Prospect Info: 5th Overall Pick, Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP UPDATED: Signs 3 Year ELC 3/11/20

[kilowatt]

Vilardi was fine last year.
The problem was this year. The Kings f***ed him over.

The problem wasn't even his play this year really, the Kings as a whole sucked for the first week of the season and apparently the coaching staff blamed Vilardi, even though he had the most successful rookie season since Kempe last year.

As for Turcotte (and to a lesser extent Vilardi), I agree with @Raccoon Jesus here. Who's going to part ways with something valuable for Turcotte right now? There's still a decent chance he pans out and he doesn't require waivers until 24-25. There's still plenty of time for him to get healthy, refine his game, and play a significant — if perhaps lessened — role in LA in a couple years.

If Turcotte can be the key piece in a deal a la Brayden Schenn, then sure, maybe we do it. If it's more of a throwaway move like Sam Bennett, well it'd be a real bummer to see him go score 30 goals for another team and all we got back was a late second-round pick.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I mentioned earlier the difference between Danault and, say Miller.

Danault's 'issue' was only age--we got him at a reasonable (bargain?) price, didn't have to trade assets, and have assurances that he'd be a productive player outside of actual scoring. The scoring was a bonus.

JT Miller--age is an issue, we'd have to trade MASSIVE assets, he's coming off a career year, and he's going to take up almost twice the cap as Danault.

Please do not equate the two if you want to be taken seriously.

And besides that, you really only get one-two shots at this--if you choose wrong, you set the org back massively--cap space is finite. If we blow it all on Filip Forsberg or JT Miller and they decline in two years...well, you read all of the above.

 

[lumbergh]

Maybe a better question is, what would the Kings pay for JT Miller as a rental? Let's say the Kings get some playoff experience this season but come up short. I think everyone here understands that they're not in contender status right now, but adding a scoring winger could elevate them to that status.

Blake knows the market is better in the offseason versus the trade deadline. Instead of adding a rental at the deadline, maybe Blake just makes his move in July or August. JT Miller is a very good all around veteran winger who brings a quick release and good size, exactly the kinds of characteristics a team looks for come February.

If I were Blake I would try to make a move for Miller, but think of him as a rental. I don't know what Vancouver would be looking for, but the Kings have a stock of prospects with no room on the Kings in the foreseeable future. If a Kupari/Turcotte + Durzi + a pick will get it done, I would consider paying that for a year of JT Miller, depending on the pick.

 

[Mats26]

It's a great ideal to overpay for Miller who just had his career high season, one year away from UFA...sarcasm!

U think a division rival would let him go for just kids? Canucks will make a run for the playoffs next season just like the Kings, they are not trading their best player to us without a massive overpayment so that it hurts us too.

Iafallo + Walker\Durzi\Bjornfot +Turcotte\Vilardi + pick .... with an extension for Miller in place and a small add.

We are not going to trade prospects for soon to be UFAs.

 

[tbrown33]

Maybe a better question is, what would the Kings pay for JT Miller as a rental? Let's say the Kings get some playoff experience this season but come up short. I think everyone here understands that they're not in contender status right now, but adding a scoring winger could elevate them to that status.

Blake knows the market is better in the offseason versus the trade deadline. Instead of adding a rental at the deadline, maybe Blake just makes his move in July or August. JT Miller is a very good all around veteran winger who brings a quick release and good size, exactly the kinds of characteristics a team looks for come February.

If I were Blake I would try to make a move for Miller, but think of him as a rental. I don't know what Vancouver would be looking for, but the Kings have a stock of prospects with no room on the Kings in the foreseeable future. If a Kupari/Turcotte + Durzi + a pick will get it done, I would consider paying that for a year of JT Miller, depending on the pick.

did we learn nothing from the Lucic trade

 

[Herby]

did we learn nothing from the Lucic trade

Miller is a significantly better player than Lucic and the Kings would have the cap space to offer Miller an extension which they didn’t with Lucic. It’s also not as likely that this years draft pick would be a Barzal/Connor caliber player, and assuming the Kings are much better next year adding back Doughty + a high end first line talent in Miller that pick is likely near the end of the first. Durzi and Turcotte aren’t without some value but both are depth pieces who can be replaced rather easily.

The situations are not really to similar.

Although I do agree with those who have said that Vancouver would never do this trade without getting back one of the Kings key young players, players like Miller aren’t readily available all the time and the return would be huge. That is why in this hypothetical it makes so much sense. The Kings solve their biggest organizational need by getting a star offensive player without giving up Byfield, Kaliyev or Clarke.

 

[Telos]

Uh, JT Miller put up 10 points in his first 56 games in the NHL. Based on our discussions here, such players are to be considered busts and are not worthy of our time. We only deal with superstars out of the gate please and thanks.

 

[Schmooley]

Uh, JT Miller put up 10 points in his first 56 games in the NHL. Based on our discussions here, such players are to be considered busts and are not worthy of our time. We only deal with superstars out of the gate please and thanks.

Yea he was traded for peanuts by the Rangers and got an ok haul for Tampa before he broke out. We should have some patience with the young players in the system.

 

[Herby]

Uh, JT Miller put up 10 points in his first 56 games in the NHL. Based on our discussions here, such players are to be considered busts and are not worthy of our time. We only deal with superstars out of the gate please and thanks.

Who says anyone is a bust, are you referring to QB?

This Line of thinking is often said here and I just don’t see it, who is calling QB a bust or not worthy of discussion?

 

[kilowatt]

Let's play a slightly different hypothetical game. Let's keep all of our prospects. Every single one. Where do they all play? Here's when guys will no longer be waiver exempt by season:

22-23: Sodergran, Anderson-Dolan, Vilardi, Durzi, Anderson
23-24: Madden, Fagemo, Thomas, Dudas, Kupari, Bjornfot
24-25: Turcotte, Kaliyev, Byfield, Spence,
25-26: Helenius, Chromiak, Grans, Nousiainen
26-27: Pinelli, Clarke

Do Anderson-Dolan and Vilardi have homes on the team next season? We'll certainly be re-signing Kempe and likely Lemieux. That says nothing of Athanasiou, who has honestly played great since coming back from injury. I think it's almost certain that Brown comes back (unless we win a cup and he goes out on a high). Andersson and Grundstrom? Maybe they walk or get traded?

Kempe - Kopitar - Kaliyev
Moore - Danault - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Byfield - Vilardi
Lemiux - Lizotte - Brown
Anderson-Dolan, Kupari

...and who leaves the following year when guys like Madden, Fagemo, Thomas, and Kupari need to be on the team? Are Moore and Arvidsson leaving? Do we trade Vilardi? Anderson-Dolan? Madden? Thomas?

We can't keep all these guys even if we wanted to.

 

[tbrown33]

Let's play a slightly different hypothetical game. Let's keep all of our prospects. Every single one. Where do they all play? Here's when guys will no longer be waiver exempt by season:

22-23: Sodergran, Anderson-Dolan, Vilardi, Durzi, Anderson
23-24: Madden, Fagemo, Thomas, Dudas, Kupari, Bjornfot
24-25: Turcotte, Kaliyev, Byfield, Spence,
25-26: Helenius, Chromiak, Grans, Nousiainen
26-27: Pinelli, Clarke

Do Anderson-Dolan and Vilardi have homes on the team next season? We'll certainly be re-signing Kempe and likely Lemieux. That says nothing of Athanasiou, who has honestly played great since coming back from injury. I think it's almost certain that Brown comes back (unless we win a cup and he goes out on a high). Andersson and Grundstrom? Maybe they walk or get traded?

Kempe - Kopitar - Kaliyev
Moore - Danault - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Byfield - Vilardi
Lemiux - Lizotte - Brown
Anderson-Dolan, Kupari

...and who leaves the following year when guys like Madden, Fagemo, Thomas, and Kupari need to be on the team? Are Moore and Arvidsson leaving? Do we trade Vilardi? Anderson-Dolan? Madden? Thomas?

We can't keep all these guys even if we wanted to.

I dont think anyone is advocating for keeping them all - simply do not trade multiple assets for an expiring contract. Not sure how JT Miller became the only available winger, either.

Fact of the matter is the Kings are loaded at a position that is always a position of need throughout the NHL (RHD). The Kings are in the driver’s seat here.

 

[lumbergh]

did we learn nothing from the Lucic trade

That you should never try to upgrade your lineup via trade? What did you learn from the Gaborik trade? Or the Regehr trade? or the Carter trade?

When it's time to go for it, you go for it or you wimp out because it's too risky. I understand both approaches. Window is opening. You can wait and watch for it to open or you can push it open.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That you should never try to upgrade your lineup via trade? What did you learn from the Gaborik trade? Or the Regehr trade? or the Carter trade?

When it's time to go for it, you go for it or you wimp out because it's too risky. I understand both approaches. Window is opening. You can wait and watch for it to open or you can push it open.

That's easy.

We learned from the Lucic trade that trading for an older pending UFA, even when the window is open, is a last-ditch effort and will purge your assets and look even worse when the player leaves as a free agent (Miller, cough cough).

We learned from the Gaborik trade that if you can get a malcontent scorer for pennies on the dollar at the deadline and you're a contender, go for it. I'm sure if we could have gotten, say, Laine or Hoffman for Lias Andersson, Matt Villalta, and a 5th, we would have.

We learned the value of tough defense from the Regehr trade and the 2 2nds value is pretty much going rate for a guy of his caliber, but we obviously have plenty of defense and Blake pulled Stecher for a 7th soooo

We learned from the Carter trade, similar to the Richards--most importantly--that when your window is opening and you need some punch it's probably the best idea to give up assets for long-term AND cost-controlled players that you hope those prospects become anyway. You won't find anyone here resisting, say, a trade for DeBrincat or even Timo Meier.

I don't like the rhetoric that not wanting to trade young prospects for UFAs approaching 30 means we are resistant to moving assets. That's clearly not the case. I'm all for pushing open the window but it's gotta be for several years, not the next 1-2.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

That's easy.

We learned from the Lucic trade that trading for an older pending UFA, even when the window is open, is a last-ditch effort and will purge your assets and look even worse when the player leaves as a free agent (Miller, cough cough).

We learned from the Gaborik trade that if you can get a malcontent scorer for pennies on the dollar at the deadline and you're a contender, go for it. I'm sure if we could have gotten, say, Laine or Hoffman for Lias Andersson, Matt Villalta, and a 5th, we would have.

We learned the value of tough defense from the Regehr trade and the 2 2nds value is pretty much going rate for a guy of his caliber, but we obviously have plenty of defense and Blake pulled Stecher for a 7th soooo

We learned from the Carter trade, similar to the Richards--most importantly--that when your window is opening and you need some punch it's probably the best idea to give up assets for long-term AND cost-controlled players that you hope those prospects become anyway. You won't find anyone here resisting, say, a trade for DeBrincat or even Timo Meier.

I don't like the rhetoric that not wanting to trade young prospects for UFAs approaching 30 means we are resistant to moving assets. That's clearly not the case. I'm all for pushing open the window but it's gotta be for several years, not the next 1-2.

After all that,

Our window is kind of.....50/50 it's not necessarily wide open, nor is it slammed shut,

I don't think a trade for Miller is remotely the same as a trade for Lucic, the trade for Lucic we had crumbs in the cupboards, that literally drained our assets, now...we have plenty of crap in the cupboard, we have to clear some space out,

Is Miller the right guy to do it for? Depends, are you doing it as a rental, or as a long term play? I think if it's a rental, sure, you pay the 22nd 1st and Durzi...or whomever, but you know someone will beat that who wants Miller long term,

Is it Lainie? Do we but together an offer for Laine that would if not empty the cupboards, cut them clearly in half?

I think we absolutely have to get a top six winger, question is, where, who and how

 

[Telos]

Who says anyone is a bust, are you referring to QB?

This Line of thinking is often said here and I just don’t see it, who is calling QB a bust or not worthy of discussion?

This thread and discussion aren't about QB, but I am just joshing around and having fun with the player that is being discussed was a 15th overall that was still trying to prove himself being sent back to the AHL D+4 and didn't break through until D+5. It's ironic and funny given our prospect situation

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Funny, the player id keep an eye @Herby already mentioned. If they go out early again I’d take a shot at Marner, not many teams have assets and cap space to afford him. And he’s skilled and decent defensively.

Trade for Marner, add Nichuskin for the 3rd line as a ufa.

Kempe-Kopitar-Marner
Moore-Danault-Arvidsson
Nichuskin-Byfield-Kaliyev
Lemieux-Lizotte-Kupari

That lineup is a handful if the 2 kids double their production. I don’t think we need Nichuskin though. I really like Lardo in that spot if he wasn’t in the Marner trade. What do we trade for Marner?

Turcotte, Durzi, 2022 1st, and Iafollo? I don’t think Toronto bites?

 

[Herby]

Funny, the player id keep an eye @Herby already mentioned. If they go out early again I’d take a shot at Marner, not many teams have assets and cap space to afford him. And he’s skilled and decent defensively.

Trade for Marner, add Nichuskin for the 3rd line as a ufa.

Kempe-Kopitar-Marner
Moore-Danault-Arvidsson
Nichuskin-Byfield-Kaliyev
Lemieux-Lizotte-Kupari

I'm surprised the usual suspects who hate anyone who doesn't have the grit of Richards, the size of Chara and the skill of Crosby haven't ripped this idea to shreds. Last summer they all said they wouldn't take Marner for free, so goodluck discussing giving assets.

The problem with your suggested idea is that even if say Toronto chokes again and decides to make a big change, Byfield is 100% going to be involved in the trade. There is no other starting point asset that makes sense unless Doughty suddenly decided he wanted to chase a cup in Toronto.

And btw to keep it on topic of the thread and since I had this post written and forgot to hit send. Here is something to consider for those who don't think that time is quickly running out for this prospect.

Since the lockout, here is the list of every Top 10 pick who hadn't established themselves as an NHL regulars (50%+ games in NHL) by the end of D+4 (next season for Turcotte)

Gilbert Brule
Thomas Hickey
Zach Hamill
Nikita Filatov
Scott Glennie
Brett Connolly
Dylan McIlrath
Griffin Reinhart
Derrick Pouliot
Slater Koekkoek
Michael Del Colle
Haydn Fleury
Olli Juolevi
Alex Nylander
Cody Glass


Sorry, we can't keep preaching patience. This list is a graveyard of top 10 busts that no one wants to see a Kings prospect join. The Kings have to do everything they can to try and make Turcotte an NHL regular next season or they risk a total flame out.

 

[kingsfan28]

I'm surprised the usual suspects who hate anyone who doesn't have the grit of Richards, the size of Chara and the skill of Crosby haven't ripped this idea to shreds. Last summer they all said they wouldn't take Marner for free, so goodluck discussing giving assets.

The problem with your suggested idea is that even if say Toronto chokes again and decides to make a big change, Byfield is 100% going to be involved in the trade. There is no other starting point asset that makes sense unless Doughty suddenly decided he wanted to chase a cup in Toronto.

And btw to keep it on topic of the thread and since I had this post written and forgot to hit send. Here is something to consider for those who don't think that time is quickly running out for this prospect.

Since the lockout, here is the list of every Top 10 pick who hadn't established themselves as an NHL regulars (50%+ games in NHL) by the end of D+4 (next season for Turcotte)

Gilbert Brule
Thomas Hickey
Zach Hamill
Nikita Filatov
Scott Glennie
Brett Connolly
Dylan McIlrath
Griffin Reinhart
Derrick Pouliot
Slater Koekkoek
Michael Del Colle
Haydn Fleury
Olli Juolevi
Alex Nylander
Cody Glass


Sorry, we can't keep preaching patience. This list is a graveyard of top 10 busts that no one wants to see a Kings prospect join. The Kings have to do everything they can to try and make Turcotte an NHL regular next season or they risk a total flame out.

Just curious, out of all those guys, and the current picks in his draft, how many have had the health problems he has had? Have you ever factored this into your constant criticism of his slow development? I'm sure mono, the hand injury, appenacitis during camp this year, covid, and the other injury have had nothing to do with it at all. These are facts. He has admitted that this has slowed his development, and I'm sure the front office has too. You can't predict these things when you draft a guy [no matter where], no more than you can predict a guy taken in the 7th will be a hall of famer. It sucks it happened to our guy, but who's to say if they drafted someone else, it doesn't happen to them too. We all want to see a healthy Turcotte play on this team, it just hasn't happened yet.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I'm surprised the usual suspects who hate anyone who doesn't have the grit of Richards, the size of Chara and the skill of Crosby haven't ripped this idea to shreds. Last summer they all said they wouldn't take Marner for free, so goodluck discussing giving assets.

The problem with your suggested idea is that even if say Toronto chokes again and decides to make a big change, Byfield is 100% going to be involved in the trade. There is no other starting point asset that makes sense unless Doughty suddenly decided he wanted to chase a cup in Toronto.

And btw to keep it on topic of the thread and since I had this post written and forgot to hit send. Here is something to consider for those who don't think that time is quickly running out for this prospect.

Since the lockout, here is the list of every Top 10 pick who hadn't established themselves as an NHL regulars (50%+ games in NHL) by the end of D+4 (next season for Turcotte)

Gilbert Brule
Thomas Hickey
Zach Hamill
Nikita Filatov
Scott Glennie
Brett Connolly
Dylan McIlrath
Griffin Reinhart
Derrick Pouliot
Slater Koekkoek
Michael Del Colle
Haydn Fleury
Olli Juolevi
Alex Nylander
Cody Glass


Sorry, we can't keep preaching patience. This list is a graveyard of top 10 busts that no one wants to see a Kings prospect join. The Kings have to do everything they can to try and make Turcotte an NHL regular next season or they risk a total flame out.

Clarke would be the one that would probably interest Toronto more than Byfield.....

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Just curious, out of all those guys, and the current picks in his draft, how many have had the health problems he has had? Have you ever factored this into your constant criticism of his slow development? I'm sure mono, the hand injury, appenacitis during camp this year, covid, and the other injury have had nothing to do with it at all. These are facts. He has admitted that this has slowed his development, and I'm sure the front office has too. You can't predict these things when you draft a guy [no matter where], no more than you can predict a guy taken in the 7th will be a hall of famer. It sucks it happened to our guy, but who's to say if they drafted someone else, it doesn't happen to them too. We all want to see a healthy Turcotte play on this team, it just hasn't happened yet.

Beat me to it.

Only ones I can think of that had similar issues are Juolevi and Brule.

In fact, just going down the list:
-We know all too well about Hickey. But that's not a Turcotte situation, that was a reach all along.

-Hamill sucked all along, Turcotte has twice the production rate at the same age, Turcotte's rookie AHL year far outscores even Hamill's age 24 AHL year...no injuries, jsut bad.

-Filatov is interesting if only because their age 20 AHL years are so similar, but the wheels fell off after that for Filatov. not so for Turcotte.

-Glennie---very similar to Hamill. No comparison to Turcotte.

-Brett Connolly--I mean, he absolutely blew up the AHL and had 5-6 really good NHL seasons. Of course you want more from 6OA/

-McIlrath was a crap pick at the time anyway but as a big SAH d-man it's hard to compare to Turcotte.

-Reinhart--at Turcotte's age wasnt' even putting up half a point per game in juniors never mind the AHL.

-Pouliot--Turcotte's current production looks like DP's next three years worth.

-Koekoek--Dman, not sure how to compare, he just never took another step, was weird.

-Dal Colle--might be the best comparable but Turcotte still FAR outproduced him, like Hamill and Glennie.

-Fleury--another big dman, not gonna bother comparing

-Juolevi I covered above

-Alex Nylander--similar to above, Turcotte outproduced him in AHL, difference is Nylander got some NHL time after this point.

-Cody Glass--Similar AHL production, couldn't seem to take a spot in VGK, might be a good similarity in terms of situation and all, but like Turcotte, book not closed.

In summary, Herby continues to try really hard to ignore context on Turcotte, and that is the injury setbacks have meant he hasn't played nearly as many games as most on this list--yet he's still outproduced literally all of them at the same age at the same level. if anything, thanks for the encouragement that he's actually ahead of guys who have played twice as many pro games at this point!

 

[apocalypse]

Let's play a slightly different hypothetical game. Let's keep all of our prospects. Every single one. Where do they all play? Here's when guys will no longer be waiver exempt by season:

22-23: Sodergran, Anderson-Dolan, Vilardi, Durzi, Anderson
23-24: Madden, Fagemo, Thomas, Dudas, Kupari, Bjornfot
24-25: Turcotte, Kaliyev, Byfield, Spence,
25-26: Helenius, Chromiak, Grans, Nousiainen
26-27: Pinelli, Clarke

Do Anderson-Dolan and Vilardi have homes on the team next season? We'll certainly be re-signing Kempe and likely Lemieux. That says nothing of Athanasiou, who has honestly played great since coming back from injury. I think it's almost certain that Brown comes back (unless we win a cup and he goes out on a high). Andersson and Grundstrom? Maybe they walk or get traded?

Kempe - Kopitar - Kaliyev
Moore - Danault - Arvidsson
Iafallo - Byfield - Vilardi
Lemiux - Lizotte - Brown
Anderson-Dolan, Kupari

...and who leaves the following year when guys like Madden, Fagemo, Thomas, and Kupari need to be on the team? Are Moore and Arvidsson leaving? Do we trade Vilardi? Anderson-Dolan? Madden? Thomas?

We can't keep all these guys even if we wanted to.

I think you give AA a flyer. 2 year contract. Kaliyev hasn't proven anything yet.

 

[BigKing]

Hard to compare eras going all the way back to the lockout and using AHL production. Seems like scoring is easier than 15 years ago, no?

 

[tny760]

I think you give AA a flyer. 2 year contract. Kaliyev hasn't proven anything yet.

15 goals from a bottom 6 winger with limited PP minutes? alright i guess..

not to mention the growth in board battles and general compete level

 

[apocalypse]

Miller is a significantly better player than Lucic and the Kings would have the cap space to offer Miller an extension which they didn’t with Lucic. It’s also not as likely that this years draft pick would be a Barzal/Connor caliber player, and assuming the Kings are much better next year adding back Doughty + a high end first line talent in Miller that pick is likely near the end of the first. Durzi and Turcotte aren’t without some value but both are depth pieces who can be replaced rather easily.

The situations are not really to similar.

Although I do agree with those who have said that Vancouver would never do this trade without getting back one of the Kings key young players, players like Miller aren’t readily available all the time and the return would be huge. That is why in this hypothetical it makes so much sense. The Kings solve their biggest organizational need by getting a star offensive player without giving up Byfield, Kaliyev or Clarke.

Do not want Miller. We'll see what this team needs, but I would not roll the dice on Miller just yet. You wait on something like this. The Kings might need a high-caliber offensive star a la Panarin or they might just need a Miller-Forsberg type. Who knows right now?

 

[SFKingshomer]

I'm surprised the usual suspects who hate anyone who doesn't have the grit of Richards, the size of Chara and the skill of Crosby haven't ripped this idea to shreds. Last summer they all said they wouldn't take Marner for free, so goodluck discussing giving assets.

The problem with your suggested idea is that even if say Toronto chokes again and decides to make a big change, Byfield is 100% going to be involved in the trade. There is no other starting point asset that makes sense unless Doughty suddenly decided he wanted to chase a cup in Toronto.

And btw to keep it on topic of the thread and since I had this post written and forgot to hit send. Here is something to consider for those who don't think that time is quickly running out for this prospect.

Since the lockout, here is the list of every Top 10 pick who hadn't established themselves as an NHL regulars (50%+ games in NHL) by the end of D+4 (next season for Turcotte)

Gilbert Brule
Thomas Hickey
Zach Hamill
Nikita Filatov
Scott Glennie
Brett Connolly
Dylan McIlrath
Griffin Reinhart
Derrick Pouliot
Slater Koekkoek
Michael Del Colle
Haydn Fleury
Olli Juolevi
Alex Nylander
Cody Glass


Sorry, we can't keep preaching patience. This list is a graveyard of top 10 busts that no one wants to see a Kings prospect join. The Kings have to do everything they can to try and make Turcotte an NHL regular next season or they risk a total flame out.

Has a player making as much as Marner ever been traded for a teams top asset?