NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[TheGreenTBer]

if the Bengals beat the Bills and both of them, and the Chiefs have the same record, am I right that they would be seeded according to their respective conference records first?

If KC loses a game the Bengals control their own destiny for the 1st round bye.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I should also mention the obvious, namely that if the Jaguars somehow find a way to actually take the South I want nothing whatsoever to do with them.

 

[GKJ]

I should also mention the obvious, namely that if the Jaguars somehow find a way to actually take the South I want nothing whatsoever to do with them.

It’s the playoffs, you gotta play someone, lol

 

[TheGreenTBer]

It’s the playoffs, you gotta play someone, lol

I just came off of 30+ years of no playoff wins, the wounds are still healing lol

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Official scenarios - I think chainsaw pretty much nailed it but there are some with ties and you can't dismiss the threat of a tie anymore: Playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16 of 2022 NFL season

Buffalo Bills (11-3) (at Chicago (3-11), Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with:

1. BUF win or tie OR
2. MIA loss or tie

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) (at New England (7-7), Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Cincinnati clinches playoff berth with:

1. CIN win or tie OR
2. NYJ loss or tie

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) (vs. Atlanta (5-9), Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX)
Baltimore clinches playoff berth with:

1. BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NE loss or tie OR
2. BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie OR
3. BAL win + NE loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie OR
4. BAL tie + NE loss + NYJ loss OR
5. BAL tie + NE loss + MIA loss + LAC win OR
6. BAL tie + NE loss + MIA loss + NYJ tie OR
7. BAL tie + NE loss + NYJ tie + LAC win OR
8. BAL tie + NE tie + NYJ loss + MIA loss OR
9. BAL tie + NE tie + NYJ tie + MIA loss + LAC win OR
10. NE loss + NYJ loss + CLE loss or tie + LV loss or tie + TEN loss or tie + LAC win

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) (at Indianapolis (4-9-1), Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN, ESPN Deportes)
Los Angeles clinches playoff berth with:

1. LAC win + LV loss or tie + NE loss + NYJ loss OR
2. LAC win + LV loss or tie + NE loss + NYJ tie + MIA loss OR
3. LAC win + LV loss or tie + NE tie + NYJ loss + MIA loss

 

[daver]

No, the Bengals would have beaten both the Bills and Chiefs, and the Bills would have beaten KC, so it'd go 1) Bengals 2) Bills 3) Chiefs on head to head.

Interesting, adds even more on the line for the Bill/Bengals game.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I'm actually impressed that the Chargers can possibly clinch a playoff berth this week after what they've been through this year. It wouldn't surprise me if Herbert goes God mode and they win a playoff game or two. It also wouldn't surprise me if they either miss the playoffs or lose in them in spectacular fashion. They're a Schrodinger's Cat team and we have to wait until the box is checked, so to speak.

 

[Blitzkrug]

It’s the playoffs, you gotta play someone, lol

Nah, the true chad play is to just not make them

the Dolphins are the real kings of the NFL. Realizing the playoffs ain't worth that stress.

 

[mulli25]

I should also mention the obvious, namely that if the Jaguars somehow find a way to actually take the South I want nothing whatsoever to do with them.

This isn't the Marvin/Andy Bengals anymore

I truly don't care who we play. We're the shitty draw now that no one wants. They have to play us.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

This isn't the Marvin/Andy Bengals anymore

I truly don't care who we play. We're the shitty draw now that no one wants. They have to play us.

I don't think we're an easy out by any means, but there are certainly teams I'd choose to play over others.

I like your attitude though.

 

[Blitzkrug]

I have the weirdest feeling that despite every little thing lining up (beating Dallas, Tannehill being done for the season, Titans in freefall) the Jags are still going to Jag and somehow miss out on that division title.

You play the Jets starting garbage and the Texans. All you need is at least one win.

The real winning scenario is this;

Jacksonville loses two out of their remaining three games, with the one win coming against the Titans.

The Titans lose all three of their remaining games

the Colts win all three of their remaining games

The result would be the garbage ass 7-9-1 Colts would win the AFC South and win the prize of beating the Ravens in the wild card round before playing an actual football team like the Chiefs, Bills or Bengals in the divisional round.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Six teams, three spots, three weeks left: Barnwell sorts the AFC wild-card playoff field

The Jaguars and Jets are lurking in the postseason race, but they'll need help. Here's how the wild-card picture could shake out.

www.espn.com

 

[Troy McClure]

 

[TheGreenTBer]

The 3-0 part is not totally out of the question given that schedule, though I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Updated Dolphins playoff situation.

They clinch with ANY 2 wins in its final 3 games.
They can still get in with ONE win in ANY remaining game as long as:

1. Seattle beats the Jets (very plausible)
2. Buffalo beats the Pats (very plausible)

Obviously, getting the 5 seed is the optimum goal but they will pretty much need to win all 3 games AND have the Ravens & Chargers lose one more game each.

 

[Halladay]

Not that I think they will but the Patriots are in if they win their final 2 games.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

It's gonna come down to that Jets @ Miami game week 18 for the final spot, book it

Hmmm

 

[Ace]

Miami is so lucky that everyone behind them is terrible. They’d be done if any of like…four crap teams could win games they should once in a while.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Tiebreakers for the teams left at 10, 9, and 8 wins: (just take the teams out that aren't involved)

At 10 wins:
In a head to head tiebreaker LAC > MIA > BAL
In a three way tie LAC tops MIA if the Chargers loss is to the Rams but MIA tops LAC if LAC's loss is to the Broncos or Colts. Baltimore loses tiebreakers either way

At 9 wins with Chargers lone win over DEN:
NE > LAC > NYJ > MIA > PIT
At 9 wins with Chargers lone win over LAR*:
NE > NYJ > LAC > MIA > PIT
*If PIT is involved, MIA leapfrogs LAC.
AT 9 wins with Chargers lone win over IND:
LAC > NE > NYJ > MIA > PIT

At 8 wins
JAX > LV > NE > NYJ > LAC > MIA > CLE > TEN > PIT
LAC here could leapfrog ahead of NE if their strength of victory passes them. (currently .435 to .381)
Also, if the Jets win is over Seattle, LAC and NYJ swap places.
*If no AFC East or North teams are 8-9, and TEN, LV, and LAC are all 8-9 (and JAX wins the AFC South), then TEN > LV > LAC

That chain of command (so to speak) at 8 wins is surprisingly rigid - there aren't any H2H wins by teams below that would change a tiebreaker based on if it's H2H or 3/4 way ties except for TEN and LV noted above. So just remove the teams not involved and there's your order.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Playoff clinching scenarios for week 17:

 

[Super Fadio Bro]

Bills vs Bengals look fun. The winner clinch either home-field (Bills) or a division (Bengals).

 

[FireDJ]

Winer take all week 18 game for the AFC South, c'mon jags!!!

 

[misterchainsaw]

Bills vs Bengals look fun. The winner clinch either home-field (Bills) or a division (Bengals).

With help. Bills need a KC loss, Bengals need a Ravens loss to clinch this week.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Removing the "eliminated from division/first round bye" from the standings - only Buffalo, KC, and Cincinnati are in play for the #1 seed, and only the North (CIN, BAL) and South (JAX, TEN) divisions have yet to be decided. New England is the lone team outside the playoffs looking in that still controls its own destiny...they'll be rooting hard for a KC loss and a Buffalo win to make the Bills have nothing to play for in week 18. (A Cincinnati win would knock the Bills out of the 1 seed, but they would be technically alive to get it back or move back up to #2.)

AFTER WEEK 16: (x-clinched playoff birth, y-clinched division)
1. y-Buffalo - 12-3 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over KC)
2. y-Kansas City - 12-3
3. x-Cincinnati - 11-4
4. Jacksonville - 7-8 (AFC South leader) (Holds H2H tiebreaker over TEN)
5. x-Baltimore - 10-5
6. x-LA Chargers - 9-6
7. Miami - 8-7
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8. New England - 7-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NYJ) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over TEN and PIT)
9. NY Jets - 7-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT) (Holds common opponents tiebreaker over TEN)
10. Tennessee - 7-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
11. Pittsburgh - 7-8
12. Las Vegas - 6-9 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE)
ELIMINATED: Houston, Denver, Indianapolis, Cleveland
*Tennessee cannot earn a wild card birth - they must earn a playoff birth through a division title.

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Miami controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- New England controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 17:
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a KC win.
- Kansas City will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a BUF loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.
- Baltimore will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss and a CIN win.
- Miami will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss
- The NY Jets will gain control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a win and a NE loss.

CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 17:
- Buffalo will clinch the top seed with a win and a KC loss.
- Cincinnati will clinch the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss.
- Miami will clinch a playoff birth with a win and a NYJ loss.

- Las Vegas is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win.
- The NY Jets are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- New England is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- Jacknsonville is eliminated from wild card contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win (they will still be eligible for the AFC South crown)

 

[PanthersPens62]

Removing the "eliminated from division/first round bye" from the standings - only Buffalo, KC, and Cincinnati are in play for the #1 seed, and only the North (CIN, BAL) and South (JAX, TEN) divisions have yet to be decided. New England is the lone team outside the playoffs looking in that still controls its own destiny...they'll be rooting hard for a KC loss and a Buffalo win to make the Bills have nothing to play for in week 18. (A Cincinnati win would knock the Bills out of the 1 seed, but they would be technically alive to get it back or move back up to #2.)

AFTER WEEK 16: (x-clinched playoff birth, y-clinched division)
1. y-Buffalo - 12-3 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over KC)
2. y-Kansas City - 12-3
3. x-Cincinnati - 11-4
4. Jacksonville - 7-8 (AFC South leader) (Holds H2H tiebreaker over TEN)
5. x-Baltimore - 10-5
6. x-LA Chargers - 9-6
7. Miami - 8-7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. New England - 7-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NYJ) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over TEN and PIT)
9. NY Jets - 7-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT) (Holds common opponents tiebreaker over TEN)
10. Tennessee - 7-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
11. Pittsburgh - 7-8
12. Las Vegas - 6-9 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE)
ELIMINATED: Houston, Denver, Indianapolis, Cleveland
*Tennessee cannot earn a wild card birth - they must earn a playoff birth through a division title.

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Jacksonville controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Miami controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- New England controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 17:
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a KC win.
- Kansas City will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a BUF loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.
- Baltimore will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss and a CIN win.
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss
- The NY Jets will gain control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a win and a NE loss.

CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 17:
- Buffalo will clinch the top seed with a win and a KC loss.
- Cincinnati will clinch the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss.
- Miami will clinch a playoff birth with a win and a NYJ loss.

- Las Vegas is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win.
- The NY Jets are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- New England is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- Jacknsonville is eliminated from wild card contention with a loss, MIA win, or NYJ win (they will still be eligible for the AFC South crown)

Pretty sure Miami loses control of their own destiny for a playoff spot if they lose on Sunday.. That would mean they would have to beat the Jets in Week 18 AND have Buffalo beat the Pats. (praying that the Bills will still have to win that game to wrap up the #1 seed.)