3 year turnover

[Pavels Dog]

Just my experience from watching a rebuild, I wouldn't bet on even half of those names being in the org in 3 years. I think Steve Y will be ruthless and start moving prospects and stuff to fit a vision of what he thinks a team should play like.

That's why it's so hard to project anything because it's hard to even predict what a currently contending team looks like in 3 years, nevermind a team in complete rebuild.

I would take that bet easy. In fact those roster players I mentioned are basically the only ones I think will be around in 3 years. There's so much for yzerman to change and mold before you start on the upper tier of the young players and prospects.

 

[Krewe]

Some numbers from the added graph:

A top-third / middle-third / bottom-third team has a
62/29/10 % chance of playing in the Finals next year,
67/29/5 % chance of playing in the Finals in two years,
38/33/29 % chance of playing in the Finals in three years.

I think that's a pretty significant indicator that the worst 10ish teams should probably set their sights on 3 years out, while the standings don't matter much for the rest of the league's future chances.

edit: forgot the conversion to %. Numbers don't add to 100 due to rounding.

Maybe I am slightly misunderstanding this.

Do your figures mean there is a 62% chance that at least one of the finalists next year will come from the teams currently in the top third? Or that a team in the top third has a 62% chance. The former makes sense but also does nothing to help predict the future of a current middle/bottom team. The latter (obviously) is impossible but is the way your post can be interpreted.

Also I would be suspect of drawing any real conclusions from this, the sample sizes are too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from

 

[TheOtherOne]

Maybe I am slightly misunderstanding this.

Do your figures mean there is a 62% chance that at least one of the finalists next year will come from the teams currently in the top third? Or that a team in the top third has a 62% chance. The former makes sense but also does nothing to help predict the future of a current middle/bottom team. The latter (obviously) is impossible but is the way your post can be interpreted.

Also I would be suspect of drawing any real conclusions from this, the sample sizes are too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from

Your first interpretation is correct.

The most useful and succinct way I can rephrase it is: if you are currently a bottom 3rd team, you probably won't be in the finals for the next two years, but after that you have as good a chance as anyone.

Or to be slightly more subjective: if you are currently at rock bottom, aim to end your rebuild in 3 years.