Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, we have a manager now. So it's back to patiently waiting for Vlad Jr.

[Anthrax442]

Complaining about sign stealing is so lame.

 

[The Nemesis]

Blue Jays' off-season roadmap: Who to acquire, who to cut loose - Sportsnet.ca

More realistically speaking, here’s what I believe a successful off-season would look like in Toronto…
1.) Decline Yangervis Solarte’s option, exercise Justin Smoak’s option


2.) DFA Dalton Pompey

Once the Blue Jays need to clear 40-man space for Rule 5-eligible prospects, it makes sense to part with Pompey, who’s clearly no longer part of the team’s plans. Don’t expect much of a return for the switch-hitter, who might benefit from a fresh start.
3.) Trade Russell Martin and $16 of his $20 million to a contender for a C prospect

4.) Trade Kendrys Morales and $10 of $12 million for a D prospect

5.) Listen to trade offers for Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and Ken Giles


6.) Trade Aledmys Diaz to a contender for pitching

7.) Sign a starting pitcher to a short-term deal

.) Tender most arbitration-eligible players

There’s a case to be made for tendering every arbitration eligible player except Solarte and reliever Jake Petricka. Credit Petricka for putting together a bounce-back season, but his projected $1.7 million salary looks high.
9.) Add more starting pitching

10.) Slow-play the free agent relief market


Results

Additions: Sonny Gray, Trevor Cahill, Adam Conley, two veteran relievers, one starting pitcher on a minor-league deal, three low-level prospects
Subtractions: Yangervis Solarte, Dalton Pompey, Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Aledmys Diaz, Jake Petricka, Max Pentecost, Justin Shafer
That’s a lot of departures, but the Blue Jays keep all their top prospects and controllable players in this scenario. The resulting team would have more playing time for young players looking to establish themselves at the MLB level, and from Giles on down, there would also be lots of interesting pitching to trade next summer. All told, this version of the Blue Jays would likely cost $125-130 million.

There's like half of a good idea here mixed in with some puzzling options.

Solarte is gone, no question there.

Smoak's option gets picked up because of course it does.

If you can find trade partners to take Martin and Morales, awesome. Martin is probably the easier of the two, but that doesn't mean it's easy. In a perfect world Martin gets to go to a contender for one last crack at it and Morales clears up DH to be a cycling position to give guys half-off-days, but I'm not holding my breath and it wouldn't be the worst thing if they're both back for 1 more year.

Pillar should absolutely be on the block before he falls apart. His bat is never coming around, so his value will never be higher than it is now. I'm not selling Sanchez now at low tide in his value. Ditto for Stroman (though less so). Giles is always on the table but relievers always fetch better value from panicky contenders at the deadline. Grichuk has no reason to be moved, especially if Pillar is headed out the door. Even a team full of talented kids needs a veteran presence or two, especially one that can play all 3 OF positions and swing a pretty solid bat.

I'm also not sure we're at the point of needing to trade Diaz. It's not like Travis has seized the 2B job, and Drury still has to come back and prove he can handle an everyday gig too. So there's value in keeping a guy who can play short and 3rd and maybe some 2nd in a pinch and who was a solidly above-average offensive player in the back half of the season (his season #s seem to be bogged down by his awful start to the year. He was never that bad again after March/April and was much better by the time we hit July). I'm not turning down a stupid good offer for him if one comes along, but I'm also not looking for anything just to get him out the door.

A short-term pitching signing makes sense while the team evaluates what they have in their young arms. Especially with Zeuch among others looking to get their shots soon enough. But pitching signings in the short term are pretty much never a bad idea anyway.

It feels like he started with a good kernel of a plan at the core, then started to get brash over-reach as he got into it.

 

[phillipmike]

My prediction for Martin;

I predict Martin traded to the Dodgers for nothing of real face value and the Jays retaining at least 15M likely more.

Grandal is a FA and the Dodgers likely can’t re-sign him with their financial situation and likely don’t want to do they can save money for other free agents. Plus they have a top catching prospect in Ruiz in AA, one year of Martin should give him enough time.

Jays clear a spot for their catchers with multiple years of control and roll with Jansen and Maile with McGuire in Buffalo and the abundance of catching depth behind him.

 

[Discoverer]

I picked the Braves for Martin for obvious reasons, but I think he goes somewhere and I don't think it'll be all that hard to move him. They'll pay whatever it takes to get something they want.

Take a look at the kind of production some teams got from the catcher position last year. Martin remains a useful piece.

 

[Eyedea]

My prediction for Martin;

I predict Martin traded to the Dodgers for nothing of real face value and the Jays retaining at least 15M likely more.

Grandal is a FA and the Dodgers likely can’t re-sign him with their financial situation and likely don’t want to do they can save money for other free agents. Plus they have a top catching prospect in Ruiz in AA, one year of Martin should give him enough time.

Jays clear a spot for their catchers with multiple years of control and roll with Jansen and Maile with McGuire in Buffalo and the abundance of catching depth behind him.

Martin's defence was still worth a win this past season, and the guy is an elite game caller. If you're just giving him away, then I don't see the reason in retaining close to that much in salary.

 

[Jozay]

 

[Discoverer]

Martin's defence was still worth a win this past season, and the guy is an elite game caller. If you're just giving him away, then I don't see the reason in retaining close to that much in salary.

Exactly. Martin at $5 million brings back something decent.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I assume "Many Teams" refers to the Red Sox and Yankees.

 

[Mach85]

Far too many questions remain in MLB giving the Astros a free pass on their dugout surveillance

...Houston argued that it directed McLaughlin to surveil the opposing dugouts to ensure their opponents weren’t using any illegal tactics to steal the Astros’ signs. In other words: The Astros were making sure the Indians and Red Sox weren’t doing something wrong.“We were playing defense,” Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow said. “We were not playing offense. We want to make sure it’s an even playing field.”

Between this explanation and the Osuna one (regardless of one's feelings on that matter) where the team's contradiction of its own zero-tolerance policy was explained by "well, the alleged act didn't occur when he was a member of the team," Luhnow seems to either think he's smarter than he is, others are dumber than they are, or he's the troll of the baseball world. That logic is terrible. "Officer, I only held up that man at gunpoint when he left my party to make sure he didn't take any of my shit. I was playing defence. I did nothing wrong."

 

[Eyedea]

Luhnow does come from the school of sports espionage, even though he himself was a victim of it.

 

[canucksfan]

Chavez Young should be on there.

 

[phillipmike]

Martin's defence was still worth a win this past season, and the guy is an elite game caller. If you're just giving him away, then I don't see the reason in retaining close to that much in salary.

My "nothing of face value comment" isnt a shot at Martin as you can get prospects who arent high on lists but have potential to turn into something. I hope to not get a JB Woodman type and more of Guzman/Abreu type that the Astros give up for McCann.

I would also argue that Martin WAS an elite defender.

Last Season: Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Last 3 seasons: Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Im not arguing that he doesnt have value but his value has taken a big hit over the last few season based on his bat, defense, age and injury history. Likely cant be a 500 PA starter anymore or at least relied to be that.

You can also get comparable guys or guys who have been better in 2017 and 2018 in Lucroy, McCann, Ramos, Suzuki, Chirinos etc. in free agency so there are many other options in the catching market to dilute Martin's return.

Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Not to mention guys like Grandal and Realamuto who will likely be moved. I wouldnt expect a serviceable return at face value.

Just my thoughts.

 

[Eyedea]

FG doesn’t add pitch framing into their data, BP does. His adjusted FRAA was good for 15th overall despite only catching 71 games. I didn’t suggest that his defence is elite though (but it’s still very good), I said that his game calling is. Managers would love to have a guy like him teach younger catchers and pitchers how to execute gameplans against certain types of hitters. He’s a teacher and that kind of information is immeasurable for teams (think David Ross for the Cubs but better).

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Chavez Young should be on there.

Yeah, he's also too high on Paulino and Tellez, and is missing Kloffenstein (top-15), Diaz (top-20), Murphy (top-25) and Otto Lopez (top-30).

Not bad otherwise.

 

[Discoverer]

My "nothing of face value comment" isnt a shot at Martin as you can get prospects who arent high on lists but have potential to turn into something. I hope to not get a JB Woodman type and more of Guzman/Abreu type that the Astros give up for McCann.

I would also argue that Martin WAS an elite defender.

Last Season: Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Last 3 seasons: Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Im not arguing that he doesnt have value but his value has taken a big hit over the last few season based on his bat, defense, age and injury history. Likely cant be a 500 PA starter anymore or at least relied to be that.

You can also get comparable guys or guys who have been better in 2017 and 2018 in Lucroy, McCann, Ramos, Suzuki, Chirinos etc. in free agency so there are many other options in the catching market to dilute Martin's return.

Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Not to mention guys like Grandal and Realamuto who will likely be moved. I wouldnt expect a serviceable return at face value.

Just my thoughts.

Lucroy and McCann definitely haven't been better the last couple years. The others have been, for sure, but they're likely to find a starting job that pays more somewhere. But even then, it depends what each team is looking for:

DRS the last three years:
Martin +17
Lucroy -22
McCann -10
Suzuki -15
Ramos -11
Chirinos -10

Per-game framing value in 2018 (because I don't know how to find multi-year framing stats):
Martin +0.52
Lucroy -0.67
McCann -0.35
Suzuki -1.49
Ramos -0.88
Chirinos -1.05

Want someone who's good behind the plate? It's Martin, and the other guys aren't even remotely close to his level. I think that's what most teams are looking for from a veteran backup: a good defender/framer who works well with the pitching staff. It's the only position I actually put value in the old "veteran presence/leadership" thing.

 

[Discoverer]

Yeah, he's also too high on Paulino and Tellez, and is missing Kloffenstein (top-15), Diaz (top-20), Murphy (top-25) and Otto Lopez (top-30).

Not bad otherwise.

Yeah, not terrible, but he seems to have just completely forgotten about a couple of guys (Young and Kloffenstein in particular). Weird.

 

[Mach85]

Luhnow does come from the school of sports espionage, even though he himself was a victim of it.

Yeah, I feel you. There has to be a line somewhere though, or it's just chaos (I get that it's naivete to think there's no sign-stealing happening). I think not using technology is reasonable. So I'm on board with the people saying MLB should come down harder.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah, I feel you. There has to be a line somewhere though, or it's just chaos (I get that it's naivete to think there's no sign-stealing happening). I think not using technology is reasonable. So I'm on board with the people saying MLB should come down harder.

I think the whole Cards debacle is still so fresh in their minds that the MLB is really trying to play favourites in this situation. I wish the MLB would come down harder on all teams but it also seems as though this stuff really isn’t all that vicious and all of them do it until someone watching from aside feels like pointing it out to the public audience.

Wonder why the Sox would be so against this? They’ve been doing it for ages.

 

[Cor]

It'll suck to see Martin traded if he is, but ultimatley it's the right move. Danny Jansen is ready to be our starting catcher, and Maile is a solid backup.

 

[Suntouchable13]

No way they eat 80% of Martin's salary for a C Prospect.

 

[phillipmike]

Lucroy and McCann definitely haven't been better the last couple years. The others have been, for sure, but they're likely to find a starting job that pays more somewhere. But even then, it depends what each team is looking for:

DRS the last three years:
Martin +17
Lucroy -22
McCann -10
Suzuki -15
Ramos -11
Chirinos -10

Per-game framing value in 2018 (because I don't know how to find multi-year framing stats):
Martin +0.52
Lucroy -0.67
McCann -0.35
Suzuki -1.49
Ramos -0.88
Chirinos -1.05

Want someone who's good behind the plate? It's Martin, and the other guys aren't even remotely close to his level. I think that's what most teams are looking for from a veteran backup: a good defender/framer who works well with the pitching staff. It's the only position I actually put value in the old "veteran presence/leadership" thing.

If the Jays try to market him as a 1A, platoon guy or starter where you are looking at overall value then you arent going to get back much in trade as i stated there have been better overall catchers who are available via free agency and in trade. Meaning the return will be a lot less because Martin has either been injury prone or ineffective overall or both in either 2017 or 2018.

Now if the Jays try to market him as a "veteran backup" and only bringing most of value via defensively and intangibles then i would argue again a good or even serviceable return shouldnt be expected back there arent many recent (i would say close to none) examples of a backup catcher getting moved for anything of real face value.

I stand by my statement/POV that IF the Jays move Martin then they would need to retain a large sum and in that event regardless of how, they will not be getting "nothing of real face value." Im just saying im not expecting a top 20 prospect return for Martin at 5M, if someone is offering a top 20 prospect or better then great i take it. But if i had to retain to 15M to get Julian Merryweather type prospects who doesnt hold much immediate value but does have some potential and upside then i for sure pull the trigger.

Some may say then do not trade him but i think there is value finding Martin a home to compete and more value to the Jays to give your catchers who have control in Jansen, Maile and McGuire more opportunities to play in addition to saving 5M does have value as well.

You get playing time for your controllable long term assets
You free up a 40 man roster spot.
You move a good player to contend late in his career.
You save 5M
You get a prospect or 2 back (potentially 6 years of control)

None of those are happening if you are holding out for a better return. I rather see the benefits of those 5 pros then just hold onto Martin for the year and let him walk for nothing. Sure some might argue there is value in his leadership and mentoring for Jansen but i weigh the aforementioned 5 pros over the leadership and mentoring.

 

[Eyedea]

I think there’s a higher chance of Martin being our starting 3B than the Jays retaining 15m to let him go.

 

[The Nemesis]

Got a Sportsnet alert saying one of the managerial candidates is a name nobody's mentioned yet: Ed Sprague.

Interesting...

 

[LeafSadist]

Wonder what Kelly Gruber is up to these days.

 

[NeverGoingToWin]

I hate posting things like this but....harassing women.