Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part XL

[BrooklynCapsFan]

The main obstacle in keeping Green is lack of trust from the coaching staff. I don't know how either side finds common ground to make it work beyond this season if Green is deemed to simply be a glorified role player. No matter what anyone says that usage is probably not going to wind up leading to him staying. He needs to be used roughly equal to Carlson & Niskanen if it's going to be a situation that can continue and for that to happen they also need Better Than Hillen at 3LD.

Pretty much. With a different coaching staff, Green is making a strong case for an extension. With this group, it just can't be justified.

I'm not a fancystats whiz, so someone correct me if I'm interpreting these wrong, but Green has the 14th lowest quality of competition among dmen who have played 30 games. He's got the 7th highest offensive zone start % among the same group. That is extreme icetime management.

 

[ChibiPooky]

I think it's precisely because of this coaching staff and their deployment of Green that he's playing so well. If he were taking the tough matchups and heavy ice time, I'd wager his production isn't close to what it is now and he's likely injured or showing significant wear and tear.

 

[KevinM]

I think it's precisely because of this coaching staff and their deployment of Green that he's playing so well. If he were taking the tough matchups and heavy ice time, I'd wager his production isn't close to what it is now and he's likely injured or showing significant wear and tear.

Agreed, Trotz is definitely getting the most out of the defense in my mind if I ignore the scratching of Schmidt for seemingly no reason.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I think it's precisely because of this coaching staff and their deployment of Green that he's playing so well. If he were taking the tough matchups and heavy ice time, I'd wager his production isn't close to what it is now and he's likely injured or showing significant wear and tear.

Agreed. His stats are elite right now. Unfortunately we won't be able to pay him as such. And I guarantee you he'll be missed.

 

[ChibiPooky]

Agreed, Trotz is definitely getting the most out of the defense in my mind if I ignore the scratching of Schmidt for seemingly no reason.

Schmidt is injured.

 

[txpd]

I think it's precisely because of this coaching staff and their deployment of Green that he's playing so well. If he were taking the tough matchups and heavy ice time, I'd wager his production isn't close to what it is now and he's likely injured or showing significant wear and tear.

they use Green in attack mode. which is how you should use him. I'd imagine none of these defenseman would be as effective in trotz style of game having to play 26-28 minutes as opposed to 20-23.

most players produce best when used to their best ability. how many nhl defensemen can put up points like he can? 8? 10? right now he is 4th in points per game.

 

[Capitlols]

Schmidt is injured.

Yes, but he did scratch Schmidt at one point for Hillen.

 

[BobRouse]

Pretty much. With a different coaching staff, Green is making a strong case for an extension. With this group, it just can't be justified.

I'm not a fancystats whiz, so someone correct me if I'm interpreting these wrong, but Green has the 14th lowest quality of competition among dmen who have played 30 games. He's got the 7th highest offensive zone start % among the same group. That is extreme icetime management.

http://www.japersrink.com/2015/1/26/7876891/mike-green-and-playing-with-the-lead

Green appears to have a bit of an advantage in terms of zone starts, but the difference isn't as big as it looks; it's not enough to explain the substantial advantage Green has in CA/60 (and that zone start advantage sure isn't doing anything to help Jack Hillen out). Green has 13 more offensive-zone starts than defensive-zone starts in the 30 games he played in which the Caps had the lead at some point; that's one more OZ start every three games. Brooks Orpik and John Carlson are -5 and -6 in zone starts, respectively, each in 35 games. Every seven games they take one more DZ start than OZ start. Zone starts are not moving the needle here (if they ever do).

Green is the best possession defenseman the team has, and keeping the puck away from the other team is obviously a good way to protect a lead. Green does benefit from some easier assignments than the other defenders, but he's been a great possession player for his entire career so there's no reason to think he's just living off of easy assignments.

 

[Capitlols]

I get the support for Green, but the reality is we have four dmen locked for at least two more years. Two with NTC and two that'll have to be extended again. We have glaring needs up front and his prior history is just not reassuring.

I'd give him a 1-year deal if he's willing(doubt it), otherwise it's hard to swallow locking him up. The other issue is for me is we would have so much money tied up on defense, yet we'd still not have an elite #1 guy.

 

[Langway]

I think it's precisely because of this coaching staff and their deployment of Green that he's playing so well. If he were taking the tough matchups and heavy ice time, I'd wager his production isn't close to what it is now and he's likely injured or showing significant wear and tear.

That's the argument anyway. They could still play him more and not match him up on anyone in particular. If the argument against high TOI is lack of durability then it's not very persuasive.

Interesting: Green's season-high TOI this season was Sunday vs. STL at 23:24. They were playing from behind a lot, though.

They probably can't lean on the third pair equally because of Hillen but if they wanted to they could rotate him into the top 4 to a greater extent. I just can't see Trotz pounding the table to keep a guy that must be managed so closely. He loves low maintenance. It's why Beagle gets top-line opportunities and the rookies haven't really developed very much.

 

[trick9]

I get the support for Green, but the reality is we have four dmen locked for at least two more years. Two with NTC and two that'll have to be extended again. We have glaring needs up front and his prior history is just not reassuring.

I'd give him a 1-year deal if he's willing(doubt it), otherwise it's hard to swallow locking him up. The other issue is for me is we would have so much money tied up on defense, yet we'd still not have an elite #1 guy.

Carlson has been elite #1 guy this season. He's also just turned 25 and has shown nothing to suggest that he's going to go downhill.

That's the argument anyway. They could still play him more and not match him up on anyone in particular. If the argument against high TOI is lack of durability then it's not very persuasive.

Interesting: Green's season-high TOI this season was Sunday vs. STL at 23:24. They were playing from behind a lot, though.

They probably can't lean on the third pair equally because of Hillen but if they wanted to they could rotate him into the top 4 to a greater extent. I just can't see Trotz pounding the table to keep a guy that must be managed so closely. He loves low maintenance. It's why Beagle gets top-line opportunities and the rookies haven't really developed very much.

6:31 on the PP.

He did play alot late in the game too though (5:54 in the last 10:13).

 

[Atlas]

Ray Bourque was an elite #1 guy. No one on our team approaches elite #1 guy.

Green is pretty good at skating the puck up the ice. That, and his offense on the Power Play will be missed. Assuming Mac lands long-term assets for Green I think it's clearly in our best interest to trade him.

 

[Capitlols]

Carlson has been elite #1 guy this season. He's also just turned 25 and has shown nothing to suggest that he's going to go downhill.

He's not elite. He's not someone that'll shutdown opposing top lines on a consistent basis, especially not in the playoffs.

Still young and developing, but he's not there yet. Point being though, it's hard for me to see so much $ tied up to the defense if we still won't have a bonafide #1D.

 

[trick9]

He's not elite. He's not someone that'll shutdown opposing top lines on a consistent basis, especially not in the playoffs.

Still young and developing, but he's not there yet. Point being though, it's hard for me to see so much $ tied up to the defense if we still won't have a bonafide #1D.

With that description there are at most 5 'bonafide #1D's' in the whole league. And all of them have elite partners (apart from Doughty but his most frequent linemates are still Muzzin, Kopitar and Carter).

I'll rather have the guy that can actually produce something offensively too whilst facing top competition. That while not requiring another great top-pairing defender (Josi, Seabrook, Brodie, Bouwmeester, Brodin) next to him. Carlson also has the best +/- in the team so it's not like he's out of his league defensively against top competition out there.

 

[Capitlols]

With that description there are at most 5 'bonafide #1D's' in the whole league. And all of them have elite partners (apart from Doughty but his most frequent linemates are still Muzzin, Kopitar and Carter).

I'll rather have the guy that can actually produce something offensively too whilst facing top competition. That while not requiring another great top-pairing defender (Josi, Seabrook, Brodie, Bouwmeester, Brodin) next to him.

Right now I consider guys like Chara, Suter, Doughty, Keith, Seabrook, Weber, McDonagh, Giordano, Pietrangelo to name a few. Carlson had Alzner for the better part of the last few years and Orpik now, he's not been with Mickey Mouses either.

You really think those guys require a great partner? By themselves they can carry a pairing, can't say that about Carlson, yet.

Difference in opinion I presume, but no way I consider Carlson among that group and he's not an upper tier #1D. Again point being, if they're going to tie up significant money to the D and they don't have an upper tier guy it'll be stupid.

 

[Hivemind]

Carlson has taken a significant step forward this season (playoff Carlson seemed to show up in the regular season this year), and looks like a legitimate top pairing defender, rather than simply the best guy for the job on a flawed blueline. That being said, I still don't think our top pairing stacks up very well when compared to the top pairings on most contenders.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Right now I consider guys like Chara, Suter, Doughty, Keith, Seabrook, Weber, McDonagh, Giordano, Pietrangelo to name a few. Carlson had Alzner for the better part of the last few years and Orpik now, he's not been with Mickey Mouses either.

Your really think those guys require a great partner? By themselves they can carry a pairing, can't say that about Carlson, yet.

Difference in opinion I presume, but now way I consider Carlson among that group and he's not an upper tier #1D. Again point being, if they're going to tie up significant money to the D and they don't have an upper tier guy it'll be stupid.

I like Carlson over Keith and a 40 year old Chara. I also think Josi, EJ, OEL, Shattenkirk, Subban, Pietrangelo and a couple I'm probably forgetting belong on that top tier.

The giant shut down dman who does everything is a dying dream. There was Pronger, then Chara and Weber. Now Doughty. And that's basically it.

 

[Raikkonen]

We all hope Carlson will grow into his #1 role. So will his salary. Is it the same season Orpik better retire?

 

[Govechkin]

I think everyone (should) agree(s) that Mike Green is a very very good offensive defenseman and is probably number one on the list for many teams heading towards the TDL. So we expect/hope we get a huge return for him if we move him soon...

But...

Mike Green is on the roster, playing well, and would have nearly irreplaceable offensive value for a playoff run, which I assume this team will be ready to make...

If...

we make a move upfront that strenthens our current 2nd line or 1RW and gives us the offense we need...

Which requires...

A freeing up of cap space to get someone of that caliber, which means someone(s) is heading out, leading to a short list of players that could/should be moved and wouldn't tear apart the future or send a bad message to the lockerroom... now who those are I can't speculate...


Side note, I think Carlson will be our leader on D for years to come, and we seem to have a potential logjam of players on D, so something's gotta give (cause hell no to paying all that money to Green again and just have a ton of our cap going to semi-redundant defensemen...

 

[Capitlols]

I like Carlson over Keith and a 40 year old Chara. I also think Josi, EJ, OEL, Shattenkirk, Subban, Pietrangelo and a couple I'm probably forgetting belong on that top tier.

The giant shut down dman who does everything is a dying dream. There was Pronger, then Chara and Weber. Now Doughty. And that's basically it.

Really? I can understand Chara at this point, but I don't see him being close to Keith. Yeah just named a few, could make a very good case for the guys you noted.

I get that, but I don't find Carlson to be a particularly stout #1 guy. Certainly he has the potential, but not there yet. If they extend Green, I just can't stomach a $25M D corp with no elite #1.

 

[BobRouse]

I like Carlson over Keith and a 40 year old Chara. I also think Josi, EJ, OEL, Shattenkirk, Subban, Pietrangelo and a couple I'm probably forgetting belong on that top tier.

The giant shut down dman who does everything is a dying dream. There was Pronger, then Chara and Weber. Now Doughty. And that's basically it.

Yeah if thats the standard for a "true #1" then only a couple teams have those.

Carlson definitely is in the category of those guys you mention. I'd probably put Subban a slight tier above but most, including Carlson, are #1 Dmen.

 

[Raikkonen]

Btw, I think its possible that Alzner gets back with Carlson (after Orpik is demoted to 3rd pair). If both Carlzner progress they are the allround top pair, for years. That has to be a plan.

Then Niskanen gets Orlov or some new candidate (if Orlov can't get there) to form adequate 2nd pair.

Such a plan is good because you don't need to invest much in defense for the long period of time. Just maintain competent 3rd pair and you're good.

No need of 52 really. Easy to get another body at any time.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Really? I can understand Chara at this point, but I don't see him being close to Keith. Yeah just named a few, could make a very good case for the guys you noted.

I get that, but I don't find Carlson to be a particularly stout #1 guy. Certainly he has the potential, but not there yet. If they extend Green, I just can't stomach a $25M D corp with no elite #1.

I've never been terribly impressed with Keith and I still think that Seabrook is the best dman on that team. Keith is basically Wideman to me.

 

[trick9]

Right now I consider guys like Chara, Suter, Doughty, Keith, Seabrook, Weber, McDonagh, Giordano, Pietrangelo to name a few. Carlson had Alzner for the better part of the last few years and Orpik now, he's not been with Mickey Mouses either.

You really think those guys require a great partner? By themselves they can carry a pairing, can't say that about Carlson, yet.

Difference in opinion I presume, but no way I consider Carlson among that group and he's not an upper tier #1D. Again point being, if they're going to tie up significant money to the D and they don't have an upper tier guy it'll be stupid.

In what world has Carlson not proven to be able to carry a pairing and Seabrook has? The guy has played with Duncan Keith for most of his career and right now Hjalmarsson is better than him despite playing with Oduya rather than Keith.

I'd take Carlson over most of those guys, especially if we are still discussing this season. Pietrangelo lives off of some reputation that big, well-skating D's are elite #1D's. Even when he was at his best he was never considered elite shutdown D, but rather offensive guy with great size. Chara has declined alot since his glory days and he's no longer even on the top-15 (in my opinion). I don't think i even need to argue over Seabrook, he's not even the 2nd best D on the 'hawks. That leaves just about the number of guys i've mentioned, and you could cut Suter too for this season. His ES GA/60 is pretty terrible 2.74 (Carlson 2.22) and that while facing easier competition and providing far less offense.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Speaking of the Hawks, what kind of money is Oduya looking at this offseason?