Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXII

[Hivemind]

I haven't been stating anything regarding a 3 year penalty. I'm fully aware of the cap implications. I even spelled them out in the very first post where I talked about buying him out (right after the Pittsburgh series). A buyout still results in net cap savings ($3M per season over the next three years, compared to the $1.5M detriment in the following three, so a total $4.5M in cap savings).

 

[Hivemind]

I'm over this discussion with you, it's tangled and broken, and your way of expressing yourself is annoying.

I will leave with this: If Orpik gets bought out this summer, I will change my screen name to Hivemind is Smarter than Me. If he doesn't get bought out, you can admit it was a flawed, dumb idea.

I'm sure ....in the end....neither of which will happen. I won't have to change my screen name, and you won't back down from your ridiculous mindset.

I actually back up my opinions with evidence. I guess having to find actual support for your conclusions may be annoying for some.

Dude, I've said multiple times I don't expect him to be bought out in reality. I'm arguing for what I think should be done, not what I think will be done. So I'm not going to take that bet. It's a flawed idea, but it's the least flawed option left to the Capitals. The dumb portion already happened when they signed a 34 year old Brooks Orpik to a $27.5M deal.

I will, however, take that bet regarding Orpik being selected in the expansion draft.

 

[Raikkonen]

While it's painful to wait... GMBM got us pretty big additions both times @ July 1st.

Hard to expect him to suddenly be calm with Galiev, Latta and some scrub level 3C McPhee would sign.

I'm confident he's in play for a big fish.

 

[g00n]

I wouldn't write off the saving face factor though. Orpik was one of GMBM's early big moves, and he's coming off of a disasterous playoff appearance. I think we would all agree he's either the worst contract on the team or in the running. Don't you think that factors into MacLellan's thinking?

I hope the optics aren't MacLellan's first priority, but unless he's a total idiot it has to at least factor into his thinking.

One of the reasons gmbm got the job was brutal honesty when talking to Ted about the team's shortcomings. So no, I don't think this is a concern. At all.

 

[g00n]

I actually back up my opinions with evidence. I guess having to find actual support for your conclusions may be annoying for some.

Dude, I've said multiple times I don't expect him to be bought out in reality. I'm arguing for what I think should be done, not what I think will be done. So I'm not going to take that bet. It's a flawed idea, but it's the least flawed option left to the Capitals. The dumb portion already happened when they signed a 34 year old Brooks Orpik to a $27.5M deal.

I will, however, take that bet regarding Orpik being selected in the expansion draft.

Buyout is the least flawed idea in your opinion, right? It's not one of those facts supported by evidence? Because very good cases can and have been made for other options, and some good cases have been made against buyout.

 

[twabby]

Do people really care about a $1.5M buyout hit from 2019-2022? The weight being put on that small of a cap hit on a team that far into the future compared to the importance of winning now is a little perplexing to me.

I understand if you are weary of a $2.5M buyout hit from now until 2019. If you don't think a suitable replacement can be found for far less than $3M then it doesn't make sense. I happen to disagree, but at least we'd both be focusing on winning now instead of worrying about the not-so-near future where the composition of the team will likely be drastically different and the salary cap may be way higher.

And again, I'd prefer a trade to a buyout. I am mentioning a buyout because that option is 100% available whereas a trade is dependent on another team taking on Orpik.

 

[txpd]

Do people really care about a $1.5M buyout hit from 2019-2022? The weight being put on that small of a cap hit on a team that far into the future compared to the importance of winning now is a little perplexing to me.

I understand if you are weary of a $2.5M buyout hit from now until 2019. If you don't think a suitable replacement can be found for far less than $3M then it doesn't make sense. I happen to disagree, but at least we'd both be focusing on winning now instead of worrying about the not-so-near future where the composition of the team will likely be drastically different and the salary cap may be way higher.

What is $1.5m of available cap space prorated to at the trade deadline? $1.5m could be the difference between signing a stud young player to a 7 year deal and only two and then having to fight ufa to get the next contract signed.

Every dollar counts. You know that

 

[twabby]

What is $1.5m of available cap space prorated to at the trade deadline? $1.5m could be the difference between signing a stud young player to a 7 year deal and only two and then having to fight ufa to get the next contract signed.

Every dollar counts. You know that

Ovechkin will be 34 years old in 2019 and probably not nearly as effective. The time to compete for a Cup is now. Build a competitive team now, worry about 2019-20 season in 2019-20. Chicago has taken this mindset and it has won them 3 Cups, despite having severe cap casualties after each win. I'd make that trade off any day of the week.

 

[RandyHolt]

Orpik wasn't our problem. Secondary scoring and ever letting Weber in a game was. I like GMBM's idea of revamping the bottom 6 and D-wise we won't be caught with a Weber-like player again.

Orpik's was a freaking maniac in that series, that heavily exposed all our struggling 5-8. And exposed Alzner playing on 1 leg to boot.

If there was one game Orpik had to keep his cool, it was game 6. Nope, he got irritated with a little interference, and drew blood.

Orpik was a disaster in that series. Arguably our worst player yes even worse than Weber who at least played disciplined in his 18 minutes.

 

[g00n]

What is $1.5m of available cap space prorated to at the trade deadline? $1.5m could be the difference between signing a stud young player to a 7 year deal and only two and then having to fight ufa to get the next contract signed.

Every dollar counts. You know that

Of course. It makes no sense to argue for a buyout to save money or eliminate a contract that hampers cap flexibility on one hand and then dismiss the negative monetary cap implications. Nor does it make sense to poo-poo the original move as being shortsighted and short term while arguing for more "right now" type moves.

It seems like "buyout at all costs" reasoning.

 

[Langway]

I understand if you are weary of a $2.5M buyout hit from now until 2019. If you don't think a suitable replacement can be found for far less than $3M then it doesn't make sense.

Even for $2M, which is far from certain, you're only saving $1M in the process. Have you seen the type of UFA defenseman for that type of money? Clayton Stoner makes $3.25M. Adam McQuaid makes $2.75M. Kevan Miller makes $2.5M. You'd really sign Wiercioch to a three-year contract? Who else do you get for that money? Matt Bartkowski?

You act like an equal replacement on the cheap is easy when it's just not the case. Even if you were to find a third pair D that does the same things there is utility in retaining Orpik due to his ability to play higher in the lineup given uncertainty with 88/9. If 88/9 were better or they had more internal competition it would be one thing. But what you're suggesting has many more obstacles than you let on, to say nothing of just being erratically quick on the trigger. They've committed to him, for better or worse. It's going to take more to force something to happen there.

 

[txpd]

Of course. It makes no sense to argue for a buyout to save money or eliminate a contract that hampers cap flexibility on one hand and then dismiss the negative monetary cap implications. Nor does it make sense to poo-poo the original move as being shortsighted and short term while arguing for more "right now" type moves.

It seems like "buyout at all costs" reasoning.

nah...its i hate Orpik and want him gone at all costs. The disconnect clearly is that keeping Orpik will keep the Caps from winning now. While the team believes that Orpik is necessary to win now.

 

[txpd]

Even for $2M, which is far from certain, you're only saving $1M in the process. Have you seen the type of UFA defenseman for that type of money? Clayton Stoner makes $3.25M. Adam McQuaid makes $2.75M. Kevan Miller makes $2.5M. You'd really sign Wiercioch to a three-year contract? Who else do you get for that money? Matt Bartkowski?

You act like an equal replacement on the cheap is easy when it's just not the case. Even if you were to find a third pair D that does the same things there is utility in retaining Orpik due to his ability to play higher in the lineup given uncertainty with 88/9. If 88/9 were better or they had more internal competition it would be one thing. But what you're suggesting has many more obstacles than you let on, to say nothing of just being erratically quick on the trigger. They've committed to him, for better or worse. It's going to take more to force something to happen there.

pretty clear to me that those advocating the dump oprik play think orpik is worse than these pedestrian defensemen that you list above. i am not entirely sure they think Oprik is even better than Chorney.

 

[OV Rocks]

I think that we may be undervaluing MOJO's value in the trade market. Troy Brouwer and a future backup goalie brought in TJ Oshie. I believe that MOJO has similar if not slightly more value than Brouwer due to age, speed, and versatility. His return on a trade could be pretty significant, add in a pick and or prospect and we could see a very good player returned. Brouwer is a 2nd/3rd line player, MOJO is a 2nd/3rd line player. MOJO is a little younger and a bit more skilled. I think that in a package like Brouwer we could get a really good player similar to the value of Oshie maybe better.

Also I hear that Chicago is looking into Malkin meaning the Pens would likely get a stud (Kane or Keith) back. Caps need to go balls to the walls and add a stud of their own it has to happen

 

[hockeykicker]

I think that we may be undervaluing MOJO's value in the trade market. Troy Brouwer and a future backup goalie brought in TJ Oshie. I believe that MOJO has similar if not slightly more value than Brouwer due to age, speed, and versatility. His return on a trade could be pretty significant, add in a pick and or prospect and we could see a very good player returned. Brouwer is a 2nd/3rd line player, MOJO is a 2nd/3rd line player. MOJO is a little younger and a bit more skilled. I think that in a package like Brouwer we could get a really good player similar to the value of Oshie maybe better.

Also I hear that Chicago is looking into Malkin meaning the Pens would likely get a stud (Kane or Keith) back. Caps need to go balls to the walls and add a stud of their own it has to happen

That Malkin rumor has been proven false by every major person and the original source was some random guy who is like a Eklund.

 

[johnsic]

I think we will sign Dave Backes this off season. The contract will be something crazy like 6 x 6m. We will overpay just like with Orpik and Niskanen.

 

[OV Rocks]

I think we will sign Dave Backes this off season. The contract will be something crazy like 6 x 6m. We will overpay just like with Orpik and Niskanen.

No chance, they aren't that desperate. Mac knows he needs the money next summer for in house contracts. Don't see the Caps being big Free Agent spenders if they even go after UFAs at all. Trades are going to be how new faces are brought in.

 

[um]

I think it's likely we bring in a cheaper UFA like Williams who won't get many big money offers, for some reason. Someone like Versteeg or Perron, not a center but those are more expensive.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

After the Laich trade I posted that with the departure of Brouwer and Laich, who would become this board's new whipping boy. At the time of my post, Orpik never entered my mind as a possibility, but reading these threads since the playoffs it's quite evident he's become just that for some.

For the life of me, I still can't understand why some here are still enamored with Johansson. Nice zone entries during a PP can only do so much for me.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Do people really care about a $1.5M buyout hit from 2019-2022? The weight being put on that small of a cap hit on a team that far into the future compared to the importance of winning now is a little perplexing to me.

I understand if you are weary of a $2.5M buyout hit from now until 2019. If you don't think a suitable replacement can be found for far less than $3M then it doesn't make sense. I happen to disagree, but at least we'd both be focusing on winning now instead of worrying about the not-so-near future where the composition of the team will likely be drastically different and the salary cap may be way higher.

And again, I'd prefer a trade to a buyout. I am mentioning a buyout because that option is 100% available whereas a trade is dependent on another team taking on Orpik.

Considering that Hivemind's very argument is "look what the Caps could do, today, with 1.5m in extra cap space!".....it's hard to understand which side of the fence you guys are on.

Does 1.5 matter.....or not? The Capitals have done a really good job in growing some awesome young talent on offense, have a young G, and a mostly young D. While we all realize that ONE of their first Windows to the Cup was 15-17, it really shouldn't be the only one.

I read an article about how Yzerman won his first Cup at 32 (Ovy will be 32 next season), and years of failures....and then went on to win 2 more (3 altogether).

Point being, things happen in sports, so while you need a short view of the team, you also HAVE to take a long view. For a team that seems to have a good 6-8 years of being relevant to the Cup discussions, having a penalty for 6 of those is (again) foolish.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I actually back up my opinions with evidence. I guess having to find actual support for your conclusions may be annoying for some.

Dude, I've said multiple times I don't expect him to be bought out in reality. I'm arguing for what I think should be done, not what I think will be done. So I'm not going to take that bet. It's a flawed idea, but it's the least flawed option left to the Capitals. The dumb portion already happened when they signed a 34 year old Brooks Orpik to a $27.5M deal.

I will, however, take that bet regarding Orpik being selected in the expansion draft.

You and your "facts and evidence"....lol. The only real discussion here is whether an Orpik Buy Out makes sense, this summer.

It's not an evidence question. It's an opinion question. You are throwing players salaries, fancy stats, and such as "facts and evidence" to bolster Your Opinion. How can you not understand that? There is no "evidence" that shows you can get a 2m replacements for Orpik, now. As Langway and others have shown, the fallacy that it will be somehow "easy" to just plug in a replacement that helps the team is not being addressed by you.

Almost all on here think your opinion on this matter is wrong. Flat out.

What's annoying about your style here, is that 6-7 posters are telling you how wrong you are, yet you ignore them and seem to want to harp on me and CCF.

Look at g00n's and Langways arguments, which are almost exactly what I have been saying this entire time (perhaps not so eloquently, but same premises). You won't refute them.

And of course you admit that GMBM won't exercise an Orpik Buy Out. Why? Because he wants to spite poster Hivemind on HF Boards? NO?..he won't because it's an obtuse idea. Period.

 

[Ridley Simon]

After the Laich trade I posted that with the departure of Brouwer and Laich, who would become this board's new whipping boy. At the time of my post, Orpik never entered my mind as a possibility, but reading these threads since the playoffs it's quite evident he's become just that for some.

For the life of me, I still can't understand why some here are still enamored with Johansson. Nice zone entries during a PP can only do so much for me.

2 posters have made him the whipping boy. It's not the Board, at all.

Most logical posters see that his play last year wasn't worth 5.5m. That could mean it won't be worth 5.5m again (we will see), so if there is a way to use that 5.5m more intelligently, we won't be upset if he gets traded.

Only 2 people are on the "Fire Orpik at all costs!!!!" bandwagon. It's a lonely wagon.

 

[txpd]

I think we will sign Dave Backes this off season. The contract will be something crazy like 6 x 6m. We will overpay just like with Orpik and Niskanen.

The Caps didnt overpay for Niskanen.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The Caps didnt overpay for Niskanen.

Not at all. I'd even argue he's turning into a bargain.

That's another piece to the Orpik deal. Many stated his deal opened the door to Niskanen. I don't know either way, but if that's the truth, it's another factor in giving Orpik the deal that they did.

Where would the Caps be without Niskanen?

 

[twabby]

Considering that Hivemind's very argument is "look what the Caps could do, today, with 1.5m in extra cap space!".....it's hard to understand which side of the fence you guys are on.

Does 1.5 matter.....or not? The Capitals have done a really good job in growing some awesome young talent on offense, have a young G, and a mostly young D. While we all realize that ONE of their first Windows to the Cup was 15-17, it really shouldn't be the only one.

I read an article about how Yzerman won his first Cup at 32 (Ovy will be 32 next season), and years of failures....and then went on to win 2 more (3 altogether).

Point being, things happen in sports, so while you need a short view of the team, you also HAVE to take a long view. For a team that seems to have a good 6-8 years of being relevant to the Cup discussions, having a penalty for 6 of those is (again) foolish.

The Capitals are in a very enviable position right now where they have several good players on cap-friendly deals (Carlson, Alzner, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Williams) and their superstar is still performing like a superstar.

This is all likely to change in the next year or two. Kuznetsov is getting paid huge money, Burakovsky is going to get a significant raise, Carlson is going to get $6M+, Alzner is going to get $4M+, Williams will likely be gone, a good player is likely to be lost to Las Vegas, and Ovechkin almost surely will slow down. The team may not be able to afford all of their best players, so who's to say they will even be a contender in 2 or 3 years?

The fact is this team is a contender for a Cup in 2016-17. $1.5M in cap space to a contender now is MUCH more valuable than $1.5M in cap space to a team that may or may not be a contender 3-6 years in the future. It could be the difference between adding Loui Eriksson or Frans Nielsen compared to adding players like Michael Grabner or PA Parenteau.

Again, a player like Barret Jackman went for $2M last year, and all indications are someone like Patrick Wiercioch or even like Christian Ehrhoff will go for close to $1M this offseason. And Orpik's production at ages 37 and 38 should be even easier to replace in 2017-18 and 2018-19, given how he is likely to decline even more as his career winds down.