All-Purpose rant about the Expansion Draft, the VGK and Tallon

[batting1k]

You think we would have been a 100 point team again last year with Huberdeau? With Rowe?

You have to be a 100 point team to make the playoffs? Would Gallant have been fired if the team was healthy and playing well?

 

[RainingRats]

Everything changes with Huberdeau in the lineup. Gallant may never been fired. He was fired with a 500 record. Does anyone actually think we wouldn't be a couple more games above 500 at the time of the Carolina game? Who knows how the season plays out. The last 15 games or so the team quit playing for Rowe

 

[batting1k]

Huberdeau is great and probably out most underrated player (either him or Yandle). But I can't see him making that much of an impact!

Sorry, but if he had 50 point season at the very least, that's a lot of goals he's adding/creating. Then you move everyone else in the lineup down and it's a deeper lineup. I'm not guaranteeing we'd be a top 5 team in the league, but odds are we would've been better than what we finished as.

 

[batting1k]

Everything changes with Huberdeau in the lineup. Gallant may never been fired. He was fired with a 500 record. Does anyone actually think we wouldn't be a couple more games above 500 at the time of the Carolina game? Who knows how the season plays out. The last 15 games or so the team quit playing for Rowe

I can't believe some people are arguing that a healthy Huberdeau probably wouldn't change last season. Unreal.

 

[RainingRats]

I can't believe some people are arguing that a healthy Huberdeau probably wouldn't change last season. Unreal.

Completely insane. Especially since those who shall not be named would have in their view.

 

[EnforceTheLaus]

You think we would have been a 100 point team again last year with Huberdeau? With Rowe?

Under Rowe the team had a lower point percentage than under Gallant, even with Rowe having a stronger roster. Prior to the firing if they just held at Gallant’s pace until Hubey returns I think they could’ve snuck in (though I doubt Hubey comes back in January under Gallant).

At the same time Luongo was rushed back (thanks to the expertise of Dr.Cifu) so he would still reaggravate his hip injury. So then we are still stuck with Reimer.... I’m not entirety sold that that team was going to make it either way.

 

[Gentle Man]

You have to be a 100 point team to make the playoffs? Would Gallant have been fired if the team was healthy and playing well?

But thats not the question.

You said he would make a 20 point difference. So we finished with what, 81? So with a full season of Huberdeau, that would be 101.

He would have made a difference if he played the whole year for sure.

But that wouldnt have changed the fact that Ekblad was bad, Matheson was bad, Emers was extra bad, Kindl was extra extra bad, Petro floundered, Yandle was on and off, and Pysyk was your best defender.

 

[Gentle Man]

Under Rowe the team had a lower point percentage than under Gallant, even with Rowe having a stronger roster. Prior to the firing if they just held at Gallant’s pace until Hubey returns I think they could’ve snuck in (though I doubt Hubey comes back in January under Gallant).

At the same time Luongo was rushed back (thanks to the expertise of Dr.Cifu) so he would still reaggravate his hip injury. So then we are still stuck with Reimer.... I’m not entirety sold that that team was going to make it either way.

Let's not forget the Ekblad debacle.

I was legitimately fearful during that game for him. It was embarassing.

 

[I am not exposed]

Sorry, but if he had 50 point season at the very least, that's a lot of goals he's adding/creating. Then you move everyone else in the lineup down and it's a deeper lineup. I'm not guaranteeing we'd be a top 5 team in the league, but odds are we would've been better than what we finished as.

Yes. odds are we would have finished higher. I just don't think it would have been a 20 point difference!

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

If only Smith was on a YO year and NOT a NO year....

 

[EnforceTheLaus]

Let's not forget the Ekblad debacle.

I was legitimately fearful during that game for him. It was embarassing.

Legitimately shocking to me to see that play out. They just committed 49+ million dollars on a franchise D and want to rush him out (against medical recommendation, and common logic) to try to save their buddy’s coaching job. I’m on my phone but I’d line the article penned by one of the team doctors after.

Any self respecting org there would’ve been heads rolling after that. Same with Barkov coming back to re-injur his back, which he thankfully recovered from and didn’t need surgery.

 

[batting1k]

If only Smith was on a YO year and NOT a NO year....

He's a lock for AT LEAST 15+ goals, 40+ points. I don't consider him a yo yo player.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Really? A healthy Huberdeau doesn't add 20 extra standings points? He would've scored at least 15 goals and set up another 30-40 at least. That's a lot of goals which could've helped out in at least a handful of losses. He came into camp in amazing shape.

Again, Joyce wasn't demoted.

You said that last year Joyce had a huge say in player decisions. I am confident he had absolutely no say in any moves this year, so it sounds like a demotion.



Smith and Jam add 4 wins combined if they're here instead of Petrovic, hard to convince me that Huberdeau adds 10. Ask your analytic friends if they think Huberdeau is a 10 win player. The answer will be no. fyi I'm not arguing he wouldn't have made a difference, maybe 3 wins (which is a huge impact) but 85 points still doesn't leave Florida close.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

There's not 1 player in the league that's worth 10 wins. Zero. Even the Oilers wouldn't end up with 20 less points if they played the whole year without Mcjesus.

 

[I am not exposed]

There's not 1 player in the league that's worth 10 wins. Zero. Even the Oilers wouldn't end up with 20 less points if they played the whole year without Mcjesus.

Exactly!

 

[Gentle Man]

There's not 1 player in the league that's worth 10 wins. Zero. Even the Oilers wouldn't end up with 20 less points if they played the whole year without Mcjesus.

Only in the NBA does this exist, where they have less parity that the 50's and 60's when the league had 6 teams.

 

[batting1k]

You said that last year Joyce had a huge say in player decisions. I am confident he had absolutely no say in any moves this year, so it sounds like a demotion.



Smith and Jam add 4 wins combined if they're here instead of Petrovic, hard to convince me that Huberdeau adds 10. Ask your analytic friends if they think Huberdeau is a 10 win player. The answer will be no. fyi I'm not arguing he wouldn't have made a difference, maybe 3 wins (which is a huge impact) but 85 points still doesn't leave Florida close.

Yeah, Joyce did have a big say last year, and in my opinion (not from anything I know, because I really know nothing about what has gone down since the end of last season), he probably didn't have much say on any of the moves from April on, mostly because of Tallon regaining control and doing what he wanted to do.

But, my point is he wasn't demoted. He's still the AGM and I'd be willing to be he's still very much part of the process. I would not say that the AGM title is just a formality.

 

[RainingRats]

Don't think you can calculate Huberdeau's impact solely on what a calculation says he adds. It's more than a player in a vacuum.

It's a healthy Huberdeau which means Gallant stays which means Rowe doesn't become coach, plus we have better forward depth.

If you think Gallant is a great coach and Rowe is a terrible coach then there are quite a few points there to be added to last season's record.

And they quit on Rowe towards the end of the season. Unlikely they quit on Gallant.

 

[batting1k]

You said that last year Joyce had a huge say in player decisions. I am confident he had absolutely no say in any moves this year, so it sounds like a demotion.



Smith and Jam add 4 wins combined if they're here instead of Petrovic, hard to convince me that Huberdeau adds 10. Ask your analytic friends if they think Huberdeau is a 10 win player. The answer will be no. fyi I'm not arguing he wouldn't have made a difference, maybe 3 wins (which is a huge impact) but 85 points still doesn't leave Florida close.

Adding at least 40-50+ more goals to the team last year would've been huge, nevermind the impact adding Huberdeau to the top has on the bottom-9.

We lost 23 one-goal games last season and got shut out 4 times...

 

[batting1k]

Don't think you can calculate Huberdeau's impact solely on what a calculation says he adds. It's more than a player in a vacuum.

It's a healthy Huberdeau which means Gallant stays which means Rowe doesn't become coach, plus we have better forward depth.

If you think Gallant is a great coach and Rowe is a terrible coach then there are quite a few points there to be added to last season's record.

And they quit on Rowe towards the end of the season. Unlikely they quit on Gallant.

But keeping the 2015-16 team together would've added 9 million wins to the 2016-17 team

 

[Brokin]

A supposed yo-yo performer is better than a no-no performer.

Sure he is. A yo-yo goes up and down. Smith goes up and down. What's the difference? I like Smith, only I don't like him at $5M/5 yrs. $4M/4 yrs I can live with. The guy was traded 3 times in 5 yrs because of a reason (inconsistency) and nobody wanted him straight up on a trade w/o at least retaining salary or salary plus an asset. That said, Tallon was the idiot that added March so they could move him to VGK in lieu of doing a deal with salary retention ++.

 

[Gentle Man]

Adding at least 40-50+ more goals to the team last year would've been huge, nevermind the impact adding Huberdeau to the top has on the bottom-9.

We lost 22 one-goal games last season and got shut out 4 times...

No way that adding Huberdeau a full season last year would add 40 to 50 more goals.

you cant plug a player in, add his speculated production, and not expect a drop somewhere. Whether it would have been a drop to Smith, Marchessault, somewhere.

You cant expect to plug him in and just add 40 to 50 more goals. There is no way.

Sports doesnt work like that. Even a broken sport like Basketball. One of the top-end producers will decrease when you add a top end player like Huberdeau.

The benefit will be coming from the bottom, but then their usage would not amount to 40-50 goals.

 

[batting1k]

No way that adding Huberdeau a full season last year would add 40 to 50 more goals.

you cant plug a player in, add his speculated production, and not expect a drop somewhere. Whether it would have been a drop to Smith, Marchessault, somewhere.

You cant expect to plug him in and just add 40 to 50 more goals. There is no way.

But we're willing to accept this magical "X wins of value" stat as fact just because it helps prove a point?

 

[Brokin]

Joyce wasn't demoted.

Not sure what you're trying to say

Well I put it in the same category of saying Joyce was the GM in lieu of Rowe. In name no, but reality yes. To me it was obvious that Rowe got that job because Eric asked Vinnie to install him so he could call the shots thru surrogate Rowe and not take the flak from the fans/talking heads about moving a fellow West Point graduate with no experience to replace Tallon. So in reality Eric has been demoted since he and Tallon do not get along and likely have very little to say to one another. On any other team in the NHL if you are an AGM you are working your ass off for the GM...............not the case in Florida.

 

[Gentle Man]

But we're willing to accept this magical "X wins of value" stat as fact just because it helps prove a point?

You dont have to. It's part of analytics is it not? You dont have to agree with it. But what your doing is your plugging and adding.

At least there is a method to reach that conclusion whether you agree or not, and you dont have to.

I hate to harken back to the NBA yet again, but the best players in history there add 14 wins per season. Michael Jordan, Lebron James, etc. 14. And these guys are in the argument of GOAT.

If your gonna say hockey is different, that's fine and dandy. But again, 20 wins would have made the Panthers over 100 points for the season.

Now, a different perspective. The Panthers were 205 GF and 231 GA last year. If you argue that adding Huberdeau would add 20 and subtract, lets say 15. I'd say thats believable. But even then, that's only a differential of what...9? Even then, that is a HUGE swing. Huge.

Can't just plug and play.


I just looked.

Calculating Point Shares | Hockey-Reference.com

It's derived from win shares in Basketball.

Huberdeau, in 2015-16, had 7.3 point shares, which is 3-4 wins.

If you are talking 20 points? That is WAYNE GRETZKY territory.