All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread Pt 10 (45 Days to the Trade Deadline)

[spockBokk]

I'm bored, waiting on a report to run at work that's taking forever, so here goes a thought I just had that will never happen but it's trade deadline season...

IF, the Haula discontent becomes a distraction AND the braintrust is truly interested in DeMelo, I wonder how much Pageau and DeMelo would cost. You'd have to think in such a scenario that you're getting a 2nd + prospect return for Haula. So what about this here proposal, assuming you could pull off such craziness:

Trade 1-Haula and CAR 3rd to EDM for Puljujarvi + 2nd

Trade 2-Puljuarvi + EDM 2nd + conditional 1st (if it Pageau re-signs it becomes a 1st, if not the CAR 2nd) for Pageau + DeMelo

Might need to add another pick in there to OTT, not sure, but I could certainly live with that.

Edit-Would probably need to work TVR/Edmundson/Fleury in there somehow too...erg, too many moving pieces...

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

teams are really starting to awaken to the value of draft picks, at least the smart teams are. giving up 1st round picks for deadline rentals less than star caliber is something you're not going to see much longer. the risk/reward just doesn't make sense when you have at least 10-15 buyers per season and only 1 of them gets truly rewarded for it. picks can help you build a great team for many years. rentals can build you a great team for 3 months. it's bad asset management to invest in a team that's at the bubble. it's not going to solve the problem of your mediocrity long term. it's surprising that it took this long even to see how low the "success rate" was on those moves. that kind of asset management keeps you mired somewhere in the 7th to 10th range in your conference for years. i was relieved to hear that dundon seems to have an awareness of that and while it's fun to have an illusion of cup contention, you're mostly paying for the optics.

I think GMs have been cognizant of that the entire time. It just gets lost in the pre-deadline hype every year.

1st Round Picks Moved
Year	Total	Guaranteed	Conditional	Players Dealt
2010	1	1	0	Kovalchuk
2011	1	1	0	Kaberle
2012	1	1	0	Gaustad
2013	2	1	1	Iginla, Jagr
2014	2	1	1	Miller (Condition On Other Pick Not Met)
2015	3	3	0	Sekera, Vermette, Franson
2016	2	1	1	Ladd, Russell (Condition Not Met)
2017	3	2	1	Hanzal, Shattenkirk, Eaves
2018	3	2	1	Kane, Nash, Stastny
2019	5	2	3	Duchene (Condition On Other Pick Not Met), Hayes, Zuccarello (Condition On Both Picks Not Met)
AVG	1.88	1.5	0.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There's a tendency on HF to apply what used to be the Gaustad-test and is now probably the Hanzal-test to any rental. If Hanzal returned a 1st... That's why the expectation of the trade board as a whole is that 10 impending UFAs will return a 1st every year. Obviously, that's not the case historically. GMs are typically risk adverse when it comes to that contract term. Only 2 guaranteed 1sts will move in a good year. They'll often protect themselves from trading a late teens/early twenties pick for a guy that will walk in a few months by making it conditional on the player re-signing or a conference final appearance, ensuring that the return was justified by team success and making the pick no better than 28OA.

 

[ONO94]

Didn't 2014 have the Ryan Miller trade involving a 2015 1st and Martin St.Louis trade involving a 2015 1st and 2014 2nd which would turn into a 1st if NYR made the Eastern Conf finals (they did)? And 2015 had 1sts involved in the Yandle and Coburn trades as well.

And 2013 had Pominville and Bouwmeester--I think the Miller trade listed is the 2014 as well.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Didn't 2014 have the Ryan Miller trade involving a 2015 1st and Martin St.Louis trade involving a 2015 1st and 2014 2nd which would turn into a 1st if NYR made the Eastern Conf finals (they did)? And 2015 had 1sts involved in the Yandle and Coburn trades as well.

And 2013 had Pominville and Bouwmeester--I think the Miller trade listed is the 2014 as well.

You're right on the Miller trade. I lumped it in 2013 for some reason. I fixed it.

St. Louis, Yandle, Coburn, Pominville and Bouwmeester all had an extra year, which is a difference maker. That list is just rentals.

 

[vorbis]

given that the Canes basically paid, what was it, $4 million? in Marleau's bonus money to get the Toronto 1st rounder, it would seem to be counter-intuitive to then take that pick and flip it in a deal to pay more player salary (i.e. for a rental). unless Dundon truly thinks future 1st rounders are inherently worth north of what they paid in actual cash for Marleau's bonus, trading that pick would seem to be creating a sunk cost out of thin air, almost. so for that reason I would doubt it's for sale for any asset that isn't under team control long term.

 

[ONO94]

You're right on the Miller trade. I lumped it in 2013 for some reason. I fixed it.

St. Louis, Yandle, Coburn, Pominville and Bouwmeester all had an extra year, which is a difference maker. That list is just rentals.

Makes sense, thanks for the clarification. And personally, I am not a big fan of giving up 1sts for rentals--looking at the list off-hand, Vermette is only one on the list to actually win the Cup. If a player is truly worth a 1st, then the team acquiring usually has too many holes to fix or not enough time to assimilate the acquire player effectively into the system. I think the Vermette situation worked out like the Weight trade for the Canes by giving the Blackhawks a complimentary piece instead of someone who needed to be star for them to win it all.

 

[geehaad]

the Weight trade for the Canes

14 years ago today, btw

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Speaking of potential 1st round picks being traded, Bruins are now trying to trade Backes with a sweetener this deadline after he cleared waivers and refused to report to Providence. All that I will say is good luck on getting any contending team to sign off on that until the offseason. Maybe Columbus would take it considering that they have boatloads of cap and that they also traded a bunch of picks last year for rentals.

 

[AD Skinner]

14 years ago today, btw

 

[bleedgreen]

Speaking of potential 1st round picks being traded, Bruins are now trying to trade Backes with a sweetener this deadline after he cleared waivers and refused to report to Providence. All that I will say is good luck on getting any contending team to sign off on that until the offseason. Maybe Columbus would take it considering that they have boatloads of cap and that they also traded a bunch of picks last year for rentals.

Lebrun reported tonight that the Bruins and Backes have a lot of mutual respect for each other and they’ve offered to him that he doesn’t have to go to the AHL. They don’t want him to feel more disrespected.

So he didn’t refuse to go.

And please no rentals for a first.

 

[GoldiFox]

The Backes situation is nearly identical to Marleau's. Whatever team takes him on will pay about ~$4 million for the rest of the year plus the off-season buyout. In return they should get a similar return of a 1st round pick.

 

[Svechhammer]

This team needs a serious improvement at goalie if it has any hope of making the postseason.

If the deadline passes and we are still saddled with Mrazek and Reimer, that's our signal they've given up on this one and are planning for next year.

 

[Wolfpuck]

This is not a playoff team. Sorry. Not in this division. Either make improvements or sell off pieces. Standing pat gets us nowhere.

 

[Canes]

This is not a playoff team. Sorry. Not in this division. Either make improvements or sell off pieces. Standing pat gets us nowhere.

I'd like to see us call up a Checker or two to see if they can give us a spark before we make our decision to buy/sell. And if any of the current players sulk like Haula apparently did, trade they ass.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Give me DeMelo, trade Edmundson and forward, call up Bean.

dont trade for anything of value

Aho-Staal-Turbo
Svech-Haula-Necas
Dzingel/Nino-Wally-Foegele
McGinn/Nino-Martinook-Williams

Slavin-Pesce
Gardiner-Fleury
Bean-DeMelo
TVR

if we are going to balance the lines can we put the better scorers with the biggest O black hole. Also, turns Aho loose. Aho and Turbo are capable of playing against the top line.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think the third pair with TVR and Fleury is the best it’s been all season. If Jake can pick it up and mix well with Pesce we don’t need another defenseman other than a depth guy. Unless we’re moving out Edmunson for a righty maybe.

Fleury is becoming the second pair lefty to me.

 

[Svechhammer]

Give me DeMelo, trade Edmundson and forward, call up Bean.

dont trade for anything of value

Aho-Staal-Turbo
Svech-Haula-Necas
Dzingel/Nino-Wally-Foegele
McGinn/Nino-Martinook-Williams

Slavin-Pesce
Gardiner-Fleury
Bean-DeMelo
TVR

if we are going to balance the lines can we put the better scorers with the biggest O black hole. Also, turns Aho loose. Aho and Turbo are capable of playing against the top line.

Putting Staal on the Ago and Turbo line is offensively going to cut the performance of two of our better players off at the knees and little else offensively. It's unfortunate how bad he's become when we have the puck but something has to be done here. I don't have the numbers and so I could be way off, but it doesn't even seem like he's dominating the faceoff circle like he used to.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Putting Staal on the Ago and Turbo line is offensively going to cut the performance of two of our better players off at the knees and little else offensively. It's unfortunate how bad he's become when we have the puck but something has to be done here. I don't have the numbers and so I could be way off, but it doesn't even seem like he's dominating the faceoff circle like he used to.

He’s at 54.8%.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Putting Staal on the Ago and Turbo line is offensively going to cut the performance of two of our better players off at the knees and little else offensively. It's unfortunate how bad he's become when we have the puck but something has to be done here. I don't have the numbers and so I could be way off, but it doesn't even seem like he's dominating the faceoff circle like he used to.

TBH, I don’t like it either but, Rod is gonna put scorers with Staal. Those two will be a lot more dangerous against top lines than Svech and Foegele. Got to get Svech going.

 

[bleedgreen]

Rod would play Staal as his number one center if he could. He isn’t going anywhere. If you want Svech to play with more offensive players he needs to drop to the third line with Necas.

Rod wants Svech to be a grinding checker. He figures the skill level will show no matter what. He would staple him to Staal’s ass if he could, hoping that the kid will absorb as much defensive minded play as possible.

This is the way it’s probably gonna be until Staal’s gone. It’s like Faulk, if the team wants something different Waddell needs to step in and take away Rod’s favorite toys.

 

[CandyCanes]

Finally Svech is off Staal’s line. Tho we now have Turbo with Staal.

 

[CandyCanes]

Slavin - TVR first pairing lol

 

[GoldiFox]

Slavin - TVR first pairing lol

Hopefully he's a placeholder for some pending trade. Certainly Edmundson can't continue in the role after last night. He was embarrassingly bad.

 

[Canes]

Fleury needs a chance next to Pesce as well. He's one of the more consistent d-men for us when he plays. He doesn't have the offensive upside of Gardiner but at least he won't make even the most average skaters look like Pavel Bure in a foot race. We might get some production from Gardiner vs. weaker matchups too.

 

[DougieSmash]

The offense is bit of mediocre. I'd love another top 9 forward.