News Article: 30 thoughts: Maurice extension possible + systems + Buff

[theamazingchris]

Folks will point to shot quality, etc etc etc with buff, but the problem i have with that is case-and-point bogo and trouba over these last few games.

They've given upa tonne of "buff esq" mistakes/turnovers/breakaways, but we've had good enough goal-tending to compensate. It isn't that there turnovers in the slot are worse, or that they hustle more when they get caught at center ice, it's that our goaltender makes the save.

It's easier for a goaltender to stop every dzone turn-over-turned-opportunity over a 9 game stretch then it is over the past 150+ games buff has played as a jet.

If those continue to happen at the rate they are they'll eventually look no different then buff.


short story: Right result doesn't justify a wrong decision.

This is my view of the situation. Buff wasn't the only guy turning the puck over when he was on D, because there are plenty of them now. Like Maurice said, there's entirely too much focus on him in general.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Most numbers people would tell you Halak is a very very very good goaltender.

Elliot is just OK.

Both are better than Pavelec.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...omp=gt&c4val=&order_by=games_played#stats::15

And yet they are very much involved in moving for Miller

 

[theamazingchris]

Actually, the bolded statement is out of date and incorrect, I believe. The challenge was always the poor quality of the NHL's tracking of shot locations, making any assessment of "shot quality" virtually impossible. In such a data void, it would have been impossible to distinguish the different value of individual shots. Therefore we are stuck using Corsi, which is worlds better than +/-, but far from perfect. I would encourage you to look up the "Shot Quality Project" on Sportsnet. While the data behind it is not publicly available, it appears that they have been tracking the precise location of thousands of shots to determine which have the highest shooting %. This allows them to make data-supported claims about the "quality" of any given shot based on its location and other characteristics (deflection, rebound, etc.).

You will be shocked to learn that shots from the slot are far more successful than those from the blueline. I have no idea if the Jets have actually improved the quality of their shots against, but to suggest that shot quality is irrelevant, based on a number of studies using contaminated data, is wrong.

To be fair, I think most people dismiss shot quality as an argument is because teams generally can't suppress quality chances more than regular shots. There are certainly better places to score than others, but the proportion of chances to regular shots is actually fairly consistent. So, a good team will allow an average of 25 shots, say, and 5 of those are scoring chances, while a worse team will allow 35 shots and 7 scoring chances. The better team is cutting down on volume, not quality. This is what the data seems to support.

 

[truck]

And yet they are very much involved in moving for Miller

Miller is very good too.

Both of their goalies are pending UFA.

GMs do weird things with goalies every year.

Not really sure of your point.

Past save percentage is a better predictor of future save percentage than GM allocated contracts. That will continue to be true regardless of any moves that are made this off-season.

 

[CaptainChef]

The argument that can be made both ways. Guys that are hurting us like Pardy are playing because Buff is up front. I think Buff on D v Pardy is bigger difference than Buff on forward v O'Dell.

I buy that argument. But, I just can't envision Buff as a 3rd pairing D. If he gets moved back to D, Troub's automatically gets bumped down and I think Bogo does as well. Let this experiment go on until or if we hit a losing streak where our D is obviously the cause.

I know guys are not crazy about Buff the "wild card" but I think that's the ideal scenario. He already is being used as a wild card D on PP, 4 on 4 late or OT, and even during the play sometimes where the defense creeps in & he assumes the D position. I love those moves.

I can see more of that happening though; maybe experiment with moving him to D if we're behind by a couple goals in the 3rd and we need an offensive boost -- where we give up a little D to get better offensive production out of our D. There are other wild card options that we can use Buff with as well -- if we fully explore those, I can envision needing Buff enough that we really couldn't afford to trade him!

 

[winterpeg]

You will be shocked to learn that shots from the slot are far more successful than those from the blueline. I have no idea if the Jets have actually improved the quality of their shots against, but to suggest that shot quality is irrelevant, based on a number of studies using contaminated data, is wrong.

I don't think the statement is that shot quality doesn't matter, I think it is that shot quality generally evens out in the long run, and over a season, the percentage of higher percentage slots (how many shots are from the slot vs the blue line) evens out from team to team, and so statistically it doesn't have an effect in the long term.

If shooting percentages, team wide, are incredibly similar on long-term average, then that means that the quality of the AVERAGE shot a team takes is the same.

Shots from the slot are obviously higher scoring, but I would wager that teams who get more shots from the slot also just get more shots. They still take 20% of their shots from the slot and 80 somewhere else, it's just they shoot more from EVERYWHERE, ergo, more high percentage shots.

That would be my guess.

There is NO question that on a play by play basis, shot quality matters. I am just suggesting that analytically it averages out in the end, so while it may prove to be of some analytical value (perhaps extreme value) I don't think it means the stats are incredibly flawed without it.

I am, however, interested to see what comes of that shot tracking.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Miller is very good too.

Both of their goalies are pending UFA.

GMs do weird things with goalies every year.

Not really sure of your point.

Past save percentage is a better predictor of future save percentage than GM allocated contracts. That will continue to be true regardless of any moves that are made this off-season.

That perception and reality are two different things. They have seemingly 2 quality goalies with good stats yet they are not happy with them.

I happen to think that when we finish the season with Maurice and with the way the Jets are currently playing both our goalies stats will look remarkably different then under what they looked like under Noel.

The question will be whether the management here views the goaltending as a liability moving forward with Maurice.

That is why I think we end up looking like the blues keeping these goalies next year and not really looking to get a top end goalie until they think we have a shot at the cup.

 

[Gm0ney]

We have found common ground Grind.

I love winning but I share your fear that it might impede us from moving assets at the deadline. This is offset somewhat by the fact it appears it may be a buyer’s market this spring if TSN's top 10 rental player list is any indication and maybe selling was always going to be an issue. At a minimum I would like to see Seto moved.

Like you I am much more concerned that we get gun shy in the off season with our older core. I would like to see at least one guy moved from that group to address our current organizational weaknesses. I heard Chevy and Zinger were working hard to make some big moves before they fired Coach Noel but the market was to tough with the Cap challenges. I think they might want to continue on with that plan in the off season and be thankful that the coaching change was the right thing to do but so was their original idea of building around the younger core.

If this team is 2 points out of a spot at the deadline, coming back from where they were in early January, and Chevy moves any combination of Seto, Stu and Joker for picks/prospects, the guys that went to war to claw their way back into the playoff race will be be very disappointed. What message does that send? "Come on, you guys...next year for sure!"

 

[truck]

If this team is 2 points out of a spot at the deadline, coming back from where they were in early January, and Chevy moves any combination of Seto, Stu and Joker for picks/prospects, the guys that went to war to claw their way back into the playoff race will be be very disappointed. What message does that send? "Come on, you guys...next year for sure!"

The message should be "this is what is best for the team." Step it up and keep rolling. Seto and Gooch have done very little during this run. They aren't scoring much and they are getting outplayed more often than not.

 

[Prot]

I would wait until after the olympic break before signing Maurice.

I want to see how the team plays after they come back for a while. As a side note it does seem everyone 'underperforms' here after they get a contract.... Would it hurt to wait?

 

[CaptainChef]

Giving up fewer shots (and chances) is always a good idea. I am not sure the Jets found a magical formula there though.

Over the last 11 games the Jets have a better save percentage than any team in the entire league has sustained this season. If that doesn't speak to an unsustainable hot streak, I don't know what does.

In other words, under PoMo the Jets are getting "better goaltending" than any team in the NHL has this season.

Over time, this year or next Ondrej's numbers will in all likelihood flop back into the .906 range under PoMo, just like they have after every other hot streak.

As I said before, I think the defensive zone coverage is night and day different now then it was with Noel. That's been the big difference & yes that's sustainable for the most part.

Has our goal-tending been a lot better - I doubt it. I haven't checked to see what their save % have been in these last 11 games (too lazy to do it manually & don't know where to find it quickly). Certainly, Monty has been great his two starts since. But has Pavs really exceeded his average by much? I know he was like .866 over that three game stretch, so he would have to have been .930 or better in the other 6 games since Pmo took over to make up for those 3 bad games - not likely, but maybe someone has those numbers handy?

 

[Gm0ney]

The message should be "this is what is best for the team." Step it up and keep rolling. Seto and Gooch have done very little during this run. They aren't scoring much and they are getting outplayed more often than not.

Well if we can trade both Seto AND Gooch...

But Stu's playing a pretty big role on D - and has played well during this run. Jokinen has also been a significant contributor over the course of the season - 6th in scoring right now. You send out either of those guys and I think some guys will be legitimately upset. "We got a late-2nd and a 3rd for Jokinen, so help is on the way - in 2017! Thanks for busting out that 9-2, though..."

 

[Grind]

As I said before, I think the defensive zone coverage is night and day different now then it was with Noel. That's been the big difference & yes that's sustainable for the most part.

Has our goal-tending been a lot better - I doubt it. I haven't checked to see what their save % have been in these last 11 games (too lazy to do it manually & don't know where to find it quickly). Certainly, Monty has been great his two starts since. But has Pavs really exceeded his average by much? I know he was like .866 over that three game stretch, so he would have to have been .930 or better in the other 6 games since Pmo took over to make up for those 3 bad games - not likely, but maybe someone has those numbers handy?

you must have missed garrets post. The jets have gottten better goaltending over the past 10 games then the best teams goaltending has given them over their season.

Pavelecs sv% is sky high compared to his usual numbers, even including his 3 weak games.

we have improved uner pomo, no doubt, but that improvement is being vastly inflated by a while timed but completely "regular" pavelec hot-streak.

 

[ps241]

If this team is 2 points out of a spot at the deadline, coming back from where they were in early January, and Chevy moves any combination of Seto, Stu and Joker for picks/prospects, the guys that went to war to claw their way back into the playoff race will be be very disappointed. What message does that send? "Come on, you guys...next year for sure!"

I would hope it sends the message managment believes this team is good enough without Seto and we have to keep moving forward. Up steps O'Dell and we are off to the races. Dumping all three would be a tougher pill to swallow but I can't see that happening. Last year assuming there was a market for Hainsey we retained him and got caught holding the bag. I backed that move last season but since we gave up a 2nd for Seto I would like to see us get something back for him and we are a deeper team than last year....we would be just fine.

 

[garret9]

The shot quality project has not discovered anything new.

G Desjardins, J Likens, and V Ferrarai all showed/proved previously that not all shots are equal analytically.

The point being is there is no evidence that it is a controlable factor. Thus far. Even Chris (the author of the SQP) knows this. Go ask him for yourself. He's on twitter and very open to questions.

 

[CaptainChef]

Well if we can trade both Seto AND Gooch...

But Stu's playing a pretty big role on D - and has played well during this run. Jokinen has also been a significant contributor over the course of the season - 6th in scoring right now. You send out either of those guys and I think some guys will be legitimately upset. "We got a late-2nd and a 3rd for Jokinen, so help is on the way - in 2017! Thanks for busting out that 9-2, though..."

That's the sort of thinking that will keep us average. How many assets did we loose outright during the last two years alone because we were on the playoff bubble? Did it help us?

 

[CaptainChef]

you must have missed garrets post. The jets have gottten better goaltending over the past 10 games then the best teams goaltending has given them over their season.

Pavelecs sv% is sky high compared to his usual numbers, even including his 3 weak games.

we have improved uner pomo, no doubt, but that improvement is being vastly inflated by a while timed but completely "regular" pavelec hot-streak.

If Garret presented actual save % over this stretch - yes I missed it. If he didn't, I remain unconvinced that his save % is "sky-high" but I guess even .920 over 9 games would be sky-high for Pavs

 

[JetsFan815]

Hmm...
The jets have been winning with Buff on forward. I don't quite see this disaster you speak of. You want the jets to lose, so we can stop this disastrous "winning" thing we're doing?

My contention is that this recent win streak is down more to puck luck than people are willing to admit. We've won games which we had no business winning and the turnovers that would end up in the back of the net in the earlier part of the season are staying out. The hockey gods are smiling on the Jets for now but hockey gods giveth... hockey gods taketh. It's only a matter of time before Jets' puck luck runs out. I just hope we haven't tanked Buff's dynamite trade value by then. I think damage has already been done to his trade value but it's reversible if he is moved back to D quickly. Clearly it seems to me Jets want to trade Buff as there is no way he resigns with us if he's being forced to play RW. But letting their key players go for nothing or for scraps is how franchises end up in a rut of mediocrity.

I know we disagree on Buff, but we use different measures to evaluate him. I don't dismiss such things as 5-5 GF%, since the league does outlandish things like deciding games on which teams scores more goals and determine team standings on which teams accumulate more points

IMO Buff is a bit of an outlier using some advance stats that can't account for shot quality. For example how many perimeter shots is equal to an odd man rush or an uncovered player at the side of the net? And I believe with certain players such as Buff, these things don't even out in the long run. He just plays defense too unconventionally.

Again looking at 5-5 GF% Buff is easily at the bottom of the Jets playing 500 mins. But since he has moved to forward he has actually moved above .500 over that strech. I know a lot of people don't like more basic stats, but team 5-5 GF% matches up remarkable close to team success. And first and foremost that is what I care about the most.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...500&teamid=2&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

If that's the case then why did Buff have above team average on ice sv % last season and team average sv% the season before? Surely if Buff is such an outlier there would have been a pattern there... he didn't suddenly become such a bad player that he is now the outlier to a well regarded piece of hockey conventional wisdom...

 

[Gm0ney]

you must have missed garrets post. The jets have gottten better goaltending over the past 10 games then the best teams goaltending has given them over their season.

Pavelecs sv% is sky high compared to his usual numbers, even including his 3 weak games.

we have improved uner pomo, no doubt, but that improvement is being vastly inflated by a while timed but completely "regular" pavelec hot-streak.

Has Boston's goaltending been the exact same every game or do they have stretches where they get even better goaltending? Jets goaltending has been a hair higher than Boston's season SV% average. I'm just trying to figure out if this is the ceiling in terms of SV% in the history of mankind.

Pavelec has a .918 SV% in his 9 starts under Maurice. His previous 9 games he was .845. His career average is .906. Will he keep playing .918 the rest of the way? He's .881 over his last 18 games, and .902 on the season, so shouldn't we expect some upward regression to his career average? He'd have to post a .916 SV% the rest of the way (assuming he faces another 550 shots) to make it back up to .906.

Anyway, the bottom line is that nothing supernatural needs to happen in terms of Pavelec or SV% for this to continue.

 

[JetsFan815]

If this team is 2 points out of a spot at the deadline, coming back from where they were in early January, and Chevy moves any combination of Seto, Stu and Joker for picks/prospects, the guys that went to war to claw their way back into the playoff race will be be very disappointed. What message does that send? "Come on, you guys...next year for sure!"

I would tell them.. too bad. Chevy let them make a run at the last two deadlines and yet they weren't able to do anything. This song and dance is getting old. Better to get assets for the above mentioned players than try to go another run which is most likely gonna fail

 

[winterpeg]

If Garret presented actual save % over this stretch - yes I missed it. If he didn't, I remain unconvinced that his save % is "sky-high" but I guess even .920 over 9 games would be sky-high for Pavs

Holding on to a SV% like that, Monty's great games drag the team sv% up farther, and aggregately, it's pretty spectacular.

 

[Gm0ney]

That's the sort of thinking that will keep us average. How many assets did we loose outright during the last two years alone because we were on the playoff bubble? Did it help us?

Antro couldn't be traded because he got injured at the deadline. How much market was there for Wellwood or Hainsey, considering that Wellwood played 5 games in the Swiss beer league before retiring this season, and Hainsey didn't get a contract until the kids were back in school? 0 out of 30 teams offered any of those guys a deal July 1, so I guess those are the kind of "assets" the Jets just let slip through their fingers.

 

[Flair Hay]

The shot quality project has not discovered anything new.

G Desjardins, J Likens, and V Ferrarai all showed/proved previously that not all shots are equal analytically.

The point being is there is no evidence that it is a controlable factor. Thus far. Even Chris (the author of the SQP) knows this. Go ask him for yourself. He's on twitter and very open to questions.

Why is the burden on more "conventional wisdom" to prove that it is a controllable factor?

I'm not so sure it should be accepted yet that systems play is irrelevant to quality of chances a team gives up. Unless I am misunderstanding something.

 

[JetsFan815]

Antro couldn't be traded because he got injured at the deadline. How much market was there for Wellwood or Hainsey, considering that Wellwood played 5 games in the Swiss beer league before retiring this season, and Hainsey didn't get a contract until the kids were back in school? 0 out of 30 teams offered any of those guys a deal July 1, so I guess those are the kind of "assets" the Jets just let slip through their fingers.

What a player gets in Free Agency has nothing to with demand for them at the trade deadline. If FA and TD were related you wouldn't see teams like Pittsburgh pay big value for guys like Iginla and Morrow and then let them walk in FA. There was definitely a market for Hainsey at the deadline. The fact that he waited till late August to sign doesn't mean anything. For all we know he could have had multiple offers in front of him but really wanted to go to Carolina and was waiting for them

 

[Gm0ney]

I would tell them.. too bad. Chevy let them make a run at the last two deadlines and yet they weren't able to do anything. This song and dance is getting old. Better to get assets for the above mentioned players than try to go another run which is most likely gonna fail

They traded Oduya at the deadline in season one. Turns out he's a 2nd pairing defenseman on a Stanley Cup contender! Got us a 2nd and 3rd (61st and 91st overall) in the draft 14 months after he was dealt. Really pulled one on Chicago there!

Last year they stood pat because the Jets only had crap that no one wanted...and the team was actually sitting in a playoff spot on the deadline (3rd seed in the East - top of the SE Div).

If you think Seto's worth more than a 4th or 5th rounder at this point, you're dreaming - and dreaming big if you think that 5th round, 140th overall pick is going to make any kind of difference. Jokinen or Stu aren't worth much more.

But basically what I'm hearing here is trading 3 roster players for magic beans is the right move to make no matter where we are in the standings at the deadline...?