Speculation: 6 In 5 Thread 2017/18 (& Playoff Prediction)

[Gm0ney]

Today's chances. McCurdy's model has the Jets at 75%:

Dom's model has the Jets at 79% to make playoffs, 21% to win division, 9% to make the Finals, and 4% to win the Cup:

 

[YWGinYYZ]

23 points in 17 games. All we need is 1 point in the next 3 games and we’ll still be ok? My expectations has risen a little. I wouldn’t be satisfied with less than 4 points with 2 against Nashville.

Expectations and requirements are two different things - I expect them to win every game, for instance.

As long as we sail along at a .600 / 1.2pt per game pace, we're golden for a playoff spot.

 

[ERYX]

Any idea why the Jets expected win % dropped by 7% over the course of a week? Haven't we kept the same pace of winning we've had for a while?

 

[jets2020champs]

Expectations and requirements are two different things - I expect them to win every game, for instance.

As long as we sail along at a .600 / 1.2pt per game pace, we're golden for a playoff spot.

LOL. Thanks for straightening that out for me. I won’t be satisfied with less than 6 points then.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Any idea why the Jets expected win % dropped by 7% over the course of a week? Haven't we kept the same pace of winning we've had for a while?

I assume it's because we were expected to win the Vegas game. I don't think it's about the pace, it's about predicting the results of individual games. But I'm just guessing here so don't hold me up to it

 

[Aavco Cup]

I assume it's because we were expected to win the Vegas game. I don't think it's about the pace, it's about predicting the results of individual games. But I'm just guessing here so don't hold me up to it

Probably more to do with the rest of the league actually. The teams we have remaining to play are getting stronger in the rankings.

 

[Neuf]

Game 18

Last 5 Games	8 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.9 pts​
CML PPG	1.39​
Point %	0.694​
Win %	0.611​
Total Points	25​
Pace / 82 Games	113​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Game 18

Last 5 Games	8 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.9 pts​
CML PPG	1.39​
Point %	0.694​
Win %	0.611​
Total Points	25​
Pace / 82 Games	113​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Dat Pace tho

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

We acquire a playoff star, end up facing Tampa in the finals.

 

[Neuf]

Points YTD: 27
Rolling 5 Games: 8
Average 5 Games: 7.1
Points %: 0.711
Winning %: 0.632
Projected Finish: 116
PPG: 1.42

 

[Aavco Cup]

After 20 games we're still cruising above the line. (+3 pts)

 

[10Ducky10]

Aren't we 5 points up on the wildcard team?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Aren't we 5 points up on the wildcard team?

I was talking out out the 6 in 5 line

The line is 24 points after 20 games. Jets at 27 points.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Aren't we 5 points up on the wildcard team?

The original point behind 6 in 5 was: break up the season into "digestible" chunks that you can discuss with the players, and ignore the standings/what other teams around you are doing. As long as you maintain a 6 in 5 pace, you're almost 100% guaranteed of a playoff birth.

 

[ps241]

The original point behind 6 in 5 was: break up the season into "digestible" chunks that you can discuss with the players, and ignore the standings/what other teams around you are doing. As long as you maintain a 6 in 5 pace, you're almost 100% guaranteed of a playoff birth.

What I loved most about 6 in 5 is it kept me sane in our first and only playoff year. I can tend to get a bit high with the highs and low with the lows and 6 in 5 kept me grounded and reminded me this League is very even and you are going to lose allot of games.

 

[KingBogo]

What I loved most about 6 in 5 is it kept me sane in our first and only playoff year. I can tend to get a bit high with the highs and low with the lows and 6 in 5 kept me grounded and reminded me this League is very even and you are going to lose allot of games.

Yep. No one wins them all.

 

[Neuf]

Game 20

Last 5 Games	8 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.8 pts​
CML PPG	1.35​
Point %	0.675​
Win %	0.600​
Total Points	27​
Pace / 82 Games	110​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Neuf]

Game 21

Last 5 Games	8 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.9 pts​
CML PPG	1.38​
Point %	0.690​
Win %	0.619​
Total Points	29​
Pace / 82 Games	113​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ERYX]

Game 21

Last 5 Games	8 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.9 pts​
CML PPG	1.38​
Point %	0.690​
Win %	0.619​
Total Points	29​
Pace / 82 Games	113​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

El Capitan said "it's gotta be this year" and the boys are taking that sentiment seriously and delivering. Maybe not always pretty but by hook or by crook they're going to get it done.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

If we keep banking points like this it won't even matter how bad we are for the rest of the season. If we just go fake 0.500 from here on out we'd have 90 points. Insane.

 

[LucianoBorsato]

If we keep banking points like this it won't even matter how bad we are for the rest of the season. If we just go fake 0.500 from here on out we'd have 90 points. Insane.

Sportsclubstats has it at 30-25-6 to get 95 points or 31-24-6 to get 97 points rest of the season so you are quite right. There is a much better probability of clinching at 97 points (96.1%), even though 95 (83.1%) seems to be the usual agreed upon cut off line

33-21-7 will get us 102 points 100% guaranteed clinch

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Another thing that is nice to see on sportsclubstats is the variance for our playoff chances is a lot less now that we have banked points and are in a divisional spot (1-2-3). For example a loss may drop your chances by maybe 3-4%, whereas if you are on the outside looking in or a wildcard a loss can drop your chances by 10-15%. Meaning one can be less stressed out by a loss now haha.

 

[Maukkis]

Given how so many Western teams are practically even this year, the amount of points required to make it in could actually be quite low this year. Granted that we're only 21 games into the season, but it really does make a difference when teams are battling it out, dropping points to each other in the process.

 

[Gm0ney]

Happy American Thanksgiving, btw...

6 teams with 23 points vying for that last WC spot.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Happy American Thanksgiving, btw...

View attachment 84625

6 teams with 23 points vying for that last WC spot.

Noticed that last night. What a crazy race that will be. The Oilers could even still find their way into that bloodbath