Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXII

[SpinningEdge]

You need young guys on cheap contracts to produce. Every team has their top paid players perform that succeed in the playoffs (at least most of them), there's usually always a difference making cheap guy on a team though. Murray this year for Pitt, Seguin for BOS, Toffoli for LA, etc etc etc.

Caps guys making under 2M are guys like Latta, Chorney, WIlson, Galiev, Richards, Beagle, etc. None of them are going to do anything or "step up" in the playoffs. The one guy we hoped for was Burro - and he fell flat on his face.

If not a big move like Carlson/Hall package (which let's be honest- will never happen) What about something like Caps 1st RD pick this year, Schmidt, + Bowey for Draisaitl from Edmonton? That solves the 3C issue by far. The kid is 20 - entry level contract making 825k - and this year put up 51 points in 72 games. EDM already has McDavid and Nugent Hopkins - they can afford to lose a C and giving them Bowey/Schmidt they get two NHL players now that can play for them. This is a win-now move by the Caps AND it gives them financial freedom still to add something to easily replace Schmidt/etc.

It's a lot to give up - but with this move - the Caps may have the best C trio in the entire NHL. Every line will have offense potential.

 

[MrGone]

Caps 1st RD pick this year, Schmidt, + Bowey for Draisaitl

That will not get a deal done for Draisaitl.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Possibly. Carlson is good - but let's not forget that in his career he has 160 ES points in 450+ NHL games. 7 seasons in the NHL and has 40+ points only ONCE.

Carlson is a good D guy - but I don't know if a guy who puts up 40 points/season is going to warrant 7.5 - 8+ million/season - and that's what JC could and probably will get next year.

Hall is a guy who is going to put up 30-40 goals every year and 70 points (at least).

... so Carlson, who has put up a 55 point season as recent as 2015, is just a 40 point player.

Yet Hall, who (surprisingly) has never even cracked 30 goals, is going to pot ~40 every year?

 

[HecticGlow]

Question: who has the bigger trade value, Orlov or Mojo? It would be the latter, right?

 

[hockeykicker]

Question: who has the bigger trade value, Orlov or Mojo? It would be the latter, right?

Mojo definitely

 

[txpd]

this season with games played on a broken ankle Carlson was at 0.70 points per game. Hall was at 0.79 this season.

meanwhile Carlson scored 12 pts in 12 playoff games to tie for the team lead. He has 63 playoff games. Hall has 0 playoff points and 0 playoff games.

Lets keep Carlson

 

[txpd]

Caps don't need to get a better overall player. They could just sign a cheap bottom pair defensive-minded guy instead -- and end up with more assets and (probably) more cap space. Depending on what you think about Orlov, it's not a net loss (esp. if you spend the extra cap space well), but you have one less blue-chip asset to protect, i.e:

Protect 7 forwards: Ovi, Backstrom, Oshie, Kuz, Bura, Wilson, Mojo. Presumably.
Protect 3 defensemen: Carlson, Alzner, Niskanen.
Protect Holtby.

I'd love for Orlov to stay, but... he has to show more overall long term upside than Niskanen, otherwise it's surely better to get assets for him than a high risk of losing him at expansion, IMO.

I guess just like this situation with pending UFA's and trying to win, I don't see the advantage. Trade Orlov for futures now so they don't lose him for nothing after next season and replace him with a cheap bottom pair defenseman. This doesn't make the Caps more competitive. Orlov was top 15 in even strength points on defense and should be better next season. If I am getting him for a 2nd round pick and a prospect and then sign a limited replacement, I would rather keep him and losing him and put my best effort forward to try and win.

 

[HecticGlow]

I guess just like this situation with pending UFA's and trying to win, I don't see the advantage. Trade Orlov for futures now so they don't lose him for nothing after next season and replace him with a cheap bottom pair defenseman. This doesn't make the Caps more competitive. Orlov was top 15 in even strength points on defense and should be better next season. If I am getting him for a 2nd round pick and a prospect and then sign a limited replacement, I would rather keep him and losing him and put my best effort forward to try and win.

Is that not a reason to trade him for a good quality forward, then? We need a couple of new faces in the middle six, and wouldn't have that many forwards worth protecting next season (given that Oshie and Williams will be UFAs and Vrana should be exempt). Kill two birds with one stone?

 

[Holtbyisms]

Trading Carlson is the worst idea ever. Guy is a PTP'er. He scored the golden goal in the u-20's won two(?) ahl championships, was a point producing machine in the playoffs this year. Guys who rise to the occasion on a regular basis do not grow on trees. That and the fact he's a #1 D, like it or hate it, he is. He's as important to us as Doughty is to LA and Keith is to CHI.

 

[HecticGlow]

Trading Carlson is the worst idea ever. Guy is a PTP'er. He scored the golden goal in the u-20's won two(?) ahl championships, was a point producing machine in the playoffs this year. Guys who rise to the occasion on a regular basis do not grow on trees. That and the fact he's a #1 D, like it or hate it, he is. He's as important to us as Doughty is to LA and Keith is to CHI.

I would say Carlson's one of our five or six most important players right now.

 

[Nice]

McDonagh-Carlson would be the american dream. Doubt the Rangers will move him though, especially to a rival team.

 

[txpd]

Is that not a reason to trade him for a good quality forward, then? We need a couple of new faces in the middle six, and wouldn't have that many forwards worth protecting next season (given that Oshie and Williams will be UFAs and Vrana should be exempt). Kill two birds with one stone?

defensemen are harder to come by than forwards. you really want to downgrade at defense?

 

[StephenPeat]

I would say Carlson's one of our two most important players right now.

FTFY
Any way you slice it JC is a #1D. He is one of the two most important players on the team, you can choose your favorite as most important, I'm not going to get into the semantics there. Personally I'd put 19 third and 92/27 fourth as of right now, precisely because some people may say 92 and 19 are interchangeable in those slots. I think 19 and 92 represent a future 1A/1A situation which is great to have but it means the team can absorb the loss of one of them (not easily, mind you). Try replacing a 1D league-wide and see how far you get and Carlson's all-situations role could not be replaced by anyone on the team. I'd actually see the logic in someone who put 27 third and 92/19 fourth but to me NBs defense this playoffs put him solidly in the top 3.

And anyone who thinks of trading Carlson for anything is.......misinformed and incorrect. In the thread on the mains even posters from other teams realise the Caps shouldn't trade JC for Taylor Hall, I'm sorry I can't get behind any scenario that has us trading Carlson, for anything.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

defensemen are harder to come by than forwards. you really want to downgrade at defense?

Good forwards are harder to come by than D who are glaring defensive liabilities no?

Does top 15 in regular season even strength points get you a cookie? Certainly didn't matter for jack in the postseason.

 

[Raikkonen]

San Jose with Jumbo Joe in the finals tells you everything you need to know about trading Backstrom. Look elsewhere.

Basically, Ovechkin is here to stay for business reasons.
Backstrom is 1C on a long friendly contract.
Kuznetsov is the only big hope player.
Carlson is 1D on a friendly contract.
Alzner is the best from all
Hotlby is Vezina caliber goalie (possibly) on a reasonable contract too.

All played for Caps only in the NHL from Day 1.

I don't see any of them traded for next 5 years at minimum.

The only questionable guy is Kuznetsov. But everyone wants him to become The Next Best Thing here. He will stay for now

 

[txpd]

Good forwards are harder to come by than D who are glaring defensive liabilities no?

Does top 15 in regular season even strength points get you a cookie? Certainly didn't matter for jack in the postseason.

Yea, it gets you a cookie. Defensemen that can create offense are harder to come by. Gets you two cookies. As for jack in the post season. That is a function of experience or lack there of. Those were his first ever playoff games.

 

[HecticGlow]

I think we need to get Burakovsky going away from Kuznetsov. He struggled all season when he was put on a different line to Kuzy, and its clear looking at teams like Pitt and Tampa that they need to be able to move players up and down the lineup to find something that works.

Kuzy, meanwhile, can get most decent players scoring when he's on a roll. If Bura is dependent on Kuzy, and Williams is shackled to Kuzy, your secondary scoring dies when Kuzy freezes up (and look at how many top guys, like Tarasenko, Crosby and Malkin, were shut out for so many playoff games).

Ovi-Backstrom-Oshie
XXX-Kuzy-Williams
Bura-Mojo-Beagle
Winnik-Stephenson-Wilson

I'd rather add a single top-6 guy (to bring our top-6 capable guys on the team to eight) and get the added flexibility of a genuine top nine than bring in two bottom six guys.

I also wouldn't read too much into Mojo not being at Center in the playoffs - by that same logic Trotz had no faith in Beagle as an offensive 3C either. I think Richards was at 3C because:

• Trotz and co used the logic that he is known for 'elevating his game' during playoffs, and putting him with two offensively capable players is the best chance of that
• Winnik-Richards-Wilson would be less offensively capable than Winnik-Beagle-Wilson, and Trotz wanted production from 'all four lines'

Mojo is much more your 'ideal' offensive centerman than Beagle is, and I really hope they start the season alternating Beagle and Mojo at Center and wing depending on whether they want offense or checking.

 

[Raikkonen]

Ovi-Backstrom-Oshie
XXX-Kuzy-Williams
Bura-Mojo-Beagle
Winnik-Stephenson-Wilson

#2ndRoundExitWhileLovingOurTeam

We have plenty of options.

8-Kuzy-Wilson
8-Kuzy-Mojo
8-Mojo-Oshie
8-Mojo-Wilson
8-?-Burakovsky

Many options to make more quality players available for the 3rd line.

But all these aren't much probable because of Trotz.

I bet Radulov was shot down by Trotz too. For better or for worse.

The only thing keeping me calm is the performance of 8 & 19. Our window is not that narrow actually. In other words, the pain is endless.

EDIT: To illustrate

Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie
Johansson-?Eller?-Williams
Winnik-Stephenson-Beagle

Minimum work from GMBM, some flexibility from Trotz. No too soft lines, good opportunities for 65/43, deep lineup, top-6 depth on the 3rd line available. But we are running 8-19 to the ground

 

[HecticGlow]

#2ndRoundExitWhileLovingOurTeam

We have plenty of options.

8-Kuzy-Wilson
8-Kuzy-Mojo
8-Mojo-Oshie
8-Mojo-Wilson
8-?-Burakovsky

Many options to make more quality players available for the 3rd line.

But all these aren't much probable because of Trotz.

The full top nine lines to make this possible don't necessarily work, though. Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie/Williams didn't lead to scoring when it was tried this year, neither did Mojo-Backstrom-Burakovsky. Likewise, Wilson can hurt a lines offensive capability when he's not 'switched on', which can be for weeks or months at a time.

My point, though, is you need to be able to put together a top nine where all three lines can be counted on offensively, even when mixed up. Using last season's roster as an example:

Ovi-Kuzy-Oshie -- works
Bura-Backstrom-Williams -- doesn't score
Chimera-Mojo-Wilson -- inconsistent

Ovi-Backstrom-Oshie -- works (at least during games that matter)
Bura-Kuzy-Williams -- works, but can't be relied on
Chimera-Mojo-Wilson -- inconsistent

Ovi-Backstrom-Beagle -- effective, but no scoring
Bura-Kuzy-Oshie -- not enough scoring
Chimera-Mojo-Williams -- not enough scoring

There is the potential with the current roster for some decent flexibility. For example all of these individual lines worked well at times:

• Ovi-Mojo-Oshie
• Chimera-Backstrom-Williams
• Ovi-Backstrom-Mojo
• Ovi-Kuzy-Bura (in certain situations)

The question is how do you then string together a top nine that works from that? I would have tried:

Ovi-Mojo-Oshie
Burakovsky-Kuzy-Williams
Chimera-Backstrom-Wilson

But if you find the second line isn't working, what do you do? Bura+Backstrom doesn't get you very far, neither does Kuzy+Oshie. And if you have to replace Wilson because he isn't doing anything, you end up with Beagle in the top nine (eliminating any fourth line output whatsoever) or Richards on the third line (good bye top nine). We need to plan for Beagle and Wilson to be fourth liners, if we can, so that if we do need to move people about you're not crippling your other lines.

And I would be much more tempted to move Kuzy to the wing during games/stretches where he can't Center a winning line. I'd rather try:

Ovi-Backstrom-Kuzy
Bura-Mojo-Williams/Wilson
Chimera-Beagle-Williams/Wilson

...than resign yourself to no second/third line output.

Ideally we want to find a second Mojo - someone with a bit of experience who can score 20g/20a, who ideally plays second or third line but is capable on the top line, can play RW and LW, but preferably is a PKer not a PPer. We need a scenario where you can feasibly bench Burakovsky, or move him to the third or fourth line, because he's struggling - not have a situation where he (or anyone else) is still your best shot even in death.

 

[third man in]

Possibly. Carlson is good - but let's not forget that in his career he has 160 ES points in 450+ NHL games. 7 seasons in the NHL and has 40+ points only ONCE.

Carlson is a good D guy - but I don't know if a guy who puts up 40 points/season is going to warrant 7.5 - 8+ million/season - and that's what JC could and probably will get next year.

I think replacing Carlson is easier than ever adding a guy like Hall personally.

The 40 pt marker is kind of ****** because Carlson has been in the high 30's multiple times without PP time. Since he's gotten PP time he had 55 two seasons ago and was on a better pace before injury last year. He's solid defensively eats minutes and is just now entering his prime. No way I trade that really for anyone, not to mention if we traded him for a forward the D would be hot garbage again.

 

[RandyHolt]

Random Prediction... next playoffs we will see:

Alzner Nisky | Orlov Carlson | Orpik Bowey

 

[HecticGlow]

Random Prediction... next playoffs we will see:

Alzner Nisky | Orlov Carlson | Orpik Bowey

I don't see this. As good as Alzner-Niskanen were this season, I can see them being split up in order to get Orlov top-4 minutes if that's what they want to achieve, because Niskanen is a more consistent, lower risk RD to cover for Orlov's offensive 'events', Alzner can be Carlson's equivalent, and Carlson's status as a 1D isn't jeopardised by being partnered with Orlov.

I also think Schmidt will be better next season, and likely more defensively capable and consistent than Orlov, and therefore is more likely to be Carlson's stay-at-home buddy than Orlov. And Bowey isn't likely to be ready by next playoffs - think of how much Schmidt and Orlov struggled, and both of them are much more experienced at pro hockey than Madison. If one of Orlov or Schmidt aren't in the lineup next postseason, it's because one of them (Orlov) has been traded ahead of an expansion draft, or because a proven D has been brought in at the TDL. Or both...

GMBM is talking of Orlov being able to reduce Orpik's minutes in the future, but he's also spoken of not knowing what the rules are for the expansion draft and having little idea what he'll do. Can anyone here really see him protecting Orlov over Carlson, Niskanen or Alzner?

 

[HecticGlow]

Without intending any offense, I do wonder about the wishful thinking on this board with regards to Vrana, Bowey et al. Most people here argue Orlov and Schmidt weren't experienced enough, and therefore good enough, to handle third pair duties by themselves. Burakovsky, Wilson and Kuznetsov have been defended on the basis of inexperience, age and/or immaturity in their development.

What is it about Vrana, Barber and Bowey's single season of AHL play that leads people to think they're ready to play (to a contender-team standard) in the NHL already?

 

[twabby]

Without intending any offense, I do wonder about the wishful thinking on this board with regards to Vrana, Bowey et al. Most people here argue Orlov and Schmidt weren't experienced enough, and therefore good enough, to handle third pair duties by themselves. Burakovsky, Wilson and Kuznetsov have been defended on the basis of inexperience, age and/or immaturity in their development.

What is it about Vrana, Barber and Bowey's single season of AHL play that leads people to think they're ready to play (to a contender-team standard) in the NHL already?

Agreed. There's nothing wrong with thinking these players are likely going to be pieces going forward, but expecting them to produce next season or even the year after is a little optimistic.

 

[g00n]

I wouldn't expect more than one rookie on the playoff roster next year, if any, barring massive injury issues.