Speculation: 90% of the league's cap dollars already spent and teams trying to shed salary

[BruinsBtn]

This is starting to feel like a slow-motion trainwreck.

 

[NatoGhost]

The only thing corona did was stop the cap from going up 3mil. This is entirely an issue of GMs constantly over spending with zero foresight.

And cause owners to lose millions so now they dont want to spend as much as well. Especially for cash strapped owners.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

This is starting to feel like a slow-motion trainwreck.

I 100% agree. Its like the NHL is going through the motions all the while knowing whats coming. Makes me think of the orchestra playing as the Titanic goes down.

 

[axlrose87]

You really think players will not report to the ahl and give up millions and end their careers?
Seems ridiculous to even consider.

 

[BruinsBtn]

I 100% agree. Its like the NHL is going through the motions all the while knowing whats coming. Makes me think of the orchestra playing as the Titanic goes down.

I think there are a few teams and players that are absolutely in denial and not realizing that by sitting on their hands, it gets worse for them every day.

 

[deckercky]

Which is probably why hall went to Buffalo And why Petro could be Going to NJ or another team with space.

I think the most interesting and likely most lucrative option for both hall and petro is to sign 1 year contracts this season, then to sign large contracts with Seattle next season (Seattle wont be weighed down by bad contracts, and will want to make an immediate impact like Vegas did).

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

You really think players will not report to the ahl and give up millions and end their careers?
Seems ridiculous to even consider.

Yep riding a bus and being an AHL superstar is no big deal. Matt Moulson did it for years as did Alzner, most of these guys aren’t gonna work a day past 35 so squeezing every dollar counts. Also, no escrow in the AHL

 

[tenken00]

I dont know. I am not there yet, but I will let you know in 20 years.

You do realize that the 40s is the prime years of an office worker's career. Thats the equivalent of being mid-20s in an NHLers career. Not really a good example to hold yourself up for your argument, let alone use it to peg the whole global workforce with.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The only thing corona did was stop the cap from going up 3mil. This is entirely an issue of GMs constantly over spending with zero foresight.

False. You have a bunch of teams also desperately trying to cut costs/salary as well as theyll be losing a ton of money. A lot of teams working on internal caps that wouldnt normally be the case.

Its also not just $3M this season, its another ~$3M the season after that as well. Which is why we're seeing almost no long term contracts.

No one knows when this will end.

 

[BruinsBtn]

I think the most interesting and likely most lucrative option for both hall and petro is to sign 1 year contracts this season, then to sign large contracts with Seattle next season (Seattle wont be weighed down by bad contracts, and will want to make an immediate impact like Vegas did).

Hall and Pietrangelo would be a pretty good start for the Kraken

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

You do realize that the 40s is the prime years of an office worker's career. Thats the equivalent of being mid-20s in an NHLers career. Not really a good example to hold yourself up for your argument, let alone use it to peg the whole global workforce with.

The difference is that in the real world, salary decreases after the peak but in the NHL, it increases with age right up until the end.

https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/pay-salary/average-salary-by-age

 

[tenken00]

The difference is that in the real world, salary decreases after the peak.

https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/pay-salary/average-salary-by-age

Wait, we're not talking about real salary. We were talking about paying for past performance instead of future performance, and how the NHL contract is just a reflection of real world job economics and just the way humanity works.

What are you even trying to say with your link? And your link shows that after peak ~ ages 45 -54, real salary only drops slightly. Much less than the gains made in each of the previous steps.

Edit: And can't use the age 65 and over bracket as 65 is considered retirement for the majority of the population.

 

[member 157595]

GMs are no different than the rest of society. Buying things that they cant afford for immediate gratification that it never brings.

There's also the argument that a team bombs, the GM that signed those contracts may not be around to worry about them in the first place. It's easier for fans to worry about the long-term, since their job security doesn't depend on the success or failure of their favorite sports team.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

You don’t say? People have been trying to say this with trade value and signing value of players for months but people won’t accept covid has wrecked everything from revenue to player value.

 

[seanlinden]

To those that suggested that compliance buyouts were a "solution" -- they really weren't. IIRC, last time compliance buyouts were done, they still counted against the player share of earnings, thereby decreasing player share even more. The very basic problem is that you have guys who expect to make something resembling the face value of their contract, but are in a system that ties total compensation to 50% of revenues, and have a global massive decrease in revenue.

As for what Chris Johnston mentioned -- he's absolutely right. Guys who waited to sign are going to get squeezed out -- there is $230m in TOTAL cap space remaining right now -- and that's assuming every team spends to the cap which is certianly not going to happen. I think all of the guys who signed for 1 year hoping to escape the COVID are also going to be quite disappointed.

The cap is not going up next year; and there are 28 players expiring with contracts of $5m or more. 7 of them are 29 or younger; meaning there isn't really a lot of space "opening up" next year anyways.

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

There's also the argument that a team bombs, the GM that signed those contracts may not be around to worry about them in the first place. It's easier for fans to worry about the long-term, since their job security doesn't depend on the success or failure of their favorite sports team.

There is certainly some truth to that.... Its the next guy's problem.

 

[PAZ]

To those that suggested that compliance buyouts were a "solution" -- they really weren't. IIRC, last time compliance buyouts were done, they still counted against the player share of earnings, thereby decreasing player share even more. The very basic problem is that you have guys who expect to make something resembling the face value of their contract, but are in a system that ties total compensation to 50% of revenues, and have a global massive decrease in revenue.

As for what Chris Johnston mentioned -- he's absolutely right. Guys who waited to sign are going to get squeezed out -- there is $230m in TOTAL cap space remaining right now -- and that's assuming every team spends to the cap which is certianly not going to happen. I think all of the guys who signed for 1 year hoping to escape the COVID are also going to be quite disappointed.

The cap is not going up next year; and there are 28 players expiring with contracts of $5m or more. 7 of them are 29 or younger; meaning there isn't really a lot of space "opening up" next year anyways.

Next year there is an extra 81.5 mil of cap space being injected into the league. That’s quite a bit of space considering Seattle will probably spend the cap.

Players will still get squeezed out, but it won’t be as bad as this year.

 

[glenbuis]

Should get rid of the cap as we know it. Adopt a more revenue sharing model than is already in place.

If a team cant succeed in its city- then you lose the team.

To be honest- from a team with no financial difficulty-its frustrating to have to be bogged down because of low revenue teams like Arizona, New Jersey, Florida etc.

Teams should be able to outspend the cap by 25% if they wish and just allocate more to the revenue sharing program.

If this isnt viable then id rather they fold those franchises and relocate.

This cap thing has become ridiculous.

Yes because big market teams can’t buy a stanley cup . Screw parity . What’s the sense of having a league with a level playing field ?

 

[JoemAvs]

To those that suggested that compliance buyouts were a "solution" -- they really weren't. IIRC, last time compliance buyouts were done, they still counted against the player share of earnings, thereby decreasing player share even more. The very basic problem is that you have guys who expect to make something resembling the face value of their contract, but are in a system that ties total compensation to 50% of revenues, and have a global massive decrease in revenue.

As for what Chris Johnston mentioned -- he's absolutely right. Guys who waited to sign are going to get squeezed out -- there is $230m in TOTAL cap space remaining right now -- and that's assuming every team spends to the cap which is certianly not going to happen. I think all of the guys who signed for 1 year hoping to escape the COVID are also going to be quite disappointed.

The cap is not going up next year; and there are 28 players expiring with contracts of $5m or more. 7 of them are 29 or younger; meaning there isn't really a lot of space "opening up" next year anyways.

You are forgetting about Seattle.
The cap will remain flat at 81.5m but another team added is an extra 81.5m to go around for the players. 81.5/31 =2.6m.
So you could say the cap will increase by 2.5m for every team next season from a players perspective if my math is correct.
And due to the lack of longterm deals this season, less albatross contracts will clog up the cap and prevent more deserving players from getting paid...

 

[Price4Prez]

Yes because big market teams can’t buy a stanley cup . Screw parity . What’s the sense of having a league with a level playing field ?

What does parity have to do with it? Do we talk about parity in other leagues?

Life isnt like that. Theres people and businesses that make more then others and live better. Should someone who makes more have to live the same as someone who makes less? Whats the point of working harder and being successful if u have to live like a peasant while making top dollar.

And if you realllllly want to push the parity bs...then just make the parity at higher level. The main point is being dragged down by low tier teams. Strenghten the bottom and raise the level of parity to a higher point. Bigger cap. If u cant follow-put the team in a city that can. Simple.

Its a sport and a business, not a freaking charity case.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You are forgetting about Seattle.
The cap will remain flat at 81.5m but another team added is an extra 81.5m to go around for the players. 81.5/31 =2.6m.
So you could say the cap will increase by 2.5m for every team next season from a players perspective if my math is correct.
And due to the lack of longterm deals this season, less albatross contracts will clog up the cap and prevent more deserving players from getting paid...

Actually it won’t, as you now divide revenues by 32 not 31.

 

[JoemAvs]

Actually it won’t, as you now divide revenues by 32 not 31.

Not true because the cap is set at 81.5m for the next 3 years regardless of what happens to HRR IIRC...
Its just going to screw the players further and increase escrow but UFAs will be happy about it.

 

[StreetHawk]

You don’t say? People have been trying to say this with trade value and signing value of players for months but people won’t accept covid has wrecked everything from revenue to player value.

Covid has wrecked everything. More supply now so in the real world the companies that are doing well have a lot of options in terms of hiring talent. More competition for jobs since there are people in tourism and entertainment industries that got hit hard. There are certainly accountants, IT staff, marketing people in those industries that got let go and we’re looking for work in other industries.
its those who are specific to their industries that are hit hard.

Thats why it Was smart for guys to sign deals this weekend when they got offers. Stecher was called by the Canucks that they would circle back with him if things fell through with Barrie. But Stecher can’t wait around and risk losing out. Third pairing guy who got a 2 year offer has to take it.

knew the middle of the pack guys are getting squeezed.

toffoli Who is 28 would typically get 5/6 years for $5.5 mill most likely pre Covid. Now, he’ll likely get either shorter term like 2 years at $5 mill per or get 4 years at closer to $4.5 mill or less.

teams with cap room aren’t likely to use it if they didn’t expect to make the playoffs. No fans to convince to come to the arenas so why spend money?

 

[PensPlz]

If Jack Johnson got a new contract then everything is fine....

Maybe it's inept GMs that are just paying guys too much. And you can't regulate that away.

 

[Flukeshot]

As per Capfriendly.com at this moment there is:

$236.6M in open cap dollars
106 open roster spots on the 23 man rosters
That's an AVG Cap hit of $2.2M per player
The cost to fill those 106 spots at just the league minimum of $700,000 is $74.2M
So there is only $162M in "extra" cap money out there


There is a good chance that the top 10 remaining UFA/RFA's take up $70M of that $236M, with the next best 16 guys covering off another 50m.

That would leave about 80 guys fighting for ~$115M, of which $74M is just there to fill the rosters.

There will be an advantage to players willing to take a $700K one way deal, so that they can beat out ELC players on two-way deals but come at a higher cap hit.

I would suspect we will see teams prefer to give the ELC guys every chance to make the team. And a lot of PTOs in pre-season.