Post-Game Talk: #3 | Flyers at Lightning | October 18, 2022 | 7pm | Win 3-2

[deadhead]

(Per NST) At 5v5 in this game, the team allowed 4.00 xGA/60, while only generating xGF/60 of 2.36. Additionally, they allowed HDCA/60 of 22.17, while generating only 11.67 HDCF/60. **I converted the raw numbers to per 60 for easier evaluation.**

Both of the xGA and HDCA would lead the league last year (obviously short sample size, and you don't play 82 games against the TBL, but it just shows you how bad they were defensively).

Both of the xGF and HDCF from last night would put the team right around 20th place for last year.

Now, I'm not going to excoriate this team based on one game, particularly because by the eye test I think they do have better structure, particularly on the forecheck, but so far the results are not any better than last year. I don't see a marked improvement in the D zone, either. I just don't. There are still huge redflags in this dataset, just like there were last year.

Additionally, through these three games Carter Hart has been putting up All-Star goalie numbers. Obviously short sample as well. But, he is bailing out the Flyers left and right. He's not going to be putting up stats like that the whole season. He will regress somewhat. You just hope that at that point the Flyers have improved their ability to score goals, and prevent scoring chances.

Reality check, they played without Couts, Atkinson, Tippett and Risto, that meant playing Seeler, MacEwen, J Cates.
Against TB on the road, before the game people were predicting a blow out.

Hart is playing well, but you're also not seeing the second chances you saw the last couple years, they're more active challenging shooters and clearing the porch. Maybe Torts historically has great goaltenders b/c his teams make life easier on goaltenders? Hart hasn't had to make the spectacular saves we saw in his first couple seasons.

I don't expect this team to look cohesive until December, right now they're just learning to play together with a lot of inexperienced players and players playing out of position. 3-0 is a mirage, but the "hard to play against" is for real (not fighting, but challenging the puck all over the ice). They forced a lot of turnovers but struggled to turn them into offensive opportunities.

As far as rebuilding, "burn it down to the ground" often fails, see Buffalo, NJ has made the playoffs once in a decade, and so on - you have to get very lucky to land a McDavid or McKinnon or to have Makar fall into your lap. Toronto has more stars than any other team and can't get out of the 1st rd.

An alternative strategy is to focus on youth and maximize their talent, it's not tanking for tanking sake, but avoiding patches and short-term moves and focusing on gradually increasing the talent base. Stay out of free agency, add talent on the margin, keep auditioning prospects and keep the ones that pan out. You may lose more in the short-run, but you're not embracing losing and creating a toxic culture.

 

[Striiker]

You don't see a difference in defensive positioning or puck support? I mean, heaven forbid they get outplayed by Tampa. They're working harder and smarter, Hart has been good ...but I'll bet if you asked him, he'd tell you he's having an easier time seeing the puck. They still could be terrible, but they haven't been yet this season.

Wrong.

They've been terrible in all three games. Both the eye test and stats show this inarguable fact.

 

[Curufinwe]

Playing without Risto was a bonus.

 

[mr4tno]

there's fa, there's trades, what's so bad about buying talent if there's there? you might pry mcdavid, matthews, pasta like why does it have to be from the draft when the odds are against you?

Because buying talent nets you contracts like JVR, Hayes and Couturier (even though he was not bought, this is the deal he would have received if he went elsewhere). How do you think the Gaudreau contrct is going to look in a couple of years

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Special teams along with goaltending has been good so far. They are still getting caved 5 on 5 and it will eventually catch up to them.
I don’t think they will be as bad as last year even with the poor 5 on 5 play.

 

[deadhead]

Not for Sanheim, he looked better with Risto than he has this season, actually he fell off last season without Risto at the end.
Sometimes chemistry is a funny thing.

Torts doesn't "squeeze out wins," that was Hakstol with a 85-90 point team that he got to the playoffs twice - people fool themselves, looking at a first line of G - Couts - Voracek, ignoring the AHL+ bottom six, bottom three on those teams. Now you can make a case that playing a conservative system that won games merely protected mediocre players, meant worst draft position, and hurt the team in the long run. But Hakstol squeezed out more wins than that team should have had, given the mediocre overall talent.

Torts pushes players, and the ones who respond are better players, and that's why his teams win. We can see already that this scheme is highly aggressive, there's no shell, there's no play it safe on the forecheck, etc. He's already asking TK to do more, he's going to ride Frost b/c he wants him to be a two way 2C, not a one dimensional scorer who can't be trusted in close games. He's going to make Farabee and N Cates key players going forward, he's giving Allison a major role.

After 3 games (5x5 TOI): JVR, Allison, Farabee, Hayes, Cates, TK, Frost, Laughton, Laczynski.
PP: TDA, JVR, Hayes, TK, Farabee
PK: Farabee, Cates, Laughton, TK, Hayes; Provorov, Sanheim, TDA, Braun

And let's get something straight, I haven't read anything from anyone who suggests that the 3-0 start is because they're a good team, rather, it's the product of playing harder and smarter, and overcoming some obvious talent limitations, especially with 4 starters out on a thin team (Ellis doesn't qualify anymore, he's officially a "corpse").

To me, the time to judge this team is in January, when they have some players back and time to jell and to separate the prospects from the imposters. This isn't going to be an overnight turnaround, this season is about laying the foundation, it'll take a few seasons to build upon that.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Reality check, they played without Couts, Atkinson, Tippett and Risto, that meant playing Seeler, MacEwen, J Cates.
Against TB on the road, before the game people were predicting a blow out.

Hart is playing well, but you're also not seeing the second chances you saw the last couple years, they're more active challenging shooters and clearing the porch. Maybe Torts historically has great goaltenders b/c his teams make life easier on goaltenders? Hart hasn't had to make the spectacular saves we saw in his first couple seasons.

I don't expect this team to look cohesive until December, right now they're just learning to play together with a lot of inexperienced players and players playing out of position. 3-0 is a mirage, but the "hard to play against" is for real (not fighting, but challenging the puck all over the ice). They forced a lot of turnovers but struggled to turn them into offensive opportunities.

As far as rebuilding, "burn it down to the ground" often fails, see Buffalo, NJ has made the playoffs once in a decade, and so on - you have to get very lucky to land a McDavid or McKinnon or to have Makar fall into your lap. Toronto has more stars than any other team and can't get out of the 1st rd.

An alternative strategy is to focus on youth and maximize their talent, it's not tanking for tanking sake, but avoiding patches and short-term moves and focusing on gradually increasing the talent base. Stay out of free agency, add talent on the margin, keep auditioning prospects and keep the ones that pan out. You may lose more in the short-run, but you're not embracing losing and creating a toxic culture.

Why do you keep listing Ristolainen as a loss? Him being out helps the team a ton.

 

[Curufinwe]

Not for Sanheim, he looked better with Risto than he has this season, actually he fell off last season without Risto at the end.

No he hasn't, and no he didn't.

Even you can't be so delusional as to think that Ristolainen coming back will make the Flyers a better possession team.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Not fully rebuilding is a fools errand.

We have seen this before many times, but I expect nothing less from a front office that’s more concerned about protecting their own jobs, and a long lost identity - than actually building a modern, exciting contender.

At 31, I can wait for a few of the bastards to die out/retire. Good riddance.

 

[deadhead]

With the lottery, tanking doesn't even work, last year we should have picked 4th.

You can rebuild without tanking, you gradually move out your veteran contracts, and use the cap money to sweeten trades to add assets, trade for RFAs from cap strapped teams, and bargain basement acquisitions in FA. Keep building the overall talent base until you're competitive, and hope to get lucky with an Aho, Pastrnak or Guentzel.

Where teams screw up is when they become competitive after 2-3 years, they overreact, try to finish the job in free agency, load up on some bad contracts for over 30 players (JG in 2-3 years) and flounder before the inevitable declne. What they should do is continue the rebuild until they're a top 8 team, then use FA strategically and avoid TDL trades like the plague.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I don't think there's anything more entertaining on this board than when "fans" screech and cry that not everyone is thrilled with a game where a terrible Flyers team got absolutely dominated but got a fluke underserved/unsustainable win, which will only hurt the teams present and future.

cue "this is fine" flaming room picture here....

 

[Beef Invictus]

With the lottery, tanking doesn't even work, last year we should have picked 4th.

You can rebuild without tanking, you gradually move out your veteran contracts, and use the cap money to sweeten trades to add assets, trade for RFAs from cap strapped teams, and bargain basement acquisitions in FA. Keep building the overall talent base until you're competitive, and hope to get lucky with an Aho, Pastrnak or Guentzel.

Where teams screw up is when they become competitive after 2-3 years, they overreact, try to finish the job in free agency, load up on some bad contracts for over 30 players (JG in 2-3 years) and flounder before the inevitable declne. What they should do is continue the rebuild until they're a top 8 team, then use FA strategically and avoid TDL trades like the plague.

A competently managed team can rebuild without tanking. The Flyers are as far from "competently managed" as it gets. Go ask Minnesota about Fletcher's ability to build a team.

 

[FlyerNutter]

A competently managed team can rebuild without tanking. The Flyers are as far from "competently managed" as it gets. Go ask Minnesota about Fletcher's ability to build a team.

Imagine “tanking” only takes one year.

 

[deadhead]

A competently managed team can rebuild without tanking. The Flyers are as far from "competently managed" as it gets. Go ask Minnesota about Fletcher's ability to build a team.

He built a solid team in Minnesota, he took over an 89 point team in 2009, with limited talent:
Kiovu (25), Brunette (35), Bouchard (24), Nolan (36), Miettinen (28), Belanger (31) were the top forwards,
Johnsson (32), Burns (23), Zidickly (31), Schultz (26) the top D-men
Sheppard (20), Clutterbuck (21), Pouliot (22), Gillies (19) your "youth" movement.

3 years missing the playoffs, then 6 straight PO appearances, including 3 seasons with 100+ points.
He made two bad trades with Leddy and Burns his first year, then the only bad moves were TDL trades, with an owner who wanted to "win now" (sound familiar?).

 

[Curufinwe]

What Fletcher did in Minnesota is as relevant as Hextall. There's four years now of Fletcher in Philly to judge him by.

 

[Beef Invictus]

He built a solid team in Minnesota, he took over an 89 point team in 2009, with limited talent:
Kiovu (25), Brunette (35), Bouchard (24), Nolan (36), Miettinen (28), Belanger (31) were the top forwards,
Johnsson (32), Burns (23), Zidickly (31), Schultz (26) the top D-men
Sheppard (20), Clutterbuck (21), Pouliot (22), Gillies (19) your "youth" movement.

3 years missing the playoffs, then 6 straight PO appearances, including 3 seasons with 100+ points.
He made two bad trades with Leddy and Burns his first year, then the only bad moves were TDL trades, with an owner who wanted to "win now" (sound familiar?).

He built a nothing team that went nowhere. With a mountain of money and resources, he consistently was out-GMed by Poile, who had none of those benefits.

He was poor there. He is poor here.

 

[freakydallas13]

Because MacEwen took two awful penalties and got caved in at ES, of course. That's just how Accountability works.

Zack MacEwen

C

13:30

10

17

37.04

Morgan Frost

C

12:19

15

10

60.00

Meritocracy.

 

[freakydallas13]

But there have been a lot of positives already this season, & that’s what I want to see. I’ll let you & the haters harp on the negatives.

Just like the last 2 seasons.

 

[freakydallas13]

Reality check, they played without Couts, Atkinson, Tippett and Risto, that meant playing Seeler, MacEwen, J Cates.
Against TB on the road, before the game people were predicting a blow out.

Hart is playing well, but you're also not seeing the second chances you saw the last couple years, they're more active challenging shooters and clearing the porch. Maybe Torts historically has great goaltenders b/c his teams make life easier on goaltenders? Hart hasn't had to make the spectacular saves we saw in his first couple seasons.

I don't expect this team to look cohesive until December, right now they're just learning to play together with a lot of inexperienced players and players playing out of position. 3-0 is a mirage, but the "hard to play against" is for real (not fighting, but challenging the puck all over the ice). They forced a lot of turnovers but struggled to turn them into offensive opportunities.

As far as rebuilding, "burn it down to the ground" often fails, see Buffalo, NJ has made the playoffs once in a decade, and so on - you have to get very lucky to land a McDavid or McKinnon or to have Makar fall into your lap. Toronto has more stars than any other team and can't get out of the 1st rd.

An alternative strategy is to focus on youth and maximize their talent, it's not tanking for tanking sake, but avoiding patches and short-term moves and focusing on gradually increasing the talent base. Stay out of free agency, add talent on the margin, keep auditioning prospects and keep the ones that pan out. You may lose more in the short-run, but you're not embracing losing and creating a toxic culture.

Better not do a full rebuild, or else we could be as bad as 2 teams that finished ahead of the Flyers in the standings last year.

 

[VladDrag]

Reality check, they played without Couts, Atkinson, Tippett and Risto, that meant playing Seeler, MacEwen, J Cates.
Against TB on the road, before the game people were predicting a blow out.

I know they said they played TBL, I even said so in my post, but they were out played, and out chanced. It will catch up with them.

Hart is playing well, but you're also not seeing the second chances you saw the last couple years, they're more active challenging shooters and clearing the porch. Maybe Torts historically has great goaltenders b/c his teams make life easier on goaltenders? Hart hasn't had to make the spectacular saves we saw in his first couple seasons.

I don't know, I'm not really seeing a marked improvement on the defensive side of the puck. The gaffs are still there, and the blue line is like an open door right now. Lots of rush chances against. Hart has xGA/60 and HDCA/60 ranks him 34 of 38 goalies who have played 2 games. His rebound shots against ranks him 35 of 38. And, I know its a small sample size, but those are describing his chances against during this short season. Hart has made a couple of very good saves over these 3 games. I'm talking about what the stats are saying in the early going of the season. I'm not saying it will continue this way, either.

I don't expect this team to look cohesive until December, right now they're just learning to play together with a lot of inexperienced players and players playing out of position. 3-0 is a mirage, but the "hard to play against" is for real (not fighting, but challenging the puck all over the ice). They forced a lot of turnovers but struggled to turn them into offensive opportunities.

I do expect a better performance as the season progresses as well. I do think Torts can get the team buying in; clearly they didn't buy into AV at all. But the bolded is something that's going to be a problem for them all year, I expect. They just don't have the roster make up to consistently generate chances. Yes, Aktinson and Coots (if he can return somewhat healthy) may help in that regard, but I don't think it will be enough.

 

[FlyersFanSinceBirth]

After seeing people cry that not everyone is ecstatic about the start of this year, I thought it'd be fun to go back and check out the PGT from game #3 of last season.

And who coulda guessed that people were getting overly excited by fluke wins, just like this year???

How'd that one turn out for us? Pretty good, right?

Here's some quotes, without names. The point isn't to call out individuals, it's to remind people how worthless a three game sample of underserved wins are.

I'm laughing less at the people that enjoyed watching the Flyers win a few games and laughing more at the person that lets other people's enjoyment upset them to the point that they went back a year to find quotes.

 

[deadhead]

I do expect a better performance as the season progresses as well. I do think Torts can get the team buying in; clearly they didn't buy into AV at all. But the bolded is something that's going to be a problem for them all year, I expect. They just don't have the roster make up to consistently generate chances. Yes, Aktinson and Coots (if he can return somewhat healthy) may help in that regard, but I don't think it will be enough.

I don't think anyone expects this to be a good team this season, I stick to my 75-80 point prediction.

I just want to see improvement, especially young players like Frost, TK, Cates, Tippett, Zamula, etc.

If you can't land an elite player or two, then you have to land enough good players for 3 lines and 2 pairs that are above average for their slot. This season is about identifying and developing those players.

 

[JXC]

I will never understand why some people are so upset that other people enjoy watching their favorite team win. I don't expect them to win a lot this season. So I'm going to enjoy the wins they do get. If you choose to actively watch your favorite team and get upset any time they win, you deserve the misery.

Hivemind Anthem

I'm laughing less at the people that enjoyed watching the Flyers win a few games and laughing more at the person that lets other people's enjoyment upset them to the point that they went back a year to find quotes.

Literally…

 

[JXC]

I don't think anyone expects this to be a good team this season, I stick to my 75-80 point prediction.

I just want to see improvement, especially young players like Frost, TK, Cates, Tippett, Zamula, etc.

If you can't land an elite player or two, then you have to land enough good players for 3 lines and 2 pairs that are above average for their slot. This season is about identifying and developing those players.

Already seeing it with those guys, which is kind of cool.

 

[Adtar02]

Hes

The broadcast mentioned at least 3 times that Torts said Cates was by far the best player during training camp and preseason.

They're obsessed with him.

not a bad player. Just not a super star. And I fear the hype will set unrealistic expectations