million and he put up 43 points last season.
Read makes 3.625 and he put up 40 points last season.
Kelly makes 3 million and he put up 18 points last season.
Sutter makes 3.3 million and he put up 26 points last season.
Bickell makes 4 million and he put up 15 points last season.
Stoll makes 3.25 million and he put up 27 points last season.
Williams makes 3.65 million and he put up 43 points last season.
Peverly makes 3.25 million and he put up 30 points last season.
Hemsky makes 4 million and he put up 43 points last season.
Briere makes 4 million and he put up 25 points last season.
Berglund makes 3.7 million and he put up 32 points last season.
Burrows makes 4.5 million and he put up 15 points last season.
Gordon makes 3 million and he put up 21 points last season.
Pouliot makes 4 million and he put up 36 points last season.
Purcell makes 4.5 million and he put up 42 points last season.
Borque makes 3.3 million and he put up 16 points last season.
Eller makes 3.5 million and he put up 26 points last season.
Zubrus makes 3.1 million and he put up 26 points last season.
Ryder makes 3.5 million and he put up 34 points last season.
Rutuu makes 3.8 million and he put up 24 points last season.
Kopecky makes 3 million and he put up 12 points last season.
Upshall makes 3.5 million and he put up 37 points last season.
Anisimov makes 3.2 million and he put up 39 points last season.
Foligno makes 3 million and he put up 39 points last season.
Cogliano makes 3 million and he put up 42 points last season.
Pearreault makes 3 million and he put up 43 points last season.
Frolik makes 3.3 million and he put up 42 points last season.
Stalberg makes 3 million and he put up 18 points last season.
Gaustad makes 3.25 million and he put up 21 points last season.
Cullen makes 3.5 million and he put up 39 points last season.
Stafford makes 4 million and he put up 34 points last season.
Gagner makes 3.2 million and he put up 37 points last season.
Hanzal makes 3.1 million and he put up 40 points last season.
Vermette makes 3.75 million and he put up 45 points last season.
Stajan makes 3.125 million and he put up 33 points last season.
Raymond makes 3.15 million and he put up 45 points last season.



So if Bailey's contract is so bad, there are at least 30+ other horribad contracts. Most of those seasons are full or comparable seasons to the GP's for Bailey. There are a few that dealt with injuries, like Peverly. I'm not saying there aren't guys below this salary that don't outproduce these guys, because there are, but this is just showing that he is right on par with other guys who have been in the league a bit with similar production values. I tried to only look at guys who were comparable stat-wise who made 3 million + and below 4 million in most cases (there are a few teams that have nobody making in the 3 million range so I went up a little bit). The point is, teams don't mind this kind of contract if they think there is an upside.

 

[ScaredStreit]

Ryan Strome led the AHL in points. Anders Lee never did that. Anders Lee's small body of NHL work is very impressive, but it's still very small and shouldn't be weighed more than Strome's larger history of success.

Jason Krog was an AHL superstar. Look at his stats. Should the Islanders sign him?

edit: And I heard your same exact argument about Tambellini for a LONG time. Even though it was obvious he was NEVER going to be a good NHL player (and yes I did state that back then).

 

[bstash19]

bailey would not clear waivers. a team would take a chance on a defensively responsible player with a manageable cap hit, who under the right circumstances (chance of scenery alone could do it), could become better than the .5ppg player he currently is.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Bailey is not a center. Hasn't played that role in years.

The rumor this summer was that they turned down Bailey for Gagner, and then dealt Gagner for basically nothing.

that should tell us how highly that value Bailey.

And, btw, Bailey's cap hit is 3.3 million, which is about what EDM has left toward the cap. IF they acquired Bailey the would not be able to make any callups in the event of a short-term injury, or be able to acquire other players in trades.

He also has an escalating salary. The cap hit alone might scare off some of the other 29 teams, but it will certainly scare off all the internal budget teams.

 

[Tavares2TheRescue]

Jason Krog was an AHL superstar. Look at his stats. Should the Islanders sign him?

edit: And I heard your same exact argument about Tambellini for a LONG time. Even though it was obvious he was NEVER going to be a good NHL player (and yes I did state that back then).

And I've heard your argument about valuing players based off of a good stretch of little more than 20 games. So where's Michael Grabner, perennial 40 goal scorer? Just because Lee's been a little better (and both have been good) in a very small sample size of NHL games doesn't mean you can just throw away the fact that Strome has outperformed Lee in every other facet of their careers.

 

[Seph]

Well, than Dan is not the only "fool" here. I'm a fool too. I think he would clear rather easily. In the era of the salary cap, there aren't teams lining up to throw over 3 million a year on a multiyear deal to an 8 goal scorer who disappears for long stretches and is not particularly gritty or involved physically.


And, some other fairly knowledgeable observers, like Arthur Staple are also fools. Staple has tweeted on multiple occasions that Bailey would easily clear.


Staple is not a deity, and I'm not somebody who is as knowledgeable as Dan-016 or half the other posters here. But, there is no reason to call somebody "foolish" simply because they are pessimistic about a player's appeal to other teams. And, in this case, the foolish Dan is most likely correct.

That's quite the change to Staple's tune, earlier this summer, he responded to Dreger's tweet about other GMs saying "Josh Bailey is a trade target" stating that "Garth Snow could easily dump Bailey for little return." Kind of odd that a few preseason games later, and now Bailey's gone from easily tradeable for a minor return to wouldn't be taken on waivers.

Links to the tweets:
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/481437929764425729
https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/481468166267080706

 

[BroadwayJay*]

That's quite the change to Staple's tune, earlier this summer, he responded to Dreger's tweet about other GMs saying "Josh Bailey is a trade target" stating that "Garth Snow could easily dump Bailey for little return." Kind of odd that a few preseason games later, and now Bailey's gone from easily tradeable for a minor return to wouldn't be taken on waivers.

Links to the tweets:
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/481437929764425729
https://twitter.com/StapeNewsday/status/481468166267080706

 

[LAPPY13]

I understand why Islander fans don't like the idea of Cory Conacher being on our 1st line but I got to say in all fairness he is only 24 years old and has been in the NHL for ONLY TWO YEARS! The kid tore apart the AHL as a first year pro(very hard to do that) than was playing great as a rookie with Tampa Bay. Conacher was so hot that the Sens traded a top level goalie in Bishop for him. I know he did not do much with the Sens and with Buffalo but again he is only 24 and has been in the NHL for TWO YEARS!(Most NHL players struggle in there first few seasons) The kid has talent and he proved that with Tampa as a rookie. I think with the opportunity the Isles are giving him on the 1st line there is a VERY GOOD CHANCE HE WILL PREFORM like he did with Stamkos in Tampa.

The kid reminds me of Jason Blake and I think if given a chance we Islander fans might really like what he brings to the table.

 

[ndgolden]

And I've heard your argument about valuing players based off of a good stretch of little more than 20 games. So where's Michael Grabner, perennial 40 goal scorer? Just because Lee's been a little better (and both have been good) in a very small sample size of NHL games doesn't mean you can just throw away the fact that Strome has outperformed Lee in every other facet of their careers.

Except the only level that matters. NHL

 

[herecomesdabus]

Its good to have some competition but too many bodies can also hurt the team and possibly hurt a player's development....Reminds me of players like Weinhandle and Pappineu...they were never given a fair shake...young players who would only get 3 or 4mins a game....They had oodles of talent but ended up becoming busts...

Anders Lee should be up with the Isles...The Isles need to make the tough decisions even if it means waiving a few players...on defense IMO Donovan needs to be waived even if it means that he gets claimed....For this reason I totally understand why Nino Niederreiter asked to be traded and is now fast becoming a super-star in the NHL....Niederreiter protected his career!...Snow and Capuono need to settle the roster...especially if they want the team to gell and have a fast start....WAKE-UP AND STOP MESSING AROUND...IT'S VERY UNLIKELY THEY CAN MOVE FORWARD WITHOUT LOSING A FEW PLAYERS ON WAIVERS...THE LONGER THE ROSTER STAYS UNSETTLED...THERE MORE LIKELY THE TEAM MAY HAVE A BAD START...