An (early) look at the Stanley Cup Favourites

[Elvs]

Since we are on the topic of the Jets skating ability, I can tell you I've been studying this particular area in their last three games. Since I recently edited their team on NHL 18, I wanted to go into more depth with the skating as this so central to the feel of the players in the game. And as for their defensemen, what I've come up with so far is:

Byfuglien = lacking in quickness, but he's got pretty good mobility and his top speed isn't bad. Overall he's a decent skater, certainly if you consider how tall and heavy he is.

Kulikov = terrific all around skater. Good quickness and speed, but his mobility is what stands out the most.

Enstrom = very mobile and owns decent quickness. Is somewhat lacking in top end speed though, especially for such a small player.

Myers = not quite sure yet. He has a reputation for being a great skater, but he has not stood out in these three games I've been studying. His first few steps seems 'meh', and he feels lanky/poorly balanched. But then again he's 6'8". I need to watch him more to get a better assessment.

Morrissey = Is very quick and mobile. I've haven't seen him go full speed though, so he's another one I need to watch more.

Trouba = Great overall skater. Since he's 6"2/203 lbs, I'm impressed with his acceleration in particular.

Chiarot = Stands out as the worst skater on the Jets defense. But then again he's their 7th defenseman when they're healthy.


Keep in mind it's a little tricky to study defensemen in this area, since they don't have to use their speed as much as forwards do, hence why they're able log so much icetime. But overall I'd say the Jets defense group is just fine.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Just like you haven't watched Los Angeles.

False

Absolutely no love for the Jackets. Funny thing is, this doesn’t surprise me at all.

Not a strong PP so far this season and lacking the #1 centre for me to put them in the conversation.

 

[Bill Berg]

The rookie goaltender argument against the Jets is weak. Last two Cups were won by a rookie goalie.

 

[Blowfish]

Liking jets, bruins, bolts, preds and blues.

 

[googleIsMyFriend]

Since we are on the topic of the Jets skating ability, I can tell you I've been studying this particular area in their last three games. Since I recently edited their team on NHL 18, I wanted to go into more depth with the skating as this so central to the feel of the players in the game. And as for their defensemen, what I've come up with so far is:

Byfuglien = lacking in quickness, but he's got pretty good mobility and his top speed isn't bad. Overall he's a decent skater, certainly if you consider how tall and heavy he is.

Kulikov = terrific all around skater. Good quickness and speed, but his mobility is what stands out the most.

Enstrom = very mobile and owns decent quickness. Is somewhat lacking in top end speed though, especially for such a small player.

Myers = not quite sure yet. He has a reputation for being a great skater, but he has not stood out in these three games I've been studying. His first few steps seems 'meh', and he feels lanky/poorly balanched. But then again he's 6'8". I need to watch him more to get a better assessment.

Morrissey = Is very quick and mobile. I've haven't seen him go full speed though, so he's another one I need to watch more.

Trouba = Great overall skater. Since he's 6"2/203 lbs, I'm impressed with his acceleration in particular.

Chiarot = Stands out as the worst skater on the Jets defense. But then again he's their 7th defenseman when they're healthy.


Keep in mind it's a little tricky to study defensemen in this area, since they don't have to use their speed as much as forwards do, hence why they're able log so much icetime. But overall I'd say the Jets defense group is just fine.

Myers is a very good skater. When he brings puck with his foot speed he is hard to stop. And he can keep up with smaller forwards in defence zone. And he is strong. Chiarot is slowest one for sure but he is quite good for 7th. He has improved since last year i think. Trouba is big, strong and great skater.

 

[Armourboy]

The rookie goaltender argument against the Jets is weak. Last two Cups were won by a rookie goalie.

Calling Murray a rookie in this last seasons cup win is one hell of a stretch of a technicality.

Regardless the question mark for the Jets will be their goaltending until we get a full season and a playoff that says otherwise. The other question for them is simply experience. Everyone knows the playoffs are a different beast. We've seen far too many regular season heroes go down in a blaze of glory far too often. It's the reason I don't put a ton of stock in the regular season records, how the game is played and called changes tremendously once the playoffs hit.

Frankly I think there are a few teams that are built for the playoffs, even then who knows if they make it. While Pittsburgh will remain a cup contender until proven otherwise, I think their chances of winning it are pretty slim. Not because I dislike the team, but the odds show that it is just insanely difficult to win 3 in a row.

 

[BHD]

The Bolts still have to play the Leafs 4 times

The Leafs could beat the Lightning and I would still expect the latter to go farther. It's not a slight against the Leafs, as they're a team headed in the right direction. However, the Lightning are positioned well this season.

 

[PaulD]

Final Four

Blues Kings
Lightning Pens

 

[BHD]

Calling Murray a rookie in this last seasons cup win is one hell of a stretch of a technicality.

Regardless the question mark for the Jets will be their goaltending until we get a full season and a playoff that says otherwise. The other question for them is simply experience. Everyone knows the playoffs are a different beast. We've seen far too many regular season heroes go down in a blaze of glory far too often. It's the reason I don't put a ton of stock in the regular season records, how the game is played and called changes tremendously once the playoffs hit.

Frankly I think there are a few teams that are built for the playoffs, even then who knows if they make it. While Pittsburgh will remain a cup contender until proven otherwise, I think their chances of winning it are pretty slim. Not because I dislike the team, but the odds show that it is just insanely difficult to win 3 in a row.

I think the Pens will make it, but man... I don't see them going far. They're coming off two Cup runs and every team is ready for them. Even if they finished the season as a WC, they'd be facing either the Atlantic (Bolts, Leafs) or Metro (Caps? Jackets?). Yeah...

 

[Spirit of 67]

Lol...



Major boost?? Dude has blown ass almost all season long. Points aren't everything.

And at the time of the article, don't even actually sit in a playoff spot.

 

[TkachuksMouthguard]

Somewhat wild prediction... Kings win the cup. Over Caps. Ovie finally makes it to final but loses in 6 games.

 

[613Leafer]

Looking only at teams with 40+ points (too lazy to do write-ups for more teams, though I think Columbus, NYI, etc are just as viable a contender as teams like the Leafs or Blues), I think Tampa, Nashville, and maybe LA have the fewest holes:

Tampa: Has legit #1C / #1D / #1G, plenty of depth, is #1 for goals for and #5 for goals against. They're probably the top contender out there, though you could also make the argument that they benefit to some degree from playing in the weakest division in the league.

Nashville: Has a legit #1D / #1G, maybe lacks an elite #1C but has great depth overall up front and a solid 1-2 punch up the middle in Johansen-Turris, plus arguably the best blueline in the league to help makeup for the lack of an elite top 5-10 centre. 8th in both goals for and goals against.

LA Kings: Has a legit #1C / #1D / #1G. Brown's resurgence + some secondary scoring from a guy like Kempe have helped this team bounce back into contention. I think the scoring depth is still an issue though, and guys like Kopitar/Brown may be playing unsustainably well. One counter argument is that Jeff Carter has only played 6 games, so if/when those guys fall back down, if Carter can come back and add another offensive threat, it could offset that. 10th in goals for, 1st in goals against

St. Louis: Has a legit #1D, but I'm not quite ready to call Schenn a #1C despite the hot start. Regardless, they have a deep potent offence, and some good pieces on the blueline. Allen could be an Achilles Heel too, he's on the lower-end of starting goalies around the league. 6th in goals for, 4th in goals against.

Winnipeg: Has a legit #1C and a ton of talent up front. There's good depth on the blueline, but no legit #1D. Helleybuck is also still slightly unpredictable, coming off a fairly weak year last year, but off to a pretty solid start this year. I think he's probably a legit #1G, but if he wasn't it wouldn't be a complete shock - could be more of an inconsistent starter like Neuvirth, Mason, Reimer, Bernier, etc (i.e. guys that can put up a 0.915-0.920 save % once every 2-3 years). 4th in goals for, 9th in goals against.

Toronto: Has a legit #1C and #1G, but issues defensively. 29th in the league for shots against, and unsustainably strong goaltending over the last month to propel their winning record over that time. 5th in goals for, 9th in goals against, but that goals against can drop if/when the goaltending falls back down to Earth.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Looking only at teams with 40+ points (too lazy to do write-ups for more teams, though I think Columbus, NYI, etc are just as viable a contender as teams like the Leafs or Blues), I think Tampa, Nashville, and maybe LA have the fewest holes:

Tampa: Has legit #1C / #1D / #1G, plenty of depth, is #1 for goals for and #5 for goals against. They're probably the top contender out there, though you could also make the argument that they benefit to some degree from playing in the weakest division in the league.

Nashville: Has a legit #1D / #1G, maybe lacks an elite #1C but has great depth overall up front and a solid 1-2 punch up the middle in Johansen-Turris, plus arguably the best blueline in the league to help makeup for the lack of an elite top 5-10 centre. 8th in both goals for and goals against.

LA Kings: Has a legit #1C / #1D / #1G. Brown's resurgence + some secondary scoring from a guy like Kempe have helped this team bounce back into contention. I think the scoring depth is still an issue though, and guys like Kopitar/Brown may be playing unsustainably well. One counter argument is that Jeff Carter has only played 6 games, so if/when those guys fall back down, if Carter can come back and add another offensive threat, it could offset that. 10th in goals for, 1st in goals against

St. Louis: Has a legit #1D, but I'm not quite ready to call Schenn a #1C despite the hot start. Regardless, they have a deep potent offence, and some good pieces on the blueline. Allen could be an Achilles Heel too, he's on the lower-end of starting goalies around the league. 6th in goals for, 4th in goals against.

Winnipeg: Has a legit #1C and a ton of talent up front. There's good depth on the blueline, but no legit #1D. Helleybuck is also still slightly unpredictable, coming off a fairly weak year last year, but off to a pretty solid start this year. I think he's probably a legit #1G, but if he wasn't it wouldn't be a complete shock - could be more of an inconsistent starter like Neuvirth, Mason, Reimer, Bernier, etc (i.e. guys that can put up a 0.915-0.920 save % once every 2-3 years). 4th in goals for, 9th in goals against.

Toronto: Has a legit #1C and #1G, but issues defensively. 29th in the league for shots against, and unsustainably strong goaltending over the last month to propel their winning record over that time. 5th in goals for, 9th in goals against, but that goals against can drop if/when the goaltending falls back down to Earth.

All legit points.

I didn't have St.Louis because although I like how Brayden Schenn has been so far this season, not 100% sold yet there and I am not a big Jake Allen fan.

Toronto...defensively leave a lot to be desired still, need to see improvement there before I can add them into the conversation.

 

[Bill Berg]

Calling Murray a rookie in this last seasons cup win is one hell of a stretch of a technicality.

That's the joke. Technically he was considered a rookie in both seasons by the NHL.

Penguins' Murray clinches Cup twice as rookie

 

[Viqsi]

Not a strong PP so far this season and lacking the #1 centre for me to put them in the conversation.

Interesting. I would have thought Bob's playoff record would be the primary argument. Special teams don't always amount to much in the playoffs when they put the whistles away, and PLD is playing that #1C position ably and well.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

That's nothing, you should see how proud they are of that first game against Winnipeg!

.....or how suicidal some were after losing said game:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/the-official-2017-18-tank-thread.2394263/

The game day threads were better.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Interesting. I would have thought Bob's playoff record would be the primary argument. Special teams don't always amount to much in the playoffs when they put the whistles away, and PLD is playing that #1C position ably and well.

I think Bob is capable of stealing 1-2 playoff series but need to see more than 1/4 of a season with PLD as a #1C before I can put them as a favourite but easily a team I wouldn't want to face in the play-offs.

 

[93LEAFS]

East: Boston, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay
West: L.A., Winnipeg, Nashville

Will be surprised if a few of these teams aren't in the Conference Finals - but would love if The Isle or Columbus came out of the Metro and St. Louis came out of the Norris (or whatever it's called nowadays) as a Columbus vs. St. Louis Final is what we all dream about.

How are Boston a cup favorite? I'd also have trouble labeling Winnipeg as such.

 

[NyQuil]

In my mind, a Cup favourite needs to have two things going for them:

1. A solid to stellar regular season.
2. A track record for their core in the playoffs.

Playoff hockey is quite a bit different so I'm a little leery of teams putting up a lot of points during the regular season with little to no positive playoff experience.

 

[Michael Scarn]

Some uninformed Jake Allen opinions. He’s no Bobrovsky but please look at his playoff numbers last year. He was sensational and far from the reason the Blues lost. Injuries and lack of secondary scoring are why I wouldn’t pick the Blues right now, not Jake Allen.

 

[The Macho King]

Looking only at teams with 40+ points (too lazy to do write-ups for more teams, though I think Columbus, NYI, etc are just as viable a contender as teams like the Leafs or Blues), I think Tampa, Nashville, and maybe LA have the fewest holes:

Tampa: Has legit #1C / #1D / #1G, plenty of depth, is #1 for goals for and #5 for goals against. They're probably the top contender out there, though you could also make the argument that they benefit to some degree from playing in the weakest division in the league.

Nashville: Has a legit #1D / #1G, maybe lacks an elite #1C but has great depth overall up front and a solid 1-2 punch up the middle in Johansen-Turris, plus arguably the best blueline in the league to help makeup for the lack of an elite top 5-10 centre. 8th in both goals for and goals against.

LA Kings: Has a legit #1C / #1D / #1G. Brown's resurgence + some secondary scoring from a guy like Kempe have helped this team bounce back into contention. I think the scoring depth is still an issue though, and guys like Kopitar/Brown may be playing unsustainably well. One counter argument is that Jeff Carter has only played 6 games, so if/when those guys fall back down, if Carter can come back and add another offensive threat, it could offset that. 10th in goals for, 1st in goals against

St. Louis: Has a legit #1D, but I'm not quite ready to call Schenn a #1C despite the hot start. Regardless, they have a deep potent offence, and some good pieces on the blueline. Allen could be an Achilles Heel too, he's on the lower-end of starting goalies around the league. 6th in goals for, 4th in goals against.

Winnipeg: Has a legit #1C and a ton of talent up front. There's good depth on the blueline, but no legit #1D. Helleybuck is also still slightly unpredictable, coming off a fairly weak year last year, but off to a pretty solid start this year. I think he's probably a legit #1G, but if he wasn't it wouldn't be a complete shock - could be more of an inconsistent starter like Neuvirth, Mason, Reimer, Bernier, etc (i.e. guys that can put up a 0.915-0.920 save % once every 2-3 years). 4th in goals for, 9th in goals against.

Toronto: Has a legit #1C and #1G, but issues defensively. 29th in the league for shots against, and unsustainably strong goaltending over the last month to propel their winning record over that time. 5th in goals for, 9th in goals against, but that goals against can drop if/when the goaltending falls back down to Earth.

As for Tampa playing in the weakest division...

While I'm sure that may end up being a benefit at the end of the season, we've only played like 7 divisional games so far. Meanwhile we've played 5 games against the California teams, and 12 games against the Metro (with 5 games against the Central teams). So - at least so far - we haven't been feasting off of the weak Atlantic.

 

[b in vancouver]

How are Boston a cup favorite? I'd also have trouble labeling Winnipeg as such.

At this point I think you can just name teams in the playoffs. Would love to see a Bruins vs. Jets Final.

The Bruins have been a kinda sleeper pick all year. Where they are in the standings has a lot more to do with how injured they were for the first 25 games and that Rask had a shaky start to the season. Rask seems to have found his game and they're getting healthier and you're starting to see them rack up wins.

 

[93LEAFS]

At this point I think you can just name teams in the playoffs. Would love to see a Bruins vs. Jets Final.

The Bruins have been a kinda sleeper pick all year. Where they are in the standings has a lot more to do with how injured they were for the first 25 games and that Rask had a shaky start to the season. Rask seems to have found his game and they're getting healthier and you're starting to see them rack up wins.

I'm just thinking objectively, teams like Columbus and St. Louis probably grade out better. Pittsburgh isn't looking great but gets a reputation vote. I'd love for my team to be a contender, and we have a shot at making the conference finals, as with parity and injuries anything can happen, but I'd have trouble putting them in the serious contender category. Pitt on reputation, along with LA and Nashville seem above everyone else. Columbus is a wild-card, great team depth and strong underlying numbers, but still quite young and lack a true #1 center.

 

[bobholly39]

I still think you have to put Pittsburgh at #1.

There are 2 components to winning a cup.

1. Having a good (great?) team.
2. "Putting it together" at the right time.

#2 is so much more difficult than #1.

And while on paper you can put some teams ahead of Pitt for the first category (Tampa, etc) - a back to back cup champion is impossible to ignore for the 2nd category.

They should still be #1.

 

[bobholly39]

Also when I see someone like Winnipeg or Columbus I think to myself 0 playoff success/experience. Hard to imagine them going all the way (especially Jets) considering that.