After the CBA and new American TV deal, will the cap go up substantially ? Estimates ?

[Menzinger]

I think then we will see just how good or bad Dubas did. I think he hedged these contracts against a cap boom and we’ll reap the benefits then while other teams are going through what we already dealt with but are schilling out bigger bucks

That exactly how I see it. Dubas has made several comments about longer term planning.

Imo the Matthew's and Marner contracts read like Leafs felt.it was better to overpay now, and gamble it pays off during the second half of their contracts. Just need to wait and see if it pays off

 

[Mad hatter]

If the Cap goes up to high why bother having one. It is meant to limit separation between the big spenders and the markets that just financially can not spend the same.

It still should continue to work the same way no matter how high it gets because of the cap floor. Teams must spend to it so it won’t be like it was when there was a big difference between the spenders and non spenders.

 

[BigBlu]

When does the league get Seattle dollars? A lump sum or any early installments?

 

[Rogue Leader]

The cap would go up for everyone so I don't know why this would be some advantage for us specifically. Tampa and Boston will spend to the cap, so any increase is also giving them more room. No matter how much the cap goes up, any overpayment is still giving you less flexibility.

Exactly this. I also think that the increase will not match the hype around it.
In reality teams with better tax situations (cough "Tampa" cough) will be able to take more advantage than us, because they will be able to stack super teams.

 

[54thecup]

When does the league get Seattle dollars? A lump sum or any early installments?

Owners get the expansion money, doesn't go to HRR (therefore none directly to players. Not sure of the payout sched.

 

[Nineteen67]

I can’t see an American broadcaster paying much more than current US deal.
ESPN may take over all the streaming and digital rights in the US but I doubt they’ll put anything on their networks.

 

[Fogelhund]

I have heard that the new US TV deal could net 800-1B annually. I think the current deal is worth about 200M.

Even a 600M increase will increase the cap by ~9.4M.

I've been looking for more articles / insight on this as well.

My educated guess says we will see a cap of >100M in the next 3 yrs based largely on the US TV deal as well as the bump from gambling revenues.

To hope for a 400 to 500% increase in TV rights dollars, seems incredibly optimistic, particularly given the high probability of what could be a severe recession between now and then.

 

[Drytoast]

But BEFORE he reups theyll get a couple seasons with Matthew's under caphit after the new tv deal. Same with Nylander and theyll get three seasons with Marner. Rielly will need a raise - I suspect Andersen will walk. And Dermott is in no position for a major raise yet.

If Andersen walks we are Chicago. Expect some playoffs missed. And Dermot will obviously want a mil or more than what he's making at entry level.

 

[Menzinger]

If Andersen walks we are Chicago. Expect some playoffs missed.

Or they can just trade for another goalie...

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If Andersen walks we are Chicago. Expect some playoffs missed.

Some guy named Jordan Binnington (total fake name, btw) and Jake Allen just won a stanley cup.

 

[Drytoast]

Some guy named Jordan Binnington (total fake name, btw) and Jake Allen just won a stanley cup.

that's basically winning the lottery. so yes. if we win the lottery we will be fine! thought it was nice for binnington to reup for only 4 mil a year for 3 years. you know? to give his team a bit of time to stay together? kid just won a stanley cup. he could have at least demanded 11 like our kids do.


and he would be justified. (well more so then they are)

Know who we got to sign with us on comparable contracts?

Kapp and Johnnson. And we call those contracts "team friendly", that's how abused we are.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Exactly this. I also think that the increase will not match the hype around it.
In reality teams with better tax situations (cough "Tampa" cough) will be able to take more advantage than us, because they will be able to stack super teams.

You're exaggerating. That "super team" got swept in the first round by a wild card team. The Panthers have not been good in ages and Bobrovsky did not give them any kind of discount to sign there as a UFA. Panarin spurned them to go to NYC where taxes and cost of living are higher. Way overblown this tax advantage.

 

[Nineteen67]

If Andersen walks we are Chicago. Expect some playoffs missed. And Dermot will obviously want a mil or more than what he's making at entry level.

The Leafs won’t resign Andersen.

 

[ULF_55]

I'm not from Missouri but ... don't spend it if you don't got it.

 

[Heisen]

Think the effect is being vastly overestimated by some.

Current deal: 200M / yr.
Estimated new deal: 600M / yr (not going to search the source, but I have seen this)

First, you're not doing the math at 600. The new revenue is 400M, the first 200 was already part of the cap.

Second, 50/50 HRR. So, $200M / 32 teams = $6.25M on the cap.

These people claiming 9+ bumps to the cap are out of their mind.

 

[Drytoast]

The Leafs won’t resign Andersen.

The Leafs *can't* resign andersen. Or I should say, if they do...someone has to go.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

To hope for a 400 to 500% increase in TV rights dollars, seems incredibly optimistic, particularly given the high probability of what could be a severe recession between now and then.

inflation and recession. Yippee!

 

[Nineteen67]

The Leafs *can't* resign andersen. Or I should say, if they do...someone has to go.

They don’t need him in two years.

 

[Drytoast]

They don’t need him in two years.

 

[Nineteen67]

Think the effect is being vastly overestimated by some.

Current deal: 200M / yr.
Estimated new deal: 600M / yr (not going to search the source, but I have seen this)

First, you're not doing the math at 600. The new revenue is 400M, the first 200 was already part of the cap.

Second, 50/50 HRR. So, $200M / 32 teams = $6.25M on the cap.

These people claiming 9+ bumps to the cap are out of their mind.

would anyone pay 600 per year for NHL rights? .

 

[Nineteen67]

If they open a window that should be their window to win and that’s only assuming they upgrade the goaltending. Why would they want Andersen unless he’s will to backup for 1.5 per year.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

The Leafs *can't* resign andersen. Or I should say, if they do...someone has to go.

signing Andersen or trading a other player does not require much thought for me. I don’t let my MVP walk. Now he hasn’t been good start but it is usual for him for some very strange reason. Great we have bottom six depth propping up our competitiveness.

Solid depth throughout the system is the strong point Shanny said he wanted from the beginning. This management group is cutting edge different. It will be curious to see how significant the slight over pays for Matthews and Marner look in their 4th 5th and Marners 6 th year. Willy is already proven to be a value contract at this short period out from his holdout.

Fans have absolutely no finger on the pulse or where fair market value exists in any given year. It is obvious the new Nhl with gambling and television revenue increases is better understood by insiders. Bettman love him or hate him has certainly done a outstanding job growing the game and its revenues.

There will be cap space to sign or players in the future. Andy,Rielly and Dermott Will be signed easily

 

[Heisen]

would anyone pay 600 per year for NHL rights? .

I see it hitting 500, max. A $4.7M bump combined with the (hopefully) natural growth of $1.5-$2.5M... that's still quite the relief in one off-season. It will help a lot of teams, but of course will all be sucked up within months, and we're right back where we were. Never going to see the cap go up $10M in a year.

 

[CDN24]

That exactly how I see it. Dubas has made several comments about longer term planning.

Imo the Matthew's and Marner contracts read like Leafs felt.it was better to overpay now, and gamble it pays off during the second half of their contracts. Just need to wait and see if it pays off

That might be a bad gamble. AM34 only has 2 yrs left after a new TV deal kicks in Marner and Tavares have 3.

The two items that can significantly affect revenues and the Cap are new US TV deal (3 years left including this year)
Seattle expansion franchise (2 more years including this one without Seattle.

Seattle moves the Cap up if they generate more than average HHR and down if it is less than average. Some math:

Current cap is 81.5 which implies league-wide HHR is twice that (players get about 50%) so avg HHR is about $163M. to move the cap by a million Seattle would need to generate 64M more than the average (2x32 teams at 50%) or have revenue of $227M in year one. I think to expect much more than a $1M boost from Seattle is asking a lot.

Now current TV contract pays $200M a year- what is effect if it doubles to $400m extra 200M with 1/2 going to salary cap is 100M/32 teams or 3.125 M increase in cap.

To get a $10M bump out of seattle and the TV deal then the deal has to increase to 800m a year giving an extra 9.375M plus a 1M from Seattle.

The big fly in the ointment is escrow, players are paying 14% into escrow basically because the cap is too high and with most teams spending at or near cap we are way over 50%. Players want this to go away so in all liklihood the CAP will not go up dollar for dollar from new TV money. How much is 14% of the current cap -$11.4M

So assume players want to get rid of escrow and TV contract goes up to 800m/yr and Seattle comes on board. For all of those to happen the Cap has to stay fairly flat.

I expect it will go up marginally over the next few years- maybe a $1M to 1.5M per season and I expect players will want to keep escrow down near 5% or less so don't expect a big bump barring a new revenue source (gambling maybe?) I think the players have realized that an increasing cap only helps the current crop of free agents but ends up costing everyone else money in increased escrow.

 

[Leafsman]

It still should continue to work the same way no matter how high it gets because of the cap floor. Teams must spend to it so it won’t be like it was when there was a big difference between the spenders and non spenders.

Plus I never understood complaining about an overpayment in year 1 of a long term contract. That’s kind of how a long term contract works. They’re overpaid at the start and underpaid at the end. Look at Rielly, though his was a little more team friendly