Speculation: 6 In 5 Thread 2017/18 (& Playoff Prediction)

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by Aavco Cup, Oct 30, 2017.

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  1. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    Everyone should be familiar with the concept. Get 6 points or more every 5 games and a playoff spot is almost guaranteed.

    We are currently right at the line. 12 points in 10 games. If someone wants to create a nice table to keep track that would be appreciated. And YYZ if your automatic site still works it could be linked here.

    Other playoff prediction methods are also welcome like sportsclub stats or the athletic prediction and fancier methods like Mcurdy


    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Neuf

    Neuf Winterplague

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    I got my spreadsheet going, i can post a link later

    Link
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2017
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  3. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    The Athletic currently projects us to finish with 95+ points

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Gm0ney

    Gm0ney Unicorns salient

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    Dom's model was +/- 9.9 points last year, so the Jets point range is 105.2 to 85.4. If we continue to get great goaltending and can tighten up the PK we'll be at the higher end of the range.
     
  5. Neuf

    Neuf Winterplague

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    14 points
    8 in last 5 games
    Averaging 6.4 per 5 games
    Pacing for 104
     
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  6. Tom ServoMST3K

    Tom ServoMST3K Hockey Professor in Training

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    What's your excuse?
    6 in 5 thread = Best thread.
     
  7. 4th Line Beast

    4th Line Beast Liberty or Tea

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    We need to aim higher. This is unacceptable. 7 in 5 is the new goal , very much possible. 115 points , no less
     
  8. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ RIP Fugu

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    Why should we care about the Jets obtaining only 6pts every 5 games? Playoffs.

    6pts in 5 will result in a 98 points, or an almost guaranteed playoff spot, as no team has ever (as far as I know) NOT made the playoffs in the modern era if they've ended the season with this point total. In essence, this thread allows us to concentrate on JUST the Jets, and ignore what's going on around the league. Get 1.2pts per game, and it doesn't matter what teams around us are doing.

    This concept was originated by Mike Keenan when he was the Rangers head coach for the '94 season. The main idea behind this - not every game is a must win. Consistency is key, and a small slide / losing streak is not necessarily the end of the world.

    So yes: getting 7 in 5 would be fantastic, but it's not necessary. In the past, this thread has been about staying calm and realistic about the position of the team, and the likelihood of them reaching the PO's, not about simply cheering for wins.
     
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  9. Steenager

    Steenager Registered User

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    I, for one, will not be satisfied unless we finish the year with 130 points. 8 in 5!
     
  10. 4th Line Beast

    4th Line Beast Liberty or Tea

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    Sorry was just trying to be a smart ass.
     
  11. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    Post of the year!
    Let's win every game for ever while we're at it!
     
  12. Maukkis

    Maukkis PK's Sobbin'

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    True. Under the current division system, the highest amount of points for a non-playoff team was Boston's 96 in 14-15. What made that year so special was four teams finishing with under 70 points, and Carolina only beating that by one point. It would probably take half of the playoff teams finishing with under 70 points to render the 6 in 5 rule useless, and with the parity of today, I can't see that happening.
     
  13. LucianoBorsato

    LucianoBorsato Registered User

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    Aavco, do you have the latest playoff odds from the Athletic (because some of us are too cheap to pay for the site lol)
     
  14. Gm0ney

    Gm0ney Unicorns salient

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    As of Nov 1 - Jets projected to hit 96.5 points and a 74% chance of making the playoffs:
    [​IMG]
    Can everyone see that?
     
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  15. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ RIP Fugu

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    Yep - are you not seeing the image of the table on your side?
     
  16. Spock

    Spock Registered User

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    sw.jpg
     
  17. Gm0ney

    Gm0ney Unicorns salient

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    I see it, but I subscribe to the Athletic so I was wondering if non-subscribers could see the image.
     
  18. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ RIP Fugu

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    I don't subscribe to the Athletic, and I can see it. Vulcans, on the other hand...
     
  19. Neuf

    Neuf Winterplague

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    Last 5 games: 8 pts
    Avg pts / 5 gm: 6.7
    Pacing: 109 pts
    0.670
     
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  20. Neuf

    Neuf Winterplague

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    Game 13
    Last 5 Games
    8 pts​
    Avg 5 Games
    6.5 pts​
    CML PPG
    1.31​
    Point %
    0.654​
    Win %
    0.538​
    Total Points
    17​
    Pace / 82 Games
    107​
     
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  21. Neuf

    Neuf Winterplague

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    Game 14
    Last 5 Games
    9 pts​
    Avg 5 Games
    6.8 pts​
    CML PPG
    1.36​
    Point %
    0.679​
    Win %
    0.571​
    Total Points
    19​
    Pace / 82 Games
    111​
     
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  22. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

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    Way to go go boys. Lets have a big weekend in LV and Arizona and the back home for Ducky's big night. Time to keep getting the wins.
     
  23. cbcwpg

    cbcwpg Registered User

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    19 points in 14 GP... ( 8 - 3 - 3 )

    If the Jets just managed to just play .500 over their last 68 games, we would end up with 87 points, which is exactly what we ended up with last season... and out of the playoffs.

    Another month of win 2 lose 1 should go a long ways to a playoff spot.
     
  24. Mortimer Snerd

    Mortimer Snerd Deregistered User

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    :laugh: This could have been written by Nobody Important - well, except for the last sentence. That is way too optimistic. :laugh:

    How about play .500 until there are only 7 games left, then go on a 7 game winning streak, like last year?

    19 + 61 = 80 + 14 = 94 - probable 2nd WC spot. :laugh:
    OK, I'd rather just go 6 in 5 from here on. That is 1.2 P/Gm x 68 = 81.6 + 19 = 100.6 - probable 3rd place in the Central. :laugh: Or better yet continue our current pace and get 111 points, 1st in Central.
     
  25. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    Athletic now predicting 98+ points

    [​IMG]
     
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