GDT: #53 Canucks at Flyers, Monday Feb 04 7:00PM ET

[Hiesenberg]

19-8-2 is reasonable, nobody foresaw a 7 game win streak and banking a bunch of points.

Before this streak it was 26-8-2.

That's Tampa Bay numbers and there isn't a soul on this earth that thought they could've done that. But with this stretch, they've put themselves in a reachable record.

 

[BiggE]

I hate mathematics. But I think there is solid chance.

But we have to win next 4 home games. Then it will be about 15-8-2, what is really pretty good chance. But yes, we will see.

Solid chance? That's being optimistic, but I truly hope that you're right. I won't bet on it though. I've followed this team and this league for way too long to think otherwise.

 

[BiggE]

19-8-2 is reasonable, nobody foresaw a 7 game win streak and banking a bunch of points

I think 40 points in their final 30 games is about as good as we can expect. That might just be enough, if everything breaks right for them, to get in. However, I still think it will leave them a few points short. FWIW, I truly hope I'm wrong.

 

[BiggE]

Made the mistake of responding to Lord Vader over on Buzz. Shame on me. I should know better.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

It's going to be interesting watching what unfolds with Columbus and Carolina. I could see Buffalo and Philly being the two teams fighting for the 8th seed.

 

[GKJ]

7-game win streak wasn't unattainable. We've seen in recent years that the team for better or worse can get it together in the second half of the season. They did it last year and should've felt they can do it again. The team would have a much better record today if they didn't have the amazing number of meltdowns they had during games while Hakstol was coach. Waiting a month to fire the coach probably cost this team 4 or 5 points, and that would have us right in the playoff mix right now.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Been saying for over a week, this goes to 13 games.

And like GKJ said, if we fired Honk before the western Canada trip, we are prob out of playoffs by 2-3 pts

 

[DaphneLion]

 

[TheKingPin]

Can they make the playoffs? Well yeah, technically it's still a mathematical possibilty. However, barring a miracle, they won't. They are going to trade Wayne Simmonds. If they weren't, he'd already have been extended by now. We can all criticize him (and rightly so) for his play on the ice for most of this season, but I don't think that anyone can question his popularity among his teammates and the respect they hold for him. No matter what the specifics of the deal are, I think they stumble a bit after it is made.

So let's look at the standings from a purely rational perspective. Even if all of these teams stumble and/or struggle quite a bit, based on their roster, health and recent track records, here are the lowest reasonable point totals (and my estimated actual point totals) we can expect from them:
Montreal 92/95
Islanders 96/101
Capitals 96/101
Pittsburgh 95/100
Boston 95/100
Columbus 90/94
Carolina 86/90
Buffalo 85/88

They need to pass at least three of these teams, so at best they need to go something like 19-8-2 to get in. However, more realistically, they'll need to go more like 20-7-3. Also, to actually have a chance to win in the first round (they ain't beating Tampa), they'll probably need to go 23-5-2 or better.

Sadly, I just can't see it happening.

Well the miracle may have already happened. We won 7 in a row and the jackets have lost 5. That’s a 24 pt swing. The jackets are set to lose at least Bob and likely Panarin. That’s like if we lost Hart and G or Couts. Assuming the D keeps getting better this team was always Nolan Patrick away from being good. If he really gets going we have a very hard team to play against. The canes always tank at the end. We have played the bolts well. We have Carter Hart. We could turn Amac into Myers and Hagg into Morin. Getting Hart a playoff series already would be massive.

 

[Rebels57]

I'm sticking with assuming we are going to miss the playoffs. Odds are still too low.

 

[Audible Velvet]

I'm not even going to think about the playoffs. I'm just going to enjoy every success this plucky little team has and be glad the old regime is no more.
Of course my attitude could change within a 24 hour span. For now, future hope lies in a coaching change.

 

[Rebels57]

I'm not even going to think about the playoffs. I'm just going to enjoy every success this plucky little team has and be glad the old regime is no more.
Of course my attitude could change within a 24 hour span. For now, future hope lies in a coaching change.

Yeah I feel the same way.

 

[freakydallas13]

There is a low bar to consider this season a success at this point:

-Trade simmonds before the deadline
-Keep playing the kids, hope they play well
-Call up Myers, NAK when he gets healthy, and Morin when healthy. Give them all playing time
-Offload some other players if you can. Amac, Raffl are prime targets.

If the above happens, they hire a new coach in the offseason, and let more kids earn jobs in training camp, next season will be most optimistic one I've had in yeeeears. Making the playoffs would be playing with house money.

 

[Audible Velvet]

Yeah I feel the same way.

 

[deadhead]

The problem is Hart will hit a dry patch at some point, so unless Stolarz can provide similar play, the Flyers are likely to have a cold spell.

Nor will replacing Amac and Hagg with Morin and Myers move the needle, you'd be injecting two raw rookies into the defense, not exactly ideal for a playoff run. They'll make their share of rookie mistakes.

Outside of Hart, the team is actually playing worse overall than under Hakstol (go check the metrics), though better during the hot streak, but you can say that for practically any winning streak. So at some point they need to play better on a consistent basis, not a period here and there.

 

[DancingPanther]

There is a low bar to consider this season a success at this point:

-Trade simmonds before the deadline
-Keep playing the kids, hope they play well
-Call up Myers, NAK when he gets healthy, and Morin when healthy. Give them all playing time
-Offload some other players if you can. Amac, Raffl are prime targets.

If the above happens, they hire a new coach in the offseason, and let more kids earn jobs in training camp, next season will be most optimistic one I've had in yeeeears. Making the playoffs would be playing with house money.

Speaking of which, anyone know the latest on Morin? I remember hearing February was a target return for him.

It's February, and I'm tired of watching McDonald.

Conditioning assignment soon?

Maybe?

 

[BiggE]

Speaking of which, anyone know the latest on Morin? I remember hearing February was a target return for him.

It's February, and I'm tired of watching McDonald.

Conditioning assignment soon?

Maybe?

Guessing he goes to LHV rehab assignment around 2/11, that way the two weeks take them to the deadline when rosters can be expanded.

 

[DancingPanther]

Guessing he goes to LHV rehab assignment around 2/11, that way the two weeks take them to the deadline when rosters can be expanded.

But BiggE.

Amac is exhausting. I can't wait til March.

 

[BiggE]

But BiggE.

Amac is exhausting. I can't wait til March.

I’m with ya amigo, but sadly it’s not up to me

 

[DancingPanther]

I’m with ya amigo, but sadly it’s not up to me

This displeases me.

 

[Here4ThaLids]

It's looking very possible they run this streak to ten given the opponents, but I can't hope for more than a split with the Pens. Still, the hole they dug under Hakstol is just too deep -- the window was tight to even have a chance and he absolutely had to be out before that abomination of a Western Canada swing.

One additional complicating factor is the Lose for Hughes tank; teams at the bottom of the league are going to be taking fewer points away from the teams the Flyers need to leapfrog and playoff standings are going to look static in the last month of the season. So our boys not only need to keep playing at an unsustainable rate and hope for a wildcard ticket in the low nineties, they also really need to win the head-to-heads against the teams they're chasing.

 

[Jtown]

It's looking very possible they run this streak to ten given the opponents, but I can't hope for more than a split with the Pens. Still, the hole they dug under Hakstol is just too deep -- the window was tight to even have a chance and he absolutely had to be out before that abomination of a Western Canada swing.

One additional complicating factor is the Lose for Hughes tank; teams at the bottom of the league are going to be taking fewer points away from the teams the Flyers need to leapfrog and playoff standings are going to look static in the last month of the season. So our boys not only need to keep playing at an unsustainable rate and hope for a wildcard ticket in the low nineties, they also really need to win the head-to-heads against the teams they're chasing.

all we have to do is win every single game the rest of the way and we will make the playoffs.

 

[Rebels57]

NJ still hasnt activated Hall and they just sent down Blackwood after a 37 save W so they could activate Schneider.

The tank is on for real in NJ. Can't blame them though with their putrid forward depth. Hughes or Kakko would be massive additions. However, if they lose Hall to UFA in 2020, it cancels out.

 

[Angry Hockey Dad]

all we have to do is win every single game the rest of the way and we will make the playoffs.

So you're saying theres a chance?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I'm sticking with assuming we are going to miss the playoffs. Odds are still too low.

one final kick in the jimmies from the Hexy/Hakstool combo...