Post-Game Talk: #7 | Wild at Flyers | October 26, 2023 | Flyers win 6-2

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

Well the Flyers have several years with a large amount of dead cap to deal with before big free agent targets will be much of an option. Ellis, Hayes, maybe Risto.

Ellis's entire cap hit can be wiped out by LTIR. The fact that we haven't done so yet is simply a product of where the team is at. If we're ready to build 2 summer's from now, Ellis's contract won't be an issue. Suffice it to say in 2 summers we should have an ample amount to spend if we don't waste cap space foolishly. Even more if we made a few trades.

 

[flyersnorth]

Again, the idea that "...this team plus Gauthier, Michkov, Bonk, some secondary pieces, and a couple 10-15 overall picks is enough to compete" is why people think this team is on the road to mediocre again. That would be perfectly cromulent 1st round doormat team and little more.

Curious why you think that isn't possible?

Carolina has two players taken top 3 (Svechnikov and 35 year old Staal).
They have seven taken in the 12-28 range. And some later round picks that turned out better than expected.

Boston has three top 6 players (JVR, Lindholm, Zacha).
Eight players taken between 14-30. And a bunch of later picks.

Vegas has two players taken top 5 (Pietrangelo, Eichel).
Two players taken between 26-27, and the rest are later round picks.

Colorado has six top 5 players.
Two players picked 10th. And the rest are later round picks.

Flyers will have two top 5 players.
Ten players taken between 8-27, and a bunch of later round picks.

Colorado is the outlier in terms of stacking top 5 picks and winning. Vegas is an expansion team, and I don't know how that affects outcomes. I included Carolina because it seems to be a model a lot of people look at as being a good one. And Boston is consistently competitive.

Obviously the type of player a teams drafts, the development, the performance, the positional distribution, depth, chemistry, and a bunch of other factors come into play.

I'm torn because of course I'd love to see as much high end talent as possible on the Flyers, and top 5 draft picks are the best place to acquire that. At the same time, it doesn't seem like you need as many as I thought.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

I have no idea what you're talking about. No shit I wasn't giving them "credit" for trying to flee from Sanheim because of the only down year of his career, because that was a ridiculous process for them to follow. I've always considered Sanheim an asset.

Are you thinking of someone else? If not, you couldn't be more wrong.

My point was that you mocked them for the deal being broken up by Krug's refusal to waive and chided them for being unwilling/unable to move more veterans in a single offseason to get assets for the rebuild (Sanheim was one of these vets).

Now that Sanheim is playing excellent hockey you're mocking them for having the gaul to even consider moving him.

You will take literally any chance to potshot Briere/Jones. You figure out your reasoning later. Now your "reasoning" is that moving Sanheim (at age 27 w/ a full NMC) would've been foolish and they're stupid for even considering it, but that they're also dumb as hell for not moving Konecny already when he's a full year younger than Sanheim, has a better contract and doesn't have any type of NMC. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

And just like that, 10 years of defending Sanheim against all the idiots and trolls who don't know shit and have never known shit goes down the drain.

 

[deadhead]

Again, the idea that "...this team plus Gauthier, Michkov, Bonk, some secondary pieces, and a couple 10-15 overall picks is enough to compete" is why people think this team is on the road to mediocre again. That would be perfectly cromulent 1st round doormat team and little more.

People keep pointing at teams with multiple elite players who've haven't even got to conference finals (Edmonton, once, Toronto zero, NJ yet to advance).

Caps, Blues and Vegas have won 3 of the last 6 Cups, Caps had Ovechkin, Blues lacked a superstar, Vegas had Eichel. You don't necessarily need 3 HOF candidates, you need two top lines and depth. If you have top goalies, you need less in front of them.

TB is sui generis, probably the best team of the last few decades.
The Blackhawks had Kane, Toews and Keith, Kane a great but one dimensional scorer, Toews a top two way center but a cut below HOF consideration.

Point is if you build a deep team with good goalies, Michkov and a half dozen top six forwards and four solid D-men would be enough. There's more than one way to build a top team.

 

[Beef Invictus]

My point was that you mocked them for the deal being broken up by Krug's refusal to waive and chided them for being unwilling/unable to move more veterans in a single offseason to get assets for the rebuild (Sanheim was one of these vets).

Now that Sanheim is playing excellent hockey you're mocking them for having the gaul to even consider moving him.

You will take literally any chance to potshot Briere/Jones. You figure out your reasoning later. Now your "reasoning" is that moving Sanheim (at age 27 w/ a full NMC) would've been foolish and they're stupid for even considering it, but that they're also dumb as hell for not moving Konecny already when he's a full year younger than Sanheim, has a better contract and doesn't have any type of NMC. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

Some vets make a lot more sense than others. Selling low on Sanheim never made any sense. Why should I think that selling low on players is good? Why should I give them credit for doing bad things?

Try to recall that my thinking hinges on such things. Hence why I wanted a younger Tippett moved; it being my belief we'd have been selling high, as with an uninjured roster he wouldn't have the usage needed to replicate his production.

I've made it very clear nonstop that I value processes. And their process driving a Sanheim move was always terrible. It didn't even have anything to do with "moving veterans as a rebuild." It was because he clashed with their shitty coach. You're trying to give them credit for motivation they didn't even have.

 

[deadhead]

Curious why you think that isn't possible?

Carolina has two players taken top 3 (Svechnikov and 35 year old Staal).
They have seven taken in the 12-28 range. And some later round picks that turned out better than expected.

Boston has three top 6 players (JVR, Lindholm, Zacha).
Eight players taken between 14-30. And a bunch of later picks.

Vegas has two players taken top 5 (Pietrangelo, Eichel).
Two players taken between 26-27, and the rest are later round picks.

Colorado has six top 5 players.
Two players picked 10th. And the rest are later round picks.

Flyers will have two top 5 players.
Ten players taken between 8-27, and a bunch of later round picks.

Colorado is the outlier in terms of stacking top 5 picks and winning. Vegas is an expansion team, and I don't know how that affects outcomes. I included Carolina because it seems to be a model a lot of people look at as being a good one. And Boston is consistently competitive.

Obviously the type of player a teams drafts, the development, the performance, the positional distribution, depth, chemistry, and a bunch of other factors come into play.

I'm torn because of course I'd love to see as much high end talent as possible on the Flyers, and top 5 draft picks are the best place to acquire that. At the same time, it doesn't seem like you need as many as I thought.

When you look at top playoff teams and their scoring distribution, it varies from the couple elite scorers and a bunch of second tier guys to teams that go 7-8 deep with 30+ ES scorers.

Same with STs, some teams have excellent PPs, but a lot of top teams have had mediocre PPs, the key to me is STs as a whole, PP + SH - PPA - SHA. You want that to be positive.

There's more than one way to build teams, the key to me seems to avoid big money FAs unless they're the final piece, draft well in later rounds so you can use your 1st and 2nd rd picks as trade bait to fill holes (TB's model). Don't panic and mortgage the future for one shot, playoffs are too variable to put all your eggs (draft picks ) into one basket.

 

[Striiker]

Nobody with a shred of hockey knowledge thought the Sanheim contract was bad value.

Hyper-focusing on one bad year after many good ones is not how we evaluate.

 

[ajgoal]

Curious why you think that isn't possible?

Carolina has two players taken top 3 (Svechnikov and 35 year old Staal).
They have seven taken in the 12-28 range. And some later round picks that turned out better than expected.

Boston has three top 6 players (JVR, Lindholm, Zacha).
Eight players taken between 14-30. And a bunch of later picks.

Vegas has two players taken top 5 (Pietrangelo, Eichel).
Two players taken between 26-27, and the rest are later round picks.

Colorado has six top 5 players.
Two players picked 10th. And the rest are later round picks.

Flyers will have two top 5 players.
Ten players taken between 8-27, and a bunch of later round picks.

Colorado is the outlier in terms of stacking top 5 picks and winning. Vegas is an expansion team, and I don't know how that affects outcomes. I included Carolina because it seems to be a model a lot of people look at as being a good one. And Boston is consistently competitive.

Obviously the type of player a teams drafts, the development, the performance, the positional distribution, depth, chemistry, and a bunch of other factors come into play.

I'm torn because of course I'd love to see as much high end talent as possible on the Flyers, and top 5 draft picks are the best place to acquire that. At the same time, it doesn't seem like you need as many as I thought.

Because of how the Flyers draft, and how they manage their assets. Yes, Carolina has only two top-3 players. They also almost always go after players with high ceilings vs. safe, high floor players that the Flyers covet. They take swings at devalued assets from other teams - example, you missed Kotkaniemi as a top-3 drafted player on their team. They pump up value and sell high, while the Flyers devalue their players and then sell them low. It's less that "what the Flyers want to do isn't possible," than, "What the Flyers want to do is highly unlikely in the way that they do it."

 

[Embiid]

Is this winning sustainable?

 

[freakydallas13]

Curious why you think that isn't possible?

Carolina has two players taken top 3 (Svechnikov and 35 year old Staal).
They have seven taken in the 12-28 range. And some later round picks that turned out better than expected.

Boston has three top 6 players (JVR, Lindholm, Zacha).
Eight players taken between 14-30. And a bunch of later picks.

Vegas has two players taken top 5 (Pietrangelo, Eichel).
Two players taken between 26-27, and the rest are later round picks.

Colorado has six top 5 players.
Two players picked 10th. And the rest are later round picks.

Flyers will have two top 5 players.
Ten players taken between 8-27, and a bunch of later round picks.

Colorado is the outlier in terms of stacking top 5 picks and winning. Vegas is an expansion team, and I don't know how that affects outcomes. I included Carolina because it seems to be a model a lot of people look at as being a good one. And Boston is consistently competitive.

Obviously the type of player a teams drafts, the development, the performance, the positional distribution, depth, chemistry, and a bunch of other factors come into play.

I'm torn because of course I'd love to see as much high end talent as possible on the Flyers, and top 5 draft picks are the best place to acquire that. At the same time, it doesn't seem like you need as many as I thought.

It's not so much where players are taken, it's that the Flyers will have holes at 1C and 1D at the very least, and I have doubts all of those assets I listed in the previous post are going to fill those holes.

 

[freakydallas13]

People keep pointing at teams with multiple elite players who've haven't even got to conference finals (Edmonton, once, Toronto zero, NJ yet to advance).

Caps, Blues and Vegas have won 3 of the last 6 Cups, Caps had Ovechkin, Blues lacked a superstar, Vegas had Eichel. You don't necessarily need 3 HOF candidates, you need two top lines and depth. If you have top goalies, you need less in front of them.

TB is sui generis, probably the best team of the last few decades.
The Blackhawks had Kane, Toews and Keith, Kane a great but one dimensional scorer, Toews a top two way center but a cut below HOF consideration.

Point is if you build a deep team with good goalies, Michkov and a half dozen top six forwards and four solid D-men would be enough. There's more than one way to build a top team.

The Flyers just went through a decade with one elite player, several good players, and a bunch of secondary players and achieved nothing, and you're questioning why a projected future team with one elite player, several good players, and a bunch of secondary players makes people nervous?

 

[freakydallas13]

Because of how the Flyers draft, and how they manage their assets. Yes, Carolina has only two top-3 players. They also almost always go after players with high ceilings vs. safe, high floor players that the Flyers covet. They take swings at devalued assets from other teams - example, you missed Kotkaniemi as a top-3 drafted player on their team. They pump up value and sell high, while the Flyers devalue their players and then sell them low. It's less that "what the Flyers want to do isn't possible," than, "What the Flyers want to do is highly unlikely in the way that they do it."

Look at the DeAngelo trade just to see how the 2 organizations operate. "The Flyers can be Carolina" rings hollow when they are *the* example of a team that Carolina clowns in asset management.

 

[flyersnorth]

It's not so much where players are taken, it's that the Flyers will have holes at 1C and 1D at the very least, and I have doubts all of those assets I listed in the previous post are going to fill those holes.

I agree, I think 1D is their biggest gap right now.

A lot of questions need to be answered over the next few years.

Can Sanheim play at a #1D level over a sustained period?
Will Michkov or Gauthier be a center in the NHL, and if so, at what level?
Does Hart get re-signed long-term, assuming he is cleared from HC?

 

[freakydallas13]

I agree, I think 1D is their biggest gap right now.

A lot of questions need to be answered over the next few years.

Can Sanheim play at a #1D level over a sustained period?
Will Michkov or Gauthier be a center in the NHL, and if so, at what level?
Does Hart get re-signed long-term, assuming he is cleared from HC?

Call me a hater, but I have a hard time trusting a team that tried to dump Sanheim 2 months ago for pennies' talent evaluation, and question their ability to fill the gaping holes before this team can be a contender.

 

[deadhead]

The Flyers just went through a decade with one elite player, several good players, and a bunch of secondary players and achieved nothing, and you're questioning why a projected future team with one elite player, several good players, and a bunch of secondary players makes people nervous?

Those teams had zero depth, let's look at the 2017-18 team probably the most talented group

G (30), Voracek (28), Couts (25), TK (20), Simmons (29)
rest of forwards: Filppula (33), Patrick (19), Raffl (29), Weal (25), Laughton (23), Weise (29), Lehtera (30), Leier (23), Lindblom (21)

D: Provorov (21), Ghost (24)
rest of defense: AMac (31), Hagg (22), Manning (27), Gudas (27), Sanheim (21)

Elliott (32), Neuvirth (29), Mrazek (27), Lyon (25)

That's a 90-95 point team that played over it's head.

 

[Tripod]

Call me a hater, but I have a hard time trusting a team that tried to dump Sanheim 2 months ago for pennies' talent evaluation, and question their ability to fill the gaping holes before this team can be a contender.

Christ, we have a #2C sitting here capable of 60+ pts, and Torts isn't interested.

 

[flyersnorth]

Call me a hater, but I have a hard time trusting a team that tried to dump Sanheim 2 months ago for pennies' talent evaluation, and question their ability to fill the gaping holes before this team can be a contender.

I hear ya - their track record is not great.

I have no expectations, and just enjoying the ebbs and flows of the team as they come. I have no interest in living with existential dread when it comes to the Flyers - I deal with enough of that in real life

If they're entertaining, I'll watch. If they're not, I'll find something better to do.

 

[Rebels57]

I eagerly look forward to the actual good teams rounding into form, stomping on this team, and shutting up all of the idiots that want to accelerate a rebuild and doom us to another decade of mediocrity at best.

 

[ajgoal]

I eagerly look forward to the actual good teams rounding into form, stomping on this team, and shutting up all of the idiots that want to accelerate a rebuild and doom us to another decade of mediocrity at best.

It won't change the minds of the idiots that matter, though.

 

[freakydallas13]

Those teams had zero depth, let's look at the 2017-18 team probably the most talented group

G (30), Voracek (28), Couts (25), TK (20), Simmons (29)
rest of forwards: Filppula (33), Patrick (19), Raffl (29), Weal (25), Laughton (23), Weise (29), Lehtera (30), Leier (23), Lindblom (21)

D: Provorov (21), Ghost (24)
rest of defense: AMac (31), Hagg (22), Manning (27), Gudas (27), Sanheim (21)

Elliott (32), Neuvirth (29), Mrazek (27), Lyon (25)

That's a 90-95 point team that played over it's head.

This doesn't really address what I said. Let's just say I think the team needs more elite talent before it can compete, and you think the teams needs more secondary talent before it can compete, and leave it at that.

 

[deadhead]

This doesn't really address what I said. Let's just say I think the team needs more elite talent before it can compete, and you think the teams needs more secondary talent before it can compete, and leave it at that.

Fair enough, if by "secondary" players you mean top 6/middle 6 forwards and top 4 D-men - that is, enough quality depth to compensate for missing one more elite player.

 

[Curufinwe]

Ellis's entire cap hit can be wiped out by LTIR. The fact that we haven't done so yet is simply a product of where the team is at. If we're ready to build 2 summer's from now, Ellis's contract won't be an issue. Suffice it to say in 2 summers we should have an ample amount to spend if we don't waste cap space foolishly. Even more if we made a few trades.

LTIR isn't that simple, and in the next two years they have to find room for extensions for:


Tippett
York
Konency
Cates
Brink
Foerster
Hart or another goalie

 

[jabba2]

The team as of right now with Couts, Sanheim, Brink and Farabee all rebounding or playing well, will not be drafting in the top ten. More like around 15th or so if this play continues. Injuries to Coots and Sanheim and the team will fall below .500 for the stretch they are gone at least. But with those two especially they will not tank top 10. The current lineup isnt playing that badly.

 

[Striiker]

-Foerster looked lost for most of the game. That was the first ‘bad’ game this year. He struggled before, but this one was bad. He got an assist only because he fumbled a prime scoring chance and Sanheim is the shit.

Well damn who should I believe, you or the biggest fanboy on the planet?