Prospect Info: 5th Overall Pick, Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP UPDATED: Signs 3 Year ELC 3/11/20

BigKing

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There are those on here that are the "this is fine" meme with Kings prospects until they are on waivers and there are those that claim bust when a guy doesn't come in and light it up.

I get that the Moller comparison makes people upset but it is more a commentary on the "this is fine" crowd that seems to believe every prospect is going to make it. You can insert many other Kings prospects over the years instead and the point remains the same.

We shouldn't be tossing dirt on Turcotte or Vilardi yet but to not have any concerns at this point is willful ignorance. It also just seems like common sense that Blake is going to eventually move one or two of these center prospects and Akil Thomas isn't the one bringing back anything of value so we might not want to get too attached to these two guys. That said, I hope they reach their full potential and--if so--it is in a Kings sweater.
 
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Herby

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The three being discussed are not equal though.

Vilardi has a really wide range of outcomes. There have been plenty of guys like him with one glaring weakness who figure it out around 22/23 and end up being solid offensive options. There are also plenty of guys like him who just end up being AAAA players. I'd say it's 50/50 for Vilardi, the biggest concern is that even if option one hits it often hits due to a change of scenery. Since Gabe was demoted the Kings have played Kupari, Byfield, Turcotte, Fagemo ,JAD and Tynam in the NHL lineup over him. If Vilardi isn't traded between now and the end of training camp what is going to change to move him up the Kings pecking order of young players?

Turcotte has a much more narrow range of outcomes, he's going to be an NHL player but hoping he scores enough to play a top 6 role consistently is going to be a lot to ask of someone with his skill set and the poor development choices made with him. The modern NHL is all about having a third line that can chip in some offense and provide an all around game, those guys are valuable, probably not what you are looking for out of a Top 5 pick but he will play. If he can be an Andrew Copp type player those guys still serve a purpose.

Byfield it's still to soon to draw any conclusions other than to say he's not Kopitar or Doughty where you just knew right away he was going to be a star. By this time next year you have to hope you have a solid contributing member of the team, but right now he is learning stuff he should have learned last year and has gone through some peaks and valleys so far as an NHL'er.

As far as some of the other players discussed, Zegras is doing exactly what he was drafted to do. He is an offensive player that is producing offense for a team still in the playoff race. Sure he has some faults in his game, but it's easier to fix his faults than to find a player that generates offense like he does.

Detroit has found their two building block stars, give Yzerman credit, everyone called him crazy for taking Seider and the guy is a phenom, he has looked like a 10 year all-star from the second he stepped on the ice this year as a 20 year old. Very much like a young Drew in that regard. Raymond is already a 1st line talent at 19. Yeah he's not great every game (like vs. Kings) but neither was Kopitar when he was a 19 year old rookie either. Also, not really fair to blame Detroit's best 4-5 players for the teams overall lack of success, Seider, Larkin, Bertuzzi and Raymond have played at a level that could have gotten them into a playoff spot if they had any kind of depth. They have many guys throughout their lineup who should not be on NHL rosters.
 

kilowatt

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There are those on here that are the "this is fine" meme with Kings prospects until they ae on waivers and there are those that claim bust when a guy doesn't come in and light it up.

I get that the Moller comparison makes people upset but it is more a commentary on the "this is fine" crowd that seems to believe every prospect is going to make it. You can insert many other Kings prospects over the years instead and the point remains the same.

We shouldn't be tossing dirt on Turcotte or Vilardi yet but to not have any concerns at this point is willful ignorance. It also just seems like common sense that Blake is going to eventually move one or two of these center prospects and Akil Thomas isn't the one bringing back anything of value so we might not want to get too attached to these two guys. That said, I hope they reach their full potential and--if so--it is in a Kings sweater.

Both of these guys — Vilardi and Turcotte — have top six winger potential though. The bottom line is that our top three centers aren't going anywhere for a long time — Kopitar, Danault, and Byfield are set in stone. The pecking order might (or perhaps hopefully) change, but the names will stay the same. The only question that remains is can we slot Kupari, Turcotte, and Vilardi on the wings?

We essentially have three top-nine left wings (Kempe, Iafallo, and Turcotte), three top-nine centers (Kopitar, Danault, and Byfield), and three top-nine right wings (Kaliyev, Vilardi, and Kupari). Where does that leave guys like Arvidsson, Athanasiou, and Moore? What about JAD, Fagemo, and Madden? Sheesh, we've got some questions to answer.

Long term, I'd love to see:

Turcotte - Kopitar - Kaliyev
Kempe - Byfield - Vilardi
Iafallo - Danault - Kupari

I'm not sure what the fourth line might look like, but I could certainly see some combination of JAD, Lizotte, Moore, and Lemieux. I could also see us sending Kupari for an upgrade in net or on the backend, slotting Arvidsson next to Danault.

We're finally reaching a point next season where Vilardi and JAD have to be on the roster or else we'll certainly lose them to waivers. It'll be interesting to see where they slot in.
 

Fingolfin

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Regarding Vilardi, I think the reason he hasn’t been called up yet compared to the others is that the org wants him to get comfortable on the wing. It’s worth the time to let him really figure it out before bringing him back up.

Regarding Byfield, it’s important to remember that Kopitar spent his D+1 year playing against men in Sweden. He came to camp at 19, adjusted to the speed and strength of an adult game. Byfield on the other hand is a year younger, has less time playing against men, and had an injury setback. He’ll be fine once he adjusts.
 

Fishhead

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Regarding Vilardi, I think the reason he hasn’t been called up yet compared to the others is that the org wants him to get comfortable on the wing. It’s worth the time to let him really figure it out before bringing him back up.

Bingo. They are also giving just about everyone a taste and a look to see how they respond when they go back down and if they are willing to put in the work they need to. It’s pretty plain to see they are evaluating which players they want to keep long term. Tynan’s stint was just a reward.
 

tbrown33

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I'm not sure what the fourth line might look like, but I could certainly see some combination of JAD, Lizotte, Moore, and Lemieux. I could also see us sending Kupari for an upgrade in net or on the backend, slotting Arvidsson next to Danault.

Not to mention the massive pileup that's about to happen on defense. Something's gotta give sooner or later. At least it's a good problem to have.
 

kilowatt

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Not to mention the massive pileup that's about to happen on defense. Something's gotta give sooner or later. At least it's a good problem to have.

I really wouldn't be upset trying to trade some of our prospects for picks. Not sure who or what or where, but kicking the can down the road a bit is exactly what this organization needs. Having a stocked cupboard is one thing, having a place to play everyone is another. If we're trading some of these prospects, I hope it's for some really elite players.
 

kilowatt

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Regarding Vilardi, I think the reason he hasn’t been called up yet compared to the others is that the org wants him to get comfortable on the wing. It’s worth the time to let him really figure it out before bringing him back up.

Regarding Byfield, it’s important to remember that Kopitar spent his D+1 year playing against men in Sweden. He came to camp at 19, adjusted to the speed and strength of an adult game. Byfield on the other hand is a year younger, has less time playing against men, and had an injury setback. He’ll be fine once he adjusts.

It's also important to remember that all the hard work he did in the offseason was essentially moot post-injury. It can take a long time to get back into game shape.
 

Herby

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Both of these guys — Vilardi and Turcotte — have top six winger potential though. The bottom line is that our top three centers aren't going anywhere for a long time — Kopitar, Danault, and Byfield are set in stone. The pecking order might (or perhaps hopefully) change, but the names will stay the same. The only question that remains is can we slot Kupari, Turcotte, and Vilardi on the wings?

We essentially have three top-nine left wings (Kempe, Iafallo, and Turcotte), three top-nine centers (Kopitar, Danault, and Byfield), and three top-nine right wings (Kaliyev, Vilardi, and Kupari). Where does that leave guys like Arvidsson, Athanasiou, and Moore? What about JAD, Fagemo, and Madden? Sheesh, we've got some questions to answer.

Long term, I'd love to see:

Turcotte - Kopitar - Kaliyev
Kempe - Byfield - Vilardi
Iafallo - Danault - Kupari

I'm not sure what the fourth line might look like, but I could certainly see some combination of JAD, Lizotte, Moore, and Lemieux. I could also see us sending Kupari for an upgrade in net or on the backend, slotting Arvidsson next to Danault.

We're finally reaching a point next season where Vilardi and JAD have to be on the roster or else we'll certainly lose them to waivers. It'll be interesting to see where they slot in.

Moore is going nowhere, he is an ideal third line winger in the modern NHL. Arviddson is scoring at a 25/60 pace this season in the NHL, has a favorable contract for his production and will still be under 30 next season. Why would a team that is surely going to try and make the playoffs next season trade him, for likely a draft pick? And what young player matches VA's production this season? I would say its a very big longshot that any of them do.

You think Turcotte scores enough to play along side our best playmaking center? Wasn't a goal-scorer in college, not a goal-scorer in the AHL, tough to expect him to be a 1st line scorer in the NHL. Kopitar is also a year older and the goal-scoring will likely fall off some, 20-23 is probably the max Kopitar scores. Not going to be enough offense from line 1 unless AK explodes into a 40 goal guy. I still think the better solution is bringing in a natural goal-scoring winger to play beside Kopitar and whoever (Kaliyev is fine)

You have 14 roster spots for forwards next season

1. Kopitar
2. Danault
3. Kempe
4. Iafallo
5. Moore
6. Kaliyev
7. Arviddson
8. Byfield
9. Lizotte
10. Lemieux (or someone with some toughness)

So that leaves four roster spots between a combination Vilardi*, JAD*, Grundstrom, Turcotte, Kupari, Fagemo, Andersson*, Brown (I hope not but lets be realistic) + (any FA signings).

*Waiver eligible

I think the solution is quite clear, there aren't enough spots for all these guys, they have to trade a couple of them to try and improve deficiencies on defense or on the wing.

Regarding Byfield, it’s important to remember that Kopitar spent his D+1 year playing against men in Sweden. He came to camp at 19, adjusted to the speed and strength of an adult game. Byfield on the other hand is a year younger, has less time playing against men, and had an injury setback. He’ll be fine once he adjusts.

Byfield is not Kopitar, that is not a knock on QB, Kopitar is destined for the Hall of Fame and was one of the best two-way players of his generation.

You are right though, QB has at times looked overwhelmed with the NHL speed this season, which again begs the question, what on Earth did he gain out of 32 games in the AHL last year? QB had 32 games in the AHL last year, it clearly did not prepare him as well as the Kings probably expected it too. He would be further along had he played 40 or so games in the NHL last year and also not wasted his time at the WJC's.
 
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kilowatt

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Moore is going nowhere, he is an ideal third line winger in the modern NHL. Arviddson is scoring at a 25/60 pace this season in the NHL, has a favorable contract for his production and will still be under 30 next season. Why would a team that is surely going to try and make the playoffs next season trade him, for likely a draft pick?

You think Turcotte scores enough to play along side our best playmaking center? Wasn't a goal-scorer in college, not a goal-scorer in the AHL, tough to expect him to be a 1st line scorer in the NHL. Kopitar is also a year older and the goal-scoring will likely fall off some, 20-23 is probably the max Kopitar scores. Not going to be enough offense from line 1 unless AK explodes into a 40 goal guy. I still think the better solution is bringing in a natural goal-scoring winger to play beside Kopitar and whoever (Kaliyev is fine)

You have 14 roster spots for forwards next season

1. Kopitar
2. Danault
3. Kempe
4. Iafallo
5. Moore
6. Kaliyev
7. Arviddson
8. Byfield
9. Lizotte
10. Lemieux (or someone with some toughness)

So that leaves four roster spots between a combination Vilardi*, JAD*, Grundstrom, Turcotte, Kupari, Fagemo, Andersson*, Brown (I hope not but lets be realistic) + (any FA signings).

*Waiver eligible

I think the solution is quite clear, there aren't enough spots for all these guys, they have to trade a couple of them to try and improve deficiencies on defense or on the wing.

In case it wasn’t clear, I did say long term. Arvidsson and Moore aren’t going anywhere right now.
 
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cyclones22

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Ultimately, it's the question of building a team to support Kopitar and Doughty to try and win big now or building a team where Kopitar and Doughty are the support. Which option stands to provide a higher level of success? Right now the Kings are in that in between territory. Anze is 35 this offseason, Drew 33 in December. Will management have the courage to slide those guys down the lineup when it becomes obvious they should? Or are they 1st line/1st pairing until they retire? I have my doubts as Dustin Brown is still on the power-play at 37 years old.
 

Herby

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Ultimately, it's the question of building a team to support Kopitar and Doughty to try and win big now or building a team where Kopitar and Doughty are the support. Which option stands to provide a higher level of success? Right now the Kings are in that in between territory. Anze is 35 this offseason, Drew 33 in December. Will management have the courage to slide those guys down the lineup when it becomes obvious they should? Or are they 1st line/1st pairing until they retire? I have my doubts as Dustin Brown is still on the power-play at 37 years old.

Who is even close to threatening either guys spot on the roster though?

Doughty is still clearly the best defenseman and Kopitar is still clearly the best all-around forward.
 
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BigKing

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While I can't say that the organization doesn't do a LITTLE narrative crafting...

I can honestly say that Fox wasn't fed any questions about Turcotte and to the best of my knowledge his comment about him on that episode wasn't scripted or motivated by anybody.

Having said that... I think his quote is somewhat taken out of context and has sort of taken on a life of his own. The whole lot of us that watch the team and comment on it FOR the team sit around and talk a lot of stuff and nonsense and we don't always agree and we're all frequently wrong.

Mayor gets some info hand fed to him but some of it is total speculation. Same with all of us. There's been stuff that I've known about and couldn't say and there's been stuff that catches me completely off guard.

None of that is helpful I suppose but just saying I don't think in this particular case the organization is trying to craft any narrative by slowly dripping out little comments like that. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

...or Fox is just really good at getting the ball rolling on lowering the Turcotte expectations?

I'm almost entirely kidding. I didn't listen (no offense as I don't listen to any Kings podcasts) but it just seemed preposterous to me that Fox would claim they had Turcotte pegged as a 3C when they drafted him. If that's what you mean by the quote taking on a life of its own, then I agree with you. Makes much more sense if Fox is saying that's where they see him slotting in for the future but, even then, that is a future that seems to not take place until 2025 when Kopitar's contract expires. Really seems like he is going to have to play wing for a couple of seasons unless Lizotte is not retained and he takes his spot.
 

Fingolfin

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You are right though, QB has at times looked overwhelmed with the NHL speed this season, which again begs the question, what on Earth did he gain out of 32 games in the AHL last year? QB had 32 games in the AHL last year, it clearly did not prepare him as well as the Kings probably expected it too. He would be further along had he played 40 or so games in the NHL last year and also not wasted his time at the WJC's.

What Byfield gained from those 32 games last season was not missing an entire year of hockey. The OHL was shut down. The Kings weren’t trying to prep him to jump right to the NHL, they just wanted him to play, and the fact that he got to play against men was an added bonus of the strange COVID arrangements last year. Hell, he shouldn’t even have been allowed to play in the AHL *this* year, and the Kings would have been forced to make the OHL/NHL decision with him.

At the end of the day, I think Byfield lucked out with the COVID exemptions and benefitted a lot more from this AHL/NHL experience than if he had been in the stuck at the OHL level the whole time.

At this point, it would probably be best for LA to either get him more productive linemates and minutes, or to just send him back to the AHL to develop more. He’s not really being put in a position to succeed the way Kopitar (who played with Frolov and Cammalleri his first game) was when he started out.
 

All The Kings Men

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You are right though, QB has at times looked overwhelmed with the NHL speed this season, which again begs the question, what on Earth did he gain out of 32 games in the AHL last year? QB had 32 games in the AHL last year, it clearly did not prepare him as well as the Kings probably expected it too. He would be further along had he played 40 or so games in the NHL last year and also not wasted his time at the WJC's.

That's a fairly narrow interpretation of "development".

From what I've seen from Byfield and what I've heard from others that watched him game in and game out in Sudbury... he has an "increasing returns" learning curve.

He starts slow while learning and processing his environment then when it all begins to click he takes off.

It happened in the OHL, it happened in the AHL... I'm willing to be patient on the bet that it happens in the NHL.

There's more to be learned in the AHL than how to play against non-AHL players and everything we've seen and been told suggests that he's learning all of it.
 

All The Kings Men

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...or Fox is just really good at getting the ball rolling on lowering the Turcotte expectations?

I'm almost entirely kidding. I didn't listen (no offense as I don't listen to any Kings podcasts) but it just seemed preposterous to me that Fox would claim they had Turcotte pegged as a 3C when they drafted him. If that's what you mean by the quote taking on a life of its own, then I agree with you. Makes much more sense if Fox is saying that's where they see him slotting in for the future but, even then, that is a future that seems to not take place until 2025 when Kopitar's contract expires. Really seems like he is going to have to play wing for a couple of seasons unless Lizotte is not retained and he takes his spot.

No offense taken.

I don't remember exactly what Jim said or how he said it but I do know it was more of an after thought or an aside than the actual focus of whatever it was we were talking about and I'm not even sure he would rephrase it the same way if I asked him about it point blank.

Maybe I will.......
 

King'sPawn

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That's a fairly narrow interpretation of "development".

From what I've seen from Byfield and what I've heard from others that watched him game in and game out in Sudbury... he has an "increasing returns" learning curve.

He starts slow while learning and processing his environment then when it all begins to click he takes off.

It happened in the OHL, it happened in the AHL... I'm willing to be patient on the bet that it happens in the NHL.

There's more to be learned in the AHL than how to play against non-AHL players and everything we've seen and been told suggests that he's learning all of it.

I think this is a fair take - it's also part of why he may "look bad" in the WJCs. Short tournaments with little room for a learning curve may affect how quickly he adjusts.

Mind you, he still looked good, and he was dragged down by Quinn, but it was why he didn't look "dominant."
 
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Herby

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What Byfield gained from those 32 games last season was not missing an entire year of hockey. The OHL was shut down. The Kings weren’t trying to prep him to jump right to the NHL, they just wanted him to play, and the fact that he got to play against men was an added bonus of the strange COVID arrangements last year. Hell, he shouldn’t even have been allowed to play in the AHL *this* year, and the Kings would have been forced to make the OHL/NHL decision with him.

At the end of the day, I think Byfield lucked out with the COVID exemptions and benefitted a lot more from this AHL/NHL experience than if he had been in the stuck at the OHL level the whole time.

At this point, it would probably be best for LA to either get him more productive linemates and minutes, or to just send him back to the AHL to develop more. He’s not really being put in a position to succeed the way Kopitar (who played with Frolov and Cammalleri his first game) was when he started out.

Why couldn't the Kings have played him in the NHL like most teams would have?

That's a fairly narrow interpretation of "development".

From what I've seen from Byfield and what I've heard from others that watched him game in and game out in Sudbury... he has an "increasing returns" learning curve.

He starts slow while learning and processing his environment then when it all begins to click he takes off.

It happened in the OHL, it happened in the AHL... I'm willing to be patient on the bet that it happens in the NHL.

There's more to be learned in the AHL than how to play against non-AHL players and everything we've seen and been told suggests that he's learning all of it.

What is wrong with the interpretation? Most other NHL teams find the NHL the best development route for players of that caliber, is it fair to question why the Kings didn't?

If the AHL is such a great option why have so few elite draft picks who were eligible to play in that league play in that league?

...or Fox is just really good at getting the ball rolling on lowering the Turcotte expectations?

I'm almost entirely kidding. I didn't listen (no offense as I don't listen to any Kings podcasts) but it just seemed preposterous to me that Fox would claim they had Turcotte pegged as a 3C when they drafted him. If that's what you mean by the quote taking on a life of its own, then I agree with you. Makes much more sense if Fox is saying that's where they see him slotting in for the future but, even then, that is a future that seems to not take place until 2025 when Kopitar's contract expires. Really seems like he is going to have to play wing for a couple of seasons unless Lizotte is not retained and he takes his spot.

He looked just so far from a future 1st line player in his D+1 it's not really unreasonable to think that the Kings maybe did see him as an elite third line character player when they drafted him. BTW, people ask me what a Top 5 pick in the Big Ten should look like, Google some of Luke Hughes highlights.

Plus, teams have taken what could be called "elite role specific players" high in the draft before, we saw the Kings do it with Colten Teubert and Trevor Lewis before. Yes, granted that was the middle of the 1st round, but there have been plenty of low ceiling picks even in the Top 10 or so (Lias Andersson, Michael Rasmussen, Hayden Fleury, Nick Ritche). It's not unheard of for teams to take more of a sure thing rather than to gamble on higher ceiling less sure things like Seider, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Podzolkin, who all could have been realistic picks for the Kings.
 
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BigKing

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@Herby I don't know...your first "reward" pick for being a horrible team at the start of a rebuild and you decide on an elite 3c? Only if that was their worst-case scenario for his development. I can believe that as a kind of "let's just get on base" type of pick but they drafted him with the belief that he would be a #1 or #2.
 

lumbergh

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Both of these guys — Vilardi and Turcotte — have top six winger potential though. The bottom line is that our top three centers aren't going anywhere for a long time — Kopitar, Danault, and Byfield are set in stone. The pecking order might (or perhaps hopefully) change, but the names will stay the same. The only question that remains is can we slot Kupari, Turcotte, and Vilardi on the wings?

We essentially have three top-nine left wings (Kempe, Iafallo, and Turcotte), three top-nine centers (Kopitar, Danault, and Byfield), and three top-nine right wings (Kaliyev, Vilardi, and Kupari). Where does that leave guys like Arvidsson, Athanasiou, and Moore? What about JAD, Fagemo, and Madden? Sheesh, we've got some questions to answer.

Long term, I'd love to see:

Turcotte - Kopitar - Kaliyev
Kempe - Byfield - Vilardi
Iafallo - Danault - Kupari

I'm not sure what the fourth line might look like, but I could certainly see some combination of JAD, Lizotte, Moore, and Lemieux. I could also see us sending Kupari for an upgrade in net or on the backend, slotting Arvidsson next to Danault.

We're finally reaching a point next season where Vilardi and JAD have to be on the roster or else we'll certainly lose them to waivers. It'll be interesting to see where they slot in.
I hate to say this, but I think the Kupari has maybe played his last game as a King. Probably trade bait in the near future. I'm not really sure where Turcotte will settle in yet. He's gotta show some offense in the AHL for a sustained number of games first to be slotted in the top nine. I'm confident he will, but it may be next season before we see Turcotte again.
 

LAKings88

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No offense taken.

I don't remember exactly what Jim said or how he said it but I do know it was more of an after thought or an aside than the actual focus of whatever it was we were talking about and I'm not even sure he would rephrase it the same way if I asked him about it point blank.

Maybe I will.......
I’d like clarification. I listened to it a few times and it sounds like he asked them (scouts) at the time he was drafted. Maybe it was a more recent revelation or discussion similar to Wheeler’s thoughts on Turcotte. He also mentioned Fagemo likely being a more effective point producer in the next breath.
 

kingsfan28

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I hesitated to bang on Zegras because he's everyone's favorite and I DO Think he'll get there sooner rather than later, if anything I think that part of his game was underrated at other levels. And you can only play the minutes you're given so if anything it's a criticism of coaching/development rather than TZ. That being said, he's an example of deployment making you look better/putting you in a position to succeed rather than pretty much the exact opposite ('3rd line' on the Kings with black holes and liabilities).

When there are multiple spots open on the top two line and very few vets, it much easier to put a player there to succeed like in the Ducks case. There was really one open spot in our top 6, which leaves the bottom 6 and the 3rd line as the high point. That being said once Byfield got hurt, Kupari had every chance to succeed there, and should've. He wasn't playing with bums either. At times it was AA, Andersen, maybe Moore and Grunstrom all good nhl players, and couldn't get it done with any of them. He never shot or used his size or speed, and most nights couldn't get out of his own zone at times. That's on him and not a deployment or coaching issue as far as I could see. After that it was a wheel of players trying to find any chemistry. But yeah I do see your point about being put in a better place to succeed, but after that it's up to the player to do something with that shot.
 

Schmooley

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I’d like clarification. I listened to it a few times and it sounds like he asked them (scouts) at the time he was drafted. Maybe it was a more recent revelation or discussion similar to Wheeler’s thoughts on Turcotte. He also mentioned Fagemo likely being a more effective point producer in the next breath.
I think I remember he also criticized Iafallos production in the top six. Was questioning what player he is and what player he can be and it made me think hes going to be on the third line by next season or possibly offered in a package if a star top line goal scorer becomes available.
I dont listen to podcasts or the interviews or even read the Kings stuff really I just check on here and watch games. But I really liked Fox in that interview. Seemed like he was just speaking his mind and I appreciate that.
 
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