GDT: [#49] CandyCanes @ Stars 7:30 CT (BSSW+, BSSO, ESPN+)

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

sorry misread the stats - doesn't matter which is which - -4, -6 and minus 10 - let's just keep this line together because - who the hell knows but Bowness!

The vaunted Carboneau line had negative plus minus in the SC year. When your task is to defend high end players with little intent to score yourself, getting into plus territory is difficult.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

we are down 3 goals and the useless FCC line is out there on a power play? What the hell is Bowness doing? put the trainer, goalie coach and doctor out there before those three!

Bones said he was going to reduce ice time of the top 2 lines in a back to back.

Makes sense in a lost cause when considering the bigger picture.

 

[Elysian]

I'd say we were due for a stinker but it's been less than a week since our last stinker

At least Nashville lost.

 

[serp]

Bones said he was going to reduce ice time of the top 2 lines in a back to back.

Makes sense in a lost cause when considering the bigger picture.

At least nobody got overplayed in that game. Still think it probably would've been better to rest some players and take it as a "planned" loss since they absolutely need to win on Saturday.

 

[David Castillo]

The vaunted Carboneau line had negative plus minus in the SC year. When your task is to defend high end players with little intent to score yourself, getting into plus territory is difficult.

Yea. 20 years ago. Defending high end players should come from the team, and the team's overall strategy. Not relying on one trio who only gets the matchups it wants when the games are on home ice. This 'specialization' logic is how Dallas ends up overpaying for Lindell. "Well we need someone who can do ALL the PK work!" It's not like they don't have help. They get most of their minutes with Heiskanen and Oleksiak. And I know this isn't fair to your overall point, but it's a little funny to hear someone talking up their opposition on a night when they got dumpstered by a 4th liner named 'Geek.'

 

[Captain Awesome]

Believe it or not, according to moneypuck that line has a >50% xG% (55.8%) and corsi% (50.5%). Caveat being, that the actual goals% is 38.9% (7GF-11GA). That's right, for the price of $8.9M, you too can get a line that [is supposed to] break even!

NHL Lines Advanced Stats

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Not much has really changed in those 20 years. Especially in Bone's very 90s like defensive style of play. Yes, the whole team needs to defend, but when on home ice, it makes sense to put out your best defenders against their best offensive line. And, they do talk about forwards helping out in D, and making a real total team effort, which they do, at least when they are on their game.

Lindell is the 34th highest paid D man in the NHL out of over 300 (including part time call ups). Seems about right to me, given the recency of his contract. He is good at what he is asked to do. Not all D men can be Klingberg or Miro type puck carriers. He is limited but has learned to make the good safe first pass.

And, while they do get scored on, including last night, this board has a habit of turning against our players for one bad play. Dobby can be called great one night, the next night, he is utter trash, according to the comments here. The truth is, no player never gets scored on, and you have to look at overall stats rather than one play to make a real determination as to how good they are.

Just looked at the stat lines provided above. It is interesting, but the Benn-Dickey-Guri line and the Hintz-Robo-Pavs line are both slightly above the FCC line in expected goals against rankings. I guess there is some truth to having an offensive threat and speed requiring other teams to back off a bit.

But again, you guys are tough. $8.9 Mil isn't a bad allocation for the 3 line that is defense, about 11% of the cap. That's not what is hurting the Stars cap wise, although I realize that they shouldn't resign Cogs or Comeau for age, salary, and typical 33+ year old decline. Need to work at least one kid into that line both this year and next. And, then a few years later to replace Faksa.

 

[JeffP]

I like Dobby fine, he’s an above avg backup that had amazing playoff run but when he gets leaky (at least in our sys) he cant seem to stop anything. I think most of us are complaining less about the players and more about the decisions made when we’re having a bad night. A goalie change may not have fixed anything, but theres a chance it could have at just 2 or 3 goals down. :\

Today I don’t read anything about how we lost badly, just that Khudobin made a “Save Of The Year” candidate which is really frustrating. I had hope that we would make a run and sneak into the playoffs and it sucks to watch it falling apart. Obviously, it’s not over yet.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

His save % last night was .833. For the year, it's .907, a bit below both last year (.930) and his career average (.918) So, yeah, he's down a bit, but it's not like he can't save anything, even when he is leaky. Statistically, his save % is down almost 10% from last year, although we can't be sure exactly why.

In his earlier slump, they pulled him out to work on some small thing that crept into his game, and he came back to form. I recall Kari tending to get too low and too far back in the net, and he needed time to work that out. We have seen Otter do the same from time to time (negating the advantage of being a big goalie) When both Otter and Dobs have gotten in trouble this year, it seems the problem is rebound control, which is probably typical of all goalies.

Of course, Otter needs to learn how to play the breakaways and shootouts, which he can learn.

 

[Captain Awesome]

Funny you should mention that both those lines have better xGA rankings. Just reading an article about the NHL awards race on The Athletic. It's all analytics driven stuff (it's a Dom Lcsyscyscys article), but he has a section that peels back some of his restrictions to who should be included in the Selke race. Once he relaxes the amount of PK a player has to play to be included on his list, #1 and #3 on the list are Pavelski and Benn respectively. I don't think either of these guys are the best defensive forward in the NHL, or really all that close, but at the end of the day, these guys are doing more to suppress defense than this vaunted FCC line is, obvious reason being that they actually have the puck and don't murder offense as much.

The $8.9M is inoffensive, but those deals were signed when Faksa was actually producing some offense, and Cogliano still had a rep as a blazing fast defensive guy who could occasionally produce. That is all gone now. These guys get massive minutes to be middling. Maybe Faksa can be saved, but players like Comeau and Cogliano on your team are just filler. They don't have enough unique qualities to help your team particularly in any way, guys like that could always be replaced with someone who could contribute positively. Maybe this is just the insanity of having to watch that line this season, but I don't think there's any place on a team for someone who plays 15 minutes and is an offensive black hole every time they touch the ice.

That means, at best, they can not get scored on. I'm not really sure what that does to advance your ability to win games as a hockey team. Maybe that's too rudimentary a way to look at things, but I'd rather plop Damiani and Mascherin on the ice and see if they can positively affect the game than watch one more minute of Comeau and Cogliano. In the meantime, just go stud for stud against opposing top lines and see what happens.

 

[David Castillo]

Not much has really changed in those 20 years. Especially in Bone's very 90s like defensive style of play. Yes, the whole team needs to defend, but when on home ice, it makes sense to put out your best defenders against their best offensive line. And, they do talk about forwards helping out in D, and making a real total team effort, which they do, at least when they are on their game.

I'd argue quite a bit has changed. For one, goalies are better. In 2019, 30 of these SOB's posted save percentages above .915. Only nine did that in the 2000s. That puts a higher premium on forwards who play two-way hockey: score and defend versus simply defending. The FCC line is good at what they do. I give them props for playing hard minutes, and treading (barely) above water. But they don't get a blue ribbon for failing to do the most important thing of any forward given big minutes must do, which is to produce timely offense.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Not every line is tasked with scoring. You would expect goal scorers on an ideal top line, 20 goal scorers on an ideal second line, and 10-15 goal scorers on an ideal third line. FCC is about that, at least Faksa. Comeau and Cogs not as much.

I would have to compare other third lines, but I bet FCC fares pretty well compared to similar ones. At least in the place or show category, if not the blue ribbon win category. Good enough that they wouldn't be the first thing Nill looks to replace and upgrade.

And, I'm not sure the goalies are any better, they just have bigger pads, LOL>