Prospect Info: 95th overall (2017): Vancouver selects D Jack Rathbone | Will he sign?

[zcaptain]

I'll be a bit surprised if he signs here, at this point.

First of all, with the 20-21 season up in the air, it's probably the safe decision just to go back to Harvard and finish his degree. And it's really easy to walk once you make that decision.

But the big problem is Quinn Hughes. If you're a LHS smallish PP QB type prospect, the worst organization in the NHL to be in is the Vancouver Canucks. The team is set for the next decade with the best young LH offensive defender in the NHL.

If I was his agent, I'd have huge issues with recommending he sign here. What will get Rathbone into the NHL is his PP skills, and we don't need those. And what will get him paid is scoring points, and he isn't going to get that opportunity here.

Maybe you should check on what you are talking about........jeesh!

Rathbone is a 2 way player with offensive upside, not as good as Fox, but a better Defensive player than Fox

So if you look at the success of Fox and Marino, both who were at Harvard, at the same time as Rathbone (but a year earlier), Rathbone look pretty darn good, as somewhere in the middle. Not that Fox did a pretty good job at Defense as well. Marino the same.

So how is it that we don't want Rathbone? I mean, as a prospect, he looks pretty damned good. And as for the Canucks needing him, well "IF" he turned out to be a #2, well, he would be set. Here or anywhere....

So, I am not sure what your point is, other than if he says at Harvard for another year, he can walk.....we that is the story of each and every 4+ draft year player.

And why would he not want to play on the Canucks? Top 10 U25 team.

Just asking!

 

[MS]

Maybe you should check on what you are talking about........jeesh!

Rathbone is a 2 way player with offensive upside, not as good as Fox, but a better Defensive player than Fox

So if you look at the success of Fox and Marino, both who were at Harvard, at the same time as Rathbone (but a year earlier), Rathbone look pretty darn good, as somewhere in the middle. Not that Fox did a pretty good job at Defense as well. Marino the same.

So how is it that we don't want Rathbone? I mean, as a prospect, he looks pretty damned good. And as for the Canucks needing him, well "IF" he turned out to be a #2, well, he would be set. Here or anywhere....

So, I am not sure what your point is, other than if he says at Harvard for another year, he can walk.....we that is the story of each and every 4+ draft year player.

And why would he not want to play on the Canucks? Top 10 U25 team.

Just asking!

Where did I say we didn’t want Rathbone? Obviously we’d sign him tomorrow if we could.

I’m saying that if I was his agent, I would recommend that he didn’t sign in Vancouver because the presence of Hughes will *severely* limit his opportunities and earning potential.

 

[Diversification]

It's telling that a number of schools (the UC system and Cambridge) have already confirmed that classes will be online for the first semester. Harvard will err on the side of caution. They already demonstrated that by being one of the first schools to shutdown and kick everyone out of campus housing.

Even if classes resume in some limited capacity, varsity sports will not be a priority because: 1) It's Harvard. Their reputation for being science-based in their decision making completely overshadows the priorities of their sports programs; 2) It's a contact sport - so one of the last to resume and 3) shuttering ECAC hockey won't even make a dent in their endowment.

Rathbone is in a tough spot if he wants to wait it out to sign with another team. He has virtually no leverage, and lacks a viable alternative unless he's hoping another Northeast program like BC will re-open and he can transfer over.

My guess - and it's only that - for the delay in signing Tryamkin and Rathbone is that the dust hasn't settled in terms of the cap and compliance buyouts and other mechanisms. Most players will be in a hold pattern until that's resolved.

 

[zcaptain]

Where did I say we didn’t want Rathbone? Obviously we’d sign him tomorrow if we could.

I’m saying that if I was his agent, I would recommend that he didn’t sign in Vancouver because the presence of Hughes will *severely* limit his opportunities and earning potential.

Sorry MS....I must have read it wrong......my apoligies

I do disagree with you, though

IMO, Hughes is prcisely why you sign here
Imagine your potential to play alongside Hughes you whole career
or
Conversally, to play second pairing, for 10 years
because you don't face as good of opposion

I don't see Hughes as direct competition
Now, again
Why would you not be saddled to a top 10 U25 roster?

In saying all that
I was reading further last night and came up with this
Fox.........Marino........Rathbone
I am sure they are all friends and they talk

Neither of the first 2, signed with their draft clubs
Which makes me more nervous than anything else

Real nervous!

That and his family issues!

 

[MS]

Sorry MS....I must have read it wrong......my apoligies

I do disagree with you, though

IMO, Hughes is prcisely why you sign here
Imagine your potential to play alongside Hughes you whole career
or
Conversally, to play second pairing, for 10 years
because you don't face as good of opposion

I don't see Hughes as direct competition
Now, again
Why would you not be saddled to a top 10 U25 roster?

In saying all that
I was reading further last night and came up with this
Fox.........Marino........Rathbone
I am sure they are all friends and they talk

Neither of the first 2, signed with their draft clubs
Which makes me more nervous than anything else

Real nervous!

That and his family issues!

He won't play 'alongside' Hughes. He'll play behind Hughes. And he's also starting out behind Edler and Myers for PP time, and competing with Juolevi and Rafferty. It's not a good situation to break in for a player of his skillset (unlike 3 or 4 years ago when we had garbage like Philip Larkin on the roster to try and add puck skills to the blueline). With these college guys who are already 21-22 years old when they turn pro, there is a very short window to crack a roster and make an impact before you become typecast as yesterday's news, and you want to put yourself in the best situation to crack an NHL roster quickly.

Defender production (and by extension, pay) is driven mostly by PP minutes and usage. With Hughes here, Rathbone will never get the minutes or offensive-zone starts he needs to rack up high-level production. It will also make it much harder to make the team in the first place, given that the team badly needs defensive defenders (which he isn't at all) and given that his PP skills are redundant.

Conversely, if he waits a year (through an NHL season which might not even happen anyway), he could choose a team like Edmonton which is absolutely frothing for a skill defender to play on the PP next to McDavid. Or sign in a place like NJ or NYI which is close to his family and disabled brother, and also doesn't have an established PP QB.

I like the guy as a prospect and hope he signs here, but I wouldn't blame him for a second if he looked at the situation and decided to look elsewhere. And if I were his agent, that's definitely what I'd be advising.

And, as you say, his former teammates Marino and Fox have fared very well by doing this exact thing.

 

[iceburg]

IMO losing an NCAA player to free agency happens so rarely that it's hard to even muster up the care to think about it. Sure, it could happen, and I'll concede that it is even more likely with Harvard grads. But this also happens with European players (eg Frederik Andersen) and major junior players (eg Ryan Mantha). As of today, Rathbone is a prospect in the Canucks organization, and a good one at that. Until he is signed by an NHL team that's how I'll view him and consider him part of the organization's future.

 

[VanJack]

If NCAA hockey shuts down for the season, there'll be a ton of players in even worse shape than Rathbone....think of all those Canadian players, including a number from the BCJHL, who've earned hockey scholarships and were looking forward to starting their seasons in the fall south of the border.

They could all be sitting out the season as well. Of course the seasons of junior hockey leagues in both Canada and the U.S. could be in jeopardy as well, since they can't survive without fans in the building.

The only hope right now might be the discovery of some sort of vaccine by the end of the year, and maybe some of these leagues could start up again in January, 2021.

 

[Diversification]

If NCAA hockey shuts down for the season, there'll be a ton of players in even worse shape than Rathbone....think of all those Canadian players, including a number from the BCJHL, who've earned hockey scholarships and were looking forward to starting their seasons in the fall south of the border.

They could all be sitting out the season as well. Of course the seasons of junior hockey leagues in both Canada and the U.S. could be in jeopardy as well, since they can't survive without fans in the building.

The only hope right now might be the discovery of some sort of vaccine by the end of the year, and maybe some of these leagues could start up again in January, 2021.

That's definitely true. I only meant that it makes the prospect of Rathbone becoming a free agent a less likely outcome.

I've been CC'd in on a lot of emails deliberating how to re-open and whether in-person classes can resume in any capacity. Whether there will be contact team sports sports resuming is just not even on anyone's radar right now. Not saying it won't somehow happen, but at this point, I wouldn't bet on it.

As for vaccines, end of year is a pipe dream. Even if Moderna's mRNA vaccine (by far the fastest option) clears phases 2 and 3 by late summer/early fall, it will take months to scale up production to the level needed for wide scale distribution. You're looking at February or March if a bunch of moving parts happen to align.

 

[Fatass]

It's telling that a number of schools (the UC system and Cambridge) have already confirmed that classes will be online for the first semester. Harvard will err on the side of caution. They already demonstrated that by being one of the first schools to shutdown and kick everyone out of campus housing.

Even if classes resume in some limited capacity, varsity sports will not be a priority because: 1) It's Harvard. Their reputation for being science-based in their decision making completely overshadows the priorities of their sports programs; 2) It's a contact sport - so one of the last to resume and 3) shuttering ECAC hockey won't even make a dent in their endowment.

Rathbone is in a tough spot if he wants to wait it out to sign with another team. He has virtually no leverage, and lacks a viable alternative unless he's hoping another Northeast program like BC will re-open and he can transfer over.

My guess - and it's only that - for the delay in signing Tryamkin and Rathbone is that the dust hasn't settled in terms of the cap and compliance buyouts and other mechanisms. Most players will be in a hold pattern until that's resolved.

The Bone will sign this summer. He can’t be missing a season. He’s an ELC, so that’s only going to help our cap problems. Tree we can’t afford.

 

[VanJack]

The Bone will sign this summer. He can’t be missing a season. He’s an ELC, so that’s only going to help our cap problems. Tree we can’t afford.

Have to agree. He and his agent have to decide whether he's a pro hockey player or not...and the time is now. Besides, if Harvard goes to distance education, he can always finish his degree on-line anyway.

 

[zcaptain]

He won't play 'alongside' Hughes. He'll play behind Hughes. And he's also starting out behind Edler and Myers for PP time, and competing with Juolevi and Rafferty. It's not a good situation to break in for a player of his skillset (unlike 3 or 4 years ago when we had garbage like Philip Larkin on the roster to try and add puck skills to the blueline). With these college guys who are already 21-22 years old when they turn pro, there is a very short window to crack a roster and make an impact before you become typecast as yesterday's news, and you want to put yourself in the best situation to crack an NHL roster quickly.

Defender production (and by extension, pay) is driven mostly by PP minutes and usage. With Hughes here, Rathbone will never get the minutes or offensive-zone starts he needs to rack up high-level production. It will also make it much harder to make the team in the first place, given that the team badly needs defensive defenders (which he isn't at all) and given that his PP skills are redundant.

Conversely, if he waits a year (through an NHL season which might not even happen anyway), he could choose a team like Edmonton which is absolutely frothing for a skill defender to play on the PP next to McDavid. Or sign in a place like NJ or NYI which is close to his family and disabled brother, and also doesn't have an established PP QB.

I like the guy as a prospect and hope he signs here, but I wouldn't blame him for a second if he looked at the situation and decided to look elsewhere. And if I were his agent, that's definitely what I'd be advising.

And, as you say, his former teammates Marino and Fox have fared very well by doing this exact thing.

Nah, I don't buy that arguement
Hughes plays both sides
And very well
"IF" Rathbone is good enough to play powerplay
Hughes switches sides and Rathbone plays
As for Edler...he's got one more year on his contract
Not sure if we sign him after that
I guess it depends on "IF" there is someone to take his place
As for Myers........
Meh, I am not sold on that one at all.......
It is not that he is so good, but rather there is no one else
Does Rathbone believe in himself or what?
IMO, he will play immediately, or soon thereafter
I don't think the power play argument is a good one
I am more worried whether he signs, period
aka
Fox, Marino history...................
Family........................................
4th year, pick your team............
School.........................................

We will see

 

[bandwagonesque]

Where did I say we didn’t want Rathbone? Obviously we’d sign him tomorrow if we could.

I’m saying that if I was his agent, I would recommend that he didn’t sign in Vancouver because the presence of Hughes will *severely* limit his opportunities and earning potential.

Can you identify any history of this happening?

 

[F A N]

I’m saying that if I was his agent, I would recommend that he didn’t sign in Vancouver because the presence of Hughes will *severely* limit his opportunities and earning potential.

That would be terrible advice. If Rathbone is NHL ready and able to crack the Canucks roster full time, not only would your advice result in Rathbone foregoing one year of NHL salary, in the long term it's probably not good for him. Players who star for bad teams may make good money but it's hardly good for career development. If Rathbone was a stud franchise Dman then it probably wouldn't matter too much, but playing behind Hughes / on the same team as Hughes is only going to help a player like Rathbone get better.

Besides, things can change quickly in the NHL. Seth Jones joined a team with Shea Weber, Roman Jossi, and Ryan Ellis. He was traded before his ELC expired.

 

[Lindgren]

Surely Rathbone's decision will be heavily influenced by his thoughts about where, if anywhere, he can play hockey beginning in the fall. Many predict Harvard's season will be canceled. Will the AHL have a season? If he has a chance to sign with the Canucks and play in the AHL, and the alternative is sitting out for a year, I think he'll sign. Hell, he might even sign and go to Europe if he has that opportunity but nothing in North America. (I'm assuming he won't be able to crack the Canucks line-up, as serious as their problems on defence are bound to be.)

 

[MS]

Can you identify any history of this happening?

Literally the last two defenders to come out of Harvard (Fox and Marino) did the exact same thing.

As for the principle I'm talking about, how did Tyson Barrie do when he went to a team that had Morgan Rielly as the offensive alpha? Going to Toronto in that trade has cost him $millions relative to if he'd been a UFA a year earlier.

That would be terrible advice. If Rathbone is NHL ready and able to crack the Canucks roster full time, not only would your advice result in Rathbone foregoing one year of NHL salary, in the long term it's probably not good for him. Players who star for bad teams may make good money but it's hardly good for career development. If Rathbone was a stud franchise Dman then it probably wouldn't matter too much, but playing behind Hughes / on the same team as Hughes is only going to help a player like Rathbone get better.

Besides, things can change quickly in the NHL. Seth Jones joined a team with Shea Weber, Roman Jossi, and Ryan Ellis. He was traded before his ELC expired.

You honestly think Rathbone has a strong chance of cracking the NHL roster this year on this team? What, is the team going to carry 6 offensive defenders who can play on the PP and nobody who can play defense? Keep in mind that the team is strongly hinting that Brogan Rafferty (who is on a one-way deal) is going to make the team next year, and he's another pure skill/PP guy.

Seth Jones signing in Nashville really held him back. As soon as he got out of Nashville, he immediately ramped up from a 19 minute guy to a 24 minute guy. Also, keep in mind that Jones was an automatic NHLer and only 19 when he broke into the league. Rathbone isn't a blue-chipper and is a few years older - he doesn't have the same time to wait for things to happen. He needs to crack the NHL quickly.

There is only so much icetime to go around, and - again - this is literally the worst organization in the NHL for a prospect like Rathbone to sign for. They already have the best young LS PP/offensive defender in the NHL in Hughes, and the other main LS defender is another offensive/PP guy in Edler. Plus you have Rafferty and Juolevi in the picture ... yes Rafferty is RHS, but he'll still be competing for PP minutes and fill a skill role.

And this is not an anti-Benning thing. I hope he signs and I'm sure they're trying. I'm purely looking at this from Rathbone's perspective. This is not a good situation for him to be walking in to.

Additionally, keep in mind that he has a disabled brother at home and he already delayed going to Harvard to spend more time close to his family. If he waits a year, he can position himself right back next to his family in NYI/NJ.

 

[tradervik]

If Rathbone wants to play in the NHL and Harvard cancels its athletics programs, he'd be foolish to turn down a contract offer from the Canucks. Sitting out a year with no hockey is not a good thing, just ask Patrick McNally. Maybe he won't make the NHL roster and maybe there will be no AHL season either but at least he'll have a contract and the Canucks will find a way to continue his development.

 

[F A N]

You honestly think Rathbone has a strong chance of cracking the NHL roster this year on this team? What, is the team going to carry 6 offensive defenders who can play on the PP and nobody who can play defense? Keep in mind that the team is strongly hinting that Brogan Rafferty (who is on a one-way deal) is going to make the team next year, and he's another pure skill/PP guy.

The point you made was that if you were Rathbone's agent you would advise him to not sign with the Canucks because Hughes would limit his opportunities and earning potential. If I was his agent and I honestly do not think he has a strong chance of cracking the NHL roster next season then it comes down to assessing the odds of Rathbone playing games for the Canucks towards the second half of next season and earning a full time spot the following season vs the odds of Rathbone spending the entire season in the AHL It would be up to Rathbone but if I honestly do not think Rathbone is NHL ready I would probably advise him to stay in college and then evaluate his options later. That advice would have nothing to do with Quinn Hughes.

Your advice is terrible if you honestly don't think Rathbone has a chance of cracking the NHL roster next season because you're basing your advice on the presence of Quinn Hughes. It's completely simple minded.

There is only so much icetime to go around, and - again - this is literally the worst organization in the NHL for a prospect like Rathbone to sign for. They already have the best young LS PP/offensive defender in the NHL in Hughes, and the other main LS defender is another offensive/PP guy in Edler. Plus you have Rafferty and Juolevi in the picture ... yes Rafferty is RHS, but he'll still be competing for PP minutes and fill a skill role.

And this is not an anti-Benning thing. I hope he signs and I'm sure they're trying. I'm purely looking at this from Rathbone's perspective. This is not a good situation for him to be walking in to.

I agree. But Edler has one year left on his contract. Again, if you were his agent and you honestly don't think he's NHL ready then the presence of Hughes is pretty much irrelevant. If he makes the NHL it's going to be that of a bottom pairing Dman. It's not a bad idea to have your client go into an environment where he's not expected to be a top 4 Dman right away.

If like you said I don't think my client has a strong chance of cracking the NHL roster next season and he's not a bluechip prospect then the presence of Quinn Hughes is the least of my worries and concerns.

Additionally, keep in mind that he has a disabled brother at home and he already delayed going to Harvard to spend more time close to his family. If he waits a year, he can position himself right back next to his family in NYI/NJ.

Right but what does that have to do with the presence of Quinn Hughes?

 

[ChilliBilly]

Where did I say we didn’t want Rathbone? Obviously we’d sign him tomorrow if we could.

I’m saying that if I was his agent, I would recommend that he didn’t sign in Vancouver because the presence of Hughes will *severely* limit his opportunities and earning potential.

Disagree. What would be great is to sign him and then ship him to Edm with a salary dump. Sadly, i think everyone is looking for salary dumps right now. Will be interesting to see what happens to the poorer teams if they start up the year with no fans. Aquillini isn't going bankrupt any time soon, but you have to believe Ott Ariz etc are going to be in real trouble.

I have friends that have lost $1 M in the last 3 months. But thats because they are starting from a place where $1 M isn't going to change their lives. We are lucky ourselves to have most of our savings not in the stock market, and our income is all pension plans. We are probably only down $50 - 100 K, better than most. And its not like we were going to be cashing those things in any time soon.

 

[VanJack]

I think what might be also weighing on Rathbone and his agent is the fate of the AHL. There's no way they can start up in the fall playing in empty buildings. So the NHL teams have another expensive thing to deal with--whether or not they're willing to subsidize the AHL teams they own, to get them up and running.

The problem for a player like Rathbone, is if he doesn't make the Canucks, where can he play?

 

[Diversification]

I think what might be also weighing on Rathbone and his agent is the fate of the AHL. There's no way they can start up in the fall playing in empty buildings. So the NHL teams have another expensive thing to deal with--whether or not they're willing to subsidize the AHL teams they own, to get them up and running.

The problem for a player like Rathbone, is if he doesn't make the Canucks, where can he play?

Would the AHL play to empty stadiums though? If I were the stratify the likelihood of reopening for the various leagues, it'd be AHL, CHL, NHL, NCAA. AHL teams are almost all located in low population density locations. Same with the CHL.

My guess is that there will be some sort of AHL season with a maximum cut off for attendance. Same goes for Major Juniors. NHL might be trickier, but with TV, I think they'll make it work somehow.

NCAA is the least likely. They have to consider the health of all of the students and that their primary mission is education.

 

[Luck 6]

I had a dream last night where they signed Rathbone and played him Game 1 of the playoffs. They dressed him as a forward and he scored a hat trick the first game. I literally just remembered as I came to the board.

.....Who the heck dreams that? Unless, it’s somehow true.....?

 

[604]

Disagree. What would be great is to sign him and then ship him to Edm with a salary dump. Sadly, i think everyone is looking for salary dumps right now. Will be interesting to see what happens to the poorer teams if they start up the year with no fans. Aquillini isn't going bankrupt any time soon, but you have to believe Ott Ariz etc are going to be in real trouble.

I have friends that have lost $1 M in the last 3 months. But thats because they are starting from a place where $1 M isn't going to change their lives. We are lucky ourselves to have most of our savings not in the stock market, and our income is all pension plans. We are probably only down $50 - 100 K, better than most. And its not like we were going to be cashing those things in any time soon.

There aren't many teams with an easier path to be a top 4 dman in the next couple of years.

Edler is old and a UFA the season after next, Tanev is old and a UFA this summer, Myers isn't very good. Stecher was playing top 4 somehow by the end of the year.

All there is is Hughes. If you are a high talent dman, you see Vancouver as an opportunity to move up quickly and potentially have a competent guy in front of you to eat the tough match-ups while you are figuring things out.

 

[ChilliBilly]

There aren't many teams with an easier path to be a top 4 dman in the next couple of years.

Edler is old and a UFA the season after next, Tanev is old and a UFA this summer, Myers isn't very good. Stecher was playing top 4 somehow by the end of the year.

All there is is Hughes. If you are a high talent dman, you see Vancouver as an opportunity to move up quickly and potentially have a competent guy in front of you to eat the tough match-ups while you are figuring things out.

I think it is important to add Tryamkin into the mix. We are going to need some big bodies to balance out the great smaller skilled players we have.

 

[VanJack]

Rathbone is already a supreme offensive d-man, albeit undersized. My only question is whether an NHL team can afford to employ three sub 6-foot d-man in its top six? Hughes is able to make up for his weight and height with world-class skill; but Rathbone and Stecher are both undersized.

I think you might be able to get by with two, but three? Can't really see it.

 

[Nabrules]

Rathbone is already a supreme offensive d-man, albeit undersized. My only question is whether an NHL team can afford to employ three sub 6-foot d-man in its top six? Hughes is able to make up for his weight and height with world-class skill; but Rathbone and Stecher are both undersized.

I think you might be able to get by with two, but three? Can't really see it.

Rathbone honestly isn’t THAT undersized since he’s listed at 5’11 190 now. Should play closer to 200 as well.

also I don’t think Stecher will be on the team in the long term. decent enough dman but he’s bottom pair guy who can fill in higher at times, those guys are usually replaced every few years.