Prospect Info: 95th overall (2017): Vancouver selects D Jack Rathbone | Will he sign?

[VanJack]

Sometimes you find your future NHL d-men in the strangest places...but after watching Rathbone , Woo and even a kid like Utunen in development camp, and seeing the highlight reel packages on Hughes, suddenly the situation on the blueline doesn't look nearly as dire. With Juolevi, Chatfield and Brisebois marinating in the minors and the potential return of Tryamkin from the KHL, defense is looking solid at least from a prospect standpoint.

 

[Angry Little Elf]

Kid looks great. Honestly, our NCAA scouts are fantastic.

 

[ziploc]

Sometimes you find your future NHL d-men in the strangest places...but after watching Rathbone , Woo and even a kid like Utunen in development camp, and seeing the highlight reel packages on Hughes, suddenly the situation on the blueline doesn't look nearly as dire. With Juolevi, Chatfield and Brisebois marinating in the minors and the potential return of Tryamkin from the KHL, defense is looking solid at least from a prospect standpoint.

Canucks 2020/2021

Hughes Woo
Juolevi Tryamkin
Rathbone Utunen
(Brisebois)

All of these guys are bound to pan out. Now we play the waiting game.

(Being sarcastic obviously, but I agree that it is nice to at least have something in the cupboard.)

 

[GetFocht]

Probability of playing in the NHL:

100% - Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin (we are going to have a killer left side D)
80% - Woo
50% - Rathbone, Utunen, Brisebois, Brassard

 

[Black Noise]

Probability of playing in the NHL:

100% - Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin (we are going to have a killer left side D)
80% - Woo
50% - Rathbone, Utunen, Brisebois, Brassard

Lmao what?
You know that late 1sts have around a 50% chance at playing in the NHL historically.

Yet somehow Woo has an 80% chance, equivalent to basically a top 15 pick, and our late rounders have the same chance as late 1st rounders?

Blantant homerism at its finest.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

Probability of playing in the NHL:

100% - Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin (we are going to have a killer left side D)
80% - Woo
50% - Rathbone, Utunen, Brisebois, Brassard

So scientific. Please tell me more.

 

[M2Beezy]

Lmao what?
You know that late 1sts have around a 50% chance at playing in the NHL historically.

Yet somehow Woo has an 80% chance, equivalent to basically a top 15 pick, and our late rounders have the same chance as late 1st rounders?

Blantant homerism at its finest.

Well hes kinda right with a guy like Woo cause his game will translate to the NHL. I feel pretty confident he will make the NHL and will start climbing the rankings in redrafts

 

[Peen]

Probability of playing in the NHL:

100% - Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin (we are going to have a killer left side D)
80% - Woo
50% - Rathbone, Utunen, Brisebois, Brassard

That's a 90%, 50%, and 25% group at best.

And Tryamkin is a 0 because he won't play one more game for us.

 

[VanJack]

That's a 90%, 50%, and 25% group at best.

And Tryamkin is a 0 because he won't play one more game for us.

Based on the current KHL salary structure, if Tryamkin plays his entire career there he'll be short at least $20 million in NHL earnings. Maybe he really is one of those guys who doesn't give a damn about the money. But I'm not buying it. He'll be back at just the point where kids like Hughes, Juolevi, Rathbone and Woo are getting really good.

 

[F A N]

Based on the current KHL salary structure, if Tryamkin plays his entire career there he'll be short at least $20 million in NHL earnings. Maybe he really is one of those guys who doesn't give a damn about the money. But I'm not buying it. He'll be back at just the point where kids like Hughes, Juolevi, Rathbone and Woo are getting really good.

How do you come up with this figure? And I don't think it's as simple as not giving a damn about the money. I bet there are quite a few of us here who would turn down an offer to move to Russia and live there for a few years even if it means double the money.

Where Tryamkin is playing, you can buy a similar sized home for less than the minimum down payment in Vancouver. Obviously, a lot depends on whether Tryamkin and his wife is happy and whether he is in fact getting his paycheques in Russia. If he is and he's also collecting bonuses, the money can be quite good.

 

[CanaFan]

Probability of playing in the NHL:

100% - Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin (we are going to have a killer left side D)
80% - Woo
50% - Rathbone, Utunen, Brisebois, Brassard

Woo is 80%? Jesus man, that’s higher than for a top 10 pick. Meanwhile a 4th, 5th, 3rd, and 7th round pick each have a 50/50 chance to be NHLers?

What world do you live in? And how many dozens of Stanley Cups have the Canucks won in this magical world of all things working out perfectly?

 

[GetFocht]

Woo is 80%? Jesus man, that’s higher than for a top 10 pick. Meanwhile a 4th, 5th, 3rd, and 7th round pick each have a 50/50 chance to be NHLers?

What world do you live in? And how many dozens of Stanley Cups have the Canucks won in this magical world of all things working out perfectly?

you were saying the exact same thing when I was talking about Pettersson after he was drafted. Your opinion, in my eyes, is lower than pond scum so no need to waste your time.

 

[GetFocht]

Lmao what?
You know that late 1sts have around a 50% chance at playing in the NHL historically.

Yet somehow Woo has an 80% chance, equivalent to basically a top 15 pick, and our late rounders have the same chance as late 1st rounders?

Blantant homerism at its finest.

Lets see, Hughes if he turns pro will means he plays NHL games next season, Juolevi will 100% play NHL games next season, and Tryamkin has already played. I personally like Woo and he has the skillset to at least be a bottom pairing defenceman. The rest are a flip of coin, they either make it or they don't.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Juolevi “marinating”
Tryamkin coming back

I need to get whatever you are on.

Sometimes you find your future NHL d-men in the strangest places...but after watching Rathbone , Woo and even a kid like Utunen in development camp, and seeing the highlight reel packages on Hughes, suddenly the situation on the blueline doesn't look nearly as dire. With Juolevi, Chatfield and Brisebois marinating in the minors and the potential return of Tryamkin from the KHL, defense is looking solid at least from a prospect standpoint.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

You realize there are ACTUAL STATS on this ?

Juolevi / Hughs are 80% chance of playing more than 50 NHL games.

Woo is 44% of playing 50 or more NHL games

Rathbone is 20% chance of playing 50 or more NHL games.

Utunen is 18% chance of playing 50 or more NHL games.

Tryamkin is never coming back.

Youre either being sarcastic or are going to be sorely disappointed.

Probability of playing in the NHL:

100% - Hughes, Juolevi, Tryamkin (we are going to have a killer left side D)
80% - Woo
50% - Rathbone, Utunen, Brisebois, Brassard

 

[DonnyNucker]

You realize there are ACTUAL STATS on this ?

Juolevi / Hughs are 80% chance of playing more than 50 NHL games.

Woo is 44% of playing 50 or more NHL games

Rathbone is 20% chance of playing 50 or more NHL games.

Utunen is 18% chance of playing 50 or more NHL games.

Tryamkin is never coming back.

Youre either being sarcastic or are going to be sorely disappointed.

You are certainly right that he is wrong about the probability of these kids making the NHL but these stats are also based on data over the last 30 years. Times have changed. The scouting, and training programs for prospects are so much more extensive. Hockey has become big business. Drafting is becoming safer in recent years hence the increased value of picks (cap aside).

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Incorrect. My numbers (from TSN) are from the last 10 years.

You are certainly right that he is wrong about the probability of these kids making the NHL but these stats are also based on data over the last 30 years. Times have changed. The scouting, and training programs for prospects are so much more extensive. Hockey has become big business. Drafting is becoming safer in recent years hence the increased value of picks (cap aside).

 

[DonnyNucker]

Incorrect. My numbers (from TSN) are from the last 10 years.

Ok, fair enough. I’m just saying busts with high picks are becoming less likely. Look at a top 10 list from 20 years ago. I’m not actually going to look but I suspect there are more busts than NHL players
Edit. I looked. Ugly lol
1998 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

 

[CanaFan]

you were saying the exact same thing when I was talking about Pettersson after he was drafted. Your opinion, in my eyes, is lower than pond scum so no need to waste your time.

Regardless of what you think of my opinion, your take on these players chances is delusional.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

What?!?!?!

The 1998 draft had 23 of the 27 players , play more than 50 games. Very few busts. That’s 85% of the players drafted in the first round had NHL careers.

Not sure the point you’re trying to make?

1998 draft- 4 busts


2010 draft - 4 busts
2011 draft - 6 busts (ours was 1)
2012 draft - 4 busts
2013 draft - 7 busts
2014 drafts - 6 busts.

The chances of drafting a bust is actually higher now, not lower.

Ok, fair enough. I’m just saying busts with high picks are becoming less likely. Look at a top 10 list from 20 years ago. I’m not actually going to look but I suspect there are more busts than NHL players
Edit. I looked. Ugly lol
1998 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

 

[CanaFan]

Lets see, Hughes if he turns pro will means he plays NHL games next season, Juolevi will 100% play NHL games next season, and Tryamkin has already played. I personally like Woo and he has the skillset to at least be a bottom pairing defenceman. The rest are a flip of coin, they either make it or they don't.

You actually think this is how probabilities work?

50% (you make it) or 50% (you don’t)?

Do you think your odds to be struck by lightning are also 50% (you get struck) or 50% (you dont)?

Actually, it really wouldn’t surprise me if that is how you think it works. Would explain a lot.

 

[DonnyNucker]

What?!?!?!

The 1998 draft had 23 of the 27 players , play more than 50 games. Very few busts. That’s 85% of the players drafted in the first round had NHL careers.

Not sure the point you’re trying to make?

1998 draft- 4 busts


2010 draft - 4 busts
2011 draft - 6 busts (ours was 1)
2012 draft - 4 busts
2013 draft - 7 busts
2014 drafts - 6 busts.

The chances of drafting a bust is actually higher now, not lower.

I’ll dig into this tomorrow. But at first glance I find 50 NHL games as a strange gauge of whether or not a first round pick is a bust. 200 games is the normal benchmark. What article or data are you specifically referring to?

 

[Tv9924]

You actually think this is how probabilities work?

50% (you make it) or 50% (you don’t)?

Do you think your odds to be struck by lightning are also 50% (you get struck) or 50% (you dont)?

Actually, it really wouldn’t surprise me if that is how you think it works. Would explain a lot.

My year old cousin has a 50% chance to make the NHL, dude. Can't miss prospect.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

I think Rathbone's chances of playing in the NHL are better than his chances of playing with the Canucks.

 

[Tv9924]

What are the expectations for Rathbone this year in terms of production?