All-Purpose rant about the Expansion Draft, the VGK and Tallon

[RainingRats]

You dont have to. It's part of analytics is it not? You dont have to agree with it. But what your doing is your plugging and adding.

At least there is a method to reach that conclusion whether you agree or not, and you dont have to.

I hate to harken back to the NBA yet again, but the best players in history there add 14 wins per season. Michael Jordan, Lebron James, etc. 14. And these guys are in the argument of GOAT.

If your gonna say hockey is different, that's fine and dandy. But again, 20 wins would have made the Panthers over 100 points for the season.

Now, a different perspective. The Panthers were 205 GF and 231 GA last year. If you argue that adding Huberdeau would add 20 and subtract, lets say 15. I'd say thats believable. But even then, that's only a differential of what...9? Even then, that is a HUGE swing. Huge.

Can't just plug and play.


I just looked.

Calculating Point Shares | Hockey-Reference.com

It's derived from win shares in Basketball.

Huberdeau, in 2015-16, had 7.3 point shares, which is 3-4 wins.

What does a good coach add versus a bad coach? A good coach gets more wins out of his team than they should have and bad coach underperforms. Surely that is a key consideration here for a healthy Huberdeau.

 

[Chaos2k7]

Melting pot of reasons why last season was much worse than it should have been.

 

[Gentle Man]

What does a good coach add versus a bad coach? A good coach gets more wins out of his team than they should have and bad coach underperforms. Surely that is a key consideration here for a healthy Huberdeau.

This obviously has to be taken into consideration. If they actually let him coach the way he wanted, sure. The Goals against drops from 231. The Rowe Zone was pee wee caliber.

But again, 20 points added to the standings is Wayne Gretzky territory.

Gallant nor Huberdeau even touches this.

Roberto Luongo is 6th All time in Point shares. 6th. And he added 10.93 on average throughout his career. That is 5 -6 wins.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Adding at least 40-50+ more goals to the team last year would've been huge, nevermind the impact adding Huberdeau to the top has on the bottom-9.

We lost 23 one-goal games last season and got shut out 4 times...

See what Garrett has to say. Dom is very good but ask him if you want. Again, If you put Smith and Jam on this team instead of Petro Florida is +8. That's significant but it's not like they're an elite team with them. But see what he says.

edit: I saw he replied, I'm not twitter saavy. Don't Tell me About Heart had Crosby's 50 goal season as the best in his post lockout series and he was worth like 6.3 wins.

 

[batting1k]

See what Garrett has to say. Dom is very good but ask him if you want. Again, If you put Smith and Jam on this team instead of Petro Florida is +8. That's significant but it's not like they're an elite team with them. But see what he says.

Whatever they say is fine, but I wouldn't take it as gospel. Yeah you can't plug and play, but Huberdeau was basically a lock for 50 points at the very least last season. If the team gets off to a good start, guys start finding their roles, coach isn't fired, maybe things turn out differently.

Barkov also missed ~20 games.

I don't think it's fair to say we wouldn't have won 5 more games at the very least. And maybe 2 or 3 of the games past regulation we get the extra point, who knows. I don't think you can quantify something like that with a stat, where a guy didn't even play but you're trying to predict how he would've helped the team.

So are you also saying the current team would only have 2-3 fewer wins without Barkov? That's silly.
In that case, let's move Huberdeau and Barkov for more assets!

 

[GrumpyKelly]

Well

if Tallon is a moron, then the owners are even bigger morons.

Organization full of morons, how fitting. Sounds something that you would expect from the Panthers.

 

[KW]

You dont have to. It's part of analytics is it not? You dont have to agree with it. But what your doing is your plugging and adding.

At least there is a method to reach that conclusion whether you agree or not, and you dont have to.

I hate to harken back to the NBA yet again, but the best players in history there add 14 wins per season. Michael Jordan, Lebron James, etc. 14. And these guys are in the argument of GOAT.

If your gonna say hockey is different, that's fine and dandy. But again, 20 wins would have made the Panthers over 100 points for the season.

Now, a different perspective. The Panthers were 205 GF and 231 GA last year. If you argue that adding Huberdeau would add 20 and subtract, lets say 15. I'd say thats believable. But even then, that's only a differential of what...9? Even then, that is a HUGE swing. Huge.

Can't just plug and play.


I just looked.

Calculating Point Shares | Hockey-Reference.com

It's derived from win shares in Basketball.

Huberdeau, in 2015-16, had 7.3 point shares, which is 3-4 wins.

If you are talking 20 points? That is WAYNE GRETZKY territory.

So if Hubie's presence could have added 4 wins, that would make the point total 89.

But like others have said, the psychological impact may have been a multiplying factor. Gallant stays. Barkov doesn't get hurt for as long. Ekblad even maybe has a better year. Smith maybe has a better year. March on the other hand may do worse (good, because then Vegas won't want him!).

Anyhow, it's not inconceivable that the direct effect of having Hubie would cause a butterfly effect that just multiplies sufficiently from 7.3 to 12 points and a playoff spot.

 

[Gentle Man]

So if Hubie's presence could have added 4 wins, that would make the point total 89.

But like others have said, the psychological impact may have been a multiplying factor. Gallant stays. Barkov doesn't get hurt for as long. Ekblad even maybe has a better year. Smith maybe has a better year. March on the other hand may do worse (good, because then Vegas won't want him!).

Anyhow, it's not inconceivable that the direct effect of having Hubie would cause a butterfly effect that just multiplies sufficiently from 7.3 to 12 points and a playoff spot.

How does the bolded even happen?

 

[batting1k]

Through 2 periods, 1g 1a for Smith, 1a for Marchessault.

Easily one of the most boneheaded moves this franchise has ever made.

Career high in points for Smith and goal #20

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

Through 2 periods, 1g 1a for Smith, 1a for Marchessault.

Easily one of the most boneheaded moves this franchise has ever made.

Career high in points for Smith and goal #20

$7M for Vrbata and McGinn tho

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Whatever they say is fine, but I wouldn't take it as gospel. Yeah you can't plug and play, but Huberdeau was basically a lock for 50 points at the very least last season. If the team gets off to a good start, guys start finding their roles, coach isn't fired, maybe things turn out differently.

Barkov also missed ~20 games.

I don't think it's fair to say we wouldn't have won 5 more games at the very least. And maybe 2 or 3 of the games past regulation we get the extra point, who knows. I don't think you can quantify something like that with a stat, where a guy didn't even play but you're trying to predict how he would've helped the team.

So are you also saying the current team would only have 2-3 fewer wins without Barkov? That's silly.
In that case, let's move Huberdeau and Barkov for more assets!

I'm not going to argue anymore regarding Jonathan Huberdeau playing 50 games adding 5+ wins. It's insane, respectfully. Saying if he's healthy then maybe x doesn't happen then maybe y doesn't happen is semantics.

I could argue if Gudbranson was in the locker room last year Florida adds 30 points, you have no way of measuring it. Again, adding Smith and Jam with their current seasons gives Florida 8 points. I can just tell you how much he's worth based on calculations and you can agree or not. Same as baseball. A lot of fans think it's a useless measurable.

Barkov is worth 4-5 wins. That's 8 to 10 points, a significant amount. However, if you think Florida is some 50 point team without him, you would have a hard time finding anyone in the analytic community who would agree.

 

[KW]

How does the bolded even happen?

Sigh. If he doesn't have to carry the f'n load maybe he won't get f'n hurt.

 

[Gentle Man]

Sigh. If he doesn't have to carry the f'n load maybe he won't get f'n hurt.

He didnt have to carry the load in 2015-16 and he got hurt.

This is an extreme reach at best.

Injuries happen and saying a player will prevent that is not logical.

 

[FrolikFan67]

$7M for Vrbata and McGinn tho

technically 5.833 mil

Vrbata + McGinn + Bjugstad = 9.933 million

 

[ShootIt]

Vegas is #7 on Power Play percentage this year.

Mike Kelly is their PP coach, no?

 

[ShootIt]

Just realized Tom Rowe title is "Special Adviser to GM". What does that mean? Just a fancy title before his contract runs out, or does he have say in moves?

 

[Brokin]

Just realized Tom Rowe title is "Special Adviser to GM". What does that mean? Just a fancy title before his contract runs out, or does he have say in moves?

It means exactly that he is being paid to do nothing. Nice retirement gift from Vinnie.

 

[KW]

He didnt have to carry the load in 2015-16 and he got hurt.

This is an extreme reach at best.

Injuries happen and saying a player will prevent that is not logical.

My logic is no worse than yours. Prove you're right and I'm wrong. Guess what - you can't.

It's called opinions. I have mine, you have yours, that's all there's to it.

Don't like it? Too bad.

 

[Gentle Man]

My logic is no worse than yours. Prove you're right and I'm wrong. Guess what - you can't.

It's called opinions. I have mine, you have yours, that's all there's to it.

Don't like it? Too bad.

You suggested that if a player doesnt have to do the heavy lifting so much, then they wouldnt get hurt.

Every year this has already been proven wrong by literally every injury that happens.

Crosby has been hurt. Malkin. Toews. Doughty. Stamkos. Kucherov.

On and on and on and on and on.

 

[KW]

You suggested that if a player doesnt have to do the heavy lifting so much, then they wouldnt get hurt.

Every year this has already been proven wrong by literally every injury that happens.

Crosby has been hurt. Malkin. Toews. Doughty. Stamkos. Kucherov.

On and on and on and on and on.

What? Your logic is backwards. You're helping make my point. Those players are exactly the ones who do heavy lifting for their teams. If they DIDNT get hurt, you'd have a better point. You'd have a much better example in Barkov this season.

And, of course it's speculation. Yours and mine, both are. So what.

 

[CatscratchFever]

Through 2 periods, 1g 1a for Smith, 1a for Marchessault.

Easily one of the most boneheaded moves this franchise has ever made.

Career high in points for Smith and goal #20

I thought nothing would ever top the Chris Wells trade. They did it.

 

[batting1k]

Just realized Tom Rowe title is "Special Adviser to GM". What does that mean? Just a fancy title before his contract runs out, or does he have say in moves?

Tallon said he'd work to recruit college free agents, etc, but odds are his role is incredibly minimal. I heard earlier this season he had been watching games still, but not sure if that's still the case. He was in Europe a couple months ago when he was in the running for a coaching job for Biel-Bienne of NLA.

 

[jvr32]

So Bruins paid 1st round pick, Team USA WJC prospect Ryan Lindgren (2nd round Boston pick in '16), 3rd liner PP-specialist Spooner (25 points in 39 NHL games this year), 7th round pick and 50% retained Beleskey (will likely be bought out in the summer so buyout money will divide 50-50 between the teams) for over the hill rental Rick Nash who has 0.47 PPG (28 points in 60 games).

Just imagine what kind of haul Marchessault would have snatched as a rental. Probably at least something like 1st + top prospect +++ That's eventually what we lost now for exposing him in the summer and it would have clearly been better to pay another team something like that (1st) to take a cap dump like Bjugstad instead (if it even was needed which is debatable), but of course we also would be higher up in the standings now with Marchessault, so this is only theoretical.

Yes I'm still amazed and sick of the nonsense that spew out from the mouths of the Tallon apologists.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

DT had to give up a 80pts winger in order to lure in McPhee to take another 80pts winger. Totally logical. End of story, Fin.

 

[Gentle Man]

Somebody touched my Sphagetti!