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All-purpose goaltending thread II - all Hutch/Pav talk here [Mod warning in OP]

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wpgsilver

wpgsilver

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mcpw said:
I don't know whether it's worth taking a four year long cap hit. I don't know whether it's worth the risk of making Hutchinson starter without a proven backup. I don't think Pavelec is necessarily a bad backup. I'm not sure whether trading him at 50% retained is impossible, either.
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The cap hit is irrelevant because its unlikely we would need it. We're a mid cap team, our real dollars spent matter far more than our cap number. And a buy out saves us real dollars.

And Pavelec is not a good back up.
Last season he was no better than an average AHL call up.
This year aside from a hot start, he's been garbage, save a game or two where he was brilliant.

If we can get rid of Pavelec, we should do so.
 
mcpw

mcpw

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wpgsilver said:
The cap hit is irrelevant because its unlikely we would need it. We're a mid cap team, our real dollars spent matter far more than our cap number. And a buy out saves us real dollars.
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We are now, right. We weren't last season, see here. Are we next season? 17/18? 18/19, when, according to "experts", we should win the cup? A buyout saves 3M in cash, if I'm not mistaken. That's just as much as the 18/19 salary difference between Bogosian and Myers. Meh.

And Pavelec is not a good back up.
Last season he was no better than an average AHL call up.
This year aside from a hot start, he's been garbage, save a game or two where he was brilliant.
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Has he played a backup schedule? Number of starts should have an impact on performance.

If we can get rid of Pavelec, we should do so.
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Always depends on the conditions.
 
wpgsilver

wpgsilver

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Jun 14, 2011
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mcpw said:
We are now, right. We weren't last season, see here. Are we next season? 17/18? 18/19, when, according to "experts", we should win the cup? A buyout saves 3M in cash, if I'm not mistaken. That's just as much as the 18/19 salary difference between Bogosian and Myers. Meh.



Has he played a backup schedule? Number of starts should have an impact on performance.



Always depends on the conditions.
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3 million in savings is nothing I'd meh at. Not only does it save us money, it rids of us a known commodity- a bad goalie.

You might have confidence that with fewer starts he'll be better. I don't. He's had fewer starts this year and he's back sub .910. In fact as Hutch improved Pavs got worse. I have no reason to think that Pavs won't be worse playing infrequently.

What conditions could make it worthwhile to keep him?

He is a below average goalie who is being paid far more than he's worth. If you buy him out, and replace him with an average nhl back up not only do you improve your goaltending you still save money.

If I was a MOD I would have copied the last ten posts to a new thread by now...
 

Derfel*

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New thread time? Please make the first post generally positive and forward thinking?
 

knorthern knight

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Mar 18, 2011
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mcpw said:
I still don't get it. How is buying him out a good idea? Four years cap hit, and who are our goalies next season?
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One item is that a buyout of a 26-yearold-or-older player means paying 2/3rds of his remaining contract. And that amount is spread out over twice the remaining duration. So instead of $3.9 million caphit X 2 seasons, we'd have $1.3 million caphit X 4 seasons. The actual salary due is similarly reduced and spread out.

mcpw said:
Hutchinson/Hellebuyck with a grand total of less than 60 NHL games?
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I know that they haven't proven they're competent starters yet. However, unlike Pavelec, they haven't proven that they're NOT competent starters yet. See http://jets.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8471715&view=stats "Career Regular Season Statistics ". In addition to SV%, I'm also including the difference of (Games_won - Games_lost)
  • 2007-2008 .905 0
  • 2008-2009 .880 -4
  • 2009-2010 .906 -4
  • 2010-2011 .914 -2
  • 2011-2012 .906 +1
  • 2012-2013 .905 +1
  • 2013-2014 .901 -4
  • 2014-2015 (so far) .909 0
I.e. in his 7 seasons, going on 8, his win total has never exceeded his loss total by more than 1. Let's look at the wins minus losses count for the team in the last playoff wild card slots in the Jets 2.0 era.

  • 2011-2012
    • East Ottawa 41W 31L +10
    • West Los Angeles 40 W 27L +13
  • 2012-2013 (adjusted 48 games ==> 82 games)
    • East Islanders 24W 17L +7 ==> +12
    • West Minnesota 26W 19L +7 ==> +12
  • 2013-2014
    • East Detroit 39W 28L +11
    • West Dallas 40W 31L +9
Quick-n-dirty rule of thumb... a team's W total needs to exceed their L total by 12 to comfortably get into the playoffs. Dallas got in on a fluke last season when Phoenix's Shane Doan came down with Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. Phoenix had looked like a lock for a playoff spot, but they totally collapse after Doan's ilness, missing the playoffs by 2 points.

Anyhow, Pavelec has never had better than a +1 year. That is simply not good enough. Pavelec is zero (W - L) this year. Hutchinson is +12 so far this year, which is why we're in the 2nd wild card slot right now.
 
mcpw

mcpw

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Jan 13, 2015
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Actually, cap hits are 1.15-0.65-1.50-1.50. (see e. g. war-on-ice)

I'm not arguing that Pavelec is a good starter. He isn't. I know that Hutchinson is the reason we're in the wild card slot.

Hutchinson's +12 pro-rated to 82 games makes +29. That's 111 points, plus OTL points. Number of starts and timing is important. Can Pavelec be a + goalie as a backup?
 
wpgsilver

wpgsilver

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mcpw said:
Actually, cap hits are 1.15-0.65-1.50-1.50. (see e. g. war-on-ice)

I'm not arguing that Pavelec is a good starter. He isn't. I know that Hutchinson is the reason we're in the wild card slot.

Hutchinson's +12 pro-rated to 82 games makes +29. That's 111 points, plus OTL points. Number of starts and timing is important. Can Pavelec be a + goalie as a backup?
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Maybe, but there's no reason to think so.
 
Mud Turtle

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Jul 26, 2013
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mcpw said:
Actually, cap hits are 1.15-0.65-1.50-1.50. (see e. g. war-on-ice)

I'm not arguing that Pavelec is a good starter. He isn't. I know that Hutchinson is the reason we're in the wild card slot.

Hutchinson's +12 pro-rated to 82 games makes +29. That's 111 points, plus OTL points. Number of starts and timing is important. Can Pavelec be a + goalie as a backup?
Click to expand...



Why would you think that? His numbers have been worse than the backups numbers in pretty much every season he's been here.
 
mcpw

mcpw

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Jan 13, 2015
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2,072
Mud Turtle said:
[/B]

Why would you think that? His numbers have been worse than the backups numbers in pretty much every season he's been here.
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Look at the sentence before the one you bolded..... Hutchinson wouldn't have won us the Presidents had he always started.
 
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