Prospect Info: 5th Overall Pick, Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP UPDATED: Signs 3 Year ELC 3/11/20

[Raccoon Jesus]

Hard to compare eras going all the way back to the lockout and using AHL production. Seems like scoring is easier than 15 years ago, no?

I mean if you're going to compare Turcotte to stay at home d-men like McIlrath and Fleury I can only work with what I'm given.

Turcotte excelled in the AHL both years despite not even getting PP time this year and looked like a very good NHLer on a line in which not even Thousand Oaks Jesus could score. Given his years of injuries, I'm inclined to say his development path is delayed, not dead. Herby disagrees and that's fine, but I don't see a way to draw a hard and fast line on 'years of development' with covid, scoring between eras, and different paths to the NHL.

Hell, if anything, I like the guideline from the Byfield discussion more than anything--if an 'average' player hasn't played 200 NHL games yet, they're not showing you everything they've got, 400 games for small/big projects. Turcotte is at 8 NHL games and 66 total pro games but we're throwing dirt on his casket. Injuries have surely slowed his development, I'm not as ready to say they've stopped his development as some, and just like the rest of our prospects who just keep suffering major injuries, we can afford another 1-2 years of patience.

 

[RaymondReddington]

Turcotte is going to be a hell of a contributor to a good NHL team when he is healthy.

I hope to God this is not a Deadmarsh concussion situation.

 

[DoktorJeep]

I can’t see Turcotte being traded at all in the offseason, never mind for a big fish. You need some NHL games to be part of a big package for a star. So Vilardi, Kupari and even JAD have more trade value than Turcotte at this point.

Barring a breakout playoff performance with the Reign, this season is a write off for the kid. Thomas, Turcotte and Madden will have to come back next season looking to cement a position in the top six on the Reign.

Fagemo and JAD look to be bubble guys with Kupari and Vilardi as the competition. Bottom line is getting a breakout season from any of the bunch next year is like 20% odds of happening.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Just curious, out of all those guys, and the current picks in his draft, how many have had the health problems he has had? Have you ever factored this into your constant criticism of his slow development? I'm sure mono, the hand injury, appenacitis during camp this year, covid, and the other injury have had nothing to do with it at all. These are facts. He has admitted that this has slowed his development, and I'm sure the front office has too. You can't predict these things when you draft a guy [no matter where], no more than you can predict a guy taken in the 7th will be a hall of famer. It sucks it happened to our guy, but who's to say if they drafted someone else, it doesn't happen to them too. We all want to see a healthy Turcotte play on this team, it just hasn't happened yet.

He just doesn’t LOOK like anything but a small checker. It’s his mentality. Even with the medicals we should be able to see it. I’m off the Turcotte train.

 

[BigKing]

I mean if you're going to compare Turcotte to stay at home d-men like McIlrath and Fleury I can only work with what I'm given.

Turcotte excelled in the AHL both years despite not even getting PP time this year and looked like a very good NHLer on a line in which not even Thousand Oaks Jesus could score. Given his years of injuries, I'm inclined to say his development path is delayed, not dead. Herby disagrees and that's fine, but I don't see a way to draw a hard and fast line on 'years of development' with covid, scoring between eras, and different paths to the NHL.

Hell, if anything, I like the guideline from the Byfield discussion more than anything--if an 'average' player hasn't played 200 NHL games yet, they're not showing you everything they've got, 400 games for small/big projects. Turcotte is at 8 NHL games and 66 total pro games but we're throwing dirt on his casket. Injuries have surely slowed his development, I'm not as ready to say they've stopped his development as some, and just like the rest of our prospects who just keep suffering major injuries, we can afford another 1-2 years of patience.

Bolded is fair.

I definitely wasn't as impressed with his NHL play as you are but it is a small sample size. My biggest concern is that we are nearing the end of his D+3 season and it would be fair to say that he is basically a small sample size.

FSW was airing Wisconsin games locally here because of him. Now he's a f***ing ghost.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I can’t see Turcotte being traded at all in the offseason, never mind for a big fish. You need some NHL games to be part of a big package for a star. So Vilardi, Kupari and even JAD have more trade value than Turcotte at this point.

Barring a breakout playoff performance with the Reign, this season is a write off for the kid. Thomas, Turcotte and Madden will have to come back next season looking to cement a position in the top six on the Reign.

Fagemo and JAD look to be bubble guys with Kupari and Vilardi as the competition. Bottom line is getting a breakout season from any of the bunch next year is like 20% odds of happening.

Exactly, people keep saying to trade them, but between injuries and covid and possibly just shit development, almost all of our top prospects are at least a year behind. That sucks, but trading them for pennies on the dollar now is just giving someone else a lottery ticket. Frankly, we're better off waiting them out, even if they turn into nothing in some cases. No one is going to give you back a turcotte-ceiling player for turcotte at this stage, you're just getting more quantity.

As i said elsewhere, Kings are where they can--and should--trade quantity for quality. Even quality for quality of differing positions, arguably. But potential quality for quantity/recouping losses? Absolutely pointless. No matter how you feel about Turcotte I'd hold that to be true.

 

[tbrown33]

Exactly, people keep saying to trade them, but between injuries and covid and possibly just shit development, almost all of our top prospects are at least a year behind. That sucks, but trading them for pennies on the dollar now is just giving someone else a lottery ticket. Frankly, we're better off waiting them out, even if they turn into nothing in some cases. No one is going to give you back a turcotte-ceiling player for turcotte at this stage, you're just getting more quantity.

As i said elsewhere, Kings are where they can--and should--trade quantity for quality. Even quality for quality of differing positions, arguably. But potential quality for quantity/recouping losses? Absolutely pointless. No matter how you feel about Turcotte I'd hold that to be true.

100% Turcotte has more value to the Kings roster than as a secondary or tertiary trade piece. I am still fairly confident he will be at least a solid second line forward. If his trade value is *actually* not very good and teams aren't interested in him, then there are other assets you could part with instead.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Bolded is fair.

I definitely wasn't as impressed with his NHL play as you are but it is a small sample size. My biggest concern is that we are nearing the end of his D+3 season and it would be fair to say that he is basically a small sample size.

FSW was airing Wisconsin games locally here because of him. Now he's a f***ing ghost.

Probably has more to do with college hockey being done....than Turcotte......just a guess.

 

[AlphaBravo]

Sorry really behind on Turcotte. Is he still injured or will he play in the AHL playoffs?

 

[BigKing]

Probably has more to do with college hockey being done....than Turcotte......just a guess.

No. The point is that the hype train immediately after he was drafted led to Wisconsin games being shown on a SoCal regional sports network. Now the guy is just a rumor. Has anyone even seen him over the last month?
Does he even exist?

I should not be more familiar with Jacob Moverare than Alex Turcotte at this point in time.

 

[Herby]

100% Turcotte has more value to the Kings roster than as a secondary or tertiary trade piece. I am still fairly confident he will be at least a solid second line forward. If his trade value is *actually* not very good and teams aren't interested in him, then there are other assets you could part with instead.

This part I actually agree with.

Based on the Lias trade, Turcotte’s play in the AHL and his injury concerns the value of Turcotte is probably a 2nd round pick from a bad team (33-45). Lias brought pick 60 but he’s just not as good a player, although he is more durable.

With the Kings rebuild at the stage it’s at I would rather have a 21 year old guy with an Andrew Copp ceiling and a more stable floor than an 17-18 year old draft pick with maybe more upside but also a much lower floor.

Although I do think almost every Kings pick for the next few years should be taken on higher ceiling gambles, especially in the 1st and 2nd round in hopes of trying to find an offensive difference maker.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This part I actually agree with.

Based on the Lias trade the value of Turcotte is probably a 2nd round pick from a bad team (33-45).

With the Kings rebuild at the stage it’s at I would rather have a 21 year old guy with an Andrew Copp ceiling than an 18 year old draft pick with maybe more upside but also a lower floor.

Although I do think almost every Kings pick for the next few years should be taken on higher ceiling gambles, especially in the 1st and 2nd round in hopes of trying to find an offensive difference maker.

Yup, it's time for all the home run swings.

Sounds like unfortunately for us your dude Nazar is climbing the rankings!

 

[KingLB]

I think one thing that nobody really contemplates, and may actually have a huge impact on anyone drafted in the last 3 years, and probably for the next 2 atleast. Is how much development was lost/impacted by COVID? Not sure how you can compare anyone to a historical timeline when Turcotte/Byfield etc lost probably almost a years worth of development from that. (Before we even look at injuries)

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Kid needs to go work out with Gary Roberts this summer whether he likes it or not! I’ll start the go fund me to pay for it if any of you can get Matt Greene and O’Donnell to rent the van and fire up master of puppets to Old school him to wherever camp is.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

I think one thing that nobody really contemplates, and may actually have a huge impact on anyone drafted in the last 3 years, and probably for the next 2 atleast. Is how much development was lost/impacted by COVID? Not sure how you can compare anyone to a historical timeline when Turcotte/Byfield etc lost probably almost a years worth of development from that. (Before we even look at injuries)

You judge them against their peers.

 

[Herby]

I think one thing that nobody really contemplates, and may actually have a huge impact on anyone drafted in the last 3 years, and probably for the next 2 atleast. Is how much development was lost/impacted by COVID? Not sure how you can compare anyone to a historical timeline when Turcotte/Byfield etc lost probably almost a years worth of development from that. (Before we even look at injuries)

But why isn’t it effecting anyone else? People often use Covid as an excuse for the Kings struggles in developing forwards but that draft has produced multiple players who are or who look like they are well in their way to being impact players. If Covid was such a hindrance to developing players wouldn’t it hit more people than just a couple of Kings picks? Dang you can include two Kings prospects in those guys looking well on their way in Kaliyev and Spence (plus Bjornfot as a more high floor guy).

I acknowledge injuries haven’t helped, but injuries haven’t knocked Jonathan Toews or Mike Richards down to someone struggling to crack the league as a 5OA, it’s knocking an Andrew Copp down to that. And that is the problem, you need stars to win in this league and with the Kings unlikely to get stars out of 5OA and 11OA (with 2OA tbd) and now moving on to a stage of the rebuild where they are trying to compete. And it’s not optimal where you are hoping to game something you can find game breakers late in the 1st or in the 2nd. Those players should have been picked up with those picks, one of them had to be a homerun and neither one looks like it’s going to be one.

 

[kingsfan28]

Turcotte is going to be a hell of a contributor to a good NHL team when he is healthy.

I hope to God this is not a Deadmarsh concussion situation.

No, just weird injuries that you can't predict, especially when they drafted him. No concussion issues. That's Byrum on the Avs who has the concussion problems.

 

[KingLB]

You judge them against their peers.

Except that’s a bad way to judge anyone 2-3 years after a draft year. With that logic you woulda had Oscar Moller leading most of his draft classmates at one point.

 

[KingLB]

But why isn’t it effecting anyone else? People often use Covid as an excuse for the Kings struggles in developing forwards but that draft has produced multiple players who are or who look like they are well in their way to being impact players. If Covid was such a hindrance to developing players wouldn’t it hit more people than just a couple of Kings picks? Dang you can include two Kings prospects in those guys looking well on their way in Kaliyev and Spence (plus Bjornfot as a more high floor guy).

I acknowledge injuries haven’t helped, but injuries haven’t knocked Jonathan Toews or Mike Richards down to someone struggling to crack the league as a 5OA, it’s knocking an Andrew Copp down to that. And that is the problem, you need stars to win in this league and with the Kings unlikely to get stars out of 5OA and 11OA (with 2OA tbd) and now moving on to a stage of the rebuild where they are trying to compete. And it’s not optimal where you are hoping to game something you can find game breakers late in the 1st or in the 2nd. Those players should have been picked up with those picks, one of them had to be a homerun and neither one looks like it’s going to be one.

How can we say it hasn’t impacted anyone else when we don’t know? The impact of the lockout on the 03’ class wasn’t known until much later (in a positive way). We could find out that 19/20/21 etc end up actually producing very little in a few years because of COVID.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

But why isn’t it effecting anyone else? People often use Covid as an excuse for the Kings struggles in developing forwards but that draft has produced multiple players who are or who look like they are well in their way to being impact players. If Covid was such a hindrance to developing players wouldn’t it hit more people than just a couple of Kings picks? Dang you can include two Kings prospects in those guys looking well on their way in Kaliyev and Spence (plus Bjornfot as a more high floor guy).

I acknowledge injuries haven’t helped, but injuries haven’t knocked Jonathan Toews or Mike Richards down to someone struggling to crack the league as a 5OA, it’s knocking an Andrew Copp down to that. And that is the problem, you need stars to win in this league and with the Kings unlikely to get stars out of 5OA and 11OA (with 2OA tbd) and now moving on to a stage of the rebuild where they are trying to compete. And it’s not optimal where you are hoping to game something you can find game breakers late in the 1st or in the 2nd. Those players should have been picked up with those picks, one of them had to be a homerun and neither one looks like it’s going to be one.

How do you feel about Marco Rossi? About Bo Byram?

 

[Herby]

How do you feel about Marco Rossi? About Bo Byram?

Byram has been an effective player in the NHL who has had concussion issues. He has scored at about a .5 ppg pace this season most of those coming at ES. His concussions are concerning but it hasn’t prevented him from being an effective NHL player when healthy. Which for someone taken where he was on the draft is the expectation.

Rossi lost an entire season to a heart ailment (I think) but played most of the games for Minnesotas AHL affiliate and played pretty well. He is in his D+2 and from what I gather from Wild fans has a pretty good chance of making their team out of camp next year.

Byram is on track, Rossi even with the heart ailment isn’t off track if he’s an NHL’er next year. I don’t see how those compare to the only player taken in the top 20 from 2019 who has yet to record a point in the league.

Injuries happen to prospects, it doesn’t mean it should stall a development this much. Josh Norris suffered a pretty serious season ending injury at the WJC’s that caused him to miss over half his NCAA season in an important D+2 year. He had to go through the same Covid issues that everyone else in the world went through. But he returned from the injury and despite missing half the season before was a star in the AHL on D+3, 3rd in rookie scoring in the NHL in his D+4 and scoring at a 45 goal pace as a 22 year old in his D+5. How was he able to overcome those things?

 

[kilowatt]

Given that we literally have a playoff team without most of the prospects, we ought to keep and try to develop any of them that aren't waiver ineligible. I'll be pretty bummed if we lose guys like JAD and Vilardi to waivers, though.

Turcotte's still got plenty of time to get healthy and figure it all out. He just turned 21. At the same age, Kempe had 2 goals and 4 assists in 25 NHL games. Let's see how he does next year when healthy.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Byram has been an effective player in the NHL who has had concussion issues. He has scored at about a .5 ppg pace this season most of those coming at ES. His concussions are concerning but it hasn’t prevented him from being an effective NHL player when healthy. Which for someone taken where he was on the draft is the expectation.

Rossi lost an entire season to a heart ailment (I think) but played most of the games for Minnesotas AHL affiliate and played pretty well. He is in his D+2 and from what I gather from Wild fans has a pretty good chance of making their team out of camp next year.

Byram is on track, Rossi even with the heart ailment isn’t off track if he’s an NHL’er next year. I don’t see how those compare to the only player taken in the top 20 from 2019 who has yet to record a point in the league.

Injuries happen to prospects, it doesn’t mean it should stall a development this much. Josh Norris suffered a pretty serious season ending injury at the WJC’s that caused him to miss over half his NCAA season in an important D+2 year. He had to go through the same Covid issues that everyone else in the world went through. But he returned from the injury and despite missing half the season before was a star in the AHL on D+3, 3rd in rookie scoring in the NHL in his D+4 and scoring at a 45 goal pace as a 22 year old in his D+5. How was he able to overcome those things?

But Rossi ISNT in the NHL. He's played fewer games than Turcotte. YOu keep slamming Turcotte for 'not making the team' but Rossi is in the exact same boat. You're comfortable making alibis and considering context for these guys, but not for ours. You're considering Josh Norris' D+5 year, when you're smashing on turcotte saying if he does nothing at D+4 he's a bust when he outscored your entire list from above...

I'm sorry Herby you are completely inconsistent with what you think is acceptable for non-Kings prospects. You're giving those guys a pass for next year while pre-emptively putting Turcotte on the ropes.

Edit: but more than anything I think it's both premature and unknown to say injuries and Covid haven't affected anyone else, sure some prospects are breaking through, doesn't mean ours have to follow the same path or they're busts, especially when it comes to injuries...ie Norris above. What if Turcotte is scoring at a 60 pt pace in his +5? He's improving every time he hits the ice...hopefully he doesn't get traded before that happens.

Not to mention, most importantly, development is rarely linear. It happens in fits and starts, leaps and bounds, sometimes regressing.

 

[RaymondReddington]

No, just weird injuries that you can't predict, especially when they drafted him. No concussion issues. That's Byrum on the Avs who has the concussion problems.

I was under the impression Turcotte suffered a cheap shot to the head in his last AHL game.
..maybe I'm mistaken..

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I was under the impression Turcotte suffered a cheap shot to the head in his last AHL game.
..maybe I'm mistaken..

Sounds like Turcotte is back tomorrow as per Bernstein fwiw.

We are all guessing on this injury but my guess was concussion, high hard hit from behind. But the rest referenced are correct. Mono, appendicitis, knee...all random unrelated stuff. Strange at least but eerily reminiscent of guys like JW early career too.