Since James Mirtle is a proponent of advanced stats and views this thread, I propose following questions:
1. In 2013 season, top 5 teams in PDO were Pittsburgh, Toronto, Chicago, Columbus, and Anaheim. Since PDO is shooting % + save %, I believe the luck factor kicks in (as claimed by supporter of these stats), and that these teams should regress. Does that mean that team like New Jersey that finished 28th in the list didn't have luck?
2. Let us change to Fenwick now (which is corsi minus the blocked shots). This one had New Jersey, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston and Montreal in top 5. While Toronto was 30th. How did it happen, that NJ did better than every team in the league in this stat, yet it was ranked 9 points behind Toronto which was the last placed team in this statistic. How can a team, ranked 1st by Fenwick end up being the 9th worst? And the worst ranked team end up being the 9th best?
3. Corsi (since it is another version of Fenwick) tells the idential story. And hence, I pose the same questions.
4. One common thing I noted in all these stats was that Chicago was a common, thereby one could say that Chicago would be a good pick to win it all. But then I ask, do I really need all these advanced stats to predict that? Their point total and goal differential are enough for one to conclude that they are a really good team, and thus a good bet for cup champions.
5. In 2011-12, LA was ranked top 5 in all stats. But no-one then had picked them to win the cup, and they surprised everyone indeed. Goaltender (for the most part) doesn't affect Fenwick/Corsi, and we all know how Quick played then. My point is, LA had advanced stats in their favour all this time, but only in playoffs when Quick put up Conn Smythe performance; did that work by skaters amount to anything. Also, LA was top 5 in these stats, yet made the playoffs as an 8th seed. Makes you question if these stats are reliable.
5. Let us go further back. In 2010-11, Vancouver, Washington, Philly, Pittsburgh and SanJose ranked top 5 in NHL. Playoffs had Bruins, Canucks, Sharks and Lightning as top 4 teams. In comparison, top 5 teams according to Fenwick were SJ, Chicago, Tampa bay, Detroit and CALGARY. Corsi had San Jose, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Vancouver. PDO (or the luckiest team) had Boston, Vancouver, Nashville, Phoenix and Philadelphia. I don't see much correlation between the rankings by these "advanced stats" and the final standings (be it regular season or playoffs). Yes, PDO had the 2 cup finalists ranked at the top, but when the Leafs are at the top of that list, why do we have articles that say "Leafs will regress" rather than "Leafs will win the cup" (which I don't think they were going to win last year anyways).
My point by raising these questions is simple: I see more noise than signal with the data that is presented to me by these stats. I see more anomaly than trends in these data. At the end of the day, I find goal differrential to be a far more reliable stat than whatever these advanced stats are trying to show me. Every year in past 6-7 years ( I went only that far back), the team with best goal differential won the president's trophy. Do advanced stat guarantee that? Further, at least one of the top 4 teams in goal differential makes the cup final.
Bottom line: These so called advanced stats don't show any trend to me. I see more flaws with this than trends. Hence, I don't want to rely on these bunch of numbers (is what I will call them) for even a tiny moment.