All-Purpose Attendance Thread - Part II

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

@Gesus,

He has promised to spend again, but it’s not going to happen if we have 16,000 showing up for games.

You are more than welcome to buy in to his promises if you believe him. I'm sorry, but I don't, at all.

Don't worry though, I live in the Yukon, and I've been informed I'm irrelevant regardless

 

[GCK]

You are more than welcome to buy in to his promises if you believe him. I'm sorry, but I don't, at all.

Don't worry though, I live in the Yukon, and I've been informed I'm irrelevant regardless

I believe he will spend what revenues support, I think only a fool would believe he will go into his own pocket.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

He’s not losing money. He can continue on at the floor or a little below and still not lose money for at least 5 more years.

Can they really circumvent the cap like this every year though? It takes some serious work from the GM and at some point they might be forced to go as high as the cap floor in real salary

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I believe he will spend what revenues support, I think only a fool would believe he will go into his own pocket.

That's a reasonable way to operate (with a caveat that more year to year flexibility is needed for a pro sports team), but that wasn't the promise in the announcement, so you're saying the promise was conditional? Shouldn't he have made that known at the time? I can see why he wouldn't since it would come off as too much of a threat, thus mirroring his previous behavior, but it should be made known. He knew very well where fans were at by that point and that he wasn't buying them back with more promises they felt he didnt honor previously.

I don't buy it from him even if the revenues were there, but as I said, that's just me and everyone is welcome to draw their own conclusions.

 

[Dingle]

If it is so bad Melnyk can put the team up for sale. Until he cannot find any buyers to take the team, I will not feel sorry for him.

he does want out. He is betting on "betting". The assumption is "in Arena Gambling". Some have it pegged at a substantial dollar bump in team values almost instantly. He is waiting.

what he never anticipated is this free-fall. 11 600 or so average attendance.. Now he is in a bind...

 

[Dingle]

Guys..the world got turned on its ears a year plus ago..when the US congress legalized sports gambling, it changed the picture. The jump in revenue and team values is (or may) be substantial.
But that is relative..EM was operating on the premise of losses in the 10 million a year..based on 16-17000 fans. Gambling comes in, he makes his money back..the team increases in value and all is well.

This changes everything...he is down to 11 600..and will add a solid 10 million to his losses.

The picture from this day forward is going to look awfully murky. The Sens world changed so dramatically from early 2017 to now..It is incredible

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

he does want out. He is betting on "betting". The assumption is "in Arena Gambling". Some have it pegged at a substantial dollar bump in team values almost instantly. He is waiting.

what he never anticipated is this free-fall. 11 600 or so average attendance.. Now he is in a bind...

I think he saw this coming and that's why they planned on it and had Dorion spend his summer getting real payroll down around 50 mil. That was calculated organizational decision making based on their own projections for this year having very poor revenue imo.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

If it is so bad Melnyk can put the team up for sale. Until he cannot find any buyers to take the team, I will not feel sorry for him.

Didn’t revenue go up last year?

 

[Micklebot]

I agree but in business, every sale is only worth the price that the buyer is willing to pay. If a prospective buyer deems there is too much risk to lose money in the first few seasons after purchasing, then you know their offer is going to be low. I highly doubt any buyer will pay what Melnyk is asking unless attendance numbers return to what they were between the two lock-outs.

Attendance will certainly impact any sale price, i just think it's impact is being overstated. Operating income for the team will likely not be much different from prior years with the cuts to salary and revenue sharing.

 

[JD1]

Mac was a huge part of the run, so losing him was a downgrade on the success they had. Beyond their run, they were a bubble team. Karlsson came back but was so obviously coming back too soon and really struggled. Methot was their 2nd best dman by a large margin. They effectively rolled out the team with Ceci and Phaneuf as their best D, which is obviously an issue.

I don't think he owes the fans anything, but he chose to make statements about spending that never came to fruition, so in that sense, he should be held to it.

You can call it hatred spewing all you want, but thats not really reality. They talked up spending when the time was right many times and I guess the time was just never right. The way I see it, that roster ended up exactly as so many predicted and they were just the ones that didnt see it coming.

That roster...get off your soap box....ive learned from reading HF Sens that our 2017 ECF run was a mirage built in part on unsustainable goaltending and a red sea parting of the opposition that led to a near uncontested path it was so easy

This is the problem with narratives...they spin and spin.... hey you know, maybe the Gm and owner knew the team was a joke in 2017 so they never spent

The story back then was about the team being crappy. About the team being lucky. About Methot being the best player chosen in the expansion draft

Now your complaint is that he never spent when the time was right? That the old core was a contender surrounded by the right talent?

There must be a complaint wheel....spin it and see what story to push today kind of thing

 

[JD1]

You are more than welcome to buy in to his promises if you believe him. I'm sorry, but I don't, at all.

Don't worry though, I live in the Yukon, and I've been informed I'm irrelevant regardless

If the Yukon shot is at me....that's more spin...you said "who cares" that Duchene spent 118 games in a Sens uni...i told you that i care because i got to see him play live a lot

If someone else told you that you were irrelevant that should not be tolerated here

If you are referencing our discussion the other day....i did not use the word irrelevant..... your making shit up....again

 

[Spartachat]

he does want out. He is betting on "betting". The assumption is "in Arena Gambling". Some have it pegged at a substantial dollar bump in team values almost instantly. He is waiting.

what he never anticipated is this free-fall. 11 600 or so average attendance.. Now he is in a bind...

I don't think it will make a big difference in Canada. You can already bet on hockey games. I do it once and awile on Mise-O-jeu in Quebec.

 

[Larionov]

This notion that somehow gambling will be a revenue jackpot for the NHL seems like a lot of wishful thinking. All evidence points to millennials and Gen Z being far less interested in gambling than their parents are/were. Just ask casino operators and government run lottery corporations, all of whom are experiencing revenue declines in recent years. As pointed out above, anyone who wants to gamble on sports has plenty of avenues already to do so - all they have to do is grab their phone. The NHL, like other pro sports, is going to have to look to maximize streaming and merchandise revenue - an already maxed out and shrinking gaming sector isn't going to be their salvation.

 

[Silencio]

This notion that somehow gambling will be a revenue jackpot for the NHL seems like a lot of wishful thinking. All evidence points to millennials and Gen Z being far less interested in gambling than their parents are/were. Just ask casino operators and government run lottery corporations, all of whom are experiencing revenue declines in recent years. As pointed out above, anyone who wants to gamble on sports has plenty of avenues already to do so - all they have to do is grab their phone. The NHL, like other pro sports, is going to have to look to maximize streaming and merchandise revenue - an already maxed out and shrinking gaming sector isn't going to be their salvation.

Oh millennials and Gen Z are gambling plenty...they just prefer gaming crates/lootboxes to slot machines.

 

[Dingle]

This notion that somehow gambling will be a revenue jackpot for the NHL seems like a lot of wishful thinking. All evidence points to millennials and Gen Z being far less interested in gambling than their parents are/were. Just ask casino operators and government run lottery corporations, all of whom are experiencing revenue declines in recent years. As pointed out above, anyone who wants to gamble on sports has plenty of avenues already to do so - all they have to do is grab their phone. The NHL, like other pro sports, is going to have to look to maximize streaming and merchandise revenue - an already maxed out and shrinking gaming sector isn't going to be their salvation.

I cannot begin to give you a proper analysis. I can only go by what I see and hear. In the USA, it is being taken very seriously. The Washington Capitals (same owner as the Wizards in the NBA) has implemented it in his arena... He was on ESPN's outside the lines and talking about it a few weeks ago. Again from the buzz, it seems like a big deal...Even Erik Maccramela on TSN 1200 has brought it up enough times.

So, if significant, then it can transform sports teams !!!! I don't know..But, I can see EM, being awfully interested. Remember, he fought hard to get the rights to an Ottawa Casino.. It is a world he has a better feel for.

 

[Dingle]

I don't think it will make a big difference in Canada. You can already bet on hockey games. I do it once and awile on Mise-O-jeu in Quebec.

probably...but if it mushrooms in the US and there is any kind of sharing. It could still sweeten the pots of Canadian teams...Maybe, EM is banking on that way harder than we think.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

probably...but if it mushrooms in the US and there is any kind of sharing. It could still sweeten the pots of Canadian teams...Maybe, EM is banking on that way harder than we think.

So you're saying he may be putting all his eggs in a basket over which he has no control? Hm. Soccer team, casino, Lebreton... killer track record. Surely you can understand why nobody would have any faith in this panning out?

 

[Dingle]

So you're saying he may be putting all his eggs in a basket over which he has no control? Hm. Soccer team, casino, Lebreton... killer track record. Surely you can understand why nobody would have any faith in this panning out?

this is not about my faith in him...this is me, hypothesizing about his future. He is 165 million and counting in debt. This year could add 20 million to that debt (when you are down to 11600 fans, you will loose some serious cash). I believe that he thinks that this "in arena gambling", and that the expanded role of sports teams in gambling could catapult his team financially. Now get the government to build him a downtown arena and either he hangs around and reaps the year to year financial benefit, or he sells high,,,and I mean billion dollar high.

If he tries and sells now..it will be at the teams lowest value. ~ 200 million in debt...11600 fans, ~ 20 million a year in losses...

It makes way more sense to hang around a while. If in a year or two or three it turns up.. he is laughing...if not, then he adds 60 million to his losses and walks out..remember, he gambles a million dollars a year at casinos..people like him have no problem gambling 60 million.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

It makes way more sense to hang around a while. If in a year or two or three it turns up.. he is laughing...if not, then he adds 60 million to his losses and walks out..remember, he gambles a million dollars a year at casinos..people like him have no problem gambling 60 million.

With comments like this, it's pretty clear you're not well-versed on the issue. His liquidity has been at issue for years now. It's far more likely than not that he does have a problem gambling $60 million. I don't think it makes sense to keep engaging on this issue with you, so I'll step away from the conversation.

 

[Spartachat]

@Gesus,

He has promised to spend again, but it’s not going to happen if we have 16,000 showing up for games.

Now that Arizona has a competitive team their attendance is up. There is a correlation between on-ice product and attendance. He can cut costs as much as he likes, but he will just have to live with the low attendance. Whenever that TSN contract is up for renewal, I am pretty sure it will be lower as well.

 

[BatherSeason]

Now that Arizona has a competitive team their attendance is up. There is a correlation between on-ice product and attendance. He can cut costs as much as he likes, but he will just have to live with the low attendance. Whenever that TSN contract is up for renewal, I am pretty sure it will be lower as well.

**IF/WHEN the team starts winning, and Melnyk keeps his mouth shut, people will come back. Until then 11000 is gonna be the norm. Yes, the product is better right now, but proving the doubters wrong is gonna take a lot more than just a slight on ice improvement.

However, I believe the odds of Melnyk keeping quiet, especially with the multiple lawsuits against him, is very low.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

That roster...get off your soap box....ive learned from reading HF Sens that our 2017 ECF run was a mirage built in part on unsustainable goaltending and a red sea parting of the opposition that led to a near uncontested path it was so easy

This is the problem with narratives...they spin and spin.... hey you know, maybe the Gm and owner knew the team was a joke in 2017 so they never spent

The story back then was about the team being crappy. About the team being lucky. About Methot being the best player chosen in the expansion draft

Now your complaint is that he never spent when the time was right? That the old core was a contender surrounded by the right talent?

There must be a complaint wheel....spin it and see what story to push today kind of thing

How many times have we been over this? I have many opinions about it all, but sometimes things get get taken out of context and I can't always lay out entire arguments in every post as the discussion moves along based on what the other poster is taking issue with. I think you know pretty well where I stand even if the discussion gets taken away or I'm responding in haste on a phone while busy. I also don't care much to lay them all out anymore, its over and you, I and others are fairly entrenched in our postitions. I know your version of the events well and you're entitled to your opinions, but you don't seem to think there's any valid way to interpret what happened, the why, etc. other than your own version. I'm trying to be positive about the rebuild, but that doesn't change why and how I think we got here.

If the Yukon shot is at me....that's more spin...you said "who cares" that Duchene spent 118 games in a Sens uni...i told you that i care because i got to see him play live a lot

If someone else told you that you were irrelevant that should not be tolerated here

If you are referencing our discussion the other day....i did not use the word irrelevant..... your making **** up....again

I assumed you were joking. I probably should have left it alone, but I thought it was a bit of silly comment and referenced it sarcastically because of what else was said on the thread.

Duchene was obviously a treat to watch in Ottawa for fans, but the black cloud of ufa status and the team being so bad made it something I didn't personally pull enjoyment from. That's more of a personal thing and what we watch hockey for imo than an in person/on tv difference. I have been to Ottawa and many other NHL cities for games, so I appreciate the experience is different. Duchene playing 118 games for the Senators while they tank did nothing for me, but I didn't mean to cast your opinion on that as irrelevant.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I live about as far as you Gesus, and Duchene was an absolute treat to watch in my opinion. It’s not like we’re talking about Scott Gomez here. Duchene, in his short time here, was one of the very best players to ever wear the jersey in my opinion.

I wanted him signed over Stone and EK, as I think he would have been a solid complimentary core player under the leadership of BT and Chabot. His play style would fit perfect with this team.

Ah well, country boy playing in country town, and the weather is pretty sweet to boot!

 

[Dingle]

I live about as far as you Gesus, and Duchene was an absolute treat to watch in my opinion. It’s not like we’re talking about Scott Gomez here. Duchene, in his short time here, was one of the very best players to ever wear the jersey in my opinion.

I wanted him signed over Stone and EK, as I think he would have been a solid complimentary core player under the leadership of BT and Chabot. His play style would fit perfect with this team.

Ah well, country boy playing in country town, and the weather is pretty sweet to boot!

I cannot remember exactly when, but about a month ago, on TSN1200 pre-game show. Chris Stevenson brought up the subject of Duschene. I am paraphrasing .."Senators management did not feel that Duschene was a good enough 200 foot player..he was not 100% reliable in his own end" It is why they did not sign him. They felt top line money for a guy who they feared was unreliable in his own end (against other teams top line, grant you) was not justified.

Was this management providing an excuse...or was it real?

I do not trust management, or ownership...but on this issue...they may have been right.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I cannot remember exactly when, but about a month ago, on TSN1200 pre-game show. Chris Stevenson brought up the subject of Duschene. I am paraphrasing .."Senators management did not feel that Duschene was a good enough 200 foot player..he was not 100% reliable in his own end" It is why they did not sign him. They felt top line money for a guy who they feared was unreliable in his own end (against other teams top line, grant you) was not justified.

Was this management providing an excuse...or was it real?

I do not trust management, or ownership...but on this issue...they may have been right.

Didnt they extend him a contract offer?