Player Discussion Adam Larsson Part IV

[Fourier]

I would say so. Some teams like Nashville have 4 defencemen I'd trade Larsson for.

Larsson is a good player but not a great player. On the Oilers alone you've got Mcdavid, Draisaitl, and Klefbom that have more trade value.

Most teams have 3 great players.

In isolation you take Subban over Larsson. But once contracts come into play things get murkier very fast. $5M in cap space has consequences. Especially when you factor in McDavid and Leon. Subban's contract would tie the team's hands going forward in a way that I believe would not justify the difference between the players.

There is no way I trade Larsson for either Ellis or Ekholm. Ellis has become a terrific defenseman but the Oiler desperately need a guy like Larsson who can play in his own end the way he does.

 

[Diamonddog01]

I'd trade him for at least 100 guys.

3-4 per team.

You are a crazy person...and this is coming from a Canucks fan. Larsson is a beast.

 

[Bank Shot]

In isolation you take Subban over Larsson. But once contracts come into play things get murkier very fast. $5M in cap space has consequences. Especially when you factor in McDavid and Leon. Subban's contract would tie the team's hands going forward in a way that I believe would not justify the difference between the players.

There is no way I trade Larsson for either Ellis or Ekholm. Ellis has become a terrific defenseman but the Oiler desperately need a guy like Larsson who can play in his own end the way he does.

I dunno. Subban is worlds better. If you have a chance to grab an elite player you do it and make the money work. Oilers have lots of guys that aren't worth their contracts that they could dump to make room for Subban.

Funny that contract is the primary concern in a Subban trade but not an Ellis one. Ellis makes $2.5 a season. That is an absolute steal.

I'm not trying to dump on Larsson, but he's not a top 50 player in the NHL. Lets just keep it realistic. He's a good shutdown d-man, but there are a lot of good to great players in the NHL that carry more value.

If SJ came at us with Vlasic, or Burns, or Couture those are easy trades to make. Lots of teams with that calibre of players.

 

[Ol' Jase]

I dunno. Subban is worlds better. If you have a chance to grab an elite player you do it and make the money work. Oilers have lots of guys that aren't worth their contracts that they could dump to make room for Subban.

Funny that contract is the primary concern in a Subban trade but not an Ellis one. Ellis makes $2.5 a season. That is an absolute steal.

I'm not trying to dump on Larsson, but he's not a top 50 player in the NHL. Lets just keep it realistic. He's a good shutdown d-man, but there are a lot of good to great players in the NHL that carry more value.

If SJ came at us with Vlasic, or Burns, or Couture those are easy trades to make. Lots of teams with that calibre of players.

Who on earth would be stupid enough to trade Vlasic for Larsson, when Larsson is trending to be the player Vlasic is and he's years younger?

 

[Asiaoil]

So you trade for Subban and it costs you Drai - that WAS the trade - still want to do it? Or how about the damn we should have just signed Demers and kept Hall nonsense? Here is a post from Leadfarmer on Lowetide's site today on Demers. ...

So all the stats people going to be Panthers fans? Maybe then they would realize what a huge bullet we missed by not signing Demers. Sure people will talk about the might Demers and what a unicorn he is. He is a unicorn. Probably the worst WOWYs in the league for a regular d man unicorn. He is so good that when you take his most common partner, Yandle, and separate them Yandle’s GF% is over 10 percentage points higher than Demers. Thats right, without Yandle, Demers GF% drops below 40 percent. Holy crap thats bad. But wait he plays with a rookie. Well yes he did play about 55% of the time that he played with Yandle he did play with Matheson. The coach played Matheson more total time on ice and EV time than he did Yandle. While their numbers together where horrible 36% GF Matheson was better away from Demers than Demers was away from matheson. 48.7% GF v 46.1% Corsi for was 0.4% better. Looks like Matheson is on his way to lapping Demers. But what happens when you look at Forwards. Trocheck is his most common forward. So what happens when they are seperated. Demers GF drops by 7% more than Trochecks to a once again 40.5%%%%% GF and Corsi drops to 8% lower than trochecks. So you say oh thats just one forward. Well Reilly Smith his second most common forward is also better away from Demers than Demers is from him.

If we signed Jason Demers we would be talking buyout

We got the right guys in terms of need (anchor 1RD and large nasty top 6 winger) and paid in full but in no way overpaid for what we are getting in the playofffs.

 

[oobga]

So you trade for Subban and it costs you Drai - that WAS the trade - still want to do it? Or how about the damn we should have just signed Demers and kept Hall nonsense? Here is a post from Leadfarmer on Lowetide's site today on Demers. ...

So all the stats people going to be Panthers fans? Maybe then they would realize what a huge bullet we missed by not signing Demers. Sure people will talk about the might Demers and what a unicorn he is. He is a unicorn. Probably the worst WOWYs in the league for a regular d man unicorn. He is so good that when you take his most common partner, Yandle, and separate them Yandle’s GF% is over 10 percentage points higher than Demers. Thats right, without Yandle, Demers GF% drops below 40 percent. Holy crap thats bad. But wait he plays with a rookie. Well yes he did play about 55% of the time that he played with Yandle he did play with Matheson. The coach played Matheson more total time on ice and EV time than he did Yandle. While their numbers together where horrible 36% GF Matheson was better away from Demers than Demers was away from matheson. 48.7% GF v 46.1% Corsi for was 0.4% better. Looks like Matheson is on his way to lapping Demers. But what happens when you look at Forwards. Trocheck is his most common forward. So what happens when they are seperated. Demers GF drops by 7% more than Trochecks to a once again 40.5%%%%% GF and Corsi drops to 8% lower than trochecks. So you say oh thats just one forward. Well Reilly Smith his second most common forward is also better away from Demers than Demers is from him.

If we signed Jason Demers we would be talking buyout

We got the right guys in terms of need (anchor 1RD and large nasty top 6 winger) and paid in full but in no way overpaid for what we are getting in the playofffs.

I saw some Demers this year and it really put my mind at ease that the Hall+Demers argument was gonna be thrown out the window by the end of the season. Terrible at defending with his super lightweight stick waving defence style. Got some luck early in the season with some points, but the offense completely dried up too as the season went on. Ended up on the 3rd pairing for long periods because of being exposed. And he woulda costed us 5.5M AAV and would have been on the decline through most of his deal. Not at all what this team needed to add just as we are approaching our window.

 

[Bank Shot]

Who on earth would be stupid enough to trade Vlasic for Larsson, when Larsson is trending to be the player Vlasic is and he's years younger?

I don't think Larsson has the skating to ever reach the level that Vlasic is at right now.

 

[McPuritania]

I'd trade him for at least 100 guys.

3-4 per team.

Wut.

 

[bobbythebrain]

I don't think Larsson has the skating to ever reach the level that Vlasic is at right now.

You can control games in different ways. Weber controls the defensive game by being physical. Vlasic has never come close to what Larsson is doing in that department

IMO Klef is more like Vlasic cuz he isn't overly physical

 

[Aerrol]

I'd trade him for at least 100 guys.

3-4 per team.

...nah man. nah.

I'm a little shocked that any Oilers fan can watch how improved our defence looks and still underrate Larsson this heavily. I definitely have a huge preference for defencemen with good puck skills and skating (see my strong desire to upgrade on Russell), and I think this is crazy talk. Dude gets the puck back along the boards and makes beautiful outlet passes to get us going in the right direction all game every game.

 

[McGoMcD]

I dunno. Subban is worlds better. If you have a chance to grab an elite player you do it and make the money work. Oilers have lots of guys that aren't worth their contracts that they could dump to make room for Subban.

Funny that contract is the primary concern in a Subban trade but not an Ellis one. Ellis makes $2.5 a season. That is an absolute steal.

I'm not trying to dump on Larsson, but he's not a top 50 player in the NHL. Lets just keep it realistic. He's a good shutdown d-man, but there are a lot of good to great players in the NHL that carry more value.

If SJ came at us with Vlasic, or Burns, or Couture those are easy trades to make. Lots of teams with that calibre of players.

I would trade Larsson for Burns and thats it on that list, maybe Couture. Your underrating Larsson. He is just coming into his own as an elite 2 way defeanceman. The points will even come with time. He will be looked at as A McDounagh type Dman in a couple years.

 

[Oilersfan93]

ya'll are quick to forget the coast-to-coast goal Larsson the Scandinavian Viking scored against the Ducks. Come on guys, this dude is a warrior!! I am perfectly fine with our D core, Russell has been exceptional this series. But if we can get a puck moving RHD, we'll be set for the next 6-7 years. The only issue this team faces is getting rid of Eberle and Pouliot, and replacing them with more speed on the wings. And a 3C, that way we can play Nuge on Drai's wing, and caggiula on McDavids, if Pulju doesnt pan out by then.

 

[Bank Shot]

...nah man. nah.

I'm a little shocked that any Oilers fan can watch how improved our defence looks and still underrate Larsson this heavily. I definitely have a huge preference for defencemen with good puck skills and skating (see my strong desire to upgrade on Russell), and I think this is crazy talk. Dude gets the puck back along the boards and makes beautiful outlet passes to get us going in the right direction all game every game.

I don't think saying Larsson is around the 100th best player/contract is underrating him. That's really good. That's in the top quarter of players in the NHL.

If Anaheim offered Getzlaf, Lindholm, or Fowler for him though. I think that those are all pretty damn equal or better trades.

Other teams have good players too.

 

[BlowbyBlow]

I dunno. Subban is worlds better. If you have a chance to grab an elite player you do it and make the money work. Oilers have lots of guys that aren't worth their contracts that they could dump to make room for Subban.

Funny that contract is the primary concern in a Subban trade but not an Ellis one. Ellis makes $2.5 a season. That is an absolute steal.

I'm not trying to dump on Larsson, but he's not a top 50 player in the NHL. Lets just keep it realistic. He's a good shutdown d-man, but there are a lot of good to great players in the NHL that carry more value.

If SJ came at us with Vlasic, or Burns, or Couture those are easy trades to make. Lots of teams with that calibre of players.

The problem for any team is you need above average/elite at almost all positions to win a cup. Exception of goalie in some years. You can say well Carolina one a cup with average D, and Chicago has Crawford/ Detroit Osgood. Those are anomalies but also they had huge over compensation in other areas (namely goal tending for Carolina) and elite forwards/great D- with Detroit.

Ottawa will never win anything yet have one of the best d in the league. Montreal has an elite goalie will never win anything either (sorry habs fans). Even Pittsburgh the fact in 12 years since Crosby was drafted (don't forget they had Malkin/Fleury by that time) they have only had 3 cup appearances and 2 cup wins shows even teams with elite forwards need balance. No offense but Nashville has not one cup appearance maybe P.K. changes that but he also was a world class D, with a world class goaltender and yet the forwards weren't there.

Your telling me you would have made the Draisaitl, Klefbom, Puljuljarvi, ect deal. That's a Philadelphia Flyers deal over and over again

Also when you don't own the rights (drafted/free agenct) to a player and the likelihood of having a one for one deal (Subban/Weber deal) is your team never gets better. Look at Philly there history is one filled with blowing up the team. They always want the big deal and just like NYR in free agency have pushed other teams away the last cup win for either team is 23 years ago.

Hockey follows the protocol almost all the time you draft high end players at all position, develop depth, and you hope you have reasonable contracts. A team like Chicago pays Kane/Toews handsomely but Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson are sweet heart deals, not to mention Hossa's who's a steal. Crawford gets paid maybe a little much (not a huge fan) but they balanced it out. Now they have to hope free agency and other avenues reward them with meddling players your Justin Williams/ Brad Richards/ Chris Stewart type players are available.

 

[Fourier]

I dunno. Subban is worlds better. If you have a chance to grab an elite player you do it and make the money work. Oilers have lots of guys that aren't worth their contracts that they could dump to make room for Subban.

Funny that contract is the primary concern in a Subban trade but not an Ellis one. Ellis makes $2.5 a season. That is an absolute steal.

I'm not trying to dump on Larsson, but he's not a top 50 player in the NHL. Lets just keep it realistic. He's a good shutdown d-man, but there are a lot of good to great players in the NHL that carry more value.

If SJ came at us with Vlasic, or Burns, or Couture those are easy trades to make. Lots of teams with that calibre of players.

Subban is world's better than Larsson offensively. But Larsson is better defensively, and by a fair bit. And that is why the $5M in salary is a big deal. You have the right to your opinion but personally I would not trade Larsson for Subban straight up right now because I think that the difference between the two does not justify the salary gap. And with McDavid and Leon coming up. The impact of that $5M difference to me looks very significant.

You are also right that Ellis' deal is a steal...for two more years. His deal would be up the same year you need extensions for Puljujarvi and Talbot. You had better be prepared to make him the highest paid defenseman on your team because for defensemen points equals dollars. If he's putting up 40 points he will be looking at close to $7M as a UFA.

If you look ahead it is likely that the two most challenging years for the Oilers capwise will be 2018-2019 when McDavid's deal is up. And 2019-2020 when Puljujarvi and Talbot are up. Of course if Pulju does not develop then this is less of an issue, but if you assume he does you are looking for roughly $5-6M in additional money for those two. With a new deal for Ellis you would be adding another $4.5M or about $2.8M more than what Larsson currently makes. There is a big difference between those scenarios.

Larsson's deal is exceptional. He is signed for 4 more years which is almost perfect timing since his deal expires the same year as Sekera's. For me what he does to complement and stabilize the rest of the defense has great value.

 

[21]

It's nice with a defenseman actually playing defense and hitting people.

Guys like Subban, Droughty and Karlsson are obviously vastly superior in the offensive game but Larsson is better in the defensive part of the game, simple as that.

Larsson played a more offensive game in SEL on the big ice but there is a huge difference between SEL and NHL. Somehow he has found (or being forced into) a more defensive role in the NHL and is thriving. Most probably he will score some more points in the future though because confidence is everything.

Larsson is having a fantasic development in Edmonton and now being mentioned together with stud players like Vlasic and Weber, huge upside. Larsson will probably be scary good within 3-5 years.

Regarding the other Swedish defenseman you have, Klefbom, I really hope that he will start utilizing his powerful slapshot (like a bomb) on a more constant basis, it's amazing and a great asset for the Oilers. I truly understand Larsson being amazed by his shot and persuading him into a more offensive role while covering his back, Larsson himself realized the offensive upside in Klefbom.

 

[Mr Sakich]

I don't think saying Larsson is around the 100th best player/contract is underrating him. That's really good. That's in the top quarter of players in the NHL.

If Anaheim offered Getzlaf, Lindholm, or Fowler for him though. I think that those are all pretty damn equal or better trades.

Other teams have good players too.

31 teams x 23 players per team = 683 full time players plus another 20% injury replacement / call ups ets.

top 100 player is top 12%. IMO, Larsson is not far from that.

 

[Bank Shot]

Subban is world's better than Larsson offensively. But Larsson is better defensively, and by a fair bit. And that is why the $5M in salary is a big deal. You have the right to your opinion but personally I would not trade Larsson for Subban straight up right now because I think that the difference between the two does not justify the salary gap. And with McDavid and Leon coming up. The impact of that $5M difference to me looks very significant.

While I suspect your opinion is shared mostly by Oilers fans. I'm sure Nashville fans and most neutral fans would agree with my opinion that Subban for Larsson straight up would be a giant steal for the Oilers.

I like Larsson. Good player, but I don't see the need to try and build him up into something he's not. He's a good stay at home guy like Hjalmarsson In Chicago. He's not a star D-man and that's fine.

 

[Panda Bear]

I mean, if we're talking trading Larsson in a vacuum, then I can understand trading him for any one of 3-4 players on any given team.

 

[MessierII]

While I suspect your opinion is shared mostly by Oilers fans. I'm sure Nashville fans and most neutral fans would agree with my opinion that Subban for Larsson straight up would be a giant steal for the Oilers.

I like Larsson. Good player, but I don't see the need to try and build him up into something he's not. He's a good stay at home guy like Hjalmarsson In Chicago. He's not a star D-man and that's fine.

Player for player sure but in a cap world that simply doesn't exist. When factoring in contracts I take Larsson over Subban without thinking twice.

 

[JayE]

It's nice with a defenseman actually playing defense and hitting people.

Guys like Subban, Droughty and Karlsson are obviously vastly superior in the offensive game but Larsson is better in the defensive part of the game, simple as that.

Larsson played a more offensive game in SEL on the big ice but there is a huge difference between SEL and NHL. Somehow he has found (or being forced into) a more defensive role in the NHL and is thriving. Most probably he will score some more points in the future though because confidence is everything.

Larsson is having a fantasic development in Edmonton and now being mentioned together with stud players like Vlasic and Weber, huge upside. Larsson will probably be scary good within 3-5 years.

Regarding the other Swedish defenseman you have, Klefbom, I really hope that he will start utilizing his powerful slapshot (like a bomb) on a more constant basis, it's amazing and a great asset for the Oilers. I truly understand Larsson being amazed by his shot and persuading him into a more offensive role while covering his back, Larsson himself realized the offensive upside in Klefbom.

I'd agree with Karlsson and Subban, but Doughty is as elite as they come defensively. He's up there with Vlasic and Hjalmarsson as the best defensive defenseman in the league. I have Larsson just below their level (and he has every chance of being on their level in time).

 

[JayE]

While I suspect your opinion is shared mostly by Oilers fans. I'm sure Nashville fans and most neutral fans would agree with my opinion that Subban for Larsson straight up would be a giant steal for the Oilers.

I like Larsson. Good player, but I don't see the need to try and build him up into something he's not. He's a good stay at home guy like Hjalmarsson In Chicago. He's not a star D-man and that's fine.

The Oilers almost certainly couldn't afford McDavid, Draisaitl, and Subban in the long term without crippling their depth in the long run. One for one without factoring in contracts, Subban is a better overall player than Larsson right now, but Subban makes 2.5 times more than Larsson does.

 

[LaGu]

I mean, if we're talking trading Larsson in a vacuum, then I can understand trading him for any one of 3-4 players on any given team.

... and we have a winner. I was about to post the same. Edit: as several posters just have.

Team need, ca, etc etc are huge factors in today's NHL. Same as with Larssom for Hall: you just cannot look at this kind of move in a vacuum. The vacuum does not exist so maybe we should stop talking about it.

I think there are players I would trade Larsson for, but not very many because I would need to make sure that the move creates a big hole in the d core and/or that we will be in cap hell in a couple of years. The 2nd coming of the Oilers dynasty is just starting, let's not make it last only for a couple of years before having to blow up everything because we cannot fit any depth players under the cap.

 

[Fourier]

While I suspect your opinion is shared mostly by Oilers fans. I'm sure Nashville fans and most neutral fans would agree with my opinion that Subban for Larsson straight up would be a giant steal for the Oilers.

I like Larsson. Good player, but I don't see the need to try and build him up into something he's not. He's a good stay at home guy like Hjalmarsson In Chicago. He's not a star D-man and that's fine.

The reaction to Hall for Larsson was that this was a giant steal for NJ. How did that turn out.

No one is arguing that Larsson is a better defenseman than Subban. Though the reason you don't see these guys as stars is because even for defensemen points are what sell. I am saying that if you factor in role and cap I would not trade Larsson for Subban straight up.

Ask yourself this...would Chicago be better off right now moving Hjalmarsson for Subban? All they would have to do is get rid of guys like Anisimov and Krueger and replace them with guys making about $1M. It should be no problem winning with center depth consisting of Toews, Kerro, Schmaltz and Desjardins. But even then they would still be over the cap so three of their defensemen are probably on contracts of $1M or less.

 

[McShogun99]

Player for player sure but in a cap world that simply doesn't exist. When factoring in contracts I take Larsson over Subban without thinking twice.

Yep, contract and age.