All-purpose goaltending thread II - all Hutch/Pav talk here [Mod warning in OP]

[Hank Chinaski]

Warning: If you can't discuss the topic without taunting or taking shots at other posters, you will be infracted and/or removed from the conversation at the moderator's discretion. Critique posts, not the posters themselves. If you're thinking about trolling, please don't do that either.

TALE OF THE TAPE

In the silver trunks:

ONDREJ PAVELEC
Career GP: 319
2014-15 Season Save %: 0.911
Career Save %: 0.906
Last bout: 4 GA, 0.862 vs. PIT
Stance: Orthodox
Reach:-ing for pucks while sprawling on the ice


In the blue trunks:

MICHAEL HUTCHINSON
Career GP: 26
2014-15 Season Save %: 0.927
Career Save %: 0.929
Last bout: 5 GA, 0.844 vs. DAL
Stance: Southpaw
Reach: Yeah, he was a reach if you drafted him in your hockey pool, could've just scooped him on the waiver wire!

Click to read more...

 

[veganhunter]

Hutch was not good last night. Obviously he is going to have more than a couple more stinkers to finish out the season (he was never going to maintain his current numbers that would be insane to think he would). We better hope he can maintain a level of play relatively close to what he has to this point though because we know 2 things: 1. Pavelec is not the answer he has been awful basically since junior and if we have to rely on him to get us in the playoffs we will be picking just outside the top 10 in the draft again 2. This is a good team but not a strong enough one to get into the playoffs without good goaltending

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Hutch was not good last night. Obviously he is going to have more than a couple more stinkers to finish out the season (he was never going to maintain his current numbers that would be insane to think he would). We better hope he can maintain a level of play relatively close to what he has to this point though because we know 2 things: 1. Pavelec is not the answer he has been awful basically since junior and if we have to rely on him to get us in the playoffs we will be picking just outside the top 10 in the draft again 2. This is a good team but not a strong enough one to get into the playoffs without good goaltending

Agree on all counts.

What gives me some confidence with Hutchinson is that his even strength save percentage is still very strong:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&pos=goalies&minutes=500&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=SvPct&sortdir=DESC

He got lit up by the Flyers and Stars PP, but 4v5 save percentages tend to be more unstable than even strength. Gives some context to his recent regression.

 

[CaptainChef]

So many great posts in support of continuing the rotation again. Can't seem to remember my Pavs formula, however .... hmm how does it go anyways.

Oh yes, here it is. You take Pavs best game in the last two years (ie Dallas), compare it to a below average game for Clutch, and presto ... Pavs comes out ahead. therefore is a good bet to play him half the games from here on in.

 

[veganhunter]

Agree on all counts.

What gives me some confidence with Hutchinson is that his even strength save percentage is still very strong:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&pos=goalies&minutes=500&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=SvPct&sortdir=DESC

He got lit up by the Flyers and Stars PP, but 4v5 save percentages tend to be more unstable than even strength. Gives some context to his recent regression.

That was something I had thought about but hadn't looked up (I missed the Flyers game). That's good though, certainly relieves some of my angst about a possible collapse. Even so I'm counting on Hutch regressing some from here on out, his numbers are simply ridiculous so it kind of goes without saying. As long as he stay at or even slightly above league average the rest of the way we are way better off than we have been the last 3 years with Pav, so the bar really isn't set too high (more like really low).

 

[Aavco Cup]

The whole team has been lit up by other teams PP since the break. 7 for 13. Our PK is 46% in those three losses.

 

[pucka lucka]

The whole team has been lit up by other teams PP since the break. 7 for 13. Our PK is 46% in those three losses.

Getting lit up and half of those shouldn't have been penalties.

 

[White Out 403*]

one thing that concerns me with the framing of the pavs vs hutch debate is that we know for near certain based on an enormous sample size pavs isnt the answer. when hutch has a stretch of poor starts it doesnt magically make pavs better, as we can plainly see.

i will say that if hutch keeps playing as he has since the ASG we are def not making the playoffs.

 

[Gm0ney]

Ever since the torch has been subtly given to Hutch as the #1 he hasn't looked good.

When do you peg that torch hand-off? All-Star break?

I think Pavelec and Hutchinson split pretty evenly starting in mid-November and by mid-December Hutch was given the subtle push. Since mid-December, Hutch has gone 8-4-0, .921 SV%. He was 6-2-2 with a .934 SV% before that.

I'd probably categorize 8-4-0 and .921 as looking good.

It's not too surprising Hutch hasn't maintained the .934 from his first 10 starts.

BTW: over that same stretch since mid-December, Pavelec is 3-3-2 with a .905 SV%.

 

[pucka lucka]

When do you peg that torch hand-off? All-Star break?

I think Pavelec and Hutchinson split pretty evenly starting in mid-November and by mid-December Hutch was given the subtle push. Since mid-December, Hutch has gone 8-4-0, .921 SV%. He was 6-2-2 with a .934 SV% before that.

I'd probably categorize 8-4-0 and .921 as looking good.

It's not too surprising Hutch hasn't maintained the .934 from his first 10 starts.

BTW: over that same stretch since mid-December, Pavelec is 3-3-2 with a .905 SV%.

But that Dallas game, we keep hearing about. It was so great it erased 3.5 years of league worst play.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

But that Dallas game, we keep hearing about. It was so great it erased 3.5 years of league worst play.

Oh, for sure it did!

This isn't really pointed at you - just using your post as a jumping off point since it discusses his past performance:

Every NHL goalie, even Pavelec, are very good goalies - they have to be to have gotten to this level. As garret (or truck?) has pointed out - there will be stretches of good play, average play, and poor play, and the difference is very small between goalies at this level. Pavelec has stolen games in the past, and he will again.

That said, it's the number of poor showings he turns in vs. the number of good or great showings that ends up being his downfall. The bell-curve for his poor/average/good performances is weighted in the wrong direction, sadly. I really wish it were different - I WANT him to do well, as it would mean the Jets would do well when he's backstopping him.

Alas, I just don't have the confidence that he'll improve. I'd be happy if he ends up where he is on the SV% side - league average'ish is better than what's he's turned in for the last 2 years.

 

[pucka lucka]

Oh, for sure it did!

This isn't really pointed at you - just using your post as a jumping off point:

Every NHL goalie, even Pavelec, are very good goalies - they have to be to have gotten to this level. As garret (or truck?) has pointed out - there will be stretches of good play, average play, and poor play, and the difference is very small between goalies at this level. Pavelec has stolen games in the past, and he will again.

That said, it's the number of poor showings he turns in vs. the number of good or great showings that ends up being his downfall. The bell-curve for his poor/average/good performances is weighted in the wrong direction, sadly. I really wish it were different - I WANT him to do well, as it would mean the Jets would do well when he's backstopping him.

Alas, I just don't have the confidence that he'll improve. I'd be happy if he ends up where he is on the SV% side - league average'ish is better than what's he's turned in for the last 2 years.

His complete lack of hockey sense has always driven me crazy. I noticed it right away when they arrived.

 

[Jets4Life]

"For someone who loves to tell people to check their facts you sure are wrong.
Pavs was the only Jet that showed up in the last Jets game against them and stole two points.
I guess Pav haters have blocked that from their memory."

If you bothered to check out the conversation, the forum member was going on about how Pavelec has had the Stars number, and should have started. I pointed out the previous game Pavelec played the Stars, he got lit up, and was pulled. I guess Pav defenders have blocked that form their memory.

How does playing one game well against a divisional opponent suggest a goalie has their number?

 

[Derfel*]

How does playing one game well against a divisional opponent suggest a goalie has their number?

Many gave the same reason why Hutchinson should start against Chicago. Pavelec put up the "performance of the season" against Dallas, and it was "his turn" in the rotation - was not the right decision to play Hutchinson instead, unless Pavelec was hurt.

Pavelec had an incredible night on the 15th; he was the reason that we got two points, is the reason that we didn't get embarrassed. That was clearly just a special effort by a gifted man. Why not reward him for it?

 

[fmrdh]

Who gets the start on Friday against Chicago?

Hutch is 3-0 vs CHI this season and has looked real good in those games.

 

[Derfel*]

Who gets the start on Friday against Chicago?

Hutch is 3-0 vs CHI this season and has looked real good in those games.

Hutchinson, no question. Should go Pavelec, Hutchinson, Hutchinson, Pavelec for the next 4.

 

[KingBogo]

Hutchinson, no question. Should go Pavelec, Hutchinson, Hutchinson, Pavelec for the next 4.

I don't know if it is in our best interests to map out games other then splitting B2B. Time for a goalie to step and start carrying the load and the most likely candidate is Hutch. But neither goalie has been very strong since the all star break.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Pavelec for the next 4.

Why? Pavelec suddenly get 4 in a row. Makes sense to me

 

[Jets4Life]

Many gave the same reason why Hutchinson should start against Chicago. Pavelec put up the "performance of the season" against Dallas, and it was "his turn" in the rotation - was not the right decision to play Hutchinson instead, unless Pavelec was hurt.

Pavelec had an incredible night on the 15th; he was the reason that we got two points, is the reason that we didn't get embarrassed. That was clearly just a special effort by a gifted man. Why not reward him for it?

Once again, having a great game against Dallas the only time he has started in net against the Stars does not mean he "has their number." It's one game, for goodness sakes.

"Special effort by a gifted man???"

Oh please. I suppose that "one special effort" makes up for the 2 months of mediocre games that Pavelec has cost us points by blowing 3rd period leads on numerous occasions.

Pavelec will never be a great, or even average goalie in the NHL. He is mediocre, even when you compare his numbers to backups.

 

[Ducky10]

Many gave the same reason why Hutchinson should start against Chicago. Pavelec put up the "performance of the season" against Dallas, and it was "his turn" in the rotation - was not the right decision to play Hutchinson instead, unless Pavelec was hurt.

Pavelec had an incredible night on the 15th; he was the reason that we got two points, is the reason that we didn't get embarrassed. That was clearly just a special effort by a gifted man. Why not reward him for it?

I thought Hutch started against Chicago because he gave us the best chance to win, same as last night. Not always going to work out but it does more often than not so far, we need more, more oftens right now.

 

[Ducky10]

Once again, having a great game against Dallas the only time he has started in net against the Stars does not mean he "has their number." It's one game, for goodness sakes.

"Special effort by a gifted man???"

Oh please. I suppose that "one special effort" makes up for the 2 months of mediocre games that Pavelec has cost us points by blowing 3rd period leads on numerous occasions.

Pavelec will never be a great, or even average goalie in the NHL. He is mediocre, even when you compare his numbers to backups.

Those were Maurice's words, don't shoot the messenger (me).

 

[Jets4Life]

Why? Pavelec suddenly get 4 in a row. Makes sense to me

Makes sense to me as well.

Pavelec has not had nearly enough time to prove himself. 6 years is simply not enough. Let's sign him to a DiPietro-like extension, and give him until 2025 to see if he can guide us to the playoffs.

 

[Jets4Life]

Those were Maurice's words, don't shoot the messenger (me).

I was actually referring to a different forum member. Either way, I'm sure Maurice walks on eggshells when stating anything about Pavelec to the media. Pavs has such a fragile ego that if Maurice would be too critical of him, it might destroy him emotionally.

 

[Gnova]

"For someone who loves to tell people to check their facts you sure are wrong.
Pavs was the only Jet that showed up in the last Jets game against them and stole two points.
I guess Pav haters have blocked that from their memory."

If you bothered to check out the conversation, the forum member was going on about how Pavelec has had the Stars number, and should have started. I pointed out the previous game Pavelec played the Stars, he got lit up, and was pulled. I guess Pav defenders have blocked that form their memory.

How does playing one game well against a divisional opponent suggest a goalie has their number?

I didn't have to read a thread history to see you state that his last game against the Stars had been bad when it hadn't.

I don't think playing one game against a team and completely frustrating them is cause to put the goalie in net forever against that team but I do think putting him in the next time they play the team is a good idea.

 

[Gnova]

I was actually referring to a different forum member. Either way, I'm sure Maurice walks on eggshells when stating anything about Pavelec to the media. Pavs has such a fragile ego that if Maurice would be too critical of him, it might destroy him emotionally.

What makes you think that?
Have you seen him crying in his car on the way from the rink.
There is absolutely nothing to back up the ego statement.