Player Discussion: Adam Lowry
- Thread starter Gurilla
- Start date
Ducky10
Searching for Mark Scheifele
- Nov 14, 2014
- 19,809
- 31,386
Really? There was a 4C in the NHL last year who played 15-17 minutes a night against top competition, killed penalties, started mostly in the defensive zone and still had a 5v5 P/60 well above a 4C rate?
Who?
Last edited:
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
irunthepeg
Board man gets paid
I heard his birth certificate has BIG as his official listed first name and Adam is his middle name.
kanadalainen
A pint of dark matter, please.
Maukkis
EZ4ENCE
- Mar 16, 2016
- 10,579
- 7,285
This is a storyline that has been discussed very little this season, and I'm going to take a little risk bringing it up. What the hell is up with Lowry?
Just by doing some statistical comparison (NatStatTrick and Corsica), one can see that Lowry has fallen off a cliff. Below are his stats from 17-18 and 18-19 seasons, in that order.
CF%: 57.64 - 52.29
GF%: 57.50 - 45.45
HDCF%: 64.33 - 51.38
xGF%: 60.91 - 51.89
5v5 points/60: 2.14 - 1.03
5v5 primary points/60: 1.68 - 0.76
EvolvingWild's GAR: 8.8 GAR (670 minutes total, 537 ES minutes) - 0.2 GAR (767 minutes total, 633 ES minutes)
The outright dominance we got to see last year is completely gone. He's still putting up passable possession numbers, but his point production is quite a suspect. EW's model is one way of measuring Lowry's on-ice impact, and it is quite telling: Lowry was a ~9 GAR player last year, and with more minutes this year, his impact has been close to replacement level.
What happened? Last year, I argued that the speedy wingers Lowry played with helped him an awful lot. With our overall speed having gone down the shitter this year, is Lowry feeling the effects this badly?
Just by doing some statistical comparison (NatStatTrick and Corsica), one can see that Lowry has fallen off a cliff. Below are his stats from 17-18 and 18-19 seasons, in that order.
CF%: 57.64 - 52.29
GF%: 57.50 - 45.45
HDCF%: 64.33 - 51.38
xGF%: 60.91 - 51.89
5v5 points/60: 2.14 - 1.03
5v5 primary points/60: 1.68 - 0.76
EvolvingWild's GAR: 8.8 GAR (670 minutes total, 537 ES minutes) - 0.2 GAR (767 minutes total, 633 ES minutes)
The outright dominance we got to see last year is completely gone. He's still putting up passable possession numbers, but his point production is quite a suspect. EW's model is one way of measuring Lowry's on-ice impact, and it is quite telling: Lowry was a ~9 GAR player last year, and with more minutes this year, his impact has been close to replacement level.
What happened? Last year, I argued that the speedy wingers Lowry played with helped him an awful lot. With our overall speed having gone down the shitter this year, is Lowry feeling the effects this badly?
I think it's because of less Copp mostly. I've come to believe Copp was/is the true star of the bottom-6. Not that Lowry is bad, but Copp manages to compensate for the lack of offense from Lowry while still also helping on the D side.
EDIT: actually I would think Copp has earned a look at #2 C. If that worked out, it could be what the Jets roster needs to get to the contender level. I'm not too excited about Little as #2 C, especially with his history with the young wingers, but Little as #3 C is quite something to get excited about. Ofc that would rely on Copp working well at C with two of Laine/Connor/Ehlers
Last year was an outlier. He's scoring at the same rate he has for his career outside of last season. His CF and XGF is ok but he's not playing well enoigh to be our 3C, more like a real good fry liner.
The loss of Armia is underrated in importance on this board imo.
Gabe Kupari
Registered User
Gil Fisher
Registered User
Still curious about hin not fighting Dillon last week and wondering if there is an injury holding him back from peak performance.
rubikscube
Registered User
BIG Adam Lowry's game is built for the playoffs. His physical presence will really be palpable in a few months- I ain't not not worried.
Channelcat
Unhinged user
He is earning his 2.9M easily. Although admittedly he's had a couple rough games in the past month or so.
Neuf
Leaving HFBoards for now
- Dec 17, 2016
- 6,217
- 9,290
Yeah I'm suspicious of injury as well. Copp is good, but Lowry is better than he's been showing lately.
sipowicz
The thrill is gone
- Mar 16, 2011
- 31,658
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- Mar 10, 2010
- 34,903
- 31,360
Only if your post was dated 2017-18.
Copp can do what Lowry is doing on the 3rd line this season if Adam goes down. Don’t get me wrong I still really like Adam but this season isn’t last season magic by any means.
Copper is as smart defensively but he isn't the hardest hitting Jet that is 210 lbs. and 6' 5''.
- Mar 10, 2010
- 34,903
- 31,360
I like Adam’s physicality but on balance I think the category is a bit overrated and Copp does hit at about 50% of the rate as Lowry so he is not a shrinking violet.
If Lowry is coming at them, an opposing D man or forward knows he is going to get hammered if he doesn't move the puck quickly and get out of the way...not so much with Copper.
Don't get me wrong, I think Copper might be the smartest forward we have (defensively) but I will take the more physical player every time.
I love having Copper as Lowry's LWer.
Don't get me wrong, I think Copper might be the smartest forward we have (defensively) but I will take the more physical player every time.
I love having Copper as Lowry's LWer.
You mean like turn and fire everything at the net?
Lowry’s line isn’t out there to light the lamp, they’re there to keep the other teams top 2 lines off the score sheet. A great way of doing that is keeping possession in the offensive zone.
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