Removing the "eliminated from division/first round bye" from the standings - only Buffalo, KC, and Cincinnati are in play for the #1 seed, and only the North (CIN, BAL) and South (JAX, TEN) divisions have yet to be decided. New England is the lone team outside the playoffs looking in that still controls its own destiny...they'll be rooting hard for a KC loss and a Buffalo win to make the Bills have nothing to play for in week 18. (A Cincinnati win would knock the Bills out of the 1 seed, but they would be technically alive to get it back or move back up to #2.)
AFTER WEEK 16: (x-clinched playoff birth, y-clinched division)
1. y-Buffalo - 12-3 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over KC)
2. y-Kansas City - 12-3
3. x-Cincinnati - 11-4
4. Jacksonville - 7-8 (AFC South leader) (Holds H2H tiebreaker over TEN)
5. x-Baltimore - 10-5
6. x-LA Chargers - 9-6
7. Miami - 8-7
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8. New England - 7-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NYJ) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over TEN and PIT)
9. NY Jets - 7-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT) (Holds common opponents tiebreaker over TEN)
10. Tennessee - 7-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
11. Pittsburgh - 7-8
12. Las Vegas - 6-9 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE)
ELIMINATED: Houston, Denver, Indianapolis, Cleveland
*Tennessee cannot earn a wild card birth - they must earn a playoff birth through a division title.
CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Miami controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- New England controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 17:
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a KC win.
- Kansas City will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a BUF loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.
- Baltimore will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss and a CIN win.
- Miami will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss
- The NY Jets will gain control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a win and a NE loss.
CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 17:
- Buffalo will clinch the top seed with a win and a KC loss.
- Cincinnati will clinch the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss.
- Miami will clinch a playoff birth with a win and a NYJ loss.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win.
- The NY Jets are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- New England is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- Jacknsonville is eliminated from wild card contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win (they will still be eligible for the AFC South crown)