Post-Game Talk: #51 | Flyers at Jets | January 28, 2023

[Beef Invictus]

Deslauriers was silly, but nothing of importance, $500K or so to bury him as the 13th forward.
For a rebuilding team, that's not a major issue.

TDA was an overpriced gamble, that so far they're losing, it didn't make sense for a rebuilding team but did make sense for a GM who got told they had to show "improvement" to keep his job - so he tries to balance rebuilding with staying competitive.

Not signing JG was the right move, signing a 29 year old forward to a 7 year deal when you're trying to dump JVR and Hayes, and are still stuck with Couts and Atkinson would have signalled they're still in "win now" mode.

They need to do what Guerin has done in Minnesota, move out veterans for assets, patch with short-term deals that don't prevent you from replacing patches with young players when they're ready. So I have no problem trading Provorov, then signing a veteran RHD to a two year deal (or taking on one with an overpriced contract with a couple years left in a trade in return for assets), buying time for Attard, Andrae and to find a young RHD.

Use the cap room to pry away a RFA who has underperformed but fits Torts' schemes (think someone like TIppett).
Scour the waiver wire for young players who have disappointed but don't have serious character flaws for both the NHL and AHL teams.

If you're not going to tank, you should focus on better younger and more talented over a period of years.

"Fletcher has done no wrong" says the guy who insists he doesn't justify everything Fletcher does.

 

[VladDrag]

They are an improving team with many improving young players.

They are much better at the AS Break (team and players) than they were the first month or so of the season, and they are much better now than they were the last two seasons.

They recently swept Washington in a home-and-home, pounded Buffalo, pounded the Jets, and played excellent games against the Kings and Wild, taking both to OT.

They are "competitive" now.

What is your exact definition of competitive? They can play against good teams and not get blown out? Sure, they'll win some games against better clubs, but on average, they'll loose a lot more.

It is a win for enjoyable hockey. It is a win for progress and promise heading into next season.

Instead of starting next season in an even deeper hole from trying to lose, they will be starting on an upward trajectory with many good things and positive development already in place.

And bitch about the prospects all you want, despite no superstars it's still an above average group that very will soon to be adding to one of the very top-scoring 25-and-under teams in the NHL.

Sure, they've gotten better. I even said as much in my previous post. But where is the cap to how good they will be? How much better can this team get? I'm would like to know your thoughts on it. Are you going to be happy if they cap out at a ~95-100 point team that is better than average but doesn't really have a shot getting to the finals? Sure, there are outliers of teams that get to, and even win, the finals that were statistically not as good as other teams; however, this is more exception based on the rule. All I want is to have a true championship chance for a few years (And what's the hostility about, by the way?)

You, and many Flyers fans, are stuck on the belief that the *only* way out is through losing as many games as possible and drafting a Jesus savior. Any other approach is unacceptable and guarantees mediocrity. IMO it's a very overly-simplistic perspective fraught with problems itself and full of historical failures (and successful other approaches) that get ignored.

I am happy to turn on NBCSPhilly and watch good hard-working competitive hockey and a fun young improving team

I never said that it's the only way out. Nor have I said that another approach guarantees mediocrity. However, elite talent it's the most likely way to develop a consistent championship-contending team. The easiest way to get that is to draft early. Sure you might get lucky and draft a 3-7th round stud, but the chances are so low.

So I guess my question is, how do you get elite talent without drafting high? What is your approach? I haven't seen what your response is to that. And without hearing your plan to become an elite team, it just seems like you're okay with mediocrity. I personally want to see them win championships, or at the very least be capable of winning a championship.

 

[pit]

People worry about AI but then I read these posts and realize we’re hundreds of years from it becoming a problem.

We'll get artificial intelligence long before we get actual intelligence.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

What is your exact definition of competitive? They can play against good teams and not get blown out? Sure, they'll win some games against better clubs, but on average, they'll loose a lot more.


Sure, they've gotten better. I even said as much in my previous post. But where is the cap to how good they will be? How much better can this team get? I'm would like to know your thoughts on it. Are you going to be happy if they cap out at a ~95-100 point team that is better than average but doesn't really have a shot getting to the finals? Sure, there are outliers of teams that get to, and even win, the finals that were statistically not as good as other teams; however, this is more exception based on the rule. All I want is to have a true championship chance for a few years (And what's the hostility about, by the way?)



I never said that it's the only way out. Nor have I said that another approach guarantees mediocrity. However, elite talent it's the most likely way to develop a consistent championship-contending team. The easiest way to get that is to draft early. Sure you might get lucky and draft a 3-7th round stud, but the chances are so low.

So I guess my question is, how do you get elite talent without drafting high? What is your approach? I haven't seen what your response is to that. And without hearing your plan to become an elite team, it just seems like you're okay with mediocrity. I personally want to see them win championships, or at the very least be capable of winning a championship.

You keep building and improving so that when you do luck into a great player, he can help take the team to the next level, instead of being stuck on a pathetic losing team surrounded by poor talent, bad habits, and the pressure to singlehandedly save the franchise.

My definition of competitive is that they have a chance to win most nights right now. Almost no opponent is a write off from before the game starts. If the opponent doesn't bring a good effort, the Flyers will beat them. And even when the opponent brings a top effort the Flyers have shown the ability to win.

It's what the Flyers set out to accomplish this season, and it is happening before our eyes. With this kind of effort, structure, and standards in place, it's only going to help as the Flyers' talent level grows and their young players continue their development.

Where we fundamentally disagree is that you want to be as bad as possible *until* the Flyers chance into a superstar. That could be many years, and then even if they get one it brings me back to my first point about him being surrounded by a pathetic losing team and expected to be a teenage savior.

It overlooks the fact that there are many many bad teams in the NHL who you're all competing with to pick early, and that you are still at the whim of lottery balls. So you are digging a deeper hole as a franchise to gain a few more percentage points in a lottery that usually won't even provide a franchise changing player if you get lucky enough to pick first (or second).

The Flyers, while getting better and building a foundation instead of a bigger hole, will still have a chance at the lottery balls this year. Still have a chance to land an excellent player who, with luck, will be a stud.

So you improve while hoping to get lucky in the draft, instead of making getting lucky in the draft the plan your entire franchise hinges upon.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You keep building and improving so that when you do luck into a great player, he can help take the team to the next level, instead of being stuck on a pathetic losing team surrounded by poor talent, bad habits, and the pressure to singlehandedly save the franchise.

My definition of competitive is that they have a chance to win most nights right now. Almost no opponent is a write off from before the game starts. If the opponent doesn't bring a good effort, the Flyers will beat them. And even when the opponent brings a top effort the Flyers have shown the ability to win.

It's what the Flyers set out to accomplish this season, and it is happening before our eyes. With this kind of effort, structure, and standards in place, it's only going to help as the Flyers' talent level grows and their young players continue their development.

Where we fundamentally disagree is that you want to be as bad as possible *until* the Flyers chance into a superstar. That could be many years, and then even if they get one it brings me back to my first point about him being surrounded by a pathetic losing team and expected to be a teenage savior.

It overlooks the fact that there are many many bad teams in the NHL who you're all competing with to pick early, and that you are still at the whim of lottery balls. So you are digging a deeper hole as a franchise to gain a few more percentage points in a lottery that usually won't even provide a franchise changing player if you get lucky enough to pick first (or second).

The Flyers, while getting better and building a foundation instead of a bigger hole, will still have a chance at the lottery balls this year. Still have a chance to land an excellent player who, with luck, will be a stud.

So you improve while hoping to get lucky in the draft, instead of making getting lucky in the draft the plan your entire franchise hinges upon.

So Fletcher shouldn't be fired for another bottom 10 finish?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

So Fletcher shouldn't be fired for another bottom 10 finish?

#sameasiteverwas..

no wonder thus franchise never evolves....hahaaa

 

[Beef Invictus]

Kinda weird how much hype I'm reading for a team that is now playing basic competent hockey after AV eschewed that, and is currently riding a shooting heater that will eventually regress to normal and leave them putting up losses again. AV left a low bar to clear.

All while still carting out Deslauriers and MacEwen every game they can because they follow loser hockey philosophies.

 

[deadhead]

Since Dec 7: 12-9-4 (slightly below "true" .500)

5x5 (SVA): CF 49.06% (23), xGF 49.67% (21), xGF/60: 2.65 (17), HDCF 48.16% (20), Sh% 8.23 (19), Sv% 92.0% (11)
PP: GF/60: 5.81 (24), xGF/60: 5.78 (31)
PK: GA/60: 6.54 (14), xGF/60: 6.94 (6), Sv% 84.34% (28)

They are a slightly below average team now.
This is probably the most you could hope for, given the current talent.

 

[pit]

Now do Nov 1-Dec 7 as the same size game sample when they won 4 games.

Otherwise we're just getting into the gambler's fallacy or hot hand - when good things are happening, we believe they will always continue whereas bad things we believe have to come to an end.

Or we can just get a gif of a crab massacring fruit in here.

 

[renberg]

The key move is going to be the return on Provorov when he is dealt. If the Flyers can pry an under appreciated youngish center off of a club in return, that would be the move to make. .

 

[Curufinwe]

The key move is going to be the return on Provorov when he is dealt. If the Flyers can pry an under appreciated youngish center off of a club in return, that would be the move to make. .

Sure, but I'll also just take some decent picks.

It sucks seeing York shoehorned onto his weak side because Provorov is too big of a diva to even try it. You'd think he'd prefer being on the right.

 

[deadhead]

The key move is going to be the return on Provorov when he is dealt. If the Flyers can pry an under appreciated youngish center off of a club in return, that would be the move to make. .

It's really the trio, JVR at the TDL, Hayes TDL or summer, Provorov summer.
Got to walk away with at least 1st, 3 or 4 other picks and a top prospect.

TK is the only other player with limited contract term who'd bring real value.
Of course, if Fedotov comes over and excels in the AHL, and Ersson is for real, Hart might be trade bait.

 

[renberg]

It's really the trio, JVR at the TDL, Hayes TDL or summer, Provorov summer.
Got to walk away with at least 1st, 3 or 4 other picks and a top prospect.

TK is the only other player with limited contract term who'd bring real value.
Of course, if Fedotov comes over and excels in the AHL, and Ersson is for real, Hart might be trade bait.

I figure that JVR will get a 2nd rounder; probably the latter half of that round. Hayes’ return is hard to determine. His contract isn’t cheap. So unless a PO club gets desperate, he’s addition by subtraction. Provorov needs to bring back either a top 4 defenseman or a potential top two center.
Shedding these three guys opens up cap space that could allow a GM to get creative such as what Holmgren did with the Richards and Carter trades. I can’t see Fletcher pulling this off and coming out well. He’s been bent over too frequently in the past.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Picking outside of top 5, and moving only JVR and braun is just another wasted season, in a long line of them.

Nobody who isn’t a moron ks getting excited about development of Cates.

Few more meh draft assets. Wooo, but at least they are playing Flyer hockey again

 

[Beef Invictus]

They can be so proud of finishing 20th or worse for years to come. Good for them.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

They can be so proud of finishing 20th or worse for years to come. Good for them.

great success...

#sigh

 

[Flyer lurker]

They can be so proud of finishing 20th or worse for years to come. Good for them.

Flyers have improved enough they have a chance when the other team plays their backup g? um goodie.

Worst place to be as a professional team? Meh.