Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, we have a manager now. So it's back to patiently waiting for Vlad Jr.

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OVO16

#WeTheNorth
Apr 16, 2017
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Dont know much about him. We'll see I guess. I personally dont think Managers make a huge difference.

Lets see what else the jays do this off-season
 

Brown Dog

Registered User
Jun 23, 2007
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Well you can't accuse them of trying to placate the fan base with a sexy name, that's for sure!
 

Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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Analytics has made the game worse. If a starter is dominant through 6 or 7, you don't take him out just because he is going through the lineup 3rd or 4th time. I hope this new guy is not like that.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Analytics has made the game worse. If a starter is dominant through 6 or 7, you don't take him out just because he is going through the lineup 3rd or 4th time. I hope this new guy is not like that.

Personally, I hope he's willing to do whatever gives the team the best chance to win. That often means pulling the starter "early" in a close game.

Starting pitcher ERA in 2018:
1st time through the order: 3.45
2nd time through the order: 4.17
3rd time through the order: 5.47
4th time through the order: 6.69

You might think it makes the game worse (because tradition and stuff) but if the Jays don't head in that direction they're going to get left behind and consistently lose games to less talented teams. Yay?
 
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metafour

Registered User
Apr 6, 2008
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Analytics has made the game worse. If a starter is dominant through 6 or 7, you don't take him out just because he is going through the lineup 3rd or 4th time. I hope this new guy is not like that.

All of the data indicates that starters typically regress through the lineup, with heavy regression through the "3rd and 4th time", so it would seem to me that you are just being kind of an idiot here.
 

Woodman19

Registered User
Jun 14, 2008
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Analytics has made the game worse. If a starter is dominant through 6 or 7, you don't take him out just because he is going through the lineup 3rd or 4th time. I hope this new guy is not like that.
Well now wouldn't it be nice to have starters who made it to the lineup a 4th time to have to worry about it?
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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All of the data indicates that starters typically regress through the lineup, with heavy regression through the "3rd and 4th time", so it would seem to me that you are just being kind of an idiot here.

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Nineteen67

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Dec 12, 2017
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Personally, I hope he's willing to do whatever gives the team the best chance to win. That often means pulling the starter "early" in a close game.

Starting pitcher ERA in 2018:
1st time through the order: 3.45
2nd time through the order: 4.17
3rd time through the order: 5.47
4th time through the order: 6.69

You might think it makes the game worse (because tradition and stuff) but if the Jays don't head in that direction they're going to get left behind and consistently lose games to less talented teams. Yay?

Analytics has made the game worse. If a starter is dominant through 6 or 7, you don't take him out just because he is going through the lineup 3rd or 4th time. I hope this new guy is not like that.

What are the 3rd and 4th times through stats if the Starter is “dominant” in the first 2 times through?

I suspect most managers, under normal circumstances and pitch counts, would let starter continue if he’s dominating the lineup.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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What are the 3rd and 4th times through stats if the Starter is “dominant” in the first 2 times through?

I suspect most managers, under normal circumstances and pitch counts, would let starter continue if he’s dominating the lineup.

It doesn't matter how "dominant" a pitcher is the first time through the order... his stats get worse the third time through.

DeGrom - 0.68, 1.93, 2.30
Verlander - 2.31, 1.83, 3.86
Kershaw - 2.28, 2.68, 3.67

And so on and so on with the exception of a few random one-year anomalies. Sure, Third Time Through DeGrom is as effective as most relievers and Verlander and Kershaw are still excellent, but the point is that they get significantly worse to the point where you have to weigh whether a reliever would be expected to perform better. And these are the elite of the elite. Stroman and Sanchez both have ERAs over 5.00 the third time through - in a close game, there's no way they should be allowed to face the opposing lineup a third time.

And to actually answer your question, the fourth time through is probably a good barometer for how well pitchers do late in games when they're dominating since you don't get to face batters for a fourth time unless you've been excellent up until that point. And boy are the fourth-time-through numbers ever ugly. Scherzer at 5.93 for his career, DeGrom at 5.14, Kluber at 6.71, Verlander at 5.77...
 

Nineteen67

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It doesn't matter how "dominant" a pitcher is the first time through the order... his stats get worse the third time through.

DeGrom - 0.68, 1.93, 2.30
Verlander - 2.31, 1.83, 3.86
Kershaw - 2.28, 2.68, 3.67

And so on and so on with the exception of a few random one-year anomalies. Sure, Third Time Through DeGrom is as effective as most relievers and Verlander and Kershaw are still excellent, but the point is that they get significantly worse to the point where you have to weigh whether a reliever would be expected to perform better. And these are the elite of the elite. Stroman and Sanchez both have ERAs over 5.00 the third time through - in a close game, there's no way they should be allowed to face the opposing lineup a third time.

And to actually answer your question, the fourth time through is probably a good barometer for how well pitchers do late in games when they're dominating since you don't get to face batters for a fourth time unless you've been excellent up until that point. And boy are the fourth-time-through numbers ever ugly. Scherzer at 5.93 for his career, DeGrom at 5.14, Kluber at 6.71, Verlander at 5.77...

Exactly what you’d expect to see.
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
88,343
31,715
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People are going to gush over the Eduardo Nunez 13th inning catch the way they did that time Jeter flew into the stands. And it's stupid becuase in both cases the guy made the catch well before he flung himself over the railing. 99 times out of 100 he would just crash into the fence and stay in bounds and people would be excited by the catch but not losing their minds over it.

EDIT: and there it is. Vasgergian just called it a "Derek Jeter moment."

That Jeter play is the most overrated Jeter play in the playbook of overrated Jeter plays.

It's gotten so loony that Buck frigging Martinez is basically being the voice of reason here.
 
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nilan30

Registered User
Jan 14, 2004
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I'm still watching at 315 and I don't really even care who wins. Hopefully la I think as long as Michado doesn't end it
 
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