After the CBA and new American TV deal, will the cap go up substantially ? Estimates ?

[HamiltonNHL]

I feel all these stupidly overpriced RFA contracts are because behind the scenes, it is clear the salary cap will go up substantially after the new American TV deal kicks in and the new CBA is done.

Thoughts ?

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[Advanced stats]

Obviously yes, that's been talked about for a while already.
It's just a matter of how much it goes up.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Obviously yes, that's been talked about for a while already.
It's just a matter of how much it goes up.

Estimates ?

Anyone know if the American TV contract is huge .... will the full salary cap jump from that have to wait til the CBA ? I know there can be the usual year to year increase. I assume the full implications of more TV money will have to wait til the CBA.

 

[54thecup]

Estimates ?

Anyone know if the American TV contract is huge .... will the full salary cap jump from that have to wait til the CBA ? I know there can be the usual year to year increase. I assume the full implications of more TV money will have to wait til the CBA.

I have heard that the new US TV deal could net 800-1B annually. I think the current deal is worth about 200M.

Even a 600M increase will increase the cap by ~9.4M.

I've been looking for more articles / insight on this as well.

My educated guess says we will see a cap of >100M in the next 3 yrs based largely on the US TV deal as well as the bump from gambling revenues.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think that in the off-season they were projecting an 84.5M cap even without any player inflation. In a few years if all this stuff happens, maybe 95M+ to start.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The cap would go up for everyone so I don't know why this would be some advantage for us specifically. Tampa and Boston will spend to the cap, so any increase is also giving them more room. No matter how much the cap goes up, any overpayment is still giving you less flexibility.

 

[Drytoast]

I feel all these stupidly overpriced RFA contracts are because behind the scenes, it is clear the salary cap will go up substantially after the new American TV deal kicks in and the new CBA is done.

Thoughts ?

Does it matter? Would it matter if it did?

Everything is about percentage to the cap now, and we get to look forward to the contract demands of Freddy Andersen and the signing of 5 debasement for next year.

Oh and the fact that we get to reup Matthews in 5 years to something astronomical.

So it's all relative. The percentage stays the same, the numbers just get higher.

 

[Dugath]

If the Cap goes up to high why bother having one. It is meant to limit separation between the big spenders and the markets that just financially can not spend the same.

 

[Drytoast]

The cap would go up for everyone so I don't know why this would be some advantage for us specifically. Tampa and Boston will spend to the cap, so any increase is also giving them more room. No matter how much the cap goes up, any overpayment is still giving you less flexibility.

Boston has Marchand signed to what? 6.1 mil AAV cap hit until 2025?..I don't think they are worried at all about what the cap will or won't do.

 

[Drytoast]

If the Cap goes up to high why bother having one. It is meant to limit separation between the big spenders and the markets that just financially can not spend the same.

We have revenue share. Which means teams like the Leafs get to help fund teams like the Islanders or the like.

 

[Tit]

The cap would go up for everyone so I don't know why this would be some advantage for us specifically. Tampa and Boston will spend to the cap, so any increase is also giving them more room. No matter how much the cap goes up, any overpayment is still giving you less flexibility.

This.

 

[Buds17]

If the Cap goes up to high why bother having one. It is meant to limit separation between the big spenders and the markets that just financially can not spend the same.

There's eventually going to be a limit to how high it can possibly go. The cap being tied to league revenues is a plus though.

 

[Leafsman]

I feel all these stupidly overpriced RFA contracts are because behind the scenes, it is clear the salary cap will go up substantially after the new American TV deal kicks in and the new CBA is done.

Thoughts ?

Don’t forget the introduction of Seattle, if they can draw a good crowd they will bring in more HRR as well.

Although does the HRR being divided by 32 teams have any implications?

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Yes and players after will seek upwards of 15M.

Should have a similar structure that makes big spenders pay a fee and or low spenders accumulate picks at the end of round 1 and/or 2.

 

[NoTouchIcing]

Yes and players after will seek upwards of 15M.

Should have a similar structure that makes big spenders pay a fee and or low spenders accumulate picks at the end of round 1 and/or 2.

I think the MLB has a similar structure (or used to) with classifying Free Agents, tied to picks. It hasn't worked though, as superstar players are sitting out until the season begins until a team gets desperate enough to pay them an exorbitant salary.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I don't think it will go up too much. It all depends on what the Canadian dollar does.

 

[Menzinger]

Does it matter? Would it matter if it did?

Everything is about percentage to the cap now, and we get to look forward to the contract demands of Freddy Andersen and the signing of 5 debasement for next year.

Oh and the fact that we get to reup Matthews in 5 years to something astronomical.

So it's all relative. The percentage stays the same, the numbers just get higher.

It matters for time remaining on their contracts.

The Leafs will still get multiple seasons of play Tavares, Nylander, Marner and Matthews once that cap jumps significantly.

A smart GM can do a lot of things with a few mil in extra cap room for a couple seasons...

 

[Menzinger]

Don’t forget the introduction of Seattle, if they can draw a good crowd they will bring in more HRR as well.

Although does the HRR being divided by 32 teams have any implications?

Seattle and gambling revenues too.

There are multiple trends pointing towards that cap boom in 3 seaskns


Conversely teams are going to have a nightmare dealing with all those 3 year bridge deal rfa contracts that got signed this summer. That offseason is going to make this past summer look like a cakewalk

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Should have a similar structure that makes big spenders pay a fee and or low spenders accumulate picks at the end of round 1 and/or 2.

Hopefully the players told out until then.

And raise league minimum a crap ton.

 

[Drytoast]

It matters for time remaining on their contracts.

The Leafs will still get multiple seasons of play Tavares, Nylander, Marner and Matthews once that cap jumps significantly.

A smart GM can do a lot of things with a few mil in extra cap room for a couple seasons...

But Matthews didn't sign a really lengthy contract. By the time the cap goes up to a point where his contract might seem norm or *gasp* even dated...he gets to reup.

And that's Just Matthews. In between then and now, Dubas will have to find room on the cap for Rielly, Durmot and Andersen to name a few. And then try to flesh out the remainder of his team with a bunch of B level players who are willing to sign cheap.

The cap going up isn't going to help us at all. Heck if we are to assume that Rielly and Andersen are both going to command raises...that alone will nullify any cap increase.

 

[Dough72]

the nba salary cap was static for 7 years straight around 58mil. Then it jumped by 5mil in 2015 and then by 7mil in 2016 which I am guessing was in anticipation of the new media deal similar to how salaries jumped in the NHL this year. Then after the deal it jumped a whopping 24mil in one off-season. (I just got that off basketball reference which used 2015 dollar value)

 

[Clark4Ever]

The cap would go up for everyone so I don't know why this would be some advantage for us specifically. Tampa and Boston will spend to the cap, so any increase is also giving them more room. No matter how much the cap goes up, any overpayment is still giving you less flexibility.

Agreed, although it may benefit us in the sense that we have our core forwards locked up for the foreseeable future. When all the RFAs that recently signed bridge deals with their respective clubs have to sign their next contract, their AAVs could skyrocket based on the pertaining percentage of the cap at that point in time.

Maybe our high end contracts won't look as daunting in a few years.

 

[DarkKnight]

The escrow has to be dealt with and that will be a strong headwind to the cap going up in the near term. Players union is under more and more pressure to deal with it.

 

[Menzinger]

But Matthews didn't sign a really lengthy contract. By the time the cap goes up to a point where his contract might seem norm or *gasp* even dated...he gets to reup.

And that's Just Matthews. In between then and now, Dubas will have to find room on the cap for Rielly, Durmot and Andersen to name a few. And then try to flesh out the remainder of his team with a bunch of B level players who are willing to sign cheap.

The cap going up isn't going to help us at all. Heck if we are to assume that Rielly and Andersen are both going to command raises...that alone will nullify any cap increase.

But BEFORE he reups theyll get a couple seasons with Matthew's under caphit after the new tv deal. Same with Nylander and theyll get three seasons with Marner. Rielly will need a raise - I suspect Andersen will walk. And Dermott is in no position for a major raise yet.

 

[Leafsman]

Seattle and gambling revenues too.

There are multiple trends pointing towards that cap boom in 3 seaskns


Conversely teams are going to have a nightmare dealing with all those 3 year bridge deal rfa contracts that got signed this summer. That offseason is going to make this past summer look like a cakewalk

I think then we will see just how good or bad Dubas did. I think he hedged these contracts against a cap boom and we’ll reap the benefits then while other teams are going through what we already dealt with but are schilling out bigger bucks