NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[misterchainsaw]

Well the deadline has come and past, and we're a week later than we were last year when we started these threads, so without further ado, a way too early look at the playoff races;

AFTER WEEK 8:
1. Buffalo - 6-1
2. Tennessee - 5-2 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Kansas City)
3. Kansas City - 5-2
4. Baltimore - 5-3 (AFC North leader)
5. NY Jets - 5-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. Miami)
6. Miami - 5-3
7. LA Chargers - 4-3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. New England - 4-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Cincinnati)
9. Cincinnati - 4-4
10. Indianapolis - 3-4-1
11. Cleveland - 3-5 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over Denver)
12. Denver - 3-5
13. Las Vegas - 2-5
14. Jacksonville - 2-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Pittsburgh)
15. Pittsburgh - 2-6
16. Houston - 1-5-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY: Note: Only the highest level (among 1st round bye, division title, and making the playoffs) a team controls their own destiny for will be listed here - if a team controls their own destiny for the first round bye, they also control their own destiny to make the playoffs and win their division). A team controls their own destiny if they obtain a certain spot 100% of the time if they win every game for the rest of the year.

- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the AFC West
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Miami controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- New England controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Las Vegas controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 9:
- The NY Jets will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.
- Miami will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a BUF loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a KC loss and an LAC loss.
- Pittsburgh will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a BAL loss and a CIN loss.
- Cincinnati will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a NYJ win, MIA win, TEN win, and IND win.
- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss.
- Las Vegas will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a CIN, BAL, and KC loss.

NO CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 9.

Click to read more...

 

[GKJ]

I still believe in the Bengals. Need to turn around that 0-3 division record though.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I still believe in the Bengals. Need to turn around that 0-3 division record though.

Somehow I left them off the list....
I'll check when I get into the office but I'm fairly sure at 4-4 they control their own destiny for a wild card spot. At 0-3 in the division they do not control the AFC North, however.

EDIT: Cincinnati scenarios added. They can lose control of their own destiny at 12-5 with a loss this week despite the fact they have tiebreakers over the entire AFC East as well as the Titans in that scenario - but only with a Jet, Dolphin, Titan, and Colt win. That could create a scenario where there's a 3 way tie at 13-4 in the AFC East (two of those teams being wild cards), then Tennessee could finish 13-4 with Indianapolis finishing 12-4-1 to steal the last wild card spot. here's the scenario

 

[awfulwaffle]

If the Dolphins can get their Defense in order, the Dolphins could be scary. I'm not a fan of going blow for blow, but it's been working for them so far. I'd like to be able to have a game where Tua and the offense puts it out of reach and they can bench Tua for the rest of the game. Say what you want about Tua, and how the defense bailed him out when he first started playing in the NFL. Seems like the roles have reversed, and Tua is the one bailing out the defense by being able to move the ball and allowing the offense to put up points.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

It's gonna come down to that Jets @ Miami game week 18 for the final spot, book it

 

[misterchainsaw]

Game and a half difference between 9th and 10th. Certainly still time for a run for someone like Denver, but it's increasingly looking like 9 spots for 7 teams.

AFTER WEEK 9:
1. Buffalo - 6-2 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over KC)
2. Kansas City - 6-2
3. Baltimore - 6-3 (AFC North leader)
4. Tennessee - 5-3 (AFC South leader)
5. NY Jets - 6-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. Miami)
6. Miami - 6-3
7. LA Chargers - 5-3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. New England - 5-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Cincinnati)
9. Cincinnati - 5-4
10. Indianapolis - 3-5-1
11. Cleveland - 3-5 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over Denver)
12. Denver - 3-5
13. Jacksonville - 3-6
14. Las Vegas - 2-6
15. Pittsburgh - 2-6
16. Houston - 1-6-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the AFC West
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- New England controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 10 :
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a loss and a KC win.
- Kansas City will gain control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a win and a BUF loss.
- Miami will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss and a BUF win.
- The LA Chargers will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a win and a KC loss.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a win, a KC loss, and a LAC loss.
- Denver will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a win, a LAC loss, and a MIA loss.

NO CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 10.

 

[LightningStorm]

Despite the Bills loss this Sunday, it helps that they have H2H against the next 2 seeds (Chiefs and Ravens). While I don't think the Ravens are as good as the Bills and Chiefs, don't count them out for getting the #1 seed, as they have the easiest schedule IMO of the 3. But I still think it will be the Bills or Chiefs, as I don't trust the Ravens week in and week out like those 2. As of now, I think the Bills are still in a favorable position. Better team overall IMO, have H2H, and I think a slightly easier schedule.

If the Dolphins can get their Defense in order, the Dolphins could be scary.

Dolphins defense has a lot of talent, but they only seem to show up at home. They slowed down the Bills offense at home, yet struggled against the Bears this Sunday on the road. If the defense doesn't fix their road struggles, it will be a long 3 week road trip against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills. I like the Dolphins as a team, so I'm hoping their defense can at least be as good as the sum of their parts, especially as Chubb settles in with them.

 

[BB88]

I’d say the Bengals are a bigger threat than the Ravens but Ravens schedule is very soft to end the season

I’d take all defense/offense/QB over Ravens

That Burrows surgery really hurt them to start the season

 

[The Note]

Despite the Bills loss this Sunday, it helps that they have H2H against the next 2 seeds (Chiefs and Ravens). While I don't think the Ravens are as good as the Bills and Chiefs, don't count them out for getting the #1 seed, as they have the easiest schedule IMO of the 3. But I still think it will be the Bills or Chiefs, as I don't trust the Ravens week in and week out like those 2. As of now, I think the Bills are still in a favorable position. Better team overall IMO, have H2H, and I think a slightly easier schedule.


Dolphins defense has a lot of talent, but they only seem to show up at home. They slowed down the Bills offense at home, yet struggled against the Bears this Sunday on the road. If the defense doesn't fix their road struggles, it will be a long 3 week road trip against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills. I like the Dolphins as a team, so I'm hoping their defense can at least be as good as the sum of their parts, especially as Chubb settles in with them.

The Bills are definitely still in the driver's seat for the bye and #1 seed, though I think it may be trickier than we assumed. Allen's elbow/UCL sprain doesn't seem overly serious as of now based on what the Bills are saying but is certainly something to keep an eye on down the stretch. Goes without saying what losing Allen, or having a diminished Allen, would do to the Buffalo offense.

The schedule is interesting too at this point. In the offseason there was a lot of talk about this gauntlet the Chiefs would have to run based on preseason expectations of teams, but they have the 3rd easiest schedule remaining (by opponent win %, which isn't perfect but gives you an idea). The Chiefs toughest games remaining at this point are @ Chargers, @ Bengals, and SEA at Arrowhead. The Bills, meanwhile, have the 12th toughest schedule including games against Miami, Cincy, NE x2 and Minnesota this weekend (we can have a debate on how good Minnesota actually is but they are at the very least solid). The AFC West faceplanting, and the AFC East more or less becoming what people thought the AFCW would be has made this stretch run all the more interesting. Baltimore has a cupcake schedule for sure, with only Cincy remaining on the schedule as a serious team, though the Ravens have found a way to make most of their games interesting this year.

 

[Marco 85]

If the Dolphins can get their Defense in order, the Dolphins could be scary. I'm not a fan of going blow for blow, but it's been working for them so far. I'd like to be able to have a game where Tua and the offense puts it out of reach and they can bench Tua for the rest of the game. Say what you want about Tua, and how the defense bailed him out when he first started playing in the NFL. Seems like the roles have reversed, and Tua is the one bailing out the defense by being able to move the ball and allowing the offense to put up points.

The Fins defense is horrible due to a weak secondary.
Havent been able to stop anyone.
They are 6 and 3 but have been out scored by 11 points.
What a stat considering their offense.

What happens when they go up north and battle the cold weather.
Will Tua be able to throw in the cold, wind and snow?

When Tua‘s able to complete the quick passes. He’s great.
When they are not there. He struggles. Like the Pittsburgh game.
Could have thrown 4 picks but the Steelers secondary could catch one of them.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Still a game and a half between 9th and 10th in the loss column despite Indy's win as Cleveland and Denver both lose again. Result is the top 9 control their own destiny for the playoffs and will through this week no matter what happens.

Also, not only are all 4 AFC East teams currently in the playoffs, but they all control their own destiny to win the AFC East, and Buffalo and Miami could gain control of the #1 seed with favorable results (BUF needs a KC loss and a win of their own, MIA needs both a KC and TEN loss). But since Miami doesn't play, neither TEN nor BAL can gain control of their own destiny even if KC and BUF both lose.

AFTER WEEK 10:
1. Kansas City - 7-2
2. Miami - 7-3
3. Tennessee - 6-3 (AFC North leader) (Holds conference record tiebreaker vs. BAL)
4. Baltimore - 6-3 (AFC South leader)
5. NY Jets - 6-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. BUF)
6. Buffalo - 6-3
7. New England - 5-4 (CIN is eliminated from tiebreaker via conference record, Holds strength of victory tiebreaker vs. LAC)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. LA Chargers - 5-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
9. Cincinnati - 5-4
10. Indianapolis - 4-5-1
11. Cleveland - 3-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. PIT inside division) (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Denver)
12. Denver - 3-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
13. Pittsburgh - 3-6
14. Jacksonville - 3-7
15. Las Vegas - 2-7
16. Houston - 1-7-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East.
- New England controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 11 :
- Kansas City will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss.
- Miami will gain control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a KC and TEN loss.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a win and KC loss.
- The NY Jets will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.

NO CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 11.

 

[The Note]

Still a game and a half between 9th and 10th in the loss column despite Indy's win as Cleveland and Denver both lose again. Result is the top 9 control their own destiny for the playoffs and will through this week no matter what happens.

Also, not only are all 4 AFC East teams currently in the playoffs, but they all control their own destiny to win the AFC East, and Buffalo and Miami could gain control of the #1 seed with favorable results (BUF needs a KC loss and a win of their own, MIA needs both a KC and TEN loss). But since Miami doesn't play, neither TEN nor BAL can gain control of their own destiny even if KC and BUF both lose.

AFTER WEEK 10:
1. Kansas City - 7-2
2. Miami - 7-3
3. Tennessee - 6-3 (AFC North leader) (Holds conference record tiebreaker vs. BAL)
4. Baltimore - 6-3 (AFC South leader)
5. NY Jets - 6-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. BUF)
6. Buffalo - 6-3
7. New England - 5-4 (CIN is eliminated from tiebreaker via conference record, Holds strength of victory tiebreaker vs. LAC)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. LA Chargers - 5-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
9. Cincinnati - 5-4
10. Indianapolis - 4-5-1
11. Cleveland - 3-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker vs. PIT inside division) (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Denver)
12. Denver - 3-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
13. Pittsburgh - 3-6
14. Jacksonville - 3-7
15. Las Vegas - 2-7
16. Houston - 1-7-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East.
- New England controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 11 :
- Kansas City will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss.
- Miami will gain control of their own destiny for a first round bye with a KC and TEN loss.
- The NY Jets will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.

NO CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 11.

Thanks for doing this, fun to follow along on a weekly basis.

 

[Blitzkrug]

I don't think Miami holds that #2 seed, but my god is it ever great to see them finally be legitimately good probably for the first time post Marino.

 

[PanthersPens62]

I don't think Miami holds that #2 seed, but my god is it ever great to see them finally be legitimately good probably for the first time post Marino.

Its going to come down to that 3 week road gauntlet they are going to face to begin December.....at SF/LAC/Buf. I'm hoping for at least 1 win. If they can somehow win 2 of the 3, their finish is manageable with home games against GB, the Jets & at NE.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Won't have the update till Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday, but I think the Chargers and one of the Pats/Jets ends up missing (obviously advantage Pats right now with the tiebreaker owned over NY).

 

[StreetHawk]

Won't have the update till Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday, but I think the Chargers and one of the Pats/Jets ends up missing (obviously advantage Pats right now with the tiebreaker owned over NY).

jets without a run game end up leaving wilson exposed. don't think thy make it now that ne swept them and own that tie breaker.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Won't have the update till Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday, but I think the Chargers and one of the Pats/Jets ends up missing (obviously advantage Pats right now with the tiebreaker owned over NY).

The Bengals hold the h2h tiebreaker over the Jets but get crushed on conference record by NE. How does that tiebreaker work at this time? I'll wait till you present the whole thing, but just wondering aloud.

 

[misterchainsaw]

The Bengals hold the h2h tiebreaker over the Jets but get crushed on conference record by NE. How does that tiebreaker work at this time? I'll wait till you present the whole thing, but just wondering aloud.

Right now it's NE, CIN, NYJ. Since divisional tiebreakers happen before conference ones, CIN can't lose a tiebreaker to NYJ unless the Chargers (or another South or West team, which seems highly unlikely right now) also become involved in the tiebreaker.

The current 3 way tie is actually considered 3 different 2 way tiebreakers. First the Pats beat the Jets in H2H for 3rd in the East, then the Pats beat the Bengals for the 6th slot in the conference, then the Bengals beat the Jets for 7th in the conference.

EDIT: Even if the whole conference had the same record, there can only ever be at most a 4 team tiebreaker for conference seedings - one team for each division.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Indy came so close to making it 10 teams for 7 spots, but remains a game and a half in the loss column behind the Chargers and 2.5 back of a playoff spot after Philly scored late to beat them. Also, I missed an elimination scenario - Houston cannot be the number 1 seed (barring any ties). Just too many wins to go around as there are a ton of games left between the top 8. They're just barely missing a complete elimination scenario this week.

AFTER WEEK 11: (f-eliminated from first round bye contention)
1. Kansas City - 8-2
2. Miami - 7-3 (Holds H2H divisional tiebreaker vs BUF) (BAL drops out of 3 way tie via conference record then holds Strength of Victory tiebreaker over TEN)
3. Tennessee - 7-3 (AFC North leader) (Holds conference record tiebreaker vs. BAL)
4. Baltimore - 7-3 (AFC South leader)
5. Buffalo - 7-3
6. New England - 6-4 (Owns divisional H2H tiebreaker over NYJ) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
7. Cincinnati - 6-4 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NYJ)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. NY Jets - 6-4
9. LA Chargers - 5-5
10. Indianapolis - 4-6-1
11. Jacksonville - 3-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE and LV)
12. Las Vegas - 3-7 (Owns H2H divisional tiebreaker over DEN) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE)
13. Cleveland - 3-7 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over PIT) (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over DEN)
14. Denver - 3-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
15. Pittsburgh - 3-7
16. f-Houston - 1-8-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- New England controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 12 :
- The LA Chargers will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss, and either (1)a CIN win and a win for 2 AFC East teams, or (2)All 4 AFC East teams win.
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss and either a NYJ or MIA win.
- The NY Jets will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a NE loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss.
- Kansas City will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and either a BUF, MIA, or BAL win.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win, BAL loss, and MIA loss,


CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 12:
- Houston is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss and a TEN win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and a win for any of: BUF, MIA, NE, NYJ, or CIN,
- Denver is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and one of the following: (1)MIA win, (2)CIN and KC win, or (3)Two of BUF, NYJ, NE win.
- Cleveland is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and one of the following: (1)MIA or CIN win or (2)Two of BUF, NYJ, NE win.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, and BUF, MIA, NE, CIN, and KC all win.
- Jacksonville is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, KC win, CIN win, BUF win, MIA win, and either a NYJ or NE win.

 

[LightningStorm]

I think it's safe to consider the division races in the South and West over. Titans are hot, and the Colts are too mediocre to go on a run and catch them. Meanwhile, the Chiefs win over the Chargers increased their lead to 2 (3 when factoring in H2H), and the Chiefs are simply more consistent week in and week out. As for the great East division, despite all of them having winning records, I thought the Pats/Jets game showed neither team is on the level of the Bills and Dolphins, though most already knew that.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Indy came so close to making it 10 teams for 7 spots, but remains a game and a half in the loss column behind the Chargers and 2.5 back of a playoff spot after Philly scored late to beat them. Also, I missed an elimination scenario - Houston cannot be the number 1 seed (barring any ties). Just too many wins to go around as there are a ton of games left between the top 8. They're just barely missing a complete elimination scenario this week.

AFTER WEEK 11: (f-eliminated from first round bye contention)
1. Kansas City - 8-2
2. Miami - 7-3 (Holds H2H divisional tiebreaker vs BUF) (BAL drops out of 3 way tie via conference record then holds Strength of Victory tiebreaker over TEN)
3. Tennessee - 7-3 (AFC North leader) (Holds conference record tiebreaker vs. BAL)
4. Baltimore - 7-3 (AFC South leader)
5. Buffalo - 7-3
6. New England - 6-4 (Owns divisional H2H tiebreaker over NYJ) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
7. Cincinnati - 6-4 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NYJ)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. NY Jets - 6-4
9. LA Chargers - 6-4
10. Indianapolis - 4-6-1
11. Jacksonville - 3-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE and LV)
12. Las Vegas - 3-7 (Owns H2H divisional tiebreaker over DEN) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE)
13. Cleveland - 3-7 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over PIT) (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over DEN)
14. Denver - 3-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
15. Pittsburgh - 3-7
16. f-Houston - 1-8-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- New England controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 12 :
- The LA Chargers will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss, and either (1)a CIN win and a win for 2 AFC East teams, or (2)All 4 AFC East teams win.
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss and either a NYJ or MIA win.
- The NY Jets will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a NE loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a BAL loss.
- Kansas City will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and either a BUF, MIA, or BAL win.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.
- Cincinnati will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win, BAL loss, and MIA loss,


CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 12:
- Houston is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss and a TEN win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and a win for any of: BUF, MIA, NE, NYJ, or CIN,
- Denver is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and one of the following: (1)MIA win, (2)CIN and KC win, or (3)Two of BUF, NYJ, NE win.
- Cleveland is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and one of the following: (1)MIA or CIN win or (2)Two of BUF, NYJ, NE win.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, and BUF, MIA, NE, CIN, and KC all win.
- Jacksonville is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, KC win, CIN win, BUF win, MIA win, and either a NYJ or NE win.

Chargers record needs to be corrected.....they are 5-5, not 6-4.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Chargers record needs to be corrected.....they are 5-5, not 6-4.

My bad. Wrong number, right position lol.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Running the old playoff sim this is what i ended up with;

1) Kansas City (15-2)
--------------------------
2) Baltimore (14-3) - hilariously easy schedule down the stretch outside a game against the Bengals
3) Buffalo (13-4)
4) Tennessee (12-5)
5) Miami (12-5) - Don't see them beating the Niners because of hot they are right now or Buffalo in Buffalo
6) Cincinnati (10-7)
7) Los Angeles (10-7)

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Running the old playoff sim this is what i ended up with;

1) Kansas City (15-2)
--------------------------
2) Baltimore (14-3) - hilariously easy schedule down the stretch outside a game against the Bengals
3) Buffalo (13-4)
4) Tennessee (12-5)
5) Miami (12-5) - Don't see them beating the Niners because of hot they are right now or Buffalo in Buffalo
6) Cincinnati (10-7)
7) Los Angeles (10-7)

I don't like the Chargers' chances on the road against Baltimore in January. Baltimore can shit away games, yes...but the Chargers are GODLIKE at shitting away games to the point where they're like a car crash and you can't turn away.

Miami can beat Tennessee in the Ryan-Tannehill-Attempt-At-Revenge-But-Really-Just-Run-Derrick-Henry Bowl. I'd pick the Dolphins there.

Buffalo...all comes down to Allen. If he's 100% in body and mind we'll be picking our mouth guards out of our assholes by the end of the first half. But Buffalo is really good at self-defeat so a healthy Bengals team could actually give them problems if the Bills continue to self-destruct. If we get the Bills team the Patriots got last year in the PO's it's an absolute death sentence.

 

[misterchainsaw]

The Indy-Pit game matters so little for what I'm tracking, and I'm not really around for a big update tomorrow, so I'm doing the update now. I'll make the minor changes needed to the standings and a couple of elimination scenarios via edit tomorrow, but definitely wouldn't have had time to do the whole thing.

AFTER WEEK 12: (f-eliminated from first round bye contention)
1. Kansas City - 9-2
2. Miami - 8-3 (Holds H2H divisional tiebreaker over BUF)
3. Tennessee - 7-4 (AFC North leader) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over BAL)
4. Baltimore - 7-4 (AFC South leader) (Holds H2H tiebreaker over CIN)
5. Buffalo - 8-3
6. Cincinnati - 7-4 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NYJ)
7. NY Jets - 7-4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. New England - 6-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LAC)
9. LA Chargers - 6-5
10. Indianapolis - 4-7-1
11. Jacksonville - 4-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE and LV)
12. Las Vegas - 4-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over CLE)
13. Cleveland - 4-7 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over PIT)
14. Pittsburgh - 4-7
15. f-Denver - 3-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over PIT)
16. f-Houston - 1-9-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Miami controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Tennessee controls their own destiny for the AFC South.
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East.
- The NY Jets control their own destiny for the AFC East.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- New England controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 13:
- The LA Chargers will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, NYJ win, CIN win, and BAL win.
- New England will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, NYJ win, CIN win, and LAC win.
- Buffalo will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss and a MIA win.
- Cincinnati will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss and a BAL win.
- The NY Jets will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a loss.
- New England will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win, MIA loss, and NYJ loss.
- Kansas City will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a BUF or MIA win.
- Miami will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.
- Buffalo will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss.

CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 13:
- Houston is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a TEN, NYJ, BAL, and CIN win.
- Houston is eliminated from AFC South contention with a TEN win.
- Denver is eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss or a KC win.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss and either a BAL or KC win.
- Pittsburgh is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss.
- Cleveland is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, and either a NYJ or MIA win.
- Jacksonville is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and any of a NYJ, MIA, or KC win.
- Indianapolis is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and either a NYJ, MIA, or KC win.