3 year turnover

[TheOtherOne]

As a fan of the worst team in the league by far I have to give myself reason for hope any way I can. So I have to hope we can compete in 3 years (3 is an arbitrary number, this exercise could of course be done differently). Therefore I wanted to look at where Stanley Cup winners and runner-ups were 3 years prior to their success. I hope you find my results interesting.

3 years before competing in the Cup finals, the...
- Blues and Bruins were #3 and #16
- Capitals and Golden Knights were #9 and nonexistent
- Penguins and Predators were #6 and #19
- Penguins and Sharks were #2 and #11
- Blackhawks and Lightning were #10 and #21
- Kings and Rangers were #12 and #18
- Blackhawks and Bruins were #3 and #14
- Kings and Devils were #26 and #5
- Bruins and Canucks were #15 and #21
- Blackhawks and Flyers were #26 and #30
- Penguins and Red Wings were #29 and #1

The number shown is the league regular season standings. This should give you an idea of how far a team has historically been able to rise within 3 years. The average is #14. This means a bubble team is likely to compete for the Cup in 3 years, but there is also a lot of variance so don't read too much into that.

The winner is listed first. One may also find it interesting that the team that was ranked higher 3 years prior almost always won in the Finals (Kings and Penguins are the 2 exceptions out of 11 cases).

A top-third / middle-third / bottom-third team has a
62/29/10 % chance of playing in the Finals next year,
67/29/5 % chance of playing in the Finals in two years,
38/33/29 % chance of playing in the Finals in three years.

About the chart:
For years -3, -2, -1, the number on the vertical axis indicates the standings position, 1-30 (ignore the negative sign).
For year 0, the number on the vertical axis is 1 for the Stanley Cup winner and 0 for the Stanley Cup runner-up.

Click to read more...

 

[LarKing]

Turnaround in this league is very fast with good management. It’s why a team like Edmonton can stay perennial bottom feeders and a team like Tampa can become a powerhouse quickly.

 

[kladorf2005]

I feel like all you've proven is that where you stood 3 years prior offers no predictive power to making the SCF. Not all that surprising though given the league parity and the nature of the sport (i.e. "puck luck")

8 finished in the top third
7 finished in the middle third
6 finished in the bottom third
1 was an expansion team

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

If the rebuild takes 5 years or under, I don't think that's too long.
As long as you have good ownership/management, that's huge.

 

[Mickey Marner]

The average NHL team has a ~50% roster turnover every 3-4 years.

Almost all those teams hit on a lottery pick as well.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I feel like all you've proven is that where you stood 3 years prior offers no predictive power to making the SCF. Not all that surprising though given the league parity and the nature of the sport (i.e. "puck luck")

8 finished in the top third
7 finished in the middle third
6 finished in the bottom third
1 was an expansion team

I basically agree. You can debate the significance but I think it's interesting. Mainly because I see a lot of "there's no way in hell we could ever compete for a Cup in 3 years." On the contrary, this thread basically shows that anything can happen in 3 years and how bad the team is currently has little or no relevance there.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Another curiosity is that in the 4 seasons 09-13, 5 out of 8 teams went from bottom third to Cup finalists in 3 years. And 3 out of 4 went from bottom third to winning. In the following 7 years, only 1 of the finalists was a bottom third team.

I'm guessing this is just coincidence.

 

[kladorf2005]

Another curiosity is that in the 4 seasons 09-13, 5 out of 8 teams went from bottom third to Cup finalists in 3 years. And 3 out of 4 went from bottom third to winning. In the following 7 years, only 1 of the finalists was a bottom third team.

I'm guessing this is just coincidence.

I'd chalk it up to variance and small sample size

I agree with your other post though. Detroit is no more/less likely than a current powerhouse (i.e. Boston) to make the SCF in 2023.

 

[666]

As a fan of the worst team in the league by far I have to give myself reason for hope any way I can.

The problem with Detroit is that until this year they hadn't hit rock bottom yet. On the way down they've had 3 top 10 picks. A couple of top 3 picks at the bottom and then some more top 10 picks on the way up and in 5 years of so you should be ok.

For example the only remaining Leaf from the 14-15 team is Reilly, everyone else is gone.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I don't know why I did this. I was curious. Enjoy.

 

[Egghead1999]

The average NHL team has a ~50% roster turnover every 3-4 years.

Almost all those teams hit on a lottery pick as well.

may be new coach

 

[TheOtherOne]

Some numbers from the added graph:

A top-third / middle-third / bottom-third team has a
62/29/10 % chance of playing in the Finals next year,
67/29/5 % chance of playing in the Finals in two years,
38/33/29 % chance of playing in the Finals in three years.

I think that's a pretty significant indicator that the worst 10ish teams should probably set their sights on 3 years out, while the standings don't matter much for the rest of the league's future chances.

edit: forgot the conversion to %. Numbers don't add to 100 due to rounding.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Maybe I am under rating some of their prospects, but I feel like Detroit is a lot further out than 3 years. Larkin is a good piece but IMO a 1B center. To truely compete in the east especially they'll need at least 1 true #1 C that Larkin can play behind and at least 1 elite winger, and then depth at every position.

Tampa - Stamkos / Point / Kucherov

Bruins - Bergeron / Marchand / Pasta / Krejci

Leafs (trying to contend) Matthews / JT / Marner

Other division in the east

Pens - Crosby / Malkin / Kessel / Guentzell

Caps - Backstrom / Kuznetsov / Ovi

Could keep going but you get the point. I think they need at least 2 top 5 picks here as Larkin can be one of these pieces, and that ignores goaltending and the defense. Which is why I think it will take longer than 3 years to develop the right organizational depth to feed a contender and the time to mature the players to where they can play significant roles.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Maybe I am under rating some of their prospects, but I feel like Detroit is a lot further out than 3 years. Larkin is a good piece but IMO a 1B center. To truely compete in the east especially they'll need at least 1 true #1 C that Larkin can play behind and at least 1 elite winger, and then depth at every position.

Tampa - Stamkos / Point / Kucherov

Bruins - Bergeron / Marchand / Pasta / Krejci

Leafs (trying to contend) Matthews / JT / Marner

Other division in the east

Pens - Crosby / Malkin / Kessel / Guentzell

Caps - Backstrom / Kuznetsov / Ovi

Could keep going but you get the point. I think they need at least 2 top 5 picks here as Larkin can be one of these pieces, and that ignores goaltending and the defense. Which is why I think it will take longer than 3 years to develop the right organizational depth to feed a contender and the time to mature the players to where they can play significant roles.

They are bottoming out now, and will get top picks that take less time to develop.

Larkin / Zadina / Lefreniere, might not look so bad in 5 years. Of course Wings might get 4th pick instead. Lottery is a bitch. But adding 1 or 2 top 5 picks to what they have will make a huge difference.

2020 1st/2021 1st/Zadina, is maybe the group that carries the mail in 3 years. With Larkin, Rasmussen, Veleno, Mantha, Bertuzzi etc. as depth that would be quite strong.

 

[Kamiccolo]

They are bottoming out now, and will get top picks that take less time to develop.

Larkin / Zadina / Lefreniere, might not look so bad in 5 years. Of course Wings might get 4th pick instead. Lottery is a *****. But adding 1 or 2 top 5 picks to what they have will make a huge difference.

2020 1st/2021 1st/Zadina, is maybe the group that carries the mail in 3 years. With Larkin, Rasmussen, Veleno, Mantha, Bertuzzi etc. as depth that would be quite strong.

Sadly it's still no promise. Are you getting a Drouin, Bennette, or Reinhart? Or a Draisatl, Eichel, Marner?

 

[TheOtherOne]

Sadly it's still no promise. Are you getting a Drouin, Bennette, or Reinhart? Or a Draisatl, Eichel, Marner?

Of course there are no promises in hockey. You don't get those guys until you get them.

 

[ninetyeight]

Bunch of teams also get stuck in the rebuilding limbo, where they hang around the wildcard spot for years. Not good enough to win in the playoffs, not bad enough to draft high level talent.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sadly it's still no promise. Are you getting a Drouin, Bennette, or Reinhart? Or a Draisatl, Eichel, Marner?

Yeah but what are you gonna do? That’s what rebuilding is.
Look at Leafs before the Marner and Matthews drafts. I honestly think the Wings are in a much better situation comparatively, which means nothing if they can’t land those 1-2 big pieces in the draft and maybe 1-2 big UFA pieces in the coming years.

 

[tom_servo]

So you're saying you have a team in the NHL.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Turnaround in this league is very fast with good management. It’s why a team like Edmonton can stay perennial bottom feeders and a team like Tampa can become a powerhouse quickly.

Took only one post.usually takes 2

 

[LarKing]

Took only one post.usually takes 2

For..?

 

[Kamiccolo]

Yeah but what are you gonna do? That’s what rebuilding is.
Look at Leafs before the Marner and Matthews drafts. I honestly think the Wings are in a much better situation comparatively, which means nothing if they can’t land those 1-2 big pieces in the draft and maybe 1-2 big UFA pieces in the coming years.

Ehh can't agree with that. Year of the Marner draft they had Kessel, JVR, Bozak, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, etc.

I know Wings have Larkin and Mantha but I don't think they have as many pieces. It was an epic collapse in the Marner year and in the Matthews year Kessel was traded and brought in assets like Andersen and Kapanen who are big parts of the team too.

But we will see like always. I make a habit of being wrong.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Ehh can't agree with that. Year of the Marner draft they had Kessel, JVR, Bozak, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, etc.

I know Wings have Larkin and Mantha but I don't think they have as many pieces. It was an epic collapse in the Marner year and in the Matthews year Kessel was traded and brought in assets like Andersen and Kapanen who are big parts of the team too.

But we will see like always. I make a habit of being wrong.

Remember that was a time when people thought the Leafs were completely doomed long-term and Morgan Rielly was a ~30 point d-man.

Larkin, Mantha, Zadina, Hronek, Bertuzzi, Fabbri is quite easily a better group to build around if you take a snapshot in time right now and compare it with 2015 Leafs. Add Athanasiou, Seider, Veleno, Rasmussen, Cholowski, McIsaac, Berggren etc. to the equation and I think it should start to look obvious that the Wings are in very good shape if/when they add a top ~3 pick or two.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Remember that was a time when people thought the Leafs were completely doomed long-term and Morgan Rielly was a ~30 point d-man.

Larkin, Mantha, Zadina, Hronek, Bertuzzi, Fabbri is quite easily a better group to build around if you take a snapshot in time right now and compare it with 2015 Leafs. Add Athanasiou, Seider, Veleno, Rasmussen, Cholowski, McIsaac, Berggren etc. to the equation and I think it should start to look obvious that the Wings are in very good shape if/when they add a top ~3 pick or two.

Just my experience from watching a rebuild, I wouldn't bet on even half of those names being in the org in 3 years. I think Steve Y will be ruthless and start moving prospects and stuff to fit a vision of what he thinks a team should play like.

That's why it's so hard to project anything because it's hard to even predict what a currently contending team looks like in 3 years, nevermind a team in complete rebuild.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Believe in the Yzerplan. Worked for Tampa.