All-Purpose Attendance Thread - Part II

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

You know he increased payroll for 2017-18 right. How did the roster get downgraded other than losing Methot and the 45 games he played since leaving Ottawa.
I want to reiterate that payroll increased even though his org was a national laughing stock that we didn’t sell out in the conference finals.

A negligible amount compared to the previous year and a some of it was Mac on LTIR. They lost Methot, Macarthur and basically EK due to surgery recovery. They replaced none of them with anything remotely capable and instead their big move was to upgrade the 1C spot instead. Lack of funds or bad management? Or both?

 

[GCK]

A negligible amount compared to the previous year and a some of it was Mac on LTIR. They lost Methot, Macarthur and basically EK due to surgery recovery. They replaced none of them with anything remotely capable and instead their big move was to upgrade the 1C spot instead. Lack of funds or bad management? Or both?

MacArthur was out for all of the 2015-16 and 2016-17 season and came back to play in the playoff games. So not having him for 2017-18 was not downgrading it was the same. Karlsson missed something like 5 games to start the season and 11 overall in 2017-18, why would he need replacing. Methot was lost in expansion but the payroll still went up about 3-4 million.

In the season we made the conference finals we had avg attendance of 16,744 followed by 15,829. We didn’t sellout playoff games. Melnyk didn’t lambaste the fan base until December 2017 so tell me why you feel you are owed more investment by the owner when fans were not willing to invest in a team making a run.

You can spew your hatred and blame but it just doesn’t align with the facts.

 

[Dingle]

MacArthur was out for all of the 2015-16 and 2016-17 season and came back to play in the playoff games. So not having him for 2017-18 was not downgrading it was the same. Karlsson missed something like 5 games to start the season and 11 overall in 2017-18, why would he need replacing. Methot was lost in expansion but the payroll still went up about 3-4 million.

In the season we made the conference finals we had avg attendance of 16,744 followed by 15,829. We didn’t sellout playoff games. Melnyk didn’t lambaste the fan base until December 2017 so tell me why you feel you are owed more investment by the owner when fans were not willing to invest in a team making a run.

You can spew your hatred and blame but it just doesn’t align with the facts.

GCK..I kinda see the issue the same as you. Melnyk has been unfairly vilified for cutting cost when revenue was declining for nearly a decade. When I read posts, I see some patterns..Those that defend the club, those that condemn it. I am both. You come off as defender..good..at least a proper counterpoint, without undue emotion.

Is the issue as simple as; the team slipped, and fans rushed out way quicker than they should have?
or is the issue, the fans held fast, saw a team in decline and then bailed?

Anger in this market, predates the last 2 years..go back and examine from 2009/2010 and move outwards.

I believe it's both. The fans bailed a tad too early and he did a poor job of maintaining this teams competitive nature (1997 to 2008). Which has now left both sides angry at each other.

I hope the rebuild works..that is about as close to couple's therapy as we will get.

 

[GCK]

GCK..I kinda see the issue the same as you. Melnyk has been unfairly vilified for cutting cost when revenue was declining for nearly a decade. When I read posts, I see some patterns..Those that defend the club, those that condemn it. I am both. You come off as defender..good..at least a proper counterpoint, without undue emotion.

Is the issue as simple as; the team slipped, and fans rushed out way quicker than they should have?
or is the issue, the fans held fast, saw a team in decline and then bailed?

Anger in this market, predates the last 2 years..go back and examine from 2009/2010 and move outwards.

I believe it's both. The fans bailed a tad too early and he did a poor job of maintaining this teams competitive nature (1997 to 2008). Which has now left both sides angry at each other.

I hope the rebuild works..that is about as close to couple's therapy as we will get.

I by no means am a defender of Melnyk. I used to give him some benefit of doubt as he saved the club but the Parliament Hill outburst was a breaking point. While what he said may of had some merit, it was inappropriate in tone, timing and delivery. Melnyk needs to go.

onto the other issue. There are a million theories regarding attendance decking prior to Melnykout.
Phoenix, atmosphere, parking, location, performance, hot water, etc... I really believe we needed a reboot. When the team kept reaching to get into the playoffs the team grew stale. The last bit of excitement was EK as a new player. Watching a team grow from the basement to the top through homegrown players is really what this city loves. Remember Redden, Alfie, Hossa, Havlat, etc..., that was the apex of this city’s passion for the Sens. I feel it coming again and I hope EM doesn’t ruin it.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

MacArthur was out for all of the 2015-16 and 2016-17 season and came back to play in the playoff games. So not having him for 2017-18 was not downgrading it was the same. Karlsson missed something like 5 games to start the season and 11 overall in 2017-18, why would he need replacing. Methot was lost in expansion but the payroll still went up about 3-4 million.

In the season we made the conference finals we had avg attendance of 16,744 followed by 15,829. We didn’t sellout playoff games. Melnyk didn’t lambaste the fan base until December 2017 so tell me why you feel you are owed more investment by the owner when fans were not willing to invest in a team making a run.

You can spew your hatred and blame but it just doesn’t align with the facts.

Mac was a huge part of the run, so losing him was a downgrade on the success they had. Beyond their run, they were a bubble team. Karlsson came back but was so obviously coming back too soon and really struggled. Methot was their 2nd best dman by a large margin. They effectively rolled out the team with Ceci and Phaneuf as their best D, which is obviously an issue.

I don't think he owes the fans anything, but he chose to make statements about spending that never came to fruition, so in that sense, he should be held to it.

You can call it hatred spewing all you want, but thats not really reality. They talked up spending when the time was right many times and I guess the time was just never right. The way I see it, that roster ended up exactly as so many predicted and they were just the ones that didnt see it coming.

 

[GCK]

@Gesus,

He has promised to spend again, but it’s not going to happen if we have 16,000 showing up for games.

 

[Dingle]

I by no means am a defender of Melnyk. I used to give him some benefit of doubt as he saved the club but the Parliament Hill outburst was a breaking point. While what he said may of had some merit, it was inappropriate in tone, timing and delivery. Melnyk needs to go.

onto the other issue. There are a million theories regarding attendance decking prior to Melnykout.
Phoenix, atmosphere, parking, location, performance, hot water, etc... I really believe we needed a reboot. When the team kept reaching to get into the playoffs the team grew stale. The last bit of excitement was EK as a new player. Watching a team grow from the basement to the top through homegrown players is really what this city loves. Remember Redden, Alfie, Hossa, Havlat, etc..., that was the apex of this city’s passion for the Sens. I feel it coming again and I hope EM doesn’t ruin it.

Unfortunately A has come before B..the club is now last in attendance. almost 6 k down from max capacity. At $100 for ticket, concessions, parking, etc. You are talking $700 k/game...at 41 home dates, 3 pre-season... the club will be down $30 MILLION dollars. If accurate and the club is already $165 million in debt...I am not sure how we move from here??? how will he pay operations costs. You don't just borrow 30 million on top of the 165. The club and building are 600-700 million. Can you imagine 200 million in debt

He may be on the cusp of bankrupting the club..which I suppose will mean a potential new owner....Lets hope their are buyers out there.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Unfortunately A has come before B..the club is now last in attendance. almost 6 k down from max capacity. At $100 for ticket, concessions, parking, etc. You are talking $700 k/game...at 41 home dates, 3 pre-season... the club will be down $30 MILLION dollars. If accurate and the club is already $165 million in debt...I am not sure how we move from here??? how will he pay operations costs. You don't just borrow 30 million on top of the 165. The club and building are 600-700 million. Can you imagine 200 million in debt

He may be on the cusp of bankrupting the club..which I suppose will mean a potential new owner....Lets hope their are buyers out there.

Hard to believe a new owner would come and buy a club to which the team can't sell out.

Also, have you read about the revenue sharing in the league? Pretty interesting how the league shares revenues to help the small market clubs.

 

[GCK]

Hard to believe a new owner would come and buy a club to which the team can't sell out.

Also, have you read about the revenue sharing in the league? Pretty interesting how the league shares revenues to help the small market clubs.

50 per cent of playoff gates go to revenue sharing. I think EM is pulling for a long run by the leafs.

 

[Dingle]

Hard to believe a new owner would come and buy a club to which the team can't sell out.

Also, have you read about the revenue sharing in the league? Pretty interesting how the league shares revenues to help the small market clubs.

30 million...add to it the 10 to 11 other clubs dipping into the revenue sharing pot. It had better have a cool 200 million plus in it. The Leafs supposedly (I have no way of confirming, this is based on published numbers from 4-5 years ago) made 80 million..this year maybe a 100 million. So 50 million in the pot..start heading down from there..by the time you hit team 15..you are down to negligible contribution. It may hit the 200 million, but wow....And most owners cannot stand each other. If you think Taninbaum will give Eugene 30 million..I have my doubts...They may not loose all 30..but awfully close...This assumes that the MLSE board is okay with giving 50 million. if less...the Sens will not even come close to making due..

Basic math..80 million in salaries ( total commitment, including buyouts, etc.). 10 million front office, 10 million; hockey ops. 10 million; travel, operations.. 110 million....~ 30 million total TV/media. ~ 5 million other sponsorship, etc. That leaves 75 million from gate, concessions, parking.

44 home dates...1.7 million a date...at $100 per head..17 000 fans..There is no magic.

 

[Micklebot]

Hard to believe a new owner would come and buy a club to which the team can't sell out.

Also, have you read about the revenue sharing in the league? Pretty interesting how the league shares revenues to help the small market clubs.

How good was attendance in Tbay when Vinik bought the team?
What was Dallas' attendance when Gaglardi bought the team?

Potential owners are going to be more interested in what a team could do than what they are doing imo. They are also going to care more about the appreciation of the asset than the year to year stuff. You can mitigate poor seasons and low attendance by cutting costs, but the price to buy into the NHL just keeps going up. If one day hockey in Ottawa really does become unsustainable, the league will find a new owner in another location. I don't think we're there yet, there are a lot of fixable issues currently.

 

[Emerica]

@Gesus,

He has promised to spend again, but it’s not going to happen if we have 16,000 showing up for games.

I would trust a promise from an used car salesmen before I would ever trust Melnyk to make good on a promise. What has he ever done to warrant the trust of the fans (or anyone for that matter) ?

 

[GCK]

I would trust a promise from an used car salesmen before I would ever trust Melnyk to make good on a promise. What has he ever done to warrant the trust of the fans (or anyone for that matter) ?

I don’t know why you would ever trust an owner.

 

[TheDebater]

How good was attendance in Tbay when Vinik bought the team?
What was Dallas' attendance when Gaglardi bought the team?

Potential owners are going to be more interested in what a team could do than what they are doing imo. They are also going to care more about the appreciation of the asset than the year to year stuff. You can mitigate poor seasons and low attendance by cutting costs, but the price to buy into the NHL just keeps going up. If one day hockey in Ottawa really does become unsustainable, the league will find a new owner in another location. I don't think we're there yet, there are a lot of fixable issues currently.

Vinik Purchased the Lightning in 2010, the previous 3 seasons Tamap's attendance was:

2009-2010: 15, 497 (21st)
2008-2009: 16,497 (21st)
2007-2008: 18,692 avg (8th)

Gaglardi purchased the Stars in 2011:

2010-2011: 15,073 avg (23rd)
2009-2010: 17,215 avg (17th)
2008-2009: 17,680 avg (14th)

The Sens have seen a steady decline the past 3 years too, but this year is really bad in comparison. We are averaging only 11,652 according to ESPN.com

 

[BatherSeason]

@Gesus,

He has promised to spend again, but it’s not going to happen if we have 16,000 showing up for games.

Many people are still in the show me stage. Re-signing two RFAs doesn't exactly move the needle. RFAs get retained across the league, it's the normal thing to do. No idea what it would take, but completing the POHO hiring process after you announce it would be one nice example, the one man front office doesn't work.

It really doesn't matter who is at fault, all sides need to bend. Melnyk and the org need to do something to get people back on board and the fans and the city have to buy in. Unfortunately, I think it's gonna take a couple of years for things to start looking good again.

 

[Spartachat]

Hard to believe a new owner would come and buy a club to which the team can't sell out.

Also, have you read about the revenue sharing in the league? Pretty interesting how the league shares revenues to help the small market clubs.

You are right. The Chicago Blackhawks, St Louis Blues and Pittsburgh Penguins never recovered from their periods of low attendance. Might as well move the team to a hot market like Kansas City. Melnyk will have no problem paying the $200 million relocation fee in cash.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

We're at the end of the road here.

Fans are where they are, and short of a miracle Cup run, the fans that are at home aren't coming back with Melynk as owner. No point trying to "win" fans to any side of the fence at this point.

 

[Micklebot]

Vinik Purchased the Lightning in 2010, the previous 3 seasons Tamap's attendance was:

2009-2010: 15, 497 (21st)
2008-2009: 16,497 (21st)
2007-2008: 18,692 avg (8th)

Gaglardi purchased the Stars in 2011:

2010-2011: 15,073 avg (23rd)
2009-2010: 17,215 avg (17th)
2008-2009: 17,680 avg (14th)

The Sens have seen a steady decline the past 3 years too, but this year is really bad in comparison. We are averaging only 11,652 according to ESPN.com

How about Dundon and the Canes, or the Islanders when Wang sold?

Point is you don't need to be selling out to have interest. Ottawa has certainly seen attendance plummet, but had stronger numbers in the past. I suspect those interested in purchasing the team will look to past success and asses whether they think they can return the team to that rather than get stuck on what is currently going on when there are pretty clear issues.

 

[Dingle]

How good was attendance in Tbay when Vinik bought the team?
What was Dallas' attendance when Gaglardi bought the team?

Potential owners are going to be more interested in what a team could do than what they are doing imo. They are also going to care more about the appreciation of the asset than the year to year stuff. You can mitigate poor seasons and low attendance by cutting costs, but the price to buy into the NHL just keeps going up. If one day hockey in Ottawa really does become unsustainable, the league will find a new owner in another location. I don't think we're there yet, there are a lot of fixable issues currently.

yes, but there is debt and debt financing. EM claims loses are around 10 million (prior to this year). At 5% borrowing rate and over 10 years. It explains his 165 million down. if this year is closer to 20 or 30 million because of the free-fall in attendance. that debt is 200 and climbing fast. Can you remotely envision 3-5 years at 20-30 million plus interest.

No owner will set foot, until the yearly loses are more manageable..like say 5-10 million.

If team revenue fluctuates between 110 million at 17 000 fans and is down to 90 million at the 11 000 fans ... you are talking about yearly losses in the 10% zone and accruing interest (at 10 million lost a year). Your team value had better climb at 4- 5% a year..a 600 million dollar team had better double every 12 years or so.....which I suppose is reasonable.
At 20 million losses. It better double every 5 years!!!!!!! this is not the NBA or NFL...and even they, do not double that quickly.

OUCH.....this may be Rod Bryden all over again.

 

[Micklebot]

yes, but there is debt and debt financing. EM claims loses are around 10 million (prior to this year). At 5% borrowing rate and over 10 years. It explains his 165 million down. if this year is closer to 20 or 30 million because of the free-fall in attendance. that debt is 200 and climbing fast. Can you remotely envision 3-5 years at 20-30 million plus interest.

No owner will set foot, until the yearly loses are more manageable..like say 5-10 million.

If team revenue fluctuates between 110 million at 17 000 fans and is down to 90 million at the 11 000 fans ... you are talking about yearly losses in the 10% zone and accruing interest (at 10 million lost a year). Your team value had better climb at 4- 5% a year..a 600 million dollar team had better double every 12 years or so.....which I suppose is reasonable.
At 20 million losses. It better double every 5 years!!!!!!! this is not the NBA or NFL...and even they, do not double that quickly.

OUCH.....this may be Rod Bryden all over again.

Lol 20 to 30 mil in loses is not going to happen. Actual expenditure on salaries has plummeted thanks to some creative trades by Dorion and selling off of all the star players and for every dollar we lose in revenue you can expect about 30 cents back in revenue sharing.

 

[Spartachat]

yes, but there is debt and debt financing. EM claims loses are around 10 million (prior to this year). At 5% borrowing rate and over 10 years. It explains his 165 million down. if this year is closer to 20 or 30 million because of the free-fall in attendance. that debt is 200 and climbing fast. Can you remotely envision 3-5 years at 20-30 million plus interest.

No owner will set foot, until the yearly loses are more manageable..like say 5-10 million.

If team revenue fluctuates between 110 million at 17 000 fans and is down to 90 million at the 11 000 fans ... you are talking about yearly losses in the 10% zone and accruing interest (at 10 million lost a year). Your team value had better climb at 4- 5% a year..a 600 million dollar team had better double every 12 years or so.....which I suppose is reasonable.
At 20 million losses. It better double every 5 years!!!!!!! this is not the NBA or NFL...and even they, do not double that quickly.

OUCH.....this may be Rod Bryden all over again.

If it is so bad Melnyk can put the team up for sale. Until he cannot find any buyers to take the team, I will not feel sorry for him.

 

[TheDebater]

How about Dundon and the Canes, or the Islanders when Wang sold?

Point is you don't need to be selling out to have interest. Ottawa has certainly seen attendance plummet, but had stronger numbers in the past. I suspect those interested in purchasing the team will look to past success and asses whether they think they can return the team to that rather than get stuck on what is currently going on when there are pretty clear issues.

I agree but in business, every sale is only worth the price that the buyer is willing to pay. If a prospective buyer deems there is too much risk to lose money in the first few seasons after purchasing, then you know their offer is going to be low. I highly doubt any buyer will pay what Melnyk is asking unless attendance numbers return to what they were between the two lock-outs.

 

[Spartachat]

I agree but in business, every sale is only worth the price that the buyer is willing to pay. If a perspective buyer deems there is too much risk to lose money in the first few seasons after purchasing, then you know their offer is going to be low. I highly doubt any buyer will pay what Melnyk is asking unless attendance numbers return to what they were between the two lock-outs.

Blame Melnyk for destroying the value of the team. He could have sold it when the Lebreton deal was still place and when attendance was still decent, but he didn't. If the team was such a money loser he would be scrambling to sell, but he is not.

 

[GCK]

We're at the end of the road here.

Fans are where they are, and short of a miracle Cup run, the fans that are at home aren't coming back with Melynk as owner. No point trying to "win" fans to any side of the fence at this point.

I do t believe that. There are some, especially on here that won’t get back on board but I think the large majority will jump on board soon enough.

 

[GCK]

Blame Melnyk for destroying the value of the team. He could have sold it when the Lebreton deal was still place and when attendance was still decent, but he didn't. If the team was such a money loser he would be scrambling to sell, but he is not.

He’s not losing money. He can continue on at the floor or a little below and still not lose money for at least 5 more years.