Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXV -- 2017-18 Training Camp/Preseason Edition

[Hivemind]

3/4 of the 4 best young prospects actually competing for a spot on the team MADE THE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER. And the only reason the fourth guy (Bowey) didn't make the team was because of a numbers crunch. And he'll be up with the big club soon.

I just...I don't understand what else you want.

How exactly do they get Bowey up? They have a 23-man roster and $29k in cap space. Bowey makes $703k. In order to send down Ness ($613k) and call up Bowey, they would have to bank that $29k almost all season long just to have enough cap space to get Bowey up (not "soon"). The only real options they have to call Bowey up are to either wait for an LTIR exception or send down Chorney. If they're waiting for LTIR exemption, it's obviously not really having Bowey on the team. If their plan is to send down Chorney, then they should have done it already instead of these silly games.

Further still, these roster decisions compound their cap management issues further. Instead of hoarding their nuts and protecting as many waiver-eligible players as possible, they should have been willing to expose Ness/Chorney/Graovac or whoever is on the bottom of the pecking list to waivers with the goal of creating available cap space. Banking cap space is far more valuable than hoarding AHL/NHL tweeners like Ness. That way they don't have to play these cap games later on when it comes to calling up players like Bowey or Stephenson that make above the league minimum. Further still, if they can stay healthy (like they have the past two years), it can mean actually having the cap space to add a decent player at the deadline.

 

[twabby]

I still think the team is going to be good in the regular season. Their top 6 is strong (except maybe at 2RW), their top defensive pairing is excellent, and Holtby is a top 3 goalie in the league. Their depth is a huge concern but it can be sheltered and it’s not like many teams have great depth either.

The problem is they have to figure out a way to get more out of their depth during the postseason, something Trotz has been unable to do. This is on top of the lack of tactical game planning and adjustments Trotz has had in the past 3 postseasons. I don’t think playing low-ceiling vets like Chorney and even Orpik does anything for this team when we know they aren’t very good playoff performers. In a vacuum it isn’t a big deal, but after years of choosing experience over youth do we really believe Trotz is going to play his best players come April? If Djoos or Bowey serve up one pizza after otherwise playing well is Trotz really going to play them over Chorney who is supposedly “safe”? I doubt it.

 

[HeyMattyB]

How exactly do they get Bowey up? They have a 23-man roster and $29k in cap space. Bowey makes $703k. In order to send down Ness ($613k) and call up Bowey, they would have to bank that $29k almost all season long just to have enough cap space to get Bowey up (not "soon").

I don't expect both Graovac AND Smith-Pelly AND Walker to remain on the roster once Wilson comes back from his four-game suspension. The Caps are currently carrying 14 forwards, plus the suspended Wilson (whose salary still counts against the cap).

Wilson comes back (salary cap stays the same), either Graovac or DSP gets waived (preferably the latter; DSP seemed really unimpressive to me--and I was ROOTING for his success) to keep the roster at 14 forwards (along with Walker). Waive DSP + Ness, get Wilson back into the lineup, and bring Bowey up four games into the season. I am definitely NOT some salary-cap master, so I'm not going to act like this is some bulletproof, cosmic mind-flaying theory. But, those numbers are right, right? And that seems like a perfectly rational/reasonable potential plan of action for a team entering the season with a middle-six RW suspended?

 

[Carlzner]

Some Caps stuff in the new 30 thoughts.

21. It’s difficult to get perfect context on quotes when you aren’t in-person. It’s been interesting reading and watching what’s been coming out of Washington. The Capitals were rocked by last season’s loss to Pittsburgh, the pain is still there even as coach Barry Trotz tries to choke it out of the organization.
I get it. It took me 11 months to come to grips with my own failure in Rio, and a good friend in the business told me I “sucked” last season because I couldn’t let it go. T.J. Oshie was excellent at the media tour last month in New York, saying he loves the journey and the challenge; what happened in April wasn’t going to change that.

“I’m not the only one who said it, but I told (GM Brian MacLellan) he was the most important guy to bring back,” defenceman Brooks Orpik said Tuesday. “That attitude, the energy he brings to a room. There’s nothing phoney about him, the positive he brings. You need that in an 82-game season. T.J. wanted to stay, but he didn’t think it was possible.”


22. Capitals fans are down on their team, but I remember something Mark Messier said during one of his studio appearances: “In the cap world, every team has a fatal flaw. Can you overcome it?” Washington is still a threat.
“Maybe that’s what this group needs,” Orpik said. “Less expectation. We put a lot of pressure on ourselves, and it worked against us. It might be good for this group, a little different path. I’ve been here three years … others have been here a lot longer than I have, (the loss) affected everyone differently. Barry really had to right the ship. Last year stung a lot more. Who we lost to, and when you know as a group it was your best or most realistic shot at winning. We were making mistakes we hadn’t made all season long, it was out of character.”
Orpik was not concerned with the results in exhibition play. “No one took it easy. We had a hard camp, with the amount of skating we did. I think we’re ready.”

23. Orpik did not want to go into it, but word is the Capitals may de-emphasize the importance of the Presidents’ Trophy in favour of more process-oriented goals. He did say he thinks new blood will help. Last year’s team was basically set the date everyone showed up. This one has pushing for spots. “I was skating with Evgeny Kuznetsov, talking about Pittsburgh. How they’ve found two young guys you’ve never heard of who play great and win. Maybe that’s what we need. Young guys who give you energy. We’re excited about what we have coming.” Jakub Vrana, come on down.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think Trotz will play the guys playing best at the time. If you’re serving pizzas, you’re not lineup worthy IMO.

 

[Hivemind]

I don't expect both Graovac AND Smith-Pelly AND Walker to remain on the roster once Wilson comes back from his four-game suspension. The Caps are currently carrying 14 forwards, plus the suspended Wilson (whose salary still counts against the cap).

Wilson comes back (salary cap stays the same), either Graovac or DSP gets waived (preferably the latter; DSP seemed really unimpressive to me--and I was ROOTING for his success) to keep the roster at 14 forwards (along with Walker). Waive DSP + Ness, get Wilson back into the lineup, and bring Bowey up four games into the season. I am definitely NOT some salary-cap master, so I'm not going to act like this is some bulletproof, cosmic mind-flaying theory. But, those numbers are right, right? And that seems like a perfectly rational/reasonable potential plan of action for a team entering the season with a middle-six RW suspended?

They're listed at 15 forwards because Stephenson is still listed. After he clears waivers they'll be at 14 forwards (13 not counting the suspended Wilson). If they send one down after Wilson comes back to bring their total to 13 forwards (reasonable), the only forward that would clear enough cap space for Bowey would be Vrana. Otherwise each of Chiasson/DSP/Walker/Graovac make $660k or less compared to Bowey's 713k. Maybe there's some games they can play with performance bonus overages to make the money work, but as of now it looks to me they would have to send down two players to make room for Bowey. Presumably that's Ness AND a forward.

If they're comfortable shrinking the total roster under 23 players to fit Bowey, they should be comfortable shrinking the roster under 23 to start the year. That's what I would prefer to see, both to get Bowey in the line-up sooner and to bank more cap space. Wasting roster spots and cap space on dime-a-dozen replacement-level players isn't going to help this team.

 

[HeyMattyB]

So what you're saying is, it's perfectly reasonable that the Caps could play four games with Wilson suspended, then waive DSP/Ness to create room for Bowey after Wilson comes back.

Your main problem with that potential setup isn't that it leaves the roster with only 22 players (1 spare forward, 1 spare defenseman), but that it would happen four games into the season instead of on opening night. Because it potentially robs Bowey of four games of NHL experience, and robs the organization of four games' worth of salary cap space.

EDIT: Also, if Stephenson has been placed on waivers, but he's still currently on the roster, does his salary still count against the cap until he clears and is demoted? If that's the case, wouldn't waiving Stephenson and Ness create more than enough room for Bowey even WITH two spare forwards? Again, I am NOT a salary-cap master, and I'm not going to pretend I know all of the intricate details.

 

[um]

It's a 4 meaningful game race for Walker, DSP, Chiasson, and Graovac, I'm not against that at all, in fact Wilson's suspension may end up helping us in the long run.

Ness/Chorney over Bowey is something is something I don't agree with, but I hope they're thinking is they didn't want 2 rookies on the third pairing to start so they will give Djoos time with Chorney and then they will bring up Bowey when the pairings change or when Chorney/Ness disappoint. But if we have a Ness-Chorney pairing than that really sucks and is just so damn shortsighted.

 

[RandyHolt]

3/4 of the 4 best young prospects actually competing for a spot on the team MADE THE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER. And the only reason the fourth guy (Bowey) didn't make the team was because of a numbers crunch. And he'll be up with the big club soon.

I just...I don't understand what else you want.

It's not complicated.

For them to play. Barry to test them like real players, not shelter them. Chorney to not be in the way, maybe Ness too. You like Chiasson? I would rather see the best Hershey has to offer instead. Isn't Djoos projected to be scratched? Vrana will likely get no PP time and fear he will be in the doghouse since the vets will be in who cares mode for 2 months, and Barry will need a scapegoat. Bowey should be in the bigs but will now be waiting for the call. Isn't that numbers crunch partly Barry's fault for wanting fringe vets in game 1?

 

[Hivemind]

So what you're saying is, it's perfectly reasonable that the Caps could play four games with Wilson suspended, then waive DSP/Ness to create room for Bowey after Wilson comes back.

Your main problem with that potential setup isn't that it leaves the roster with only 22 players (1 spare forward, 1 spare defenseman), but that it would happen four games into the season instead of on opening night. Because it potentially robs Bowey of four games of NHL experience, and robs the organization of four games' worth of salary cap space.

My main gripe is that the Capitals have valued replacement-level players over cap space AND younger/higher upside players. I'd much rather them run with a 21 or 22 player roster filled with their best bets to be contributors in April than jam pack as many journeymen as they can fit.

EDIT: Also, if Stephenson has been placed on waivers, but he's still currently on the roster, does his salary still count against the cap until he clears and is demoted? If that's the case, wouldn't waiving Stephenson and Ness create more than enough room for Bowey even WITH two spare forwards? Again, I am NOT a salary-cap master, and I'm not going to pretend I know all of the intricate details.

Right now Stephenson is still on the roster and his salary counts. They are currently over the salary cap as a result. Demoting Stephenson leaves them with $29k in cap space, not enough to swap Ness for Bowey.

 

[HeyMattyB]

Thanks for clearing up the $$$ numbers.

 

[HeyMattyB]

You like Chiasson? I would rather see the best Hershey has to offer instead

The best bottom-six RW prospect that Hershey has to offer is...Riley Barber. (Seriously, Hershey's RW depth after Barber is composed of AHL lifers Peluso, Mitchell, and Simpson.) Barber couldn't even manage to impress playing against lesser competition during the pre-season. Barber was so outplayed/unimpressive in the pre-season that the Caps finally signed the bargain-bin dumpster-dive vet they had originally brought in on a PTO to challenge the RWs competing for a roster spot. Barber, who has always been a tweener (even on his best days), was given another chance to prove his worth and failed again--as he's failed with his previous chances. Yet you seem to think that if he's brought up and put into a position he failed to earn, he'll suddenly perform BETTER than he did?

It's not complicated.

You're right. Your position isn't complicated. It's just completely unreasonable!

 

[Langway]

IMO the problem is less the personnel decisions than the values that inform them and their overall approach. It's primarily about risk avoidance and that's almost the extent of their developmental priorities. Areas like creativity, higher level hockey IQ and the like don't get nearly enough scrutiny as they should since they have relatively high existing skill sets for it to be passable when they work somewhat hard and have the puck often. The standard has to be higher, esp. when it comes to passing, timing and cohesion. It's on the leaders to set that tone but the coaching staff seems to overlook some areas in adherence to defensive structure over everything else. It only makes D depth questions that much more crucial.

The further they get away from an up-tempo possession game this season--and Ness/Chorney is a terrible start in that regard--the more likely they're just relying on goaltending and special teams to mask weaknesses that need to be more seriously addressed. I think we know Trotz's answer will be to lock it down even further but that's unlikely the mental reset they need. Trying to lock it down almost seems to be happening off the bat based on their perception of how energetic other teams will be early on and perhaps how flat they may be given their preseason. It's easy to say down the line they'll turn to young players and give opportunity but who knows what sort of dynamics they'll be up against. As the season progresses things have a tendency to fall into typical routines and for Trotz that doesn't involve transitioning to unproven players if it can be avoided. Ness/Chorney will not last long in this league but IMO he'll give them every opportunity early on. Even if they fail I wouldn't rule out the likes of Siegenthaler and Lewington getting the serious opportunities among the young D rather than riskier, more skilled options.

The issue is less not serving youth than only deeming particular skill sets essential with little willingness for patience or a coherent standard beyond defense and work ethic. Shouldn't there be a level of play desired beyond that in an applied sense? There's a lot of offensive instability in how they play that could get exposed by either a weakened possession game or regressing shooting percentages. So in many ways Trotz has a lot more to be concerned about than some rookies and the bigger picture and yet I'm not sure he's even locked into the bigger picture at all. He seems dug in and that may be all he's got, particularly if there's any sort of pressure building up. It's who he is...but IMO the league isn't going that way.

 

[Ridley Simon]

How exactly do they get Bowey up? They have a 23-man roster and $29k in cap space. Bowey makes $703k. In order to send down Ness ($613k) and call up Bowey, they would have to bank that $29k almost all season long just to have enough cap space to get Bowey up (not "soon"). The only real options they have to call Bowey up are to either wait for an LTIR exception or send down Chorney. If they're waiting for LTIR exemption, it's obviously not really having Bowey on the team. If their plan is to send down Chorney, then they should have done it already instead of these silly games.

Further still, these roster decisions compound their cap management issues further. Instead of hoarding their nuts and protecting as many waiver-eligible players as possible, they should have been willing to expose Ness/Chorney/Graovac or whoever is on the bottom of the pecking list to waivers with the goal of creating available cap space. Banking cap space is far more valuable than hoarding AHL/NHL tweeners like Ness. That way they don't have to play these cap games later on when it comes to calling up players like Bowey or Stephenson that make above the league minimum. Further still, if they can stay healthy (like they have the past two years), it can mean actually having the cap space to add a decent player at the deadline.

They can easily go to a 22 man roster once Wilson is back from suspension. I mean, that seems to be obviously the plan here. Send down Ness and a forward, bring up Bowey and insert Wilson.

They can't go 22 now as its really 21 with Wilson out. They can't keep Bowey at 23 players due to the cap issues.

Seems pretty straightforward to me

 

[Hivemind]

They can easily go 22 man now, just like they can easily go 21 man later. I have very little issue with them rolling only 12 forwards deep for most games. If they're about to go on a road swing for a week, maybe they roll with an extra forward then. But for most of the season operating with only 12 forwards doesn't really cost them much at all. If someone gets hurt, then you call up your depth from the AHL. If someone gets hurt in the pre-game warm-ups, then roll 11F and 7D for one night. They were running 11F, 7D in the playoffs, why not for a regular season game here and there?

 

[Ridley Simon]

I still think the team is going to be good in the regular season. Their top 6 is strong (except maybe at 2RW), their top defensive pairing is excellent, and Holtby is a top 3 goalie in the league. Their depth is a huge concern but it can be sheltered and it’s not like many teams have great depth either.

The problem is they have to figure out a way to get more out of their depth during the postseason, something Trotz has been unable to do. This is on top of the lack of tactical game planning and adjustments Trotz has had in the past 3 postseasons. I don’t think playing low-ceiling vets like Chorney and even Orpik does anything for this team when we know they aren’t very good playoff performers. In a vacuum it isn’t a big deal, but after years of choosing experience over youth do we really believe Trotz is going to play his best players come April? If Djoos or Bowey serve up one pizza after otherwise playing well is Trotz really going to play them over Chorney who is supposedly “safe”? I doubt it.

Twabby -- you need to get an understanding of something I think. Trotz is ONLY coaching for this year. These first 20 games. He can't afford -- in his mind -- youthful mistakes on top of "gelling" issues with all the new line ups, on top of the malaise from last 2 yes playoff failures. He just cannot. Least IMO. So he's doing all he can to win IMMEDIATELY. Not games 20, 30, or 40 -- much less the playoffs.

Everything we are seeing/hearing behind the scenes screams it.
-last year of contract -- total lame duck
-his top, well sought after, Assitant was given a raise and Title to stay
-GMBM is obviously not "going for it this year", least not yet

If you think he's at all thinking about his future beyond the first 20 games, you aren't getting it.

Maybe he shouldn't be coaching this tea, right now. Valid concern. But he's earned the right time do so, they may need to his steady hand with all the "hangover" talk versus a guy getting his feet wet for the first time, and Ted never fires anyone off season. We are exactly where we should be based upon all the tea leaves, IMO.. And that includes a fully healthy roster -- no LTIR space -- and Wilson out of the blue suspension.

 

[Ridley Simon]

My main gripe is that the Capitals have valued replacement-level players over cap space AND younger/higher upside players. I'd much rather them run with a 21 or 22 player roster filled with their best bets to be contributors in April than jam pack as many journeymen as they can fit.


Right now Stephenson is still on the roster and his salary counts. They are currently over the salary cap as a result. Demoting Stephenson leaves them with $29k in cap space, not enough to swap Ness for Bowey.

Read my post about Trotz.

And sure, you see it as 4 wasted games, maybe they see it as 4 real games/practices to vet which waiver eligible forward they might want to possibly lose for the next 78.

 

[Ridley Simon]

They can easily go 22 man now, just like they can easily go 21 man later. I have very little issue with them rolling only 12 forwards deep for most games. If they're about to go on a road swing for a week, maybe they roll with an extra forward then. But for most of the season operating with only 12 forwards doesn't really cost them much at all. If someone gets hurt, then you call up your depth from the AHL. If someone gets hurt in the pre-game warm-ups, then roll 11F and 7D for one night. They were running 11F, 7D in the playoffs, why not for a regular season game here and there?

And they very well still might after game 1 (or even before game 1, tomorrow). Right?

 

[Hivemind]

Just because there's a rationale behind Trotz being shortsighted doesn't mean I have to agree with it. I think it 's a mistake for them to be so short-sighted, regardless of whether or not Trotz is playing for his job.

 

[twabby]

Twabby -- you need to get an understanding of something I think. Trotz is ONLY coaching for this year. These first 20 games. He can't afford -- in his mind -- youthful mistakes on top of "gelling" issues with all the new line ups, on top of the malaise from last 2 yes playoff failures. He just cannot. Least IMO. So he's doing all he can to win IMMEDIATELY. Not games 20, 30, or 40 -- much less the playoffs.

Everything we are seeing/hearing behind the scenes screams it.
-last year of contract -- total lame duck
-his top, well sought after, Assitant was given a raise and Title to stay
-GMBM is obviously not "going for it this year", least not yet

If you think he's at all thinking about his future beyond the first 20 games, you aren't getting it.

Maybe he shouldn't be coaching this tea, right now. Valid concern. But he's earned the right time do so, they may need to his steady hand with all the "hangover" talk versus a guy getting his feet wet for the first time, and Ted never fires anyone off season. We are exactly where we should be based upon all the tea leaves, IMO.. And that includes a fully healthy roster -- no LTIR space -- and Wilson out of the blue suspension.

I get what you’re saying re: Trotz coaching for his job but he also should be looking to shed his legacy of playoff failures, which IMO consists of playing the youth and adopting a more aggressive and patient approach with the youth as Langway pointed out very nicely. It seems like he’s just doing more of the same.

Besides, even if he gets fired mid-season how long would he realistically be out of a job? He’s well-respected around the league even if he does have some major warts. Despite more playoff failures he’s a b2b Presidents Trophy winning coach along with winning a Jack Adams. He’d have a job by next season almost surely.

 

[Hivemind]

He'd have a job within the week if he wanted it. Just like Boudreau after he was fired. No guarantee he wouldn't take the rest of the season off to look for the right job, but someone would be willing to snap him up right away if he's fired.

That being said, I still think his time in Washington has run out and I wish they hadn't entered this bizarre lame duck season with him.

 

[RandyHolt]

...
You're right. Your position isn't complicated. It's just completely unreasonable!

Nice rebuttal. I counter with I simply don't want vets taking spots from kids. It lines up Barry nicely to have yet another 2nd round exit. I want to see the kids tested right now, but even more, see HIM tested in showing he knows how to get the most out of them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Hfboards.....where inexperienced youth gets the nod over vets who apparently outplayed them in camp. Performance and wins be damned!

At least Rids and a few others get what Trotz and company are doing early on.

I believe it’s pure fantasy to expect a few rookies to help them “shed their playoff failure”. These aren’t prized bluechip stars in the making here.

 

[Hivemind]

If you think Ness and Chorney outplayed Bowey in camp....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If you think Ness and Chorney outplayed Bowey in camp....

That was a money move IMO. He’ll be here soon. I already said as much. Also pretty sure Barry is happy with good soldier Chorney as his 7th.