Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXIII

[Langway]

@mirtle: Unless Vegas is an above average revenue generator, expansion will likely have negative impact on NHL salary cap. HRR split will be 31 ways.

Good point by Mirtle here. Unless the CAD rebounds it's probably not going to rise next year. All the more reason they need to take a serious moment to reflect on just how valuable Johansson and Orlov are for next season and beyond.

 

[Raikkonen]

Alzner is loyal to a fault. GMBM could do this trick with him I guess.

Oshie... if there is a verbal agreement with Oshie and then he goes to the market... well, I don't like such person then.

I would pay additional 1M for the player who agreed to help the team this way. It will cost about 200k if it's a 5Y contract. Pretty fair to my eyes.

 

[Hivemind]

@mirtle: Unless Vegas is an above average revenue generator, expansion will likely have negative impact on NHL salary cap. HRR split will be 31 ways.

Good point by Mirtle here. Unless the CAD rebounds it's probably not going to rise next year. All the more reason they need to take a serious moment to reflect on just how valuable Johansson and Orlov are for next season and beyond.

Are the expansion fees counted towards HRR? I was under the impression they are, but that just might be me imagining something. If they are, that would provide a short-term shot in the arm in terms of HRR/the salary cap.

Alzner is loyal to a fault. GMBM could do this trick with him I guess.

Oshie... if there is a verbal agreement with Oshie and then he goes to the market... well, I don't like such person then.

I would pay additional 1M for the player who agreed to help the team this way. It will cost about 200k if it's a 5Y contract. Pretty fair to my eyes.

Alzner hasn't had the ability to test unrestricted free agency yet, nor has he had a ton of leverage in RFA discussions without offensive numbers. How do we know he's loyal to a fault?

Verbal agreements cut both ways. If I'm Alzner or Oshie's agent, I would do everything in my power to dissuade my client from making any verbal agreements without a contract. We saw McPhee back out of a supposed deal with Eric Belanger several years ago. More relevant would be injury potential. If they verbally agree in March, but the player gets hurt in April, the player is potentially left holding the bag without a valid contract.

Pretty sure agreeing to give a higher rate via verbal agreement than you would otherwise would be a violation of the CBA.

 

[Langway]

Are the expansion fees counted towards HRR? I was under the impression they are, but that just might be me imagining something. If they are, that would provide a short-term shot in the arm in terms of HRR/the salary cap.

Nope. The owners pocket all of it. That said, it's probably not so bad for the '17-18 cap as I initially was thinking. They probably calculate the following season's cap the same way they always do. At most that might mean more escrow being withheld or, if they are struggling, the following season being the more troublesome one.

Still...cheap young players, especially those that are expansion proof for next season, have maybe never been more valuable.

 

[RandyHolt]

I guess my digging into Niskanens numbers was because, I really thought he was breaking out offensively, and that is why he warranted a nice fat contract. Free agency frenzy pricing, aside. He gets a little PP time and does get tough assignments, but was on a presidents team in which you think all D would get gifted points.

Does his Corswick/60 show he is driving play and possession; again Alzner had more ES points than he did. Maybe a tribute to Alzner's progression, and bargain basementment, more than anything.

Corsi Relative looks flat, whatever that is.

 

[twabby]

Nail Yakupov is apparently being shopped for as cheap as a third round pick.

I wouldn't be disappointed if the Capitals pass on him, but I wouldn't be disappointed if they gambled on him either. I do understand there are character and defensive concerns, but he's in literally the worst possible situation right now.

 

[peterthegreat12]

If you are GMBM, are you talking to CHI about Kruger?

 

[dillyboy93]

Nail Yakupov is apparently being shopped for as cheap as a third round pick.

I wouldn't be disappointed if the Capitals pass on him, but I wouldn't be disappointed if they gambled on him either. I do understand there are character and defensive concerns, but he's in literally the worst possible situation right now.

I wouldn't mind taking a chance o him. He and Kuznetsov played together in the World Juniors no? I think I remember them doing really well together, plus he'd have a chance to play with Ovi

 

[twabby]

If you are GMBM, are you talking to CHI about Kruger?

I'm not really sure Washington is a fit. Kruger is a perfect 4C on a Cup contending team and Chicago heavily leaned on him for defensive zone matchups. That being said, he doesn't produce offensively and the Capitals already have a cheaper (albeit not as good) defensive 4C in Jay Beagle. I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with Kruger as a 3C because that pretty much goes back to the 2 scoring lines, 2 defensive lines paradigm which is proving to be less and less successful compared to having 3 scoring lines and 1 defensive line.

 

[Langway]

Had those not been available, there would have been more names on this list.

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe those teams would have stuck it out longer at least. They were a very convenient tool at the time.

As-is an Orpik buyout ($9M) would be the fourth-richest non-compliance buyout all-time: only Yashin ($17.6M), Semin ($14M) & Ribeiro ($11.6M) were larger. Milbury & Rutherford were both gone as GMs when the first two moves were made. Maloney didn't make it two years after buying out Ribeiro.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Circling back to previous posts, if Niskanen is a bargain at 5.75, at what price is he fairly paid? And, over paid for the sake of discussion.

Is he worth every penny of 7, 7.5, 8?

I like the player, I just want to argue over something petty and unorpiky.

You don't get bargains often. He's earning his money quite nicely.

 

[twabby]

Niskanen (and Alzner, for that matter) is my idea of a good defensive defenseman. Every single year of his career he has given up fewer shots against relative to his teammates. This season is a perfect example of why he's valuable even if he isn't putting up big points because he limits quality opportunities against and doesn't get hemmed in his own zone.

As I mentioned earlier, I'd like to see him separated from Alzner for an extended period because I think it would bring better balance to the top 4 and I don't necessarily think Alzner and Niskanen have some sort of unbreakable chemistry.

 

[Bananas]

Break up Ovie-Backstrom and Alzner-Niskanen, then plan accordingly. We have most of the pieces. Just didn't implement them at optimal last year and it cost us (deadline and coaching). Ultimately they just need to add the right pieces to push us over the hump and then the onus should fall on coaching to get the most out of the roster. Both the maximization of the roster (mostly deadline) and the implementation of our final roster (coaching) came up short last year. That's where I'd put emphasis if I'm Ted...it doesn't necessarily matter how the timing shakes out whether it be this summer or at the deadline as far as I'm concerned. Just go all-in this year and, yes, keep in mind the expansion ramifications, but don't let it cow-tie you...

 

[Hivemind]

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe those teams would have stuck it out longer at least. They were a very convenient tool at the time.

As-is an Orpik buyout ($9M) would be the fourth-richest non-compliance buyout all-time: only Yashin ($17.6M), Semin ($14M) & Ribeiro ($11.6M) were larger. Milbury & Rutherford were both gone as GMs when the first two moves were made. Maloney didn't make it two years after buying out Ribeiro.

There's a reason two of those are recent deals, and that's because of general salary inflation. Of the largest 25 buyouts in NHL history, 18 have occurred since 2012. Virtually any buyout that happens is going to be among the richest of all-time. The RJ Umberger buyout ($4.5M) is the 7th largest non-compliance in history.

As for the GMs getting fired/replaced, I stand by my previous stance. The mistakes in those cases isn't the buyout, it's signing the contract in the first place. The buyout is mostly just bad optics. And in the case of Rutherford, he did just win GM of the Year and a Stanley Cup...

 

[Langway]

There's a reason two of those are recent deals, and that's because of general salary inflation. Of the largest 25 buyouts in NHL history, 18 have occurred since 2012. Virtually any buyout that happens is going to be among the richest of all-time. The RJ Umberger buyout ($4.5M) is the 7th largest non-compliance in history.

The Umberger buyout total is two-thirds of the final year so $3M. That's not top 25. The Cowen buyout was only $1.5M since he's so young and Toronto even gets a slim cap credit next season. If Vanek indeed gets bought out that would cost $5M but we'll see if that happens or not.

Rising salaries are part of it but it's more the reality of the hard salary cap over time--with half of the top recent buyouts of the get-out-of-jail-free compliance variety--and how damaging a toxic contract can be. The vast majority of those were pricey July 1st splashy deals that blew up in GMs faces a few years later. With retained salary trades now that route should viable for everything but the most toxic, ill-advised deals. I can't imagine Orpik's is there yet. It could get there but it isn't yet. And, of course, it's likely academic anyway because they're likely not pursuing it.

 

[Carlzner]

 

[Calicaps]

That homecoming worked out well.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Vanek turned into such a disappointment....what happened to that guy?

 

[Langway]

Garrioch FWIW:

There’s talk the Washington Capitals will show interest in Islanders forward Frans Nielsen on the open market. Not sure where he fits.

 

[RandyHolt]

Vanek turned into such a disappointment....what happened to that guy?

I will blindly guess, fat cat disease.

That, or injury, are the leading suspects.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Vanek turned into such a disappointment....what happened to that guy?

Yet statistically last season he was quite comparable with Marcus Johansson.

Both played 74 games Vanek with 18 goals vs. MAJO's 17, both with 6 power play goals, MAJO with 29 assists while Vanek had 23.

Perhaps Minnesota is interested in replacing Vanek with a younger version. MAJO and Nate Schmidt for Jonas Brodin.

Alzner - Niskanen
Brodin - Carlson
Orpik - Orlov
Chorney

 

[txpd]

Garrioch FWIW:

not sure bruce is paying close enough attention if he says he doesnt see where he would fit. maclellan has said it publically in the post playoffs presser that he should have seen

 

[36kap36]

I'm not really sure Washington is a fit. Kruger is a perfect 4C on a Cup contending team and Chicago heavily leaned on him for defensive zone matchups. That being said, he doesn't produce offensively and the Capitals already have a cheaper (albeit not as good) defensive 4C in Jay Beagle. I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with Kruger as a 3C because that pretty much goes back to the 2 scoring lines, 2 defensive lines paradigm which is proving to be less and less successful compared to having 3 scoring lines and 1 defensive line.

NOT AS GOOD, HUH?

 

[txpd]

Sometimes I wonder if and why some Caps fans dont appreciate Jay Beagle. Beagle isnt as good as Kruger? Defensively? i just dont get that.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Sometimes I wonder if and why some Caps fans dont appreciate Jay Beagle. Beagle isnt as good as Kruger? Defensively? i just dont get that.

Agreed. I can't imagine the team will allow Beagle to be exposed to Las Vegas. I think he's one of the 7 forwards protected (unless the team adds someone this year that changes that).

Beagle is their lone bottom 6 staple. They won't allow him to leave