All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread - off-season chaos edition

[AD Skinner]

I dont know if they will let martinook go unless he is demanding more money. They clearly love him and he's a useful bottom 6er. Agree on McGinn and Dzingle though

 

[Lempo]

So if he were to waive the NMC for the purposes of the ED, would it only be for the ED or would it be for the remainder of the contract?

I understand it can be waived for the ED only and still continue to be binding afterwards.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I dont know if they will let martinook go unless he is demanding more money. They clearly love him and he's a useful bottom 6er. Agree on McGinn and Dzingle though

I could see Marty returning, especially if COVID is still suppressing the market. It does depend, however, on how our youth in Chicago progresses this season. That's why I'm going to keep an eye on the AHL this year, particularly David Cotton. We certainly should prevent our lineup from becoming a Leafs-like studs and duds, however, I think that at least having a few spots open for youth to play in is healthy. If they don't pan out, upgrade at the deadline. As far as the cap is concerned, however, I'm not nearly as concerned as BDC is. We have plenty of desirable players on our team with moveable contracts.

 

[bleedgreen]

If Gards or Skjei have a big rebound year, I can see Seattle accepting either of them for a small pick, maybe in the 3rd round. I personally would just let Seattle take Bean or Fleury, though, because I see both Skjei and Gards having decent trade value after the 2-year flat cap period ends (again, IF they rebound), but mainly because I love watching our scouts draft and because really, you only lose one guy. Geekie is going to get protected unless the Canes go 4-4-1 instead of 7-3-1.

One thing that I will say is that if Svech is bridged Brayden Point-style, as rumored, a Dougie extension won't get us into cap problems next year even with Skjei, Nino, and Gards on the books. Remember, Mrazek, Reimer, Foegele, McGinn, Martinook, and Dzingel are ALL expiring contracts, and the UFA market is COVID-suppressed, meaning that filling out quality roster depth should come unusually cheap, at least for one more year. If David Cotton and/or Steven Lorentz is deemed ready for a 4th line role, even better. Heck, depending on how many young guys are ready, I wouldn't be shocked if Carolina ends up having space for yet another cap dump.

I think you’re being overly optimistic on replacements for all those fellas being cheap.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I think you’re being overly optimistic on replacement for all those fellas being cheap.

Oh, no, I'm not saying that they're ALL going to be cheap. That's asking to become Toronto (or Winnipeg's defensive dumpster fire at the start of last season). I do think, however, that enough of them will be replaced from within that I'm not all that concerned about the cap next season, especially with Hamilton's and Svech's extension AAV likely to be COVID-suppressed by a million or so, which is IMO the difference between what Hall ($9M to $8M) and Pietrangelo ($9.8M to $8.8M) would've gotten pre and post-COVID. Contrary to popular opinion, flat caps are IMO friendly to incumbent clubs.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

This is where I don't agree, and probably where my evaluation of the team's cap situation differs from yours. I think that you can only view Skjei/Gards as an inefficiency IF you value goaltending more than defense. I think that the FO views defense as something that is far more controllable, play-wise, than goaltending, which is why they've maneuvered around the edges on the goalies and have, at least so far, loaded up on defense. That may change, of course, depending on which young guys emerge over the next couple of years and which players want to come, but until then, I think their actions speak for themselves, and not the rumors that may or may not have been true.

They've had the flexibility to over-spend on defense because a core forward has been extremely cheap over this two-year period they've been in charge.

Frankly, I'm skeptical that it was a strategic choice to utilize Svechnikov's ELC in this way rather than circumstance:

- In the Summer of 2018, they tried to trade Faulk, replacing him with de Haan, who they felt offered good value. The market for Faulk wasn't there and in lieu of taking the L in that regard, they just went with it. It worked out well enough.

- In the Summer of 2019, they dumped de Haan, for reasons that are argued on this board to this day; I think it was inefficient cap distribution. Later in the offseason, they signed Gardiner, who again they felt offered good value, and seriously looked to trade Faulk. The intent was to trade him for Kase, which would have put the amount spent on the 3rd pairing in the $3 mil range. Faulk didn't sign in Anaheim and the alternative required that they retain and take back Edmundson to make the cap work. Again, they just went with it.

- Gardiner was a bust in 19-20 to the extent that there were reports that they were trying to Kaberle him mid-season. They needed something on the left side of the 2nd pairing, though, and Fleury was too much of a gamble at that time. Hence, the Skjei trade.

- In the Fall of 2020, both Gardiner and Skjei were in the rumor mill. In a flat cap environment, the latter became hard to move for value and the former became hard to move period. The end result is using the savings that the last year of Svechnikov's ELC provide to overspend on a 3rd pairing defenseman.

Keumper is the best and most logical solution at this point. He carries a cap him of $4.5 mil for 21-22. Nedeljkovic as the backup at the league min, which many have disagreed with at a conceptual level, only saves $1.2 mil. A Mrazek/Nedljkovic-like platoon may free up another mil or so, but I don't know how they would have confidence in something like that. It's just hard to fathom prioritizing the 3rd pairing of the defense in that way.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Signing dougie to a 8.25 m x 5, Svech to a 6.5 x 2, Foegele at 3 x 3, and assuming we have two ELCs on offense added

we have 9.388 million for two goalies, 1 starting forward, and any potential depth roster pieces. That is with a 28 million dollar defense.

Now lets assume Geekie has an okay year as a 4C and warrants a 2 year extension, 1.25m per.

We have 8.138 million for 2 goalies and depth pieces.

Maybe we would be lucky and eat some salary for Nino to get a better option at 2LW.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Signing dougie to a 8.25 m x 5, Svech to a 6.5 x 2, Foegele at 3 x 3, and assuming we have two ELCs on offense added

we have 9.388 million for two goalies, 1 starting forward, and any potential depth roster pieces. That is with a 28 million dollar defense.

Now lets assume Geekie has an okay year as a 4C and warrants a 2 year extension, 1.25m per.

We have 8.138 million for 2 goalies and depth pieces.

Maybe we would be lucky and eat some salary for Nino to get a better option at 2LW.

$8M for 2 goalies and depth isn't that difficult to pull off. Even if you're fundamentally against Ned as a backup, other veteran backups are not that expensive during COVID. The ELC additions would most likely be 4th liners, not a Jarvis or Suzuki-type, at least not yet. I'm considerably more concerned about our cap situation, say, after the flat cap era, than I am right at this moment. A rising cap is when clubs start doing unbelievably idiotic things to light cash on fire. When some zig, I zag. I'm considerably more fearful of what our organization might lose after COVID than I am right now. Almost certainly it's going to take a preposterous amount of cash to keep Aho and Turbo in 4 years. Hopefully by that time, Jarvis and Suzuki are ready and a few more prospects pan out.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

They've had the flexibility to over-spend on defense because a core forward has been extremely cheap over this two-year period they've been in charge.

Frankly, I'm skeptical that it was a strategic choice to utilize Svechnikov's ELC in this way rather than circumstance:

- In the Summer of 2018, they tried to trade Faulk, replacing him with de Haan, who they felt offered good value. The market for Faulk wasn't there and in lieu of taking the L in that regard, they just went with it. It worked out well enough.

- In the Summer of 2019, they dumped de Haan, for reasons that are argued on this board to this day; I think it was inefficient cap distribution. Later in the offseason, they signed Gardiner, who again they felt offered good value, and seriously looked to trade Faulk. The intent was to trade him for Kase, which would have put the amount spent on the 3rd pairing in the $3 mil range. Faulk didn't sign in Anaheim and the alternative required that they retain and take back Edmundson to make the cap work. Again, they just went with it.

- Gardiner was a bust in 19-20 to the extent that there were reports that they were trying to Kaberle him mid-season. They needed something on the left side of the 2nd pairing, though, and Fleury was too much of a gamble at that time. Hence, the Skjei trade.

- In the Fall of 2020, both Gardiner and Skjei were in the rumor mill. In a flat cap environment, the latter became hard to move for value and the former became hard to move period. The end result is using the savings that the last year of Svechnikov's ELC provide to overspend on a 3rd pairing defenseman.

Keumper is the best and most logical solution at this point. He carries a cap him of $4.5 mil for 21-22. Nedeljkovic as the backup at the league min, which many have disagreed with at a conceptual level, only saves $1.2 mil. A Mrazek/Nedljkovic-like platoon may free up another mil or so, but I don't know how they would have confidence in something like that. It's just hard to fathom prioritizing the 3rd pairing of the defense in that way.

I think that I have this viewpoint that whatever fans on this board think is going to be difficult to pull off, the FO will probably find a way to do it without too much of a struggle. To me, although I admittedly take an optimistic view about our club's future, the biggest challenge that this FO will have is not the flat cap era, but rather AFTER it. It's going to be interesting to see who stays and who goes when teams are finally able to spend insane amounts of cash on middling talent again. I just hope that they choose the right guys to keep and the right guys to trade or outright let go in UFA, because IMO the toughest choices are going to be when other clubs are readying their Brinks trucks to do something really stupid. This was Doug Wilson's and Ken Holland's major downfalls these past few years, and I hope that it isn't our FO's, too. It's tempting when the pressure is high, even for GMs that I still highly regard like Wilson, to sign (actual) albatrosses the further into the contention period.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

@TheRillestPaulFenton

this is what I put together. We can substitute anyone for Suzuki.

its very doable. We just need to start winning and making a bunch of money to keep everyone.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

@TheRillestPaulFenton

View attachment 379270

this is what I put together. We can substitute anyone for Suzuki.

its very doable. We just need to start winning and making a bunch of money to keep everyone.

Mine was very similar, except Cotton and Lorentz where Rees and Suzuki were, and Bean where Fleury is (expansion draft). No way are we going to play those two and Jarvis without a full year in the AHL unless they overperform to obscene levels in a training camp. Even if you're not confident enough in Nedeljkovic to be your backup for a Binnington-like starter, that still leaves you room for the status quo tandem in net. My point, as I've stated, is that the big thing to be nervous about for me is the end of the flat cap. That's where it gets really difficult to manage the core.

 

[bleedgreen]

Oh, no, I'm not saying that they're ALL going to be cheap. That's asking to become Toronto (or Winnipeg's defensive dumpster fire at the start of last season). I do think, however, that enough of them will be replaced from within that I'm not all that concerned about the cap next season, especially with Hamilton's and Svech's extension AAV likely to be COVID-suppressed by a million or so, which is IMO the difference between what Hall ($9M to $8M) and Pietrangelo ($9.8M to $8.8M) would've gotten pre and post-COVID. Contrary to popular opinion, flat caps are IMO friendly to incumbent clubs.

I could see a bridge deal for Svech....but I don’t see either Dougie or Svech taking less due to Covid. That’s also being optimistic. Top dogs aren’t taking pay cuts until we’re actually seeing them taking pay cuts. You can’t plan on that.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I could see a bridge deal for Svech....but I don’t see either Dougie or Svech taking less due to Covid. That’s also being optimistic. Top dogs aren’t taking pay cuts until we’re actually seeing them taking pay cuts. You can’t plan on that.

This is not wishful thinking, but a sad reality of the situation. I want these guys to get hugely paid, but with a flat cap that's unlikely to happen until the COVID effects are over. Pietrangelo and Krug, for example, took considerable pay cuts this offseason from what they were projected to earn just a year ago. Without COVID, Pietrangelo likely would've commanded $10M+ AAV. There have also been very few long-term RFA deals this cycle, with most RFAs taking discounts in exchange for bridges. So yes, COVID has had an impact at the top of the chain. That's no joke: pre-COVID, Hamilton was exactly the kind of player that some insane team would've offered $10M+ to in UFA. By those standards, the $8M range is a relative discount, and that's about where I expect him to sign.

 

[bleedgreen]

This is not wishful thinking, but a sad reality of the situation. I want these guys to get hugely paid, but with a flat cap that's unlikely to happen until the COVID effects are over. Pietrangelo and Krug, for example, took considerable pay cuts this offseason from what they were projected to earn just a year ago. Without COVID, Pietrangelo likely would've commanded $10M+ AAV. There have also been very few long-term RFA deals this cycle, with most RFAs taking discounts in exchange for bridges. So yes, COVID has had an impact at the top of the chain. That's no joke: pre-COVID, Hamilton was exactly the kind of player that some insane team would've offered $10M+ to in UFA. By those standards, the $8M range is a relative discount, and that's about where I expect him to sign.

I feel this is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. No one has said Dougie would get 10 plus. The guys on xm radio were speculating at least a month or two ago that he would get.....the 8 million you just mentioned. Why do you think Pietrangelo would’ve gotten 10 plus normally? The league has been evolving on these deals lately, it would’ve been pretty shocking for either of these two players to get 10 million. They’re defenseman. They’re both very good but neither of them are THAT good. Teams can look at how Doughty’s deal is aging and keep it in mind. Neither of these guys were as big as Doughty was at his best imo. Krug took a paycut from COVID? He’s an undersized pp guy. I love him but cmon. When Dougie gets 8 you can’t say you called it lol. No one has said he’s getting more, and he isn’t nearly as good defensively as Pietrangelo so he’s likely to make a little less than what he got.

If I read we gave Dougie ten million a year long term before or after COVID I would pass out. He’s not worth that. At all. Neither is Pietrangelo. Dougie isn’t the best defenseman on his own team let alone in the ten million range across the league.

Ps. I’ve said in the past and I half meant it, that if we can get Dougie for five years or less then offer him something crazy like ten million. Because it’s crazy and maybe he’d take it short term, and I’m just fantasizing what it would be like to get him for five years or less. Not because I think he’s worth ten million.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I feel this is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. No one has said Dougie would get 10 plus. The guys on xm radio were speculating at least a month or two ago that he would get.....the 8 million you just mentioned. Why do you think Pietrangelo would’ve gotten 10 plus normally? The league has been evolving on these deals lately, it would’ve been pretty shocking for either of these two players to get 10 million. They’re defenseman. They’re both very good but neither of them are THAT good. Teams can look at how Doughty’s deal is aging and keep it in mind. Neither of these guys were as big as Doughty was at his best imo. Krug took a payout from COVID? He’s an undersized pp guy. I love him but cmon. When Dougie gets 8 you can’t say you called it lol. No one has said he’s getting more, and he isn’t nearly as good defensively as Pietrangelo so he’s likely to make a little less than what he got.

If I read we gave Dougie ten million a year long term before or after COVID I would pass out. He’s not worth that. At all. Neither is Pietrangelo. Dougie isn’t the best defenseman on his own team let alone in the ten million range across the league.

Ps. I’ve said in the past and I half meant it, that if we can get Dougie for five years or less then offer him something crazy like ten million. Because it’s crazy and maybe he’d take it short term, and I’m just fantasizing what it would be like to get him for five years or less. Not because I think he’s worth ten million.

It's hard to make that case that Petro couldn't get $10M plus from someone before COVID when just the offseason right before the 'Roni, Karlsson got $11.5M for 8 years for similar quality of play and impact. I honestly do believe that the only reason that Petro didn't was because of rotten luck. Forget about how these contracts have aged: when revenues are going well and the cap is rising, there's ALWAYS someone in the league that's insane enough to give one of those to the top UFA on the market. Again, this is why the biggest threat to Carolina's contention window, IMO, isn't a flat cap, but rather the period right after that's over.

 

[bleedgreen]

It's hard to make that case that Petro couldn't get $10M plus from someone before COVID when just the offseason right before the 'Roni, Karlsson got $11.5M for 8 years for similar quality of play and impact. I honestly do believe that the only reason that Petro didn't was because of rotten luck. Forget about how these contracts have aged: when revenues are going well and the cap is rising, there's ALWAYS someone in the league that's insane enough to give one of those to the top UFA on the market. Again, this is why the biggest threat to Carolina's contention window, IMO, isn't a flat cap, but rather the period right after that's over.

I don’t fully disagree, but I do think you’re going past the point of reasonable expectation with your hopes of COVID and it’s effect on salaries. There’s no doubt guys at the bottom and the middle are gonna get squeezed, but I haven’t seen much for the top guys to say they’re feeling it yet. I don’t think the top guys will. They’re in demand and there’s always going to be hope that things will normalize, and you always have to improve your team. I count that Karlsson contract as another learning lesson that’s with Doughty’s. That one was just dumb as the player had already started dropping off a bit and they still did it.

I think in general we’ve seen a slow turn away from paying for past accomplishments and focusing on paying for the now. I don’t think you can throw a blanket statement that for sure someone would give Dougie 10+ if it wasn’t for Covid. Dudes rep went through the ringer and everyone knows he was in a good place to turn it around here. To me it’s like TT. Either one would be dumb to leave for more money as the road is unlikely to be more bump free than it is here. On the other side any gm would be a bit dumb to assume Dougie would fit in and produce this well elsewhere and sign him to 10m/7yr. That would be a crap contract from the day it was signed. I don’t think it would happen. Of course it could but it’s flimsy and speculative argument at this point.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I don’t fully disagree, but I do think you’re going past the point of reasonable expectation with your hopes of COVID and it’s effect on salaries. There’s no doubt guys at the bottom and the middle are gonna get squeezed, but I haven’t seen much for the top guys to say they’re feeling it yet. I don’t think the top guys will. They’re in demand and there’s always going to be hope that things will normalize, and you always have to improve your team. I count that Karlsson contract as another learning lesson that’s with Doughty’s. That one was just dumb as the player had already started dropping off a bit and they still did it.

I think in general we’ve seen a slow turn away from paying for past accomplishments and focusing on paying for the now. I don’t think you can throw a blanket statement that for sure someone would give Dougie 10+ if it wasn’t for Covid. Dudes rep went through the ringer and everyone knows he was in a good place to turn it around here. To me it’s like TT. Either one would be dumb to leave for more money as the road is unlikely to be more bump free than it is here. On the other side any gm would be a bit dumb to assume Dougie would fit in and produce this well elsewhere and sign him to 10m/7yr. That would be a crap contract from the day it was signed. I don’t think it would happen. Of course it could but it’s flimsy and speculative argument at this point.

Personally, I think the Karlsson contract was done out of pure psychosis. When a GM has gone THAT many times to the conference finals and championships without any hardware to prove it, this is the kind of thing that can happen. I still defend that signing, in that particular sense. Even though it's certainly not aging well, at least right now, it does speak to the crazy things that some people will do to keep chasing that cup. This is why I keep bringing up the fact that GMs are human, and that the temptation to create future albatrosses will always be there as long as the revenue is there and the ambition is at one's fingertips. Right now, the ambition is there but not the revenue, hence why you're not seeing truly terrible contracts being given out right now even to the elite guys. Once the revenue comes back, buyer beware.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Why would covid push down the aav of a hypothetical 4-6 year contract that kicks in for the 2021-22 season? Its a good bet you'll have full capacity back by the start of the 2021-22 season in October.

In any case, the problem i foresee wrt Hamilton isn't aav, its signing bonuses. What happens when carolina offers a 7.8 aav contract and Toronto counters with 7.6 but entirely in signing bonuses? No chance carolina matches.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Why would covid push down the aav of a hypothetical 4-6 year contract that kicks in for the 2021-22 season? Its a good bet you'll have full capacity back by the start of the 2021-22 season in October.

In any case, the problem i foresee wrt Hamilton isn't aav, its signing bonuses. What happens when carolina offers a 7.8 aav contract and Toronto counters with 7.6 but entirely in signing bonuses? No chance carolina matches.

It's not the COVID at that point, but the flat cap and lost revenue for the year before, that limits the AAV. Also, as far as bonuses are concerned, Montreal tried that with Aho, and it failed spectacularly. Dundon ain't Karmanos. He may be skimpy on ancillary things with our team, but he knows where the bread is buttered, and that's the players.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Also, as far as bonuses are concerned, Montreal tried that with Aho, and it failed spectacularly. Dundon ain't Karmanos.

Dundon didn't want to give aho any signing bonuses, and only did so when forced by circumstance.

It's not the COVID at that point, but the flat cap and lost revenue for the year before, that limits the AAV.

On a 4-6 year fa deal for an elite player, that kicks in when hockey will be, if not entirely back to normal, within clear site of the return.

The cap is tied to hrr. What would limit hrr in 2021-2022? I think you'll see highs in hrr with the addition of Seattle, the new us tv deal and your general hockey fan with cabin fever.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Dundon didn't want to give aho any signing bonuses, and only did so when forced by circumstance.

Sure, I agree with that. This would be yet another "forced circumstance", maybe even a worse one considering that there wouldn't be any draft compensation. If the organization views Hamilton as a core piece, like I do, then they'll do signing bonuses in a pinch to keep their man. That's my point.

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

Finnmedia claims Mikael Granlund is close to making a decision. Leading candidates CBJ and Canes. Any ideas on how he would fit to the roster and what line he would play? In case you are wondering, he can play center in a crunch but is way more effective as a winger. Good two-way, intelligent pass-first playmaker.

Here's the tweet they used as a source:

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Finnmedia claims Mikael Granlund is close to making a decision. Leading candidates CBJ and Canes. Any ideas on how he would fit to the roster and what line he would play? In case you are wondering, he can play center in a crunch but is way more effective as a winger. Good two-way, intelligent pass-first playmaker.

Here's the tweet they used as a source:

That's a 2 week old tweet lol. I still think that Columbus is the leaning favorite for Granlund, though.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Finnmedia claims Mikael Granlund is close to making a decision. Leading candidates CBJ and Canes. Any ideas on how he would fit to the roster and what line he would play? In case you are wondering, he can play center in a crunch but is way more effective as a winger. Good two-way, intelligent pass-first playmaker.

Here's the tweet they used as a source:

He'd probably play wing - we are pretty set with Aho-Trocheck-Staal down the middle.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

That's a 2 week old tweet lol. I still think that Columbus is the leaning favorite for Granlund, though.

might be referring to this