Speculation: 90% of the league's cap dollars already spent and teams trying to shed salary

[NewLife]

It was so blatantly obvious it would create a lot of problems to close the cap for three years at 81.5M. The league have been trading towards being at 90 in three years, teams have been structured and built towards that. Those who got paid big money pre covid are extremely lucky.

Can't wait Pietrangelo number.

 

[josra33]

I wonder if the league and PA will look into buyouts that don’t affect teams next summer.

 

[Big Muddy]

Which is probably why hall went to Buffalo And why Petro could be Going to NJ or another team with space.

Ya, the amount of people dumping on Hall, although understandable from some perspectives, was not that mysterious. He probably went to the team that made the best offer, and there were fewer offers (and weaker offers) than expected.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yes because big market teams can’t buy a stanley cup . Screw parity . What’s the sense of having a league with a level playing field ?

I’m fine with a player cap if there is also a ticket price cap.

Big market fans paying a kings ransom for tickets would give the team a financial advantage pre cap. The fans of “poor teams” had the advantage of watching their team for dirt cheap.

With a cap, the fans of rich teams STILL pay a kings ransom for no competitive advantage, while poor team can be competitive while fans pay pennies.

This was all done to try and grow the league in small market by taking extreme advantage of big market fans. It’s bullshit.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

when is the league going to realize its UFA system is backwards and that giving a player past his peak a contract based on what he earned with his previous team is a horrible business model

Agreed, but let’s be clear that this is not a cba problem. It’s a gm problem. They do it to themselves.

Players become ufa’s at 27, which is the heart of their prime years. If the GM’s gave them 3-4 year deals for big bucks, then everything makes sense. The problem is the terms they hand out.

 

[604]

I’m fine with a player cap if there is also a ticket price cap.

Big market fans paying a kings ransom for tickets would give the team a financial advantage pre cap. The fans of “poor teams” had the advantage of watching their team for dirt cheap.

With a cap, the fans of rich teams STILL pay a kings ransom for no competitive advantage, while poor team can be competitive while fans pay pennies.

This was all done to try and grow the league in small market by taking extreme advantage of big market fans. It’s bullshit.

The problem is, a league where the richest teams win over and over again is not a healthy league.

Also, remember costs have nothing to do with revenue, as long as revenue is higher than costs. So ticket prices are set based on the most they can get, regardless of payroll.

It's a false illusion that a cap on players salaries has any affect on ticket prices

 

[Curufinwe]

I wonder if the league and PA will look into buyouts that don’t affect teams next summer.

I doubt the owners want to spend millions of dollars that will be totally outside the salary cap system.

 

[vanarchy]

Toffoli definitely signed for less than he's worth. The Hall deal is not really comparable because it's a 1 year.

I really want Petro to sign so we can see if this issue affects the blockbuster players.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Umm, Detroit already is.

Unfortunately for us, depth players are going to be played in core spots.

And it’ll still be a step up from our beer league roster last year

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The problem is, a league where the richest teams win over and over again is not a healthy league.

Also, remember costs have nothing to do with revenue, as long as revenue is higher than costs. So ticket prices are set based on the most they can get, regardless of payroll.

It's a false illusion that a cap on players salaries has any affect on ticket prices

That's not exactly what I meant.

I fully understand ticket prices are based entirely off of supply and demand, both pre cap and now.

My argument is that in the pre cap world, big market fans paid outrageous prices for tickets, but the tradeoff was it created a financial advantage for our team to pay more on players.

In the cap world, big market fans still pay outrageous prices for tickets, but at no tradeoff of the team paying more on players (or at least a much smaller tradeoff). Especially now with most teams at the cap ceiling.

The fair solution was to cap BOTH player salaries and ticket prices. That's what's most fair to all fans. But that of course would never happen, because being "fair" to fans was never the goal. Just making more money.

 

[StreetHawk]

Agreed, but let’s be clear that this is not a cba problem. It’s a gm problem. They do it to themselves.

Players become ufa’s at 27, which is the heart of their prime years. If the GM’s gave them 3-4 year deals for big bucks, then everything makes sense. The problem is the terms they hand out.

That is the typical age but we have seen many threads about buying ufa years from rfa. You are ufa if you either play 7 nhl seasons which is being on the roster for half the season or you turn 27 by July having played 4 nhl seasons.
MacKinnon is ufa at 28 but that is after 10 nhl seasons. Larkin will be ufa at 27 but he started at 19 and will have given Detroit 8 seasons.
The issue is that players have been selling ufa years in their second contract thus pushing their ufa age back 2 years.
Barzal is 23 so is 4 years from ufa but fully expect him to do 5/6 years on contract 2 to take him to 28/29. Thus a max term deal will take him to 36/37 afterwards.

Both sides seem to like the security that comes with long term second contracts. For the players it also allows them on contract 3 to push terms to get paid into their mid 30’s. Otherwise being ufa at 34 lessens your leverage. So if you are 28/29 always go max term not just 5 years to get to 33/34.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That is the typical age but we have seen many threads about buying ufa years from rfa. You are ufa if you either play 7 nhl seasons which is being on the roster for half the season or you turn 27 by July having played 4 nhl seasons.
MacKinnon is ufa at 28 but that is after 10 nhl seasons. Larkin will be ufa at 27 but he started at 19 and will have given Detroit 8 seasons.
The issue is that players have been selling ufa years in their second contract thus pushing their ufa age back 2 years.
Barzal is 23 so is 4 years from ufa but fully expect him to do 5/6 years on contract 2 to take him to 28/29. Thus a max term deal will take him to 36/37 afterwards.

Both sides seem to like the security that comes wi long term second contracts. For the players it also slows them on contract 3 to push terms to get paid into their mid 30’s. Otherwise being ufa at 34 lessens your leverage. So if you are 28/29 always go max term not just 5 years to get to 33/34.

That system still works as long as the gm's don't hand out long terms on the 28-29 year old ufa's. The problem is giving long terms to players over 27. Gm's just need to stop hurting themselves by doing it.

 

[604]

That is the typical age but we have seen many threads about buying ufa years from rfa. You are ufa if you either play 7 nhl seasons which is being on the roster for half the season or you turn 27 by July having played 4 nhl seasons.
MacKinnon is ufa at 28 but that is after 10 nhl seasons. Larkin will be ufa at 27 but he started at 19 and will have given Detroit 8 seasons.
The issue is that players have been selling ufa years in their second contract thus pushing their ufa age back 2 years.
Barzal is 23 so is 4 years from ufa but fully expect him to do 5/6 years on contract 2 to take him to 28/29. Thus a max term deal will take him to 36/37 afterwards.

Both sides seem to like the security that comes with long term second contracts. For the players it also allows them on contract 3 to push terms to get paid into their mid 30’s. Otherwise being ufa at 34 lessens your leverage. So if you are 28/29 always go max term not just 5 years to get to 33/34.

The problem is there is no fan union.

That being said, fans who are wealthy would get mad at whatever allocation system was used if it isn't who can pay the most.

 

[Forge]

I wonder if the league and PA will look into buyouts that don’t affect teams next summer.

Owners have been pretty much dead set against it so far.

 

[Djp]

I’m fine with a player cap if there is also a ticket price cap.

Big market fans paying a kings ransom for tickets would give the team a financial advantage pre cap. The fans of “poor teams” had the advantage of watching their team for dirt cheap.

With a cap, the fans of rich teams STILL pay a kings ransom for no competitive advantage, while poor team can be competitive while fans pay pennies.

This was all done to try and grow the league in small market by taking extreme advantage of big market fans. It’s bullshit.

You have to allow local cost of living, lease costs into play.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I wonder if the league and PA will look into buyouts that don’t affect teams next summer.

Cant see that happening. The players union would definitely accept it, the owners wouldn't. That's just more money out of their pockets. The owners have no issue with players making less.

 

[604]

Cant see that happening. The players union would definitely accept it, the owners wouldn't. That's just more money out of their pockets. The owners have no issue with players making less.

That's an over simplification.

The rich owners who are driven to win would probably push to allow a couple compliance buyouts.

Not sure who falls into which category since the COVID re-shuffle on the economy.

 

[deckercky]

Isn't the money all 50% regardless?

Buyouts that don't count against the cap just increase escrow.

 

[DropTheGloves]

That's an over simplification.

The rich owners who are driven to win would probably push to allow a couple compliance buyouts.

Not sure who falls into which category since the COVID re-shuffle on the economy.

Why wouldn't the poor teams? Melnyk for example could sign a legitimate 2C (well, on Ottawa) in Tyler Johnson for way below market value after he's bought out. Everybody wins, even the players since escrow just delays their share of the money and doesn't erase it from existence. I don't understand why it wasn't the very first thing everyone agreed to.

 

[Colt55]

The hard cap needs to go.

Says about 5 teams in the league. Maybe the gms should give better contracts

 

[Man Bear Pig]

That's an over simplification.

The rich owners who are driven to win would probably push to allow a couple compliance buyouts.

Not sure who falls into which category since the COVID re-shuffle on the economy.

Sure, but you'd also need the majority of owners to agree on it, no? It's really uncertain what's going to happen in the next few years economically, for everyone. I just don't see most owners thrilled at the idea.

 

[Trinity]

The hard cap needs to go.

Owners love it.

 

[King 88]

Good. Maybe gms will learn not to give huge deals for one season wonders or mediocre players. Doubt it though

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

I created a list of teams that still have cap space and can do something with it. The bolded teams can take on some salary (and aren't cheap, like Ottawa). Underlined teams need to make some sort of move to clear cap. I'm sure there will be hundred problems with this list, but the market for taking cap is shrinking very quickly.

Arizona - $2 million over
St. Louis - $1.1m over plus whatever it takes to sign Vince Dunn
Anaheim - $5.8 mil in cap space with Kesler on LTIR, needing a goalie
Montreal - $353k over (could bury a contract in the minors?)
Washington - $224k over, needing a forward
Winnipeg - $5.319 million in cap with Little on LTIR (re-sign RFAs Niku, Roslovic, Harkins)
Toronto - $406k in space
Edmonton - $732k in cap space (re-sign RFA Bear)
Vegas - $1.875 million in cap space but wanting to sign Pietrangelo to a big AAV contract
Pittsburgh - $2.568 million in cap space
Minnesota - $2.7 million in cap space
Tampa Bay - $2.895 million in cap space (re-sign Cirelli, Cernak & Sergachev)
San Jose - $2.99 million in cap space
Carolina - $5.082 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Foegele & Fleury)
Philadelphia - $5.685 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Patrick & Myers)
Calgary - $5.7 million in cap space, needing 2 forwards, plus re-signing RFAs Mangiapane & Kylington
Chicago - $6.163 million in cap space (re-sign RFA Strome) - LTIR situation I'm not familiar with (Shaw/Seabrook)
Dallas - $6.657 million in cap space (re-sign RFA Hintz & Gurianov)
Colorado $6.797 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Jost, Kamenev & Toews)
Vancouver - $7.948 million in cap space, needing D-men (re-sign RFAs Virtanen & Gaudette)
Islanders - $8.905 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Barzal & Pulock)
Boston - $11.045 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs DeBrusk & Grzelcyk)
Florida - $11.563 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Saarela & Weegar)
Los Angeles - $13.620 million in cap space, needing a forward
Columbus - $13.625 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Dubois, Stenlund, Gavrikov, Carlsson)
Buffalo - $13.645 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Reinhart, Pilut & Ullmark) - internal cap?
Nashville - $13.667 million in cap space, needing 2 forwards (re-sign RFA Kunin)
New Jersey - $18.345 million in cap space, needing 2 forwards + 1 defenseman (re-sign RFAs Bratt & Blackwood)
Detroit - $18.738 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Bertuzzi, Mantha & Timashov), Zetterberg on LTIR
Rangers - $18.804 million in cap space (re-sign RFAs Strome, Lemieux, DeAngelo, Georgiev, Di Giuseppe)
Ottawa - $27.787 million in cap space, needing a forward (re-sign RFAs Brown, Tierney, Balcers, Paul) - Gaborik on LTIR - internal cap?

 

[ElLeetch]

Says about 5 teams in the league. Maybe the gms should give better contracts

5 teams? The vast majority of teams are gonna be right at the cap. If ~25-28 of your teams are at the cap, that means the cap is too low.