After the CBA and new American TV deal, will the cap go up substantially ? Estimates ?

[thewave]

Since we're spit-balling, here's what I think could happen in relation to gambling and extra revenue sources from PPT (puck and player tracking).

This article outlines a couple key points

What new tracking data and gambling might mean for NHL, fans - Sportsnet.ca

SMT with their Oasis platform will be the 'integrity commissioner' of the data from the PPT system. This allows them to own the data (no competition) and protect its integrity, critical for both gambling and costs to consumers for using the data for their own purposes.

One market that's interesting the average NHL stats consumer. From what I've read, the stats coming from the PPT systems will revolutionize the advanced stats. For example, true possession numbers and a much better xG model based on shooting and passing context, true zone entry / exit info with context, etc.

In short, the NHL can sell this data service to both media and consumers. Perhaps it becomes part of an NHL Center ice package? If they can increase the number to subscribers for this package, that can drive significant revenue. Certainly many hockey nerds are willing to pay patreon dollars for this kind of data. If they present the data in an easier to absorb way and provide it in real time, this revolutionary data should be of great value to many hockey fans. No idea how much rev this can provide but increasing Center Ice subscriptions is important for the NHL (perhaps an optional add on?).

MGM has already signed a deal (no financial disclosure of details that I have seen).

The data should be available in full for the 2020/21 season. apparently, they had to change a key hardware vendor that set back the installation schedule.

So what the revenue from these sources will grow to be, who knows? It does appear to em that they architected this in a way to monetize this, which should be good news for growing the cap.

Any thoughts?

I have one thought on NHL Gambling. The League is too close to be gambling on, and because of that many seasoned gamblers will avoid. Local fans betting on your team and this and that, sure thing. Hockey is a pretty terrible sport to gamble on TBH.

I found this regarding sports Gambling... The NHL figures are $216 million in total: $151 million from more fan engagement and $65 million from gaming-related revenue.

More info

Fan engagement and gaming-related revenue details

Nielsen Sports breaks down the additional revenue by source. As one example, for MLB, the extra $957 million in fan engagement revenue comes from:

• Media rights increase by 11.1 percent to $4.2 billion
• Sponsorship increases by 6.8 percent to $952 million
• Merchandise sales increase by 3.4 percent to $683 million
• Ticket sales increase by 12.2 percent to $4.109 billion

Additional gaming-related revenue will come from three primary sources:

• TV Advertising: $64 million
• Sponsorship: $62 million
• Data and Product for Third-Party Gambling Services: $28 million

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I have one thought on NHL Gambling. The League is too close to be gambling on, and because of that many seasoned gamblers will avoid. Local fans betting on your team and this and that, sure thing. Hockey is a pretty terrible sport to gamble on TBH.

Too much puck luck.

 

[CDN24]

Large cap increases benefit teams that have star players already locked up long term. They do not benefit teams that are just starting to sign star players. These bridge deals that were signed this year do not gain any benefit from substantial cap growth in 3 years from now as the cap is not expected to have increased as much yet. Pile on the fact that their next contracts will by buying their most expensive UFA years, whereas Leafs already bought those from Nylander, Marner, Matthews.

When you think of all players signing a percentage of the cap (roster sizes aren't increasing, so this is the right way to look at it), it makes more sense. If the cap goes up 30% between now and 3 years from now, players will all make 30% more on new deals yet have similar cap impact, but those that are already locked up long term will not go up 30% relative to league until their deals are up.

We'll have a few years of great value out of the kids. Then they'll likely re-up for similar cap%'s (if they continue being similar calibre players) on their next deals on 8yr term.

Leafs did not buy many UFA years.

They bought 1 from Matthews, 2 from Marner and Nylander. I don't see a few years of great value, they only teams getting any years of great value seems to be the teams that signed players to a 3 yr bridge contract, they are getting 3 years.

Point's contract implies the top RFA years value is somewhere between his AAV of 6.75 7.31 which would be avg cost of the 4 RFA years if he takes is QO offer at end of this contract to get to UFA status. Lets use the 7.31M number. If we assume Marner and Point are similar players their value should be similar. If Marner is getting 7.31 each for his RFA years, that would imply he is getting Total contract of 65.36 less 4X7.31 over the last 2 RFA years, so 36.11M over 2 years or 18M a year which would be more than you could sign a UFA for today.

The only way the Leafs are getting great value out of that contract is if the guys signing bridges today like Point are earning way over 18M on their next contract. Unless Dubas become GM of the bolts, I don't see it happening.

I don't see any scenario where the benefit the Leafs get on the back end of those deals outweighs the cost in the front years.

 

[thewave]

Leafs did not buy many UFA years.

They bought 1 from Matthews, 2 from Marner and Nylander. I don't see a few years of great value, they only teams getting any years of great value seems to be the teams that signed players to a 3 yr bridge contract, they are getting 3 years.

Point's contract implies the top RFA years value is somewhere between his AAV of 6.75 7.31 which would be avg cost of the 4 RFA years if he takes is QO offer at end of this contract to get to UFA status. Lets use the 7.31M number. If we assume Marner and Point are similar players their value should be similar. If Marner is getting 7.31 each for his RFA years, that would imply he is getting Total contract of 65.36 less 4X7.31 over the last 2 RFA years, so 36.11M over 2 years or 18M a year which would be more than you could sign a UFA for today.

The only way the Leafs are getting great value out of that contract is if the guys signing bridges today like Point are earning way over 18M on their next contract. Unless Dubas become GM of the bolts, I don't see it happening.

I don't see any scenario where the benefit the Leafs get on the back end of those deals outweighs the cost in the front years.

That's exactly it. They signed 3 year deals to get the RFA value. The Leafs bought for full value and Dubas waived RFA value completely for them. That's why our signings are terrible.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

Patrick Roy?
Domick Hasek?
Fleury took Vegas to the finals...that's just off the top of my head

what year is it again?

Binnington, Murray x 2, Crawford/Niemi (2 different goalies, same team)

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Leafs did not buy many UFA years.

Let me just stop you right there. I didn't say they bought many. I said they bought the most expensive. Try again and prove to me that you fully digested the point I made.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Huh ?

The current contract isn't up yet.

Yep, I've been waiting since the 70s. Bettman was going get these US massive nation wide TV contracts with this NBA experience....when he made commissioner 25 years ago.
So, the current contract is up. Contracts have been up before without any big gains in the US market. Would love to see the NHL get a big increase in revenue, but again....we've been expecting this for decades.

 

[thewave]

Yep, I've been waiting since the 70s. Bettman was going get these US massive nation wide TV contracts with this NBA experience....when he made commissioner 25 years ago.
So, the current contract is up. Contracts have been up before without any big gains in the US market. Would love to see the NHL get a big increase in revenue, but again....we've been expecting this for decades.

Gary won the big one last time around. He got a Canadian company (Rogers) that profits largely by way of the CRTC policy to, pay twice as much money as the US for half the captive audience. 400m for Canadians and 200m for US. It's ok though guys because Gary now has a powerful lobby convincing cities to use your money to build new rinks.

Behind the Curtain the NHL is an Anti Canadian socialist hell hole, undoubtedly rife with corruption. Just look at AZ, the Leagues personal slush-fund team. No bigger joke exists in a Pro League that I can think of.

 

[CDN24]

Let me just stop you right there. I didn't say they bought many. I said they bought the most expensive. Try again and prove to me that you fully digested the point I made.

This is what you said

Pile on the fact that their next contracts will by buying their most expensive UFA years, whereas Leafs already bought those from Nylander, Marner, Matthews.

I read the first part of that as the teams that signed their guys to bridges will be buying their most expensive UFA years in 3 years when they extend those guys - no arguement there. I read the second part as you saying the the leafs have already bought those (more expensive years) from Nylander/Marner and Matthews. You used the plural "those" when for Matthews he only bought one.
I pointed out that they will still have to buy expensive years from those 3 if they retain them as they only bought 5 total UFA years over 3 players.

Then I pointed out in Marner's case how much he paid for those 2 years.

I would suggest you try again to prove to me how paying that much for so few UFA years is a bargain.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

This is what you said

Pile on the fact that their next contracts will by buying their most expensive UFA years, whereas Leafs already bought those from Nylander, Marner, Matthews.

I read the first part of that as the teams that signed their guys to bridges will be buying their most expensive UFA years in 3 years when they extend those guys - no arguement there. I read the second part as you saying the the leafs have already bought those (more expensive years) from Nylander/Marner and Matthews. You used the plural "those" when for Matthews he only bought one.
I pointed out that they will still have to buy expensive years from those 3 if they retain them as they only bought 5 total UFA years over 3 players.

Then I pointed out in Marner's case how much he paid for those 2 years.

I would suggest you try again to prove to me how paying that much for so few UFA years is a bargain.

How much do you think Point and others will get for those years? When you see that, then you will see how those years will be great value for Mitch / Nylander / Matthews.

 

[thewave]

How much do you think Point and others will get for those years? When you see that, then you will see how those years will be great value for Mitch / Nylander / Matthews.

So are you trying to say they will get above market value? I mean, you do understand how your argument is Swiss cheese right? Those players that signed for 3 years will get fair market value now based on RFA. Then get fair market value 4 years from now where as, we gave above fair market value for RFA years and will pay Market value after, so we saved nothing. They saved a lot.

 

[Funk21]

Just pulling number out of the air but from my understanding the NHL is expecting 2020-2021 should be close to high 90's to 100 Million. TV money and Expansion.

Next year I would suspect around 84-84.5

Basically next year is the last year for the squeeze and then many teams should have some serious breathing room. Its too bad that the Players Union and NHL can't come up with a better system regarding the hard cap. I really like the idea of a Franchise Player tag that doesn't count against the cap or creating a system that equalizes the tax situation across States and Provinces.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

How much do you think Point and others will get for those years? When you see that, then you will see how those years will be great value for Mitch / Nylander / Matthews.

That didn’t seem to happen with Kucherov. He signed a bridge, and then his next contract was still fair market value.

Dubas overpaid heavily. He was a rookie who was in over his head.

If a veteran gm was at the helm, they could have drawn a line in the sand and told the leaf rfa’s the money they’re willing to offer, or the player can sit. If Dubas did that as a rookie, the players could call his bluff. Losing the star rfa’s to season long holdouts would have likely cost Dubas his job, and ended his gm career in its cradle.

A veteran gm could let them sit without it really hurting their career. The players would have known that.

It was was just such a huge mistake appointing a rookie.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Leafs did not buy many UFA years.

They bought 1 from Matthews, 2 from Marner and Nylander. I don't see a few years of great value, they only teams getting any years of great value seems to be the teams that signed players to a 3 yr bridge contract, they are getting 3 years.

Point's contract implies the top RFA years value is somewhere between his AAV of 6.75 7.31 which would be avg cost of the 4 RFA years if he takes is QO offer at end of this contract to get to UFA status. Lets use the 7.31M number. If we assume Marner and Point are similar players their value should be similar. If Marner is getting 7.31 each for his RFA years, that would imply he is getting Total contract of 65.36 less 4X7.31 over the last 2 RFA years, so 36.11M over 2 years or 18M a year which would be more than you could sign a UFA for today.

The only way the Leafs are getting great value out of that contract is if the guys signing bridges today like Point are earning way over 18M on their next contract. Unless Dubas become GM of the bolts, I don't see it happening.

I don't see any scenario where the benefit the Leafs get on the back end of those deals outweighs the cost in the front years.

Only 1 ufa year bought from Nylander.

 

[CDN24]

How much do you think Point and others will get for those years? When you see that, then you will see how those years will be great value for Mitch / Nylander / Matthews.

I don't see Point getting any more on his next contract in absolute dollars than Marner and Matthews are getting now. In terms of % of cap it will be a bit less as Cap will see some growth but not that much. In three years when Point is up the CAP will probably be somewhere around 87 to 90M max. In that range I could see point getting around 10.5M AAV which would be 11.7 to 12.0% of the cap, right where Stamkos and kucherov were on signing. Stamkos was 11.64% and Kucherov was 11.95%.

Dubas overpaid by a lot. esp on Matthews and Marner.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Fluery was in the cap era

Holtby signed to a 6.1 AAV in 2016 when the cap was 73 mil. 8.3 percent of the cap hit. Washington doesn't win anything without him in net that year. That's how NORMAL TEAMS are built btw. You and I wouldn't know that because everyone on our team who is worth a damn demands 13 percent of the god damn cap to play here.

...what a stupid stipulation though. "has to be in a cap era" as if the cap has any effect as to how well a goalie plays.

The goalies I've listed are top rung goalies that have led their teams to cups. I guess you could also add Brodeur to that list as their is no chance in hell that a New Jersey wins anything without Martin in net.

Your suggesting that we (with the defense we have mind you) will even get to the playoffs without a top goalie in net is asinine.

"lets just buy cheap and wait to see if they get 'hot'" Is your foolish suggestion. Again...with our defense and never mind this market where if you have a few bad games, the media and the fans will jump down your throat and pull out your soul.

It takes a special breed of player to even stay playing in this market. But that's where we are headed anyways because we can't afford to fill out that position with anyone worth a damn.

You can very clearly see a more balanced signing approach on all the teams that have won the cup. Know what teams won't be winning the cup any time soon?

Those that spend over 50 percent of the cap on 4 ****ing players, that's who.

The cap doesn't impact how a goalie plays, I don't know why you would invent that strawman. The amount a goalie was paid pre-cap didn't matter, now that amount is directly taken out of the cap budget available for the rest of the team.

We don't have a top goalie, paying Andersen like a top goalie because he's "close enough" is beyond stupid. A slight downgrade on Andersen and a slight upgrade on the defense with that saved money is the best course of action.

 

[Nineteen67]

Digital companies like YouTube, Facebook, Amazon aren't that interested in direct ad revenue-theyre looking at new inroads into the data of the consumers of the streams which will add incentive into their bids.

Thats not valued at 500 million/year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The cap doesn't impact how a goalie plays, I don't know why you would invent that strawman. The amount a goalie was paid pre-cap didn't matter, now that amount is directly taken out of the cap budget available for the rest of the team.

We don't have a top goalie, paying Andersen like a top goalie because he's "close enough" is beyond stupid. A slight downgrade on Andersen and a slight upgrade on the defense with that saved money is the best course of action.

If "a slight downgrade on Andersen" means going back to the goaltending we've had for the last 15 years or so before Freddie arrived then no thank you. People bitch and moan about Freddie but we haven't had a goalie that good in a very long time and he's a helluva lot more valuable then "a slight upgrade on the defense".

We're not paying Andersen "top goalie" money either so I don't see a problem here.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I don't see Point getting any more on his next contract in absolute dollars than Marner and Matthews are getting now. In terms of % of cap it will be a bit less as Cap will see some growth but not that much. In three years when Point is up the CAP will probably be somewhere around 87 to 90M max. In that range I could see point getting around 10.5M AAV which would be 11.7 to 12.0% of the cap, right where Stamkos and kucherov were on signing. Stamkos was 11.64% and Kucherov was 11.95%.

Dubas overpaid by a lot. esp on Matthews and Marner.

Point’s automatic option is $9mx1. No way he forgoes that leverage for only $10.5mx8.

 

[Nineteen67]

Isn't the deal 8 years old ?

Yes but they still can’t lose money.

 

[thewave]

Point’s automatic option is $9mx1. No way he forgoes that leverage for only $10.5mx8.

You don't get it. They are buying less RFA years. He gave them the RFA discount up front. Our guys gave us NO DISCOUNT. 0 nada zilch

 

[Martin Skoula]

If "a slight downgrade on Andersen" means going back to the goaltending we've had for the last 15 years or so before Freddie arrived then no thank you. People ***** and moan about Freddie but we haven't had a goalie that good in a very long time and he's a helluva lot more valuable then "a slight upgrade on the defense".

We're not paying Andersen "top goalie" money either so I don't see a problem here.

We will have to when his contract is done, which is what this conversation has been about.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We will have to when his contract is done, which is what this conversation has been about.

Ah OK then, never mind.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

That didn’t seem to happen with Kucherov. He signed a bridge, and then his next contract was still fair market value.

Dubas overpaid heavily. He was a rookie who was in over his head.

If a veteran gm was at the helm, they could have drawn a line in the sand and told the leaf rfa’s the money they’re willing to offer, or the player can sit. If Dubas did that as a rookie, the players could call his bluff. Losing the star rfa’s to season long holdouts would have likely cost Dubas his job, and ended his gm career in its cradle.

A veteran gm could let them sit without it really hurting their career. The players would have known that.

It was was just such a huge mistake appointing a rookie.

Long live Lou and his fantastic contracts!

Oh and creating the whole RFA fiasco by not doing his job when he had the chance (plus the Marner bonuses).

Yup. Brilliant vets.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

You don't get it. They are buying less RFA years. He gave them the RFA discount up front. Our guys gave us NO DISCOUNT. 0 nada zilch

he really doesn't. I don't know how these Dubas fans still do it, once those Rantanan and Point contracts came out the writing was on the wall that we got screwed. I thought that was the consensus, I'm shocked that there's still people out there trying to convince people that Dubas did even a decent job.