Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXII

[twabby]

Just as I think the team shouldn't bank on Tom Wilson stepping up this season when formulating their offseason plans, the team shouldn't be banking on Orpik being taken next season in the expansion draft when determining what to do this offseason. Why would LV take Orpik at age 37 when there will be other vets with intangibles available as well? The difference is that the Capitals will also have to expose one of Orlov, Alzner, Carlson, or Niskanen (along with probably at least one quality top 9 forward). Very few teams in the NHL will have to expose that type of quality, so it makes more sense that LV would take one of the more tangibly good defensemen with upside or in their prime.

The problem is what do you do next offseason if Orpik has another subpar season? Buy him out then? Try to trade him then when it's even less likely a team will want him? It only saves you $1.5M in 2021-2022 if you buy him out next year vs. this year, hardly a big difference. There are options that I believe are available for cheap that can replace Orpik.

An interesting name that will be available on defense is Patrick Wiercioch. Admittedly, I looked up names based on stats to start with and his possession stats are quite good. Behind Erik Karlsson, he was the best possession player on Ottawa for a few years. I asked the Ottawa fans and many of them said he'd be a good option as a 3LD. His strengths are his first pass and generally being a decent puck mover, while his weaknesses are in the defensive zone. He would likely only command between $1M and $1.5M.

Buying out Orpik and replacing him with Wiercioch would save $1.5M to $2.0M against the cap. You'd get an improvement in the puck-moving ability while maybe slightly dropping off in defensive ability. As we've seen in Pittsburgh, good forwards can mask defensemen who aren't very good defensively

If I were MacLellan I would make a move like this without hesitation, rather than banking on him being taken in the expansion draft. Worst case is your defense is SLIGHTLY worse with Wiercioch, but you have $2M more in cap space to spend on forwards. Best case is you actually improve your defense along with having the ability to improve your forwards more than if you hold on to Orpik.

 

[Efactor]

Just as I think the team shouldn't bank on Tom Wilson stepping up this season when formulating their offseason plans, the team shouldn't be banking on Orpik being taken next season in the expansion draft when determining what to do this offseason. Why would LV take Orpik at age 37 when there will be other vets with intangibles available as well? The difference is that the Capitals will also have to expose one of Orlov, Alzner, Carlson, or Niskanen (along with probably at least one quality top 9 forward). Very few teams in the NHL will have to expose that type of quality, so it makes more sense that LV would take one of the more tangibly good defensemen with upside or in their prime.

LV would take him because they'll need leadership. A guy with multiple Stanley Cups to spend a season or two setting the tone for nutrition, work ethic, and poise. He'll also help them to the cap floor while rolling off the books after two seasons when they could conceivably aim to make the playoffs. If I'm the LV GM, he is totally a guy I want. Dustin Brown, no way because he'll handcuff you for too long, but Orpik might be perfect.

 

[twabby]

LV would take him because they'll need leadership. A guy with multiple Stanley Cups to spend a season or two setting the tone for nutrition, work ethic, and poise. He'll also help them to the cap floor while rolling off the books after two seasons when they could conceivably aim to make the playoffs. If I'm the LV GM, he is totally a guy I want. Dustin Brown, no way because he'll handcuff you for too long, but Orpik might be perfect.

LV will have 29 other teams to choose if they want intangibles. The Capitals will have better actual skilled players that will be exposed in the draft because their roster is better than most other teams'.

 

[Langway]

The final year of Orpik's buyout cap hit is a year after Ovechkin's deal expires, two years after 19 & 70's deals expire. People that think this is a possibility are nuts.

 

[twabby]

The final year of Orpik's buyout cap hit is a year after Ovechkin's deal expires, two years after 19 & 70's deals expire. People that think this is a possibility are nuts.

I'm not predicting what will happen, I'm just giving my opinion of what I think should happen. I agree, a buyout or trade isn't likely to happen.

 

[Hivemind]

LV would take him because they'll need leadership. A guy with multiple Stanley Cups to spend a season or two setting the tone for nutrition, work ethic, and poise. He'll also help them to the cap floor while rolling off the books after two seasons when they could conceivably aim to make the playoffs. If I'm the LV GM, he is totally a guy I want. Dustin Brown, no way because he'll handcuff you for too long, but Orpik might be perfect.

Orpik doesn't have multiple Stanley Cups.

They don't have to waste an expansion pick to get a player with leadership and/or cup experience. Here's a handful of of 2017 UFAs. Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Andrei Markov, Barrett Jackman, Ryan Miller, Mike Fisher, Brian Gionta, Patrick Sharp, Chris Kunitz, Johnny Oduya, Antoine Vermette, Rob Scuderi, Justin Williams.

Any of those free agents (and more) can help them reach the salary cap floor when they throw money at them.

 

[txpd]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's not likely to happen because it's stupid business to buy him out now.

 

[g00n]

If you're a GM imagine explaining to your boss that your big ticket Cup-winning d-man is being bought out at significant cap penalty because of a few percentage points in a team passing statistic after a year where he played on a broken leg. Then imagine working on your resume'.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Orpik doesn't have multiple Stanley Cups.

They don't have to waste an expansion pick to get a player with leadership and/or cup experience. Here's a handful of of 2017 UFAs. Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Andrei Markov, Barrett Jackman, Ryan Miller, Mike Fisher, Brian Gionta, Patrick Sharp, Chris Kunitz, Johnny Oduya, Antoine Vermette, Rob Scuderi, Justin Williams.

Any of those free agents (and more) can help them reach the salary cap floor when they throw money at them.

Why are you wasting time throwing out random names? Your guess is no more valid than anyone else's. Your answer is to handicap the team salary cap for the next 6 years. Not much point in carrying on with your Orpik disdain.

In your world a player is only as good as his tangible metrics. Team building, chemistry, leadership, mentoring appear to mean nothing to you. What else is there to discuss?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If you're a GM imagine explaining to your boss that your big ticket Cup-winning d-man is being bought out at significant cap penalty because of a few percentage points in a team passing statistic after a year where he played on a broken leg. Then imagine working on your resume'.

The notion right now is about as full of fail as you could get. From many angles.

 

[twabby]

If you're a GM imagine explaining to your boss that your big ticket Cup-winning d-man is being bought out at significant cap penalty because of a few percentage points in a team passing statistic after a year where he played on a broken leg. Then imagine working on your resume'.

Yeah and that's why it probably will never happen. Buying out Orpik is admitting you made a mistake.

And no one's advocating buying him out because of a "passing statistic". A complete statistical analysis, combined with the eye test and his deterioration over the years and using historical comparables at his age (amongst other reasons) makes his cap hit untenable.

Why are you wasting time throwing out random names? Your guess is no more valid than anyone else's. Your answer is to handicap the team salary cap for the next 6 years. Not much point in carrying on with your Orpik disdain.

In your world a player is only as good as his tangible metrics. Team building, chemistry, leadership, mentoring appear to mean nothing to you. What else is there to discuss?

I imagine he's throwing out random names because each of those random names has just as much in terms of intangibles as Brooks Orpik, making it less and less like Orpik will be targeted specifically for his intangibles in the expansion.

 

[g00n]

Yeah and that's why it probably will never happen. Buying out Orpik is admitting you made a mistake.

I knew this would be the reply.

It's not about the GM saving face for a previous, bad move. It's about trying to step into the real GM world and outside the stat/fantasy bubble. A good GM could justify a trade, but not a buyout at this time.

 

[twabby]

I knew this would be the reply.

It's not about the GM saving face for a previous, bad move. It's about trying to step into the real GM world and outside the stat/fantasy bubble. A good GM could justify a trade, but not a buyout at this time.

If you can find a replacement for $3M or less who is just as good as Orpik, the buyout makes sense. I think there are options at this price point, and you don't.

 

[Langway]

If you can find a replacement for $3M or less who is just as good as Orpik, the buyout makes sense. I think there are options at this price point, and you don't.

No, it really doesn't make sense. The buyout savings would be $3M total so you're advocating a push or maybe $1M of savings for next season while keeping $2.5M on the books the following two seasons and then another three seasons of $1.5M. That is a significant outlay for a questionable short-term upgrade, if at all.

If they want to get rid of Orpik they to trade him and retain some salary. A buyout would be the most costly route possible and doesn't buy them all that much financial freedom. A team that so quickly has buyer's remorse shouldn't have signed him in the first place. They'll hold on, hope he rebounds and perhaps they lose him to Vegas. But by basically any standard a buyout is not a viable option.

 

[twabby]

No, it really doesn't make sense. The buyout savings would be $3M total so you're advocating a push or maybe $1M of savings for next season while keeping $2.5M on the books the following two seasons and then another three seasons of $1.5M. That is a significant outlay for a questionable short-term upgrade, if at all.

If they want to get rid of Orpik they to trade him and retain some salary. A buyout would be the most costly route possible and doesn't buy them all that much financial freedom. A team that so quickly has buyer's remorse shouldn't have signed him in the first place. They'll hold on, hope he rebounds and perhaps they lose him to Vegas. But by basically any standard a buyout is not a viable option.

I'm saying they can find someone for $3M or less for the next 3 years, not just next year. But I do think next year should be prioritized over say year 2020 because their window is now. I agree, a trade is preferable to a buy out. If they can find a trade partner go that route. But I doubt any team is interested, in which case a buyout is the next best option.

And I couldn't agree more with the bolded statement. The contract was a huge mistake from the moment it was signed. The Capitals didn't return to relevance because of Orpik. They returned to relevance because Adam Oates was a terrible coach and Trotz is a pretty good coach (albeit with a few flaws), and because GMBM's other moves have been pretty good.

 

[Langway]

I'm saying they can find someone for $3M or less for the next 3 years, not just next year.

But all you're doing is treading water so what's the point? Great. You've maybe found an equal player at $3M but the buyout costs $2.5M against the cap so...what has been accomplished?

It would be one thing if they had a young defenseman like Edmundson as a replacement on the cheap for a while. It's another to dip into UFA once again and assume it's really going to work. A player like Wiercioch isn't going kill penalties really so while maybe there's more puck movement the overall 4-6 mix would arguably be even worse. If there's no substantial savings to be had then it's hard to see the point, especially since it could handcuff them for years on end.

 

[Efactor]

Orpik wasn't our problem. Secondary scoring and ever letting Weber in a game was. I like GMBM's idea of revamping the bottom 6 and D-wise we won't be caught with a Weber-like player again.

 

[Hivemind]

Why are you wasting time throwing out random names? Your guess is no more valid than anyone else's. Your answer is to handicap the team salary cap for the next 6 years. Not much point in carrying on with your Orpik disdain.

In your world a player is only as good as his tangible metrics. Team building, chemistry, leadership, mentoring appear to mean nothing to you. What else is there to discuss?

Random names? I'm throwing out veteran leadership and players with cup experience. Basically the first half of the list are known leaders (many have been captains, others are just well established veterans) and the second half of the list are guys with cups on their resume. Orpik's leadership and cup experience is the excuse being given for picking up Orpik in the expansion draft. That massive list of potential UFAs shows that Vegas doesn't need to use an expansion pick to get that. Not all of those players will make it to unrestricted free agency (and a few might retire), but they don't need to acquire all those players. Just one or two will provide all the leadership they need, and they have a couple dozen potential UFA options. Vegas can instead focus their expansion picks on higher value players with a potential future on the team. The types of players that they cannot acquire in free agency, and that will help make up for their lack of prospect pool.

I value leadership and team construction plenty. I just don't think that it costs nearly as much as the Capitals paid for it with Brooks Orpik.

 

[Hivemind]

Orpik wasn't our problem. Secondary scoring and ever letting Weber in a game was. I like GMBM's idea of revamping the bottom 6 and D-wise we won't be caught with a Weber-like player again.

Orpik's $5.5M salary prevents the team from acquiring more scoring and defensive depth.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

D? Free agent cast offs? Forwards? More castoffs? Add to that a cap penalty for 6 years? No thanks.

Orpik, Orlov, Schmidt and Chorney need to be better. Those would be more significant upgrades than adding some aging defensemen and more premium priced free agents.

Prep yourselves for another year of handwringing over 44. The money and assets are there if the Caps feel the need to make upgrades.

 

[Devil Dancer]

I knew this would be the reply.

It's not about the GM saving face for a previous, bad move. It's about trying to step into the real GM world and outside the stat/fantasy bubble. A good GM could justify a trade, but not a buyout at this time.

I wouldn't write off the saving face factor though. Orpik was one of GMBM's early big moves, and he's coming off of a disasterous playoff appearance. I think we would all agree he's either the worst contract on the team or in the running. Don't you think that factors into MacLellan's thinking?

I hope the optics aren't MacLellan's first priority, but unless he's a total idiot it has to at least factor into his thinking.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I wouldn't write off the saving face factor though. Orpik was one of GMBM's early big moves, and he's coming off of a disasterous playoff appearance. I think we would all agree he's either the worst contract on the team or in the running. Don't you think that factors into MacLellan's thinking?

I hope the optics aren't MacLellan's first priority, but unless he's a total idiot it has to at least factor into his thinking.

They lost to the Champs by a slim margin. All talk of disasterous playoffs is long gone internally IMO.

its long since been rationalized by ownership and management. Do you disagree that it's bad business to pursue a buyout today? A trade sure, you consider that, but not a buyout.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Which is pretty much exactly what you've been doing, no?

You keep trooping back to something you took out of context several pages ago. You've attempted to frame my positions as something they were not (take your repeated posts claiming I wanted to sign Cammalleri, for instance). When presented with hard evidence, you've accused me of running a "smear campaign" and "hyperbole." When presented with quotes, you either ignore them or adjust your claims, stating you were in fact talking about previous posts.

I threw in a silly jab at the end about your calling a pro-Orpik campaign effectively as a taste of your own medicine. And then you immediately blow up with "STOP." Do you see what it's like attempting to debate a topic with you?


The fall out of not buying out Orpik hurts this team's ability to win a Stanley Cup during its current window. Both I and Brian MacLellan agree the window is in 2016-17. HOw else do I need to say this to you? Is that clear enough?



Go ahead and find a quote where I stated the pipe dream portion is fact. I'll wait.

As for the ESPN story, I'll also wait for you to defend that the author think Nashville might expose Shea Weber and that the Las Vegas team is going to be called the Blue Knights. Go ahead.



Go ahead and find me a quote where I said that Orpik is a 3rd pairing defenseman is a fact. I'll wait.




Here are Orpik's off ice metrics from the 2015-16 regular season.
5-on-5 GF Off/60: 1.75
5-on-5 GA Off/60: 1.94
source

The only insights to really be gleaned from his off-ice metrics are that both teams scored a lot more goals while Orpik was on the ice. Unless you're now suddenly taking the position than Orpik has some hidden offensive talent that must be utilized, I'm not really sure what angle you were going for when discussing this off ice metrics. Unless by "off ice metrics" you meant something that aren't actually metrics.




Stating which international teams Orpik has been a part of is a shrouded opinion? Stating which players are on expiring contracts is a shrouded opinion? Stating goals against rates is a shrouded opinion? Noted.

You didn't say "seen as a winner." You said he was a winner at every level. I disputed that by stating which levels he had and had not won at. Pretty darn simple, really.

You also said he was a part of "countless national teams." The reality is that his four appearances on US national teams is dwarfed by quite a few other players. The "14 year spread" is the result of one of those teams being an age-limited junior team. Unless you want to argue that he's going to be a Chris Drury-like presence and reach his third Olympic Games in 2018, I'm not sure what you're going for with the "14 year spread" angle. I'd find that a hard sell, considering Orpik isn't on the current USA roster for the upcoming World Cup.
There's a pretty huge difference between a guy like Brooks Orpik with 4 national team appearances and guys like Jack Johnson (11 appearances) and Ryan Suter (12 appearances). Even if you limit it to purely professional aged appearances, both of them double Orpik up with six professional aged appearances to his three. There are other guys a few years Orpik's junior who have been a much bigger part of USA Hockey (Backes, Stastny, Parise, Brown, etc).
Finally, if you look back at the game summaries from the 2014 Olympics, you'll see that while Orpik was "on paper" a top 4 defenseman, he was receiving between 10 and 19 minutes of TOI (so functionally a 3rd pairing defenseman for many of the games).
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/388/IHM400102_74_3_0.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/388/IHM400202_74_3_0.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/388/IHM400304_74_3_0.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/388/IHM400A02_74_3_1.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/388/IHM400A04_74_5_0.pdf
http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/388/IHM400A06_74_3_1.pdf

I didn't look into the TOI for the 2010 games.

As an aside, how cool is it to have five Americans on the Capitals blue line?

I'm over this discussion with you, it's tangled and broken, and your way of expressing yourself is annoying.

I will leave with this: If Orpik gets bought out this summer, I will change my screen name to Hivemind is Smarter than Me. If he doesn't get bought out, you can admit it was a flawed, dumb idea.

I'm sure ....in the end....neither of which will happen. I won't have to change my screen name, and you won't back down from your ridiculous mindset.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The final year of Orpik's buyout cap hit is a year after Ovechkin's deal expires, two years after 19 & 70's deals expire. People that think this is a possibility are nuts.

So it's 6 years of a cap detriment, right? It's double the term of the removed contract (3 bought out yrs is a 6 yr penalty).

The 2 guys on here thumping this drum have been stating a 3yr penalty....which is wrong?

So it's even dumber than at first glance! Lol