at this point, I see Galchenyuk as a serviceable asset for the Leafs that should fit into the middle-six. I'd re-sign him to something like $6.5M for 3 years ($2M, $2.5M, $2M) if he's interested. He'd be a good stopgap until someone like Amirov, Abramov, or SDA is ready. If these prospects are ready sooner, then the Leafs could recoup the $1.25M or so from paying Engvall. If Galchenyuk stays, you'd be getting fair value at $2M and a potential steal if he puts up 50+ points with consistent two-way play and intangibles. I think he's showing signs of being a late-bloomer; you can see some serious elite skills there (like last night), and sometimes it just takes people longer and the right situation to click. Worst case, he's a moveable asset at $2-2.5M per year and would fetch a B-level prospect or 3rd-5th rounder if nothing else. Based on his Leaf career to date, some team with capspace would take the opportunity to get 3 of his prime years.
Having $3.5M combined salary next year between him and Mikheyev will help with signing more vets and a 1B or great backup for Campbell.
Leafs actually have good leverage here to get Galchenyuk on a discount - if I'm Galchenyuk, I'm not chasing the money on my next contract; Keefe's system and trust in him has been paramount to saving Galchenyuk's NHL career. If I were the latter, I'd look to milk the stability and opportunity to play within the middle 6 to re-up my value.
Options:
1 Year $1.2M
2 Years $2.8M
3 Years $6.5M
- if I'm Galchenyuk and his agent, I would prefer 2 years. Go for the stability and the opportunity to build up significant value while cashing in on a final pay day at age 30. 1 year is too much risk since we don't know if he'll be on the 3rd line or with Nylander/Tavares next year, and what the offseason will look like for the Leafs.
- if I'm Dubas, I go with 3 years at $6.5M with the hope of locking in his prime years at a discount in exchange for stability, a chance at contending each of those 3 years, and opportunity to rebuild value; at age 31, he could probably get something like $14M for 3 years or $18M for 4 years as a final payday if he performs to expectations