All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread - off-season chaos edition

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I think we are 2 years away from true cup contention.

We need to get Dougie and Svech on contract and then go from there.

Lets see what we get from Necas, Suzuki, Rees, Jarvis, etc and go from there on what complimentary pieces need to be added.

Of course we have to figure out what to do in net as well.

In about 2 years with Svech presumably has one more year of bridge and Necas is getting bridged or signing a Ehlers like deal, we start really pushing acquiring the big pieces. For now, I stay away from Laine or another big piece that requires a big contract over the next 2 years.

 

[emptyNedder]

Not only was he much better according to my eye test, when Dougie went down last season he had a +/- of +30 through 47 games, something like 10 points better than the next best Cane at the time.

So a big question to me is: has Hamilton raised his defensive game to another level, one that we can expect him to maintain going forward? I think there's a good chance of it, due in large part to my "Slavin/Pesce Theory".

BleedGreen is going to hate this. Dougie's game might have been elevated, but a big part of that was when he was playing RD behind a defensively sound RW.

With TOI GF GA

Necas 136 8 4
Teravainen 189 16 3
Staal 193 7 7
None of above 191 7 5

All of the numbers indicate <2 5-on-5 goals per 60 except with Staal. That is sound defense. But when Dougie had TT playing wing on the same side, he was significantly more productive offensively and gave up <1 goal per 60. So maybe it wasn't just Slavin/Pesce.

 

[GoldiFox]

BleedGreen is going to hate this. Dougie's game might have been elevated, but a big part of that was when he was playing RD behind a defensively sound RW.

With TOI GF GA

Necas 136 8 4
Teravainen 189 16 3
Staal 193 7 7
None of above 191 7 5

All of the numbers indicate <2 5-on-5 goals per 60 except with Staal. That is sound defense. But when Dougie had TT playing wing on the same side, he was significantly more productive offensively and gave up <1 goal per 60. So maybe it wasn't just Slavin/Pesce.

The line was significantly more productive offensively. This data doesn't show what Hamilton's individual production was with his linemates. And because we don't have that data this argument becomes a chicken-and-egg.

One could just as easily use this same data to flip the argument and show that it was actually TT that benefitted offensively from playing with Hamilton because Dougie was so defensively sound.

Teravainen w/ Hamilton = 73.9% GF% (5v5)
Teravainen w/o Hamilton = 48.2% GF% (5v5)

 

[emptyNedder]

The line was significantly more productive offensively. This data doesn't show what Hamilton's individual production was with his linemates. And because we don't have that data this argument becomes a chicken-and-egg.

One could just as easily use this same data to flip the argument and show that it was actually TT that benefitted offensively from playing with Hamilton because Dougie was so defensively sound.

Teravainen w/ Hamilton = 73.9% GF% (5v5)
Teravainen w/o Hamilton = 48.2% GF% (5v5)

2018/2019

Hamilton/TT 38GF/17GA in 646 minutes
Faulk/TT 19GF/9GA in 374 minutes

Appears the argument leans TT since Hamilton was strong defensively with TT during a season where he wasn't that strong overall. And Faulk was Faulk.

 

[LakeLivin]

2018/2019

Hamilton/TT 38GF/17GA in 646 minutes
Faulk/TT 19GF/9GA in 374 minutes

Appears the argument leans TT since Hamilton was strong defensively with TT during a season where he wasn't that strong overall. And Faulk was Faulk.

I'm not weighing in on your main point, but I would argue that in 2018/19 Faulk wasn't Faulk (if that makes any sense). I'd been a long time critic of his D prior to that season. Seemed like the effort wasn't consistently there, I saw him literally jumping out the way of shots at critical times instead of blocking them, and of course there was his decision making. Tough to completely fix the decision making, but other than that I give him credit for upping his D to a higher level in 2018/19. Matter of fact, that's what birthed the "Pesce-Slavin" theory I applied to Hamilton. Faulk had to see how they parleyed actual defense into professional success even when the offensive production wasn't there. And he had to sit through post game sessions breaking down game tape, which I've got to believe would be pretty motivating if not actually embarrassing to him at times. [Of course, add in a side of Brindy's emphasis on all around play.] To my eyes Faulk was a different player in 2018-19 than he was before that.

Anyways, sorry for the tangent, carry on, lol.

 

[emptyNedder]

in 2018/19 Faulk wasn't Faulk (if that makes any sense). I'd been a long time critic of his D prior to that season. Seemed like the effort wasn't consistently there, I saw him literally jumping out the way of shots at critical times instead of blocking them, and of course there was his decision making. Tough to completely fix the decision making, but other than that I give him credit for upping his D to a higher level in 2018/19. Matter of fact, that's what birthed the "Pesce-Slavin" theory I applied to Hamilton.

This is quickly becoming my favorite discussion. It is cross-pollinating the TT and Hamilton discussions while positing a theory that has some relation to my own PSF.

Here are the numbers for Faulk in 18/19:

With Teravainen: 382 TOI (6 1/2 games), 19GF, 9GA
Without: 997 TOI (16 1/2 games), 39GF, 37GA

I agree that Faulk was better defensively in 18/19, I would say it was being partnered with Pesce for close to half the season. Regardless, Faulk's GA/60 without TT was 2.23, with TT it was 1.41.

That is one interesting data point. The other thing that stands out about Slavin and Pesce is that they not only make opponents less effective, but seldom do they get out of position. This equates to low PIM. Do either Hamilton in 19/20 or Faulk 18/19 have significantly lower PIM compared to career averages?

Hamilton 19/20 = .68 PIM per game; career .64.

Faulk 18/19 = .57 PIM per game; career .47.

It would be interesting (if anyone knows of the site that provides this data, let me know) to see if Hamilton and/or Faulk committed fewer penalties while on the ice with TT.

As I said, I am fascinated by the discussion, love the theory, and look forward to more angles to consider.

 

[LakeLivin]

This is quickly becoming my favorite discussion. It is cross-pollinating the TT and Hamilton discussions while positing a theory that has some relation to my own PSF.

Here are the numbers for Faulk in 18/19:

With Teravainen: 382 TOI (6 1/2 games), 19GF, 9GA
Without: 997 TOI (16 1/2 games), 39GF, 37GA

I agree that Faulk was better defensively in 18/19, I would say it was being partnered with Pesce for close to half the season. Regardless, Faulk's GA/60 without TT was 2.23, with TT it was 1.41.

That is one interesting data point. The other thing that stands out about Slavin and Pesce is that they not only make opponents less effective, but seldom do they get out of position. This equates to low PIM. Do either Hamilton in 19/20 or Faulk 18/19 have significantly lower PIM compared to career averages?

Hamilton 19/20 = .68 PIM per game; career .64.

Faulk 18/19 = .57 PIM per game; career .47.

It would be interesting (if anyone knows of the site that provides this data, let me know) to see if Hamilton and/or Faulk committed fewer penalties while on the ice with TT.

As I said, I am fascinated by the discussion, love the theory, and look forward to more angles to consider.

Do you by chance have easy access to the stats for Faulk with and without Turbo in 17/18?

On a different note, I wonder if part of the reason for Faulk's increase in PIM in 18/19 might be due to an increase in his DGASI (Defensive Give A S*** Index)? He's always had some lapses in judgement like jumping at the wrong time. Seems like in the more distant past I recall seeing him just give up on a play after making a mistake. I wonder if that last season he might have committed more penalties in trying to make up for mistakes? (question, not saying I think that's necessarily the case)

 

[ClarkBolzano]

Clark are u from Bolzano? I would have been happy to get my hands on Pulju btw.

Yes i am Bolzano,a small Town in northern Italy, close to the Austrian border where people speak german and italiano but originallY i am from Köln in Germany.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

With Crawford's unexpected retirement, the Canes may now be in a good spot to maneuver for either Kuemper or Fleury+assets, as Jersey now needs a plan B to groom Blackwood. I wonder if either Mrazek or Reimer would be appealing to the Devils.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Jersey seems like a good spot for Howard, they arent competing for anything in that crazy division.

 

[Derailed75]

With Crawford's unexpected retirement, the Canes may now be in a good spot to maneuver for either Kuemper or Fleury+assets, as Jersey now needs a plan B to groom Blackwood. I wonder if either Mrazek or Reimer would be appealing to the Devils.

Those 2 are upgrades but I dont see them as massive upgrades at what they would cost. Unless we could literally steal them I would pass

 

[cptjeff]

Those 2 are upgrades but I dont see them as massive upgrades at what they would cost. Unless we could literally steal them I would pass

I wouldn't do Fleury under any circumstances. He's a sometimes very good but highly unreliable goalie with an albatross of a contract. Kuemper I would do, but so close to the start of the season. As of now, I'm perfectly happy with what we've got. Mrazek is as good as anybody in the league when he's on his game, and Reims is the ideal backup/1B.

 

[Unsustainable]

What about Raanta?

 

[Lempo]

What about Raanta?

*currently imagining Raanta in a life jacket tied to a sail boat mast*

 

[Stickpucker]

I will say that any Laine talks will have some extension attached to it. At least IMO, I probably wouldn't acquire him unless you knew for sure that Dougie wanted Karlsson money (which I strongly doubt). If Winnipeg is willing to give him that (which they might, because their defense is a barren wasteland), then do a Laine-for-Hamilton sign-and-trade deal a la Heatley-for-Hossa.

I can't see Dougie wanting to play in the peg

 

[AD Skinner]

*currently imagining Raanta in a life jacket tied to a sail boat mast*

I just let the boat do all the work, thats my secret

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I wouldn't do Fleury under any circumstances. He's a sometimes very good but highly unreliable goalie with an albatross of a contract. Kuemper I would do, but so close to the start of the season. As of now, I'm perfectly happy with what we've got. Mrazek is as good as anybody in the league when he's on his game, and Reims is the ideal backup/1B.

It depends, IMO. Vegas has a late first and New Jersey's likely-to-be very high second. I'd do a deal for a 30% retained Fleury if I also got, say, Elvenes and NJ's 2nd. Elvenes was one of the AHL's best rookies last year at age-20.

 

[DaveG]

What about Raanta?

The ability is there, the health questions are still there too though

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

I can't see Dougie wanting to play in the peg

I can’t see why anyone would want to live in Winnipeg and I have family there.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I can’t see why anyone would want to live in Winnipeg and I have family there.

If Dougie was paid Karlsson money, he could probably play anywhere, JS. I'd be fine with having 1 elite guy on our roster paid at UFA market value (or even slightly over) considering that the majority of our core is still at RFA age or on RFA extensions. The issue is when you have 3 or 4 of those.

 

[bleedgreen]

It depends, IMO. Vegas has a late first and New Jersey's likely-to-be very high second. I'd do a deal for a 30% retained Fleury if I also got, say, Elvenes and NJ's 2nd. Elvenes was one of the AHL's best rookies last year at age-20.

But Fleury isn’t a very good goalie anymore. If we make a move to get a goalie, I’d rather have a goalie who’s pretty much a safe bet to be notably better than what we have. I don’t care about what value we squeeze out of Vegas. If we trade for a goalie.....get a better goalie.

I wouldn’t assume Fleury is any better than what we have. He may be great in the room, but I’d rather just have someone who gets in the way of pucks.

 

[Canes]

Honestly as much as I wanted us to make a splash and bring in a goalie this offseason, both Mrazek and Reimer are loved by their teammates and unless it's a clear and definite upgrade, I'm not making a move for a goalie now.

 

[HisIceness]

Speaking of goalies, last opportunity for Ned? Will he even sniff the NHL this season?

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Speaking of goalies, last opportunity for Ned? Will he even sniff the NHL this season?

Unless there’s an injury I don’t think he’ll play.

 

[MessierII]

Where are you guys thinking Necas slots in 5 on 5 and on the PP? Has he had a good camp?