Well, what do you think Hainsey was worth last April? A late 2nd round pick in a draft where we had 3 2nd round picks? That's probably a pipedream when you look at the deals that were actually made, but say it's true. You want to move a guy who was basically playing top-pairing minutes at a time when your team is sitting in a playoff spot? For a late 2nd?
News Article: 30 thoughts: Maurice extension possible + systems + Buff
- Thread starter allan5oh
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Well, what do you think Hainsey was worth last April? A late 2nd round pick in a draft where we had 3 2nd round picks? That's probably a pipedream when you look at the deals that were actually made, but say it's true. You want to move a guy who was basically playing top-pairing minutes at a time when your team is sitting in a playoff spot? For a late 2nd?
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I don't... I guess I could look it up though...
I do have this: http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/01/20/2013-2014-goaltending-performance-save-percentage-correlation/
(see graphs)
and this though: http://www.extraskater.com/team/winnipeg-jets/2013#performance-charts
(see PDO graph)
JetsFan815
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2012
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They traded Oduya at the deadline in season one. Turns out he's a 2nd pairing defenseman on a Stanley Cup contender! Got us a 2nd and 3rd (61st and 91st overall) in the draft 14 months after he was dealt. Really pulled one on Chicago there!
Last year they stood pat because the Jets only had crap that no one wanted...and the team was actually sitting in a playoff spot on the deadline (3rd seed in the East - top of the SE Div).
If you think Seto's worth more than a 4th or 5th rounder at this point, you're dreaming - and dreaming big if you think that 5th round, 140th overall pick is going to make any kind of difference. Jokinen or Stu aren't worth much more.
But basically what I'm hearing here is trading 3 roster players for magic beans is the right move to make no matter where we are in the standings at the deadline...?
Trading Seto, Jokinen and Stu will imo fetch us atleast a 2nd, two 3rds, and a 4th. Possibly even more, esp if there's teams like Canucks who would probably pay a decent price for Jokinen or Seto for some offensive help. You say its trading 3 players for "magic beans", I say it's making sure we turn these players into something when they are either replacable or don't have a future with the team beyond this season
Doug Murray went for two 2nds at last years deadline. If a guy like that can go for two seconds you can be sure there was a market for Hainsey. It's not just about the draft picks, at the draft it was reported that we were interesting in both Frolik and Bolland. If we had that extra 2nd rounder then perhaps we have the assets to acquire Bolland too.
Again my point is more about the future than the past. I don't hold not selling at last year's deadline against Chevy when there was a decent chance of us making a run at the playoffs in a weak southeast. My point is that it doesn't make sense to repeat the mistakes of the past again this season when our competition is much tougher and we are further back in the standings.
Yeah, Chevy can't be faulted for going for it last year, knowing it was going to be tough going in the West. If he had a chance to make the playoffs he was right to stand pat and hope for the best.
Sometimes when you roll the dice they come up snake eyes, and that's not anybody's fault.
If we'd made it, what good would an extra 2nd have done us in the playoffs last year?
Sometimes when you roll the dice they come up snake eyes, and that's not anybody's fault.
If we'd made it, what good would an extra 2nd have done us in the playoffs last year?
.923 i believe was the number referenced on TSN at the start of the carolina game. It is definitly north of .920
Blue Shakehead
because lol Jets
Definitely a market for Hainsey is pure fantasy. When was the last time a player sat on multiple offers for months and then signed a deal a one year contract for $2M? My guess is never.
We don't know what the market is for any of our UFAs. And just because San Jose ripped Pittsburgh off for Douglas Murray does not mean that we get to rip people off for our players. Each player has their own percieved value (including no value) which will be different to every team. In a year where everyone is up against the cap, I find it hard to believe that we are going to unload a $3M Setogouchi or a $4.5M Jokinen for much, if anything.
Anytime a player signs a 1 year contract that's a pretty good sign that the market for that player was soft.
Holden Caulfield
Eternal Skeptic
I calculated out Pav's save percentage for my AIH preview yesterday.
Since the coaching change Pavs has a .918sv%, 2.22gaa with a 7-2 record in 9 starts since Paul Maurice took over as coach.
of course not, but painting the image that shipping some combination o fsetoguchi stuart and jokinen out (all of which besides jokinen i'd say there is a more then adequate replacement for within the system given their performance this year) is somehow going to shatter the confidence of our team and "send a bad message" is ridiculous. It's the nature of the game. Every team does this.
keep in mind we managed to turn similar "magic beans" into our current second line right wing.
we're not talking about shipping out andrew lad, blake wheeler or dustin byfuglien fro just picks. Were talking about moving several players who are only playing marginally above "replacement level" but have various other influences (pedigree, intangibles, etc) that make them more valuable as cheap depth to a contender then they would be for us.
also whose to say the return on one of these guys isn't another borderline prospect stuck behind depth (something like loktionov in LA, etc etc).
the point is letting these guys expire is the wrong move. Especially when we're winning on things that are HEAVILY influenced by luck.
if we were out chancing our opponents handidly everygame and "looked" like a 9-2 team i'd agree with not moving t hese players, but we don't.
You trade these guys at the deadline despite a 10-2 or 13-2 run for the same reason why there were no trades when we were 2- 8 in November. Slumps/Streaks happen.
my bad, could of sworn it was .923 on that broadcast but must have been in the .914 range prior to that game.
sipowicz
The thrill is gone
- Mar 16, 2011
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But if the tradeoff is a few middling picks for a better chance at the playoffs, there's a cost that's greater than letting Seto, Jokinen and Stu go for nothing. Also, Jokinen cost the Jets nothing (UFA) so if he isn't re-signed, it's net zero. Stu is indicating he wants to re-sign here so probably won't lose him for nothing. Seto cost us a 2nd. Sell him for whatever you can and move O'Dell into his spot - I don't know if anyone would disagree with that. Although Seto's value is probably around Jussi Jokinen's was at last year's deadline (unclaimed off waivers, traded for a conditional 7th and Carolina had to retain a bunch of salary - and he's actually more useful than Seto!).
I think Murray was something specific the Pens were looking for - a big, shutdown guy to address a team weakness. It was a lucky trade for the Sharks but it doesn't set the new bar for other deals.
I agree that it's improbable that the Jets make the playoffs, but things are rolling along well, they're pushing hard, believing in themselves - I'd be more inclined to let the cards fall where they may and not pulling out the rug if they're in the hunt at the deadline. Trading away a Top-4 D (well, a guy playing in the top 4) or a 2/3 Center if they've got a decent shot is not the way I'd want to reward this recent turnaround.
And it was .912 heading into the Carolina game (under Maurice).
It was a little embarrassing hearing Johnson and Beyak celebrate Pavelec being a .912 goalie under Maurice. WHOOO...average!
Hank Chinaski
Registered User
It was 0.912 (Ha! BigZ beat me to it)
It stood out because I saw the save percentage (which is ok, but still below league average) and then his GAA around 2.3 something. Made me think that they've done a better job of limiting shots when Pavelec plays.
Hey, I just said that on the last page! Just because I sometimes disagree with Garret doesn't mean I can't do math, you guys...
if our team had clear cut 1st and 2nd lines I agree,but with a couple of improvements to the 3rd line we could have 3 pretty even lines who on any given night could be our best line.plus injuries are always going to happen fwd and D and Buff can fill most voids.That being said if we could get the right return in a trade that fills some team needs you would have to consider it.
CaptainChef
Registered User
To me it boils down to what's more valuable to this team on deadline day if the team is close to, or sitting in a playoff spot? We lose tonight and in St. Louis then the Phoenix game after the Oly break, we're done...go nuts - sell sell sell. But if we win 2 out of 3 and are right there, you still want to move Jokinen or Stu for picks that won't have an impact here for at least 2 or 3 years - if ever? This is what you'd do to a team that would be, hypothetically, 11-3 since Jan 12? Come on!
truck
Registered User
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
allan5oh
Has prospect fever
- Oct 15, 2011
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CaptainChef
Registered User
Your way of thinking that just making the playoffs and having a remote chance of getting through a couple rounds is exactly why the cupboards were bare when this club came from Atlanta - they invested a bunch of draft picks into some rentals that didn't get them where they wanted to go that year.
Unless you have a reasonable chance of going all the way in the playoffs or signing those rentals because they are really going to help you in the future, you take advantage of any opportunity to accumulate draft picks - yes and you wait for 2 or 3 years for those picks to turn into something. Indeed many won't ever amount to anything, but that's one of the surest ways of developing a team (unless you're happy with just making the playoffs and bowing out in the first or second round year after year).
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Both, but against is much more substantial change...
Likely the for numbers improving is due to the improved defense.
At this point the numbers are more indicative than predictive, but it's something to note.
Yeah, I remember this discussion from last year, and my feelings are that just making the playoffs this year would be invaluable for this franchise that's only qualified once in its history. Bogosian, Kane, Little, Scheifele, Trouba, Enstrom, O'Dell, Postma - none of these guys have ever made the NHL postseason. It's a different level of hockey and they need to experience it to learn what they need to do to succeed there and to get back there. Success breeds success and failure breeds failure. So that's the value-of-making-the-playoffs argument.
My other point is - how mad are the players going to be if you blow it up at the deadline for "the future". It's a stab in the back and they're not going to be understanding that "well it's for the longterm good of the team that we just sabotaged your playoff hopes so we can draft the next Carl Klingberg this June. Yeah, you were 2 points out of the 8th spot on March 3, but, come on - who are we kidding - you guys aren't contenders!" How do so many here fail to see this? "Nice season, Bryan Little - but it was all for nothing, as is every season for you I guess. But don't worry - I'm going to turn that 2nd rounder we got for Stu into the next Jeremy Morin!"
Edit: Oh, and the reason Atlanta's cupboard was bare was because the one time they made the playoffs, they massively overpaid for veterans at the deadline (Tkachuk and Zhitnik). Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting the Jets try that...
