Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXIII

[Iceman]

Sorry to bust in but is Richie returning as 4C next year? Any chance giving him another year (+ off season)?

 

[txpd]

Agreed. I can't imagine the team will allow Beagle to be exposed to Las Vegas. I think he's one of the 7 forwards protected (unless the team adds someone this year that changes that).

Beagle is their lone bottom 6 staple. They won't allow him to leave

I dont think that if there is only one player chosen off the Caps roster that Beagle would be the guy, considering his age.

I consider one thing. The Caps have had several coaches with different styles and attitudes. Maybe the only thing they had in common is that they all loved Jay Beagle.
10 goals last season and 8 on 57 games this season. A top 5 face off guy that is money at crunch time. A great penalty killer. Trotz moves him up the lineup when the top guys get too cute for too long.

I'll take Beagle over Kruger all day

 

[txpd]

Sorry to bust in but is Richie returning as 4C next year? Any chance giving him another year (+ off season)?

in a word. no. he's gone. The Caps will keep Beagle and will try and get a 3C that can bring more production. Someone will grab Richards. As a 4C he would be fine

 

[Iceman]

in a word. no. he's gone. The Caps will keep Beagle and will try and get a 3C that can bring more production. Someone will grab Richards. As a 4C he would be fine

Thanks for info.

 

[twabby]

Sometimes I wonder if and why some Caps fans dont appreciate Jay Beagle. Beagle isnt as good as Kruger? Defensively? i just dont get that.

I appreciate Jay Beagle as a good penalty killer and a good 4th line center, but Kruger is better defensively IMO. The stats bear this out pretty clearly and having watched a lot of Blackhawks games because they are my brother's favorite team, the eye-test seems to match his stats below.

Here are Kruger's defensive zone starts the past 4 seasons: 45%, 51%, 52%, 58%.

Here are Beagle's: 38%, 31%, 34%, 37%.

Now, here are Kruger's relative possession rates (adjusted for score and zone starts): +3.94%, +0.38%, +2.41%, +2.48%.

Beagle's: -2.21%, -3.71%, +0.81%, -0.43%

If you don't care about possession, here are the GA/60 rates:

Kruger: 1.78, 2.00, 1.72, 1.93
Beagle: 2.03, 1.90, 2.24, 1.34

I wanted to bold that one because I was legitimately surprised at how low it was, especially compared to the prior seasons for Beagle, and I wouldn't expect that to continue.

So to summarize, Kruger is given tougher zone starts (the third most D zone starts in the entire NHL), performs better in terms of relative possession (on a team that was already better than the Capitals possession-wise except for this year), and gives up roughly the same number of goals except for this year which I believe to be an outlier.

Beagle is a good defensive player and maybe is even a little bit better offensively than Kruger, but Kruger is much better defensively IMO.

 

[Underpants2]

Caps need to shake this up. MaJo and Orlov should be moved at the very least.

Someone needs to be sacrificed for our latest postseason flop. These two are RFAs, they get my vote.

 

[txpd]

you know why there is a difference in zone starts. right? you are a brilliant hockey mind. Trotz uses Nicklas Backstrom as a shutdown matchup center depending on the matchup.

So, when the Caps are at home v the Islanders Backstrom gets that defensive zone start against Tavares. Same with Giroux.

In critical defensive zone face offs, Beagle gets the right wing face offs and Backstrom the left wing face offs because Beagle is right handed and Backstrom is left handed.

Its a team game. Trotz says consistantly that Backstrom is a Selke Trophy level center. That means that he thinks 19 is better than 83. It doesnt mean that Kruger is better than Beagle, however.

 

[Hivemind]

Kruger is better defensively than Beagle. That doesn't mean Beagle is bad.

 

[hb12xchamps]

2 separate deals involving Orlov and Mojo.

Johansson to Minny for one of their young D (as a baseline)

Orlov for a 3C or 3LW

 

[Langway]

Kruger is better defensively than Beagle. That doesn't mean Beagle is bad.

Nor does it mean that Kruger is what the third line needs...

Trade Johansson to WPG for the 22nd pick. Take Rubtsov. Trade the 26th pick for Hanzal.

 

[Hivemind]

Nor does it mean that Kruger is what the third line needs...

I never said it was. Twabby even said it was not. I'm just trying to bring some sanity to a conversation with people who apparently don't watch much western conference hockey and realize how Kruger is used and why he excels in his role.

 

[Underpants2]

2 separate deals involving Orlov and Mojo.

Johansson to Minny for one of their young D (as a baseline)

Orlov for a 3C or 3LW

MaJo plus for Brodin
Orlov plus for Eakin

Move or buyout Winnk.

If we could work out a deal with Minny for Dumba, would be willing to take a year of Vanek.

 

[txpd]

I never said it was. Twabby even said it was not. I'm just trying to bring some sanity to a conversation.

ah...sanity. roger that. if i dont agree with you, i am insane. sweet.

 

[twabby]

you know why there is a difference in zone starts. right? you are a brilliant hockey mind. Trotz uses Nicklas Backstrom as a shutdown matchup center depending on the matchup.

So, when the Caps are at home v the Islanders Backstrom gets that defensive zone start against Tavares. Same with Giroux.

In critical defensive zone face offs, Beagle gets the right wing face offs and Backstrom the left wing face offs because Beagle is right handed and Backstrom is left handed.

Its a team game. Trotz says consistantly that Backstrom is a Selke Trophy level center. That means that he thinks 19 is better than 83. It doesnt mean that Kruger is better than Beagle, however.

All you're saying is that there is a reason Beagle doesn't get as many defensive zone faceoffs. That doesn't show that he's better defensively. You have to provide some qualitative or quantitative proof that Beagle is better defensively, otherwise it's just an opinion with no substance behind it.

My point wasn't that since Kruger takes more defensive zone draws it makes him better defensively. It's that given that he takes more defensive zone draws, the fact that he STILL performs better in every major shot against metric seems to clearly indicate he is better defensively. Give Kruger similar zone start percentages as Beagle and his numbers would look even better.

And again, I appreciate Beagle as a good 4th liner and a good penalty killer. It's no knock against him, in fact I said I would rather just keep Beagle at his salary vs. acquiring Kruger at his salary, which is why the discussion came up in the first place.

 

[Langway]

I never said it was. Twabby even said it was not. I'm just trying to bring some sanity to a conversation with people who apparently don't watch much western conference hockey and realize how Kruger is used and why he excels in his role.

Gotcha. I didn't read far enough back.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Not saying that I agree with this article http://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2016/06/phrs-top-50-nhl-unrestricted-free-agents.html but there is some logic to it as the Caps approach the expansion draft next year. Signing Radulov to a 1 year contract and re-signing Chimera for a year would allow the organization to then protect Ovechkin, Kus, Bura, Backstrom, Beagle and Wilson and even to resign Oshie beforehand. All the other forwards will be UFAs excluding Latta and Galiev. The 3C is of course the ? in all of this. I'm being optimistic as I've already scratched MAJO from the team.

Ovechkin-Kuznestov-Radulov
Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie
Chimera-????????-Williams
Winnik-Beagle-Wilson

 

[Hivemind]

Radulov and Trotz together seems like a good idea, right?


Also the concept of ditching Johansson at all costs but bringing in Radulov is some amusing cognitive dissonance.

 

[RandyHolt]

I think BMac is going to swing for the fences (Backes), and fail.

Even a solid 3C on the free market is going to command top $$$, are we up for that cap hit the following years? Beagle can slot up, and Chandler Stephenson seems next up, sooner than later. Marcus can be a 3C, is going to get close to 5M and I expect is going no where; a pending RFA being moved seems rare. He's got that speed we say we need.

Chimera will likely stick around. We like the cheetah because he too has the speed we claim we covet. Seems dumb to let our 20G fast guy walk to find a different one. The D seems set. We have cap room, but not all that much.

So I am thinking we hear we like our team this summer after a tinker type move. The biggest move may be to build cap space, and go all in at the deadline.

 

[twabby]

I think BMac is going to swing for the fences (Backes), and fail.

Even a solid 3C on the free market is going to command top $$$, are we up for that cap hit the following years? Beagle can slot up, and Chandler Stephenson seems next up, sooner than later. Marcus can be a 3C, is going to get close to 5M and I expect is going no where; a pending RFA being moved seems rare. He's got that speed we say we need.

Chimera will likely stick around. We like the cheetah because he has the speed we claim we covet. Seems dumb to let our 20G fast guy walk to find a different one. The D seems set. We have cap room, but not all that much.

So I am thinking we hear we like our team this summer after a tinker type move. The biggest move may be to build cap space, and go all in at the deadline.

Chimera is the perfect example of being fast without playing fast. If he's willing to sign for 1 year and for cheap I'd consider keeping him as a 4LW (Winnik would need to go), but I'd imagine he'd get better offers elsewhere.

And while he did score 20, he scored 7 the year before and is only getting older. His possession statistics are amongst the worst on the team. I think BM is making the right move by seeing if everything else falls into place first before considering signing Chimera, given how tight they are to the cap.

 

[Hivemind]

Jason Chimera is probably the decision I've waffled on the most. He does bring speed, even strength depth, and has been a part of multiple highly effective lines during his tenure on the Caps. In his productive years, he provides huge amounts of value compared to his cap hit. He's one of the few Capitals to consistently show up in the post-season. In that regards, he certainly makes sense to bring back as a bottom six option.

On the other hand, he's no spring chicken. He's nearing the age where it could all fall apart. His productivity has not been consistent (it seems to oscillate between effective and subpar annually). He's not a particularly smart hockey player, and that can be an issue for a team that struggles with hockey sense. While he does kill penalties, his efficacy on PK is somewhat questionable. Most of all, he doesn't really make plays at speed. While he can forecheck effectively using his speed, his play with and without the puck tends not to create chances in open ice. He's more effective in a down-low cycle than otherwise.

Notionally, if the team is returning to a "heavy" identity, retaining Chimera makes sense. If the team is attempting to play more like Pittsburgh or Chicago, they should explore other options before committing to Chimera.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yet statistically last season he was quite comparable with Marcus Johansson.

Both played 74 games Vanek with 18 goals vs. MAJO's 17, both with 6 power play goals, MAJO with 29 assists while Vanek had 23.

Perhaps Minnesota is interested in replacing Vanek with a younger version. MAJO and Nate Schmidt for Jonas Brodin.

Alzner - Niskanen
Brodin - Carlson
Orpik - Orlov
Chorney

Obviously the big differences being Vanek is 32, made $6.5 last season, due to make $7.5 next.

Mojo is a bargain comparatively.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

MaJo plus for Brodin
Orlov plus for Eakin

Move or buyout Winnk.

If we could work out a deal with Minny for Dumba, would be willing to take a year of Vanek.

Seems unlikely they trade for someone big like Brodin when they won't have a spot for to protect him., but maybe Brodin for Orlov makes sense...with adjustments as needed.

Most likely course I think is sign Nielsen. Resign Mojo 2 years, resign Chimera 1.

If they hit an impasse with Mojo, move him for a Winger.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Jason Chimera is probably the decision I've waffled on the most. He does bring speed, even strength depth, and has been a part of multiple highly effective lines during his tenure on the Caps. In his productive years, he provides huge amounts of value compared to his cap hit. He's one of the few Capitals to consistently show up in the post-season. In that regards, he certainly makes sense to bring back as a bottom six option.

On the other hand, he's no spring chicken. He's nearing the age where it could all fall apart. His productivity has not been consistent (it seems to oscillate between effective and subpar annually). He's not a particularly smart hockey player, and that can be an issue for a team that struggles with hockey sense. While he does kill penalties, his efficacy on PK is somewhat questionable. Most of all, he doesn't really make plays at speed. While he can forecheck effectively using his speed, his play with and without the puck tends not to create chances in open ice. He's more effective in a down-low cycle than otherwise.

Notionally, if the team is returning to a "heavy" identity, retaining Chimera makes sense. If the team is attempting to play more like Pittsburgh or Chicago, they should explore other options before committing to Chimera.

A 1 year deal makes a lot of sense. He's loved in the room, still brings it, and wants to stay.

 

[Raikkonen]

Backes, Radulov, Nielsen, Hanzal, Rubtsov, Brodin...

Fasten your seat belts!

I mean, the end result is Stephenson!

 

[txpd]

Backes, Radulov, Nielsen, Hanzal, Rubtsov, Brodin...

Fasten your seat belts!

I mean, the end result is Stephenson!

MacLellan gave the impression that Stephanson would get games as a call up and they have no more planned for him than that. Nielson i can believe. His face off numbers are really good.