Analyzing Dubas's performance - (Full Analysis)

[Byron Bitz]

The Matthews contract il give him a pass because there was threat of an offer sheet from Arizona. Marner contract was terrible negotiating by Dubas. He could have played hardball and got Marner at 9.5 for 7 years. I hate that we are paying way more than our division rivals for comparable players.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I also think Shanahan should have stepped in and blocked the Marner contract, I guarantee you that’s what Cam Neely would have done in Boston if his GM tried to give an RFA an above market contract like that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner should have been signed earlier when the option presented itself and Matthews should always have gone last.

There is no evidence that the option to sign Marner at a reasonable price existed at that time. Getting Matthews signed prior to July 1st was the #1 priority, regardless of the order.

Caving on Nylander really set everything going in the wrong direction.

Dubas did not "cave" on Nylander. Quite the opposite. He held firm, and Nylander had to call Dubas up and accept in the very end, to avoid missing the season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Matthews contract il give him a pass because there was threat of an offer sheet from Arizona. Marner contract was terrible negotiating by Dubas.

Both were offer sheet threats. This doesn't make any sense.

He could have played hardball and got Marner at 9.5 for 7 years.

He did play hardball, and no, nobody could have.

I hate that we are paying way more than our division rivals for comparable players.

We're paying more for better players.

 

[ACC1224]

The Matthews contract il give him a pass because there was threat of an offer sheet from Arizona. Marner contract was terrible negotiating by Dubas. He could have played hardball and got Marner at 9.5 for 7 years. I hate that we are paying way more than our division rivals for comparable players.

Matthews wasn't eligible to receive an Offer Sheet like Marner was.
He could have brought Marner in at that amount or lower had he signed him before Matthews.
Marner would have used Nylander as the internal comparable instead of Matthews and Tavares.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Both were offer sheet threats. This doesn't make any sense.

He did play hardball, and no, nobody could have.

We're paying more for better players.

Marner was not an offer sheet threat, teams know the amount they would have to overpay Marner for us to not match wouldn’t be worth giving up the 4 1st round picks, it was worth it to Arizona with Matthews because he would have been their local franchise saving hero. Marners best comparable during these negotiations was Rantanen who ended up getting 9.25

 

[hotpaws]

Because they signed before him and Pasta got hosed. Kucherov had his huge year after the contract signing. Kucherov took a great deal at the time. Pasta’s contract was discussed very negatively at the time. Funny how salary escalation works isn’t it. You should study salary esculation. You ignore it completely in your criticism or attempts at criticizing everything contracts. If you are going to question contracts you might be percieved as sincere if you ever become sincere

I can’t wait to come back and talk about Pastas contract when he is coming up for renewals before Marner and Nylander.

yup i've decided it's waste of time trying to have a honest discussion with the GM supporters so i'm just going to follow there lead and ignore and spin facts to prove my point

if the Dubas supporters can ignore the length of the deals , whether the players are ufa or rfa's , can pick and choose what criteria they use to compare deals - goals per 60 for AM - total points for MM etc, then i'll do the same and save myself the aggravation from constantly having to correct them

 

[4thline]

Marner was not an offer sheet threat, teams know the amount they would have to overpay Marner for us to not match wouldn’t be worth giving up the 4 1st round picks, it was worth it to Arizona with Matthews because he would have been their local franchise saving hero. Marners best comparable during these negotiations was Rantanen who ended up getting 9.25

The offersheet threat for Marner was very real
we were negotiating against the fact that pretty much any team in the league would give up 1st+2nd+3rd to for three years at 8.4 expiring to RFA, and some teams would likely go 9-10+ x 5 for 1st+1st+2nd+3rd.

We could fit it now but getting the 6th year to avoid blowing up the team mid Tavares contract was crucial.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner was not an offer sheet threat

Marner was an offer sheet threat.

teams know the amount they would have to overpay Marner for us to not match wouldn’t be worth giving up the 4 1st round picks

Marner is more valuable than four average 1st round picks. Also, over 10.6m was the point where it became four 1sts.
10.6m x 5 was a legitimate threat, and would have been worse than Marner's current contract.

Marners best comparable during these negotiations was Rantanen who ended up getting 9.25

Marner was significantly better than Rantanen.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews wasn't eligible to receive an Offer Sheet like Marner was.
He could have brought Marner in at that amount or lower had he signed him before Matthews.
Marner would have used Nylander as the internal comparable instead of Matthews and Tavares.

You have no idea what would have happened under your made-up scenarios, and your sequence of events doesn't make any sense.

Nylander didn't sign until December 2018. Marner refused to signed mid-season. If Marner was to use Nylander as a basis (which wouldn't have changed much), that would mean signing him after Matthews unless the Leafs nonsensically allowed Matthews to get to offer sheet status for no reason.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

yup i've decided it's waste of time trying to have a honest discussion with the GM supporters so i'm just going to follow there lead and ignore and spin facts to prove my point

if the Dubas supporters can ignore the length of the deals , whether the players are ufa or rfa's , can pick and choose what criteria they use to compare deals - goals per 60 for AM - total points for MM etc, then i'll do the same and save myself the aggravation from constantly having to correct them

I don’t ignore anything. I view the work as a whole. Some things I don’t like also you know! I don’t like 7 and eight year deal. I would prefer Matthews had a 6th year on his deal. I don’t like no trade or no movement clauses on RFA contracts. I understand it for Tavares. Marner and Matthews both have them after the 22/23 seasons for some reason! I would not have given them to either and that’s important to stand for if it becomes possible you can’t convince them not to test the UFA market. I don’t see anyone bring that part of the contracts up. Modified no trade clauses should be the maximum afforded player and agents. Willy has a modified Ntc and thats fine. I also hate the Kadri deal in many ways. All ways actually.
I don’t interpret NMC’s as intention of staying. It causes fluidity movement of assets problems is all i boil them down to. I didn’t like Hutch being afforded as much confidence. He hurt us to long. Sparks looked the best and i understand the thinking on keeping him. Who knew he would stink! I didn’t expect it.

Muzzin signed good
A.J and Kappy signed good
Tavares signing good
Willy contract good
Robertson great pick
Sandin great pick

No bad contracts in the middle of the forward group or anywhere on the defense.
Not enough grit in the lineup. I like clifford at a fair price! $1,750,000 for his play and to look after the skill guys when needed.

I would like Rielly to be extended on a front loaded 6 year deal with a Modified Ntc only.

On the whole Dubas and Pridham have managed a fairly flexable cap structure that has quality players on good deals that are movable if necessary. I see a healthy mobility of assets and a quality team in the process.

Recruitment of Europen free agents has been second to none.

Last but not least i like that Dubas treats his players as men before players. That instills a good trust but like i said I didn’t agree on that quality when he gave to much trust to Hutch.

I like the environment created within the organization. Thats about all i can think of now getting to be to long a post ha

 

[Byron Bitz]

Marner was an offer sheet threat.

Marner is more valuable than four average 1st round picks. Also, over 10.6m was the point where it became four 1sts.
10.6m x 5 was a legitimate threat, and would have been worse than Marner's current contract.

Marner was significantly better than Rantanen.

Care to explain how Marner is significantly better than Rantanen? Their career statistics suggest otherwise. Bob McKenzie reported that Rantanen’s camp wanted to use Marners contract as a comparable but couldnt because Marner’s contract was considered an “outlier”. Why are we giving our players outlier contracts?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Care to explain how Marner is significantly better than Rantanen? Their career statistics suggest otherwise. Bob McKenzie reported that Rantanen’s camp wanted to use Marners contract as a comparable but couldnt because Marner’s contract was considered an “outlier”. Why are we giving our players outlier contracts?

I’ll do that for him if i may. He out produces him slightly

 

[ACC1224]

Care to explain how Marner is significantly better than Rantanen? Their career statistics suggest otherwise. Bob McKenzie reported that Rantanen’s camp wanted to use Marners contract as a comparable but couldnt because Marner’s contract was considered an “outlier”. Why are we giving our players outlier contracts?

Not a rabbit hole you want to go down. Best to ignore them like everyone else.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Care to explain how Marner is significantly better than Rantanen? Their career statistics suggest otherwise.

Actually, their career statistics suggest that Marner is significantly better. You are allowing the MASSIVE amount of PP TOI (a team statistic) that Rantanen gets more than Marner affect your perception of them as players.

At time of signing:

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Rantanen: 2.13

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.06
Rantanen: 1.58

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15

On top of this, Marner is younger, and had worse overall linemate quality than Rantanen over this sample.

 

[hotpaws]

I don’t ignore anything. I view the work as a whole. Some things I don’t like also you know! I don’t like 7 and eight year deal. I would prefer Matthews had a 6th year on his deal. I don’t like no trade or no movement clauses on RFA contracts. I understand it for Tavares. Marner and Matthews both have them after the 22/23 seasons for some reason! I would not have given them to either and that’s important to stand for if it becomes possible you can’t convince them not to test the UFA market. I don’t see anyone bring that part of the contracts up. Modified no trade clauses should be the maximum afforded player and agents. Willy has a modified Ntc and thats fine. I also hate the Kadri deal in many ways. All ways actually.
I don’t interpret NMC’s as intention of staying. It causes fluidity movement of assets problems is all i boil them down to. I didn’t like Hutch being afforded as much confidence. He hurt us to long. Sparks looked the best and i understand the thinking on keeping him. Who knew he would stink! I didn’t expect it.

Muzzin signed good
A.J and Kappy signed good
Tavares signing good
Willy contract good
Robertson great pick
Sandin great pick

No bad contracts in the middle of the forward group or anywhere on the defense.
Not enough grit in the lineup. I like clifford at a fair price! $1,750,000 for his play and to look after the skill guys when needed.

I would like Rielly to be extended on a front loaded 6 year deal with a Modified Ntc only.

On the whole Dubas and Pridham have managed a fairly flexable cap structure that has quality players on good deals that are movable if necessary. I see a healthy mobility of assets and a quality team in the process.

Recruitment of Europen free agents has been second to none.

Last but not least i like that Dubas treats his players as men before players. That instills a good trust but like i said I didn’t agree on that quality when he gave to much trust to Hutch.

I like the environment created within the organization. Thats about all i can think of now getting to be to long a post ha

I should have been clearer since i didn't intend my post to be directed at you but more in a general sense in response to the posts i've read on this board ,

 

[Dekes For Days]

Best to ignore them like everyone else.

Actually, it would be "best" if you were able to provide answers and some sort of substantiation for the claims you keep repeating.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Actually, their career statistics suggest that Marner is significantly better. You are allowing the MASSIVE amount of PP TOI (a team statistic) that Rantanen gets more than Marner affect your perception of them as players.

At time of signing:

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Rantanen: 2.13

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.06
Rantanen: 1.58

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15

On top of this, Marner is younger, and had worse overall linemate quality than Rantanen over this sample.

Yeah that is pretty significant a difference. There is no statistical accumulation that i know of to convert that to points per dollar but it would add substance to contracts in favour of Marner on this specific comparison.

A average points per dollar league wide would be a astronomical amount of work with all the varying degrees of production needed to acquire that stat.

Marner kills penalties that not many star producers have to expend energy on in a game too. It takes a toll on productivity and the wear and tear on the body over the course of a season. It never gets considered in his favour. He conceivably could produce more offensively if he was playing offensive minutes in a fresher body each game.

He destroys Rantanen in these stats.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

First off, 8 years is actually historically a pretty rare term for high-end players coming off of their ELC; even more-so for players of Matthews' caliber. There was a bit of a trend starting to form a few years ago, largely due to those specific teams being able to afford overpayments at the time for extra years, but that was not a common thing, and it died out pretty fast as available league-wide cap space shrunk.

Second, both of those players signed years prior. Their cap hits under the current cap would be 13.6m for McDavid and 10.9m for Eichel.

Third, we know for a fact that McDavid's contract does not reflect his market value, because aside from not using his full leverage in negotiations, he very publicly took a 750k discount after the already agreed upon price was decided. That means that his negotiated contract value under the current cap would be 14.4m.

Fourth, even without that public discount, McDavid would have and does have one of the best contracts in the history of the cap era, so he's not really a good measure for evaluating how fair a contract is.

Fifth, you are evaluating Eichel based on (an inflated perception of) what he is now (which is still worse than Matthews), years after signing, at an older age than Matthews. At the time of signing, Eichel's contract was one of the worst post-ELC contracts. That was a contract based on hope and trust that Eichel would improve. Luckily, he did, but those 8 years required a massive overpayment at the time.

Even if we ignore the significant disadvantages Matthews faced in opportunity (2nd unit split PP) and linemates, at time of signing:

ES P/60

McDavid: 2.98
Matthews: 2.78
Eichel: 1.78

ES P1/60

Matthews: 2.40
McDavid: 2.32
Eichel: 1.44

ES G/60

Matthews: 1.59
McDavid: 1.09
Eichel: 0.79

PP P/60

Matthews: 6.45
McDavid: 6.42
Eichel: 6.29

PP P1/60

Matthews: 5.05
Eichel: 4.75
McDavid: 3.60

PP G/60

Matthews: 2.94
Eichel: 2.52
McDavid: 0.94

To help visualize, based on these pre-signing levels of production, if we equalized everybody to a standard (16:30 ES, 3:30 PP), production over an 82 game season would look something like this:

Points:

McDavid: 97.9
Matthews: 93.5
Eichel: 70.2

Primary Points:

Matthews: 78.3
McDavid: 69.5
Eichel: 55.2

Goals:

Matthews: 49.9
Eichel: 29.9
McDavid: 29.1

Also, another note; 26 is not "just entering your prime", and there's no evidence that Matthews wants to go anywhere else. McDavid and Eichel aren't really the best comparables for Matthews, but even when compared to them at time of signing, Matthews' contract does not look bad at all.

Matthews is a superstar that hangs right in there with McDavid like i always insist. Haha i took lots of flak for saying whenever it was in the past that i am happy to have Matthews and see no need that i would trade him straight up for McDavid.

These numbers indicate some stats to go along with my thinking on the two.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Actually, their career statistics suggest that Marner is significantly better. You are allowing the MASSIVE amount of PP TOI (a team statistic) that Rantanen gets more than Marner affect your perception of them as players.

At time of signing:

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Rantanen: 2.13

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.06
Rantanen: 1.58

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15

On top of this, Marner is younger, and had worse overall linemate quality than Rantanen over this sample.

This is your threadly reminder that Alex Ovechkin has spent more time on the PP this year than the Toronto Maple Leafs as an organization have.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The Matthews contract il give him a pass because there was threat of an offer sheet from Arizona. Marner contract was terrible negotiating by Dubas. He could have played hardball and got Marner at 9.5 for 7 years. I hate that we are paying way more than our division rivals for comparable players.

As long as CBA is drafted the way it is and taxes are not uniformly managed to make everyone on same level playing field we will have abnormality in contracts. Don't blame da players. This was a Bettman CBA. He has created all these different loopholes for sponsors, upfront payments and allowing different tax setups for each state and province. If you want a contrived CBA then these things will occur. Da players are all looking at making sure they put in their pockets da same money as their comparables. Much like any of us would do. Ontario is one of worst places to play pro sports due to Ontario tax. Habs a little worse.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

in the Mathews contract thread it was endlessly argued that you base a contract on goals per 60 and nothing else , Marners goals per 60 doesn't get him over 5/6 m but i'm guessing we'll ignore those arguments , lol

how about Kucherov , why does he deserve 1m more than him ?

Drais/Pasta , why does they deserve to make millions less than Marner?

I guess you'll just ignore the fact that i said guys like Panarin and Kane are getting paid 10+M even though they are playmakers. What 94 pt player has signed for 5-6M in the last few years? Name one.

Do I think Marner is a better player than those guys you listed? Kuch and Draisaitl, No. Pasta I view as a similar level player. You listed guys that broke out after they signed their contracts. Not comparable. Driasaitl signed after the 2017 season in which he had 70 pts. Marner signed after a 94 pt season. Pasta signed in 2017 also after a 70 pt season and hadn't hot the 90 pt mark till this year. Marner had more points than both guys over the course of their ELC. Kuch is on a good contract at first glance but gets less $ because of no state tax in Florida. A 9.5M contract in Florida is almost equivalent to 11M in Toronto for take home $.
Comparing NHL Player Contracts

Any other players that broke out after signing a cheap contract you want to compare? MacKinnon, Marchand maybe?

 

[hotpaws]

I guess you'll just ignore the fact that i said guys like Panarin and Kane are getting paid 10+M even though they are playmakers. What 94 pt player has signed for 5-6M in the last few years? Name one.

Do I think Marner is a better player than those guys you listed? Kuch and Draisaitl, No. Pasta I view as a similar level player. You listed guys that broke out after they signed their contracts. Not comparable. Driasaitl signed after the 2017 season in which he had 70 pts. Marner signed after a 94 pt season. Pasta signed in 2017 also after a 70 pt season and hadn't hot the 90 pt mark till this year. Marner had more points than both guys over the course of their ELC. Kuch is on a good contract at first glance but gets less $ because of no state tax in Florida. A 9.5M contract in Florida is almost equivalent to 11M in Toronto for take home $.
Comparing NHL Player Contracts

Any other players that broke out after signing a cheap contract you want to compare? MacKinnon, Marchand maybe?

why shouldn't ignore what doesn't fit argument ? you do and just did when you ignored the fact that's Kane's deal coming out of his elc would be roughly 9m per as a % of this years cap and the fact that all the players making 10m per and up were either signed a ufa's or pending ufa's and the one's that didn't were C's which i'm told are worth more than wingers , but i guess the C greater than W is a argument for a different thread

and as i said , every thread it's a different argument and in the Mathews contract thread the Dube supporters endlessly argued that only goals per 60 or maybe it was 5 on 5 goals per 60 that was the only way to judge what a player should be paid

 

[Menzinger]

What would be considered Dubas’ worse move to date?

Backup situation?
Adding a 1st to dump Marleau?
Keeping Babcock?
Nylander negotiations?
Marner contract?
Something else?

I think a couple of these.things are likely outside of his control in some ways - like Shanahan (and potentially board) would have had to give the go ahead on firing Babcock.

I think the thing he had immediate control over that was worthy of flack is the backup situation this season. Imo probably should have acted earlier.

Thay said, i do really like Campbell as the eventual solution

 

[Menzinger]

The Matthews contract il give him a pass because there was threat of an offer sheet from Arizona. Marner contract was terrible negotiating by Dubas. He could have played hardball and got Marner at 9.5 for 7 years. I hate that we are paying way more than our division rivals for comparable players.

The thing with Matthews is hes close to being a unicorn when it comes to finding a good player comparison.

The fact is there are very very few centres of his size and goal scoring prowess in the history of the league let alone in the salary cap era.

He ended up with a post ELC rfa deal that was valued a couple % more than Toews but less than Malkins which seems fine to me